OK ... what is Tesla trying to do now?

[AgentScarn7]

last 5

Thank you! I ordered on 10/15 and have 59,501. A lot of orders!

 

[jonquiljo]

Both of our cars were pretty right on in the delivery window, in fact maybe a few days before. And that was before all of this year’s Model 3 ramp up.

The way I see it is things are being modified at the factory as time goes on, apart from part updates. Overseas vehicles maybe be produced with right side steering wheels for some countries so will require some time to change the production line when going back to left side. They might have more orders overseas they want to get out so deciding to run the line longer. Maybe overseas government action is requiring something different. Now that China is soon to be in production some of those US orders could be switched overseas. They are getting ready for Model Y and maybe that’s somehow affecting things. Maybe there’s a delay in receiving a part or paint color for a particular trim. Maybe they need to take advantage of some volume pricing on transport with in a period of time. Maybe they need to shut down for line improvements or holiday time.

Do not understand why people seem to come up with conspiracy theories and saying Tesla is making stuff up or lying. They’ve been doing this for a number of years now and are focused on improving production and delivering cars. Yes, the Model 3 especially is in hot demand and people are anxious about getting one but maybe a chill pill is in order.

Not a conspiracy theory at all. Tesla never seems to have accurate answers about anything. I’m just suggesting that - as usual - their website says a lot of BS. We should all wait patiently, but when we will all get our cars is really not clear - and will obviously remain that way.

The best way to deal with deliveries is to take all information lightly.

 

[Balaji]

Thank you! I ordered on 10/15 and have 59,501. A lot of orders!

mine was ordered on 10/16- 64630
Wow 5000 orders a day ... I did order at 11 Pm though ( est)

 

[JesusQuintana]

Placed order on 10/4, 35724

 

[Someguy4747]

Reservation numbers are also issued for used Tesla’s and orders that may get canceled. This should be used as a loose estimate for new car orders at best.

 

[Kilotango74]

They promised me 2 weeks and it actually took almost 7, so these are just more realistic estimates.

“Promised” you?! Lol. Guess they had their fingers crossed behind their back, should have checked that dude.

 

[jonquiljo]

Of course a loose estimate. We don’t have all the numbers. Reservation numbers are probably issued for all Teslas, all models, all countries.

There are a lot of Teslas being ordered. Models S and X are just a fraction of those. Total orders seem to average 2500 cars a day. If even 1000/day of these are N American Model 3’s, Tesla will just be able to keep up with orders when they start production for N America. Have they started yet?

It just makes no sense for delivery estimates (on website) to be going down. All this reinforces is the need to dig in and wait. Demand for Teslas is greater than ever.

 

[ewoodrick]

Tesla never ceases to amaze me. Looking at their ordering site today, I now see that Model 3’s are shown as “5-9 weeks for delivery” for SR+ and AWD trims and “7-9 weeks for delivery” for Performance trims. Yesterday it read “6-10 weeks” and “8-10 weeks respectively. This makes absolutely no sense!

Tesla is clearly trying to show that our positions in the queue are advancing (whether real or hype) - the rationale being wait a week, and 6-10 weeks advances to 5-9 weeks. Of course this conveniently still projects all deliveries in Q4.

But, this does not take into account that orders (lots and lots of them) are being placed all the time. If Tesla can keep up with N. American orders, ordering a week later should give the same time to delivery a week later. 6-8 weeks should be 6-8 weeks a week later - at best. These numbers are an “if you ordered now” projection. The only way that could change is if Tesla got no orders in the last week. Hardly true! The “weeks until delivery” time on the website supposedly applies to orders places now.

I guess this makes me wonder if all these website numbers are just artificial at best. If so, this time next week will show delivery windows of 4-8 weeks and 6-8 weeks.

As has been published in a number of locations, Tesla is focusing on international deliveries for a little bit. So most cars will be getting on boats instead of trains and trucks for a little bit.

 

[OCR1]

The secret to being a happy Tesla customer:

1) Never believe anything you read on their website.
2) Never believe anything a Tesla rep tells you.
3) Don’t expect replies to emails or voicemails. And don’t expect anyone to answer their phone.
4) Don’t take delivery of a vehicle that requires any paint, scratch or dent repairs.
5) Don’t be surprised if the delivery experience goes poorly.
6) Accept the fact that you will have an amazing car once you complete the delivery process and will soon forget about rules #1-5.

 

[Tessaract]

Was about to say that.

Color has to be the last step, otherwise there's a great risk of damage to paint/finish. And if videos I saw from a domestic plant several years ago is an indication, painting is not done on the line per se. The cars go into a separate chamber where individual colors are applied. It could be they do several batches of the same color and then change. But at the beginning of the line, the cars could end up being any color.

The biggest deciding factor is the trim. This is why the P versions have a different estimate than the others.

