Old more Range or New Refresh?

[lpp06]

I've been really struggling with deciding on what to get as my next vehicle:

2021 SR+ base (42k after tax)
2021 SR+ w/FSD (50.5k)
2018 LR RWD w/FSD (46.5k - direct from Tesla) - VIN indicates it's a 2018 Q4 production date

This will be the first EV in our house and we'll be able to charge from home. My daily commute is about 20miles round trip, but we will try to use the car as often as possible. Not many road trips - the most distant spot would be around 300miles one way 4x a year. Although I know I could compromise by buying a new LR AWD, if I'm spending more $, I'd rather have FSD.

So now - I struggle choosing the more expensive FSD option because it has less range, even though it will be the newest version. I've read the "go with the most range" mantra so many times, I think it stuck pretty hard. So now I have a bit of analysis paralysis.


(Side question - how accurate do we think ABetterRoutePlanner is for the new 2021+ models/ranges?)

 

[schmluss]

I went with the SR+ and haven’t had an issue with range. I’m in sales and drive about 50-100 miles per day and have only had to charge outside of home once when I drove from LA to San Diego.

I do however wish that I bought the AWD LR because of the better audio and the performance. I don’t think there is much value in FSD. If you have to pay attention like you are driving why not just drive?

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

If nothing else - do yourself a big favor and go new. Having a 4 YR warranty is a big deal in Tesla-land these days.

Everyone has their preferences, but I'd say get a new AWD performance instead of frittering the money on FSD. I test drove both the AWD and SR + and felt as if the AWD interior was that of a premium car, while the SR would have felt more at home in the Hertz parking lot. Just my .02 of course...

 

[arghx7]

Sr+ base is the best value. You will have some FOMO though. You won’t wonder if you overpaid.

 

[SigNC]

I vote for 2018 RWD with no FSD

 

[lpp06]

If nothing else - do yourself a big favor and go new. Having a 4 YR warranty is a big deal in Tesla-land these days.

Everyone has their preferences, but I'd say get a new AWD performance instead of frittering the money on FSD. I test drove both the AWD and SR + and felt as if the AWD interior was that of a premium car, while the SR would have felt more at home in the Hertz parking lot. Just my .02 of course...

Fortunately a used with 30k miles on it will have 3y/30k mile warranty - so not to much less than a new and hopefully some of those warranty repairs of a new car would have already been done.


Unfortunately AWD performance is around $60k with tax


Surprising that you noticed a difference in the interior - from what I've read the materials are the same with the exception of audio and some footwell lights

 

[Gsxr150]

If you are buying, you can always add FSD later. It's a novelty...don't get too caught up in the hype. Autopilot is plenty for 90% of the time you'd need it.

 

[TMThree]

2018 LR RWD w/FSD (46.5k - direct from Tesla) - VIN indicates it's a 2018 Q4 production date

I paid $47.5k for LR RWD w/ AP. FSD was another $5000. And I got $3750 tax credit back. And that was a 2019 model with 6 miles on it.

You're contemplating a 2 year old used car, and it's only $1000 discounted from what that same config would have cost last year. That's a hella bad deal.


PS: FSD isn't worth it.

 

[Traaapt]

Although it sounds like you've mostly ruled it out, I would the go new 2021 LR over the other options mostly because i don't think FSD is worth it at the moment.

 

[NuTony]

Here's the one HUGE problem I see for fsd (in these parts). Many roads and highways here have center lines and fog lines. The car will not cross solid lines if it is driving down one of those roads and say a police officer pulled someone over and left their car half in the roadway or a garbage truck or a mailman or whatever. The car is going to stop. And make YOU go around it. Because it will not break the "law".

Same problem should someone want to turn left and traffic is flowing over the fog line to continue the fsd will stop instead of crossing the fog line to the right. That sucks. Until that kind of thing is figured out? Autopilot will work almost identical to fsd on the highway just my .02

 

[lpp06]

I paid $47.5k for LR RWD w/ AP. FSD was another $5000. And I got $3750 tax credit back. And that was a 2019 model with 6 miles on it.

You're contemplating a 2 year old used car, and it's only $1000 discounted from what that same config would have cost last year. That's a hella bad deal.


PS: FSD isn't worth it.

Should have specified - that is all in with tax - so about $7k off of your price. Still - maybe not the best deal comparing List vs List - about 17% discount.

Do you say FSD isn't worth it for any specific reason? Like do you not use it that much beyond what AP provides?

 

[OCR1]

Well, you asked for opinions and you are getting a lot of them...

Here’s mine:

Buy a 2021 LR AWD white/black/18” Aeros for $47K and skip FSD. You can always add it later. We have it and never use it. It’s a gimmick. Autopilot is more than enough for 90% of your driving. You give up too much with the SR+ in both range and audio performance and you will regret it, especially if you waste a lot of money on FSD when you could have had the LR model without FSD for about the same price.

 

[geekflyer]

Don't buy SR with FSD, rather spend the money on a LR and add FSD if you don't have the money now (or get the subscription later).

I think buying SR with FSD makes the least sense of all combinations since as many folks explained before: Buying FSD only makes sense if you plan to keep the car long enough for FSD to actually work (plus a few years beyond that for it to pay off vs subscription).

My guts tell me that in a few years SR models will have deprecated more than LR models (in 5 years people will laugh at 2xx range) and you or the person you're selling to won't give a damn about FSD if the car has an unimpressive range at the time. Just a data point: I see lots more unsold used SR models than LR models on craigslist, carvana etc.

It's the equivalent of buying an Iphone SE and adding 200$ worth of software that doesn't transfer to the next iphone (I know ios apps transfer to next device, but FSD doesn't).

 

[lpp06]

Well, you asked for opinions and you are getting a lot of them...

Here’s mine:

Buy a 2021 LR AWD white/black/18” Aeros for $47K and skip FSD. You can always add it later. We have it and never use it. It’s a gimmick. Autopilot is more than enough for 90% of your driving. You give up too much with the SR+ in both range and audio performance and you will regret it, especially if you waste a lot of money on FSD when you could have had the LR model without FSD for about the same price.

The opinions of many are how consensus is built. May revisit the idea of doing what you said - did test drive an AWD - definitely a fun car to whip around without any computers controlling it.

 

[OCR1]

The opinions of many are how consensus is built. May revisit the idea of doing what you said - did test drive an AWD - definitely a fun car to whip around without any computers controlling it.

Yup, there are two reasons why I don’t recommend FSD:

1) It doesn’t work
2) The Model 3 is way too much fun to drive to turn it over to a computer.

I did recently purchase a robotic vacuum and I have no problem at all relinquishing control of the vacuum to a robot. Maybe that’s not a fair comparison.

 

[lpp06]

Don't buy SR with FSD, rather spend the money on a LR and add FSD if you don't have the money now (or get the subscription later).

I think buying SR with FSD makes the least sense of all combinations since as many folks explained before: Buying FSD only makes sense if you plan to keep the car long enough for FSD to actually work (plus a few years beyond that for it to pay off vs subscription).

My guts tell me that in a few years SR models will have deprecated more than LR models (in 5 years people will laugh at 2xx range) and you or the person you're selling to won't give a damn about FSD if the car has an unimpressive range at the time. Just a data point: I see lots more unsold used SR models than LR models on craigslist, carvana etc.

It's the equivalent of buying an Iphone SE and adding 200$ worth of software that doesn't transfer to the next iphone (I know ios apps transfer to next device, but FSD doesn't).

Greet analogy...makes a lot of sense - can't ever add hardware. I definitely intend to have it for a long while.

I always wonder what the subscription will cost in 3 years time when it may be reasonable to expect the functionality may come to fruition. If this is the case, ~$250/mo is the breakeven point compared to buying it outright.

 

[jjrandorin]

Well, you asked for opinions and you are getting a lot of them...

Here’s mine:

Buy a 2021 LR AWD white/black/18” Aeros for $47K and skip FSD. You can always add it later. We have it and never use it. It’s a gimmick. Autopilot is more than enough for 90% of your driving. You give up too much with the SR+ in both range and audio performance and you will regret it, especially if you waste a lot of money on FSD when you could have had the LR model without FSD for about the same price.

I would click "love" 5 more times on this post if I could, but it only lets me do it once. Also, I happen to be a person who has FSD, and likes it for the few times I actually use it. My model 3P is too fun to drive to use it unless I am in traffic.

I also agree that the the SR/SR+ with FSD happens to be the worst config to me. This is especially true because FSD can be added later, and likely will have some sort of subscription later.

Again, as a note to OP, this is coming from someone (me) who has FSD, is not sorry I bought it and would buy it again... however if I was trying