It makes ALL the difference, precisely because it's the last step. You don't want to be shooting different colors on each car as they roll off the line - that'd be a logistical nightmare. So everything rolling in while the paint shop is "loaded" for white, let's say, needs to be painted white.

Sure, you can do SR and LR's at the same time, as long as they're all white. And as long as you have all the assembly in place to change up drivetrains and software loads and interior colors and wheels and chargers and batteries all from car to car. If I've got sleds of SR batteries loaded, and then I try to build a LR, I have to change the sled.

If I've got trays of 32a chargers loaded, but then an LR comes in, I've got to use a 48a charger instead.

If I've got all my black door panels, dashboard, seats, and trim loaded, and then a vehicle comes in that needs a white interior, I've got to reload all of that.

There's not much free room at Fremont; pretty tight quarters. So it's not like they're going to have multiple lines doing interiors, for example. So you run a batch of SRs, with white interiors, and white exteriors. Then, SR with black interiors and white exteriors. Then, LR with black interiors and white exteriors, depending on my parts stocks. So on and so forth.

It's a gigantic logistical dance, as parts are available and delivered, you assemble and build everything you possibly can with the minimal of changes needed.

Painting is definitely NOT the last step. Not even close. Just check out pictures of cars on the assembly line. Painting actually occurs after the sheet metal body has been completely assembled/glued/welded (except for doors and hoods) but before anything else is installed. The "bodies in white" (including doors and hoods) are then usually completely immersed in a primer bath, dried, painted, dried/cured, and then proceed down the assembly line to mount and install all the other bits and pieces. If you see pictures of workers/robots installing seats, power train, dash, etc. you'll notice that the bodies are already painted at this point.

I don't know if paint colours are batched in the same way that left hand/right hand (for example) is batched. It's entirely possible. Some pictures of the assembly line certainly could lend some support to the "paint is batched" premise, especially the recent GF3 pics. Could be one reason why the selection of colours is being reduced... simplifies the batching logistics.

As for the waiting intervals on the website, I would definitely NOT regard those as a promise, but rather a forecast based on the best information at the moment. In production scheduling/order fulfillment, situations change (orders increase/decrease, delivery of some required parts my be late, etc.), so it's prudent to expect some variation of delivery forecasts.

 

[dmurphy]

Painting is definitely NOT the last step. Not even close. Just check out pictures of cars on the assembly line. Painting actually occurs after the sheet metal body has been completely assembled/glued/welded (except for doors and hoods) but before anything else is installed. The "bodies in white" (including doors and hoods) are then usually completely immersed in a primer bath, dried, painted, dried/cured, and then proceed down the assembly line to mount and install all the other bits and pieces. If you see pictures of workers/robots installing seats, power train, dash, etc. you'll notice that the bodies are already painted at this point.

My apologies; I wasn't clear. It's the last step *for the body in white*, but before the drivetrain mating/interior installation. Sorry if I wasn't clear; not last step for the vehicle, but for the bodies themselves.

You are spot on.

(And yes, I toured Fremont last month so you are 100,000% correct - the bodies are painted before being mated to the drivetrain.). Which makes it all the more urgent for colors to be "batched" - bodies in white are dropped "just in time" to the assembly line; as they're ready they hit the line.

The choreography of everything going on is genuinely amazing to watch!

 

[XLR82XS]

(And yes, I toured Fremont last month so you are 100,000% correct - the bodies are painted before being mated to the drivetrain.). Which makes it all the more urgent for colors to be "batched" - bodies in white are dropped "just in time" to the assembly line; as they're ready they hit the line.

The choreography of everything going on is genuinely amazing to watch!

I have a factory tour in November. It's been years since I've been in a car assembly plant - looking forward to it.

 

[dmurphy]

I have a factory tour in November. It's been years since I've been in a car assembly plant - looking forward to it.

I hope you have a blast!! I got to enjoy it a few weeks ago, and I was surprised just how few workers (relatively speaking) there are. The last factory tour I did was the BMW plant in South Carolina; that was a buzzing beehive relative to Fremont. The automation is impressive!

 

[ivy_]

mine was ordered on 10/16- 64630
Wow 5000 orders a day ... I did order at 11 Pm though ( est)

64770 on 10/17.

 

[Hauler]

74416 oct 19

 

[wariqp3d]

Ordered 10.17 - order number 67681

 

[Balaji]

mine was ordered on 10/16- 64630
Wow 5000 orders a day ... I did order at 11 Pm though ( est)

I see a vin number in source code ??
Am I hallucinating ??

 

[Balaji]

This is what I did

 

[markli]

64770 on 10/17.

What config do you have? I ordered on the 15th still no vin in source code

 

[puppers]

What config do you have? I ordered on the 15th still no vin in source code

Ordered a P3D White/White no FSD on 10/14. No vin either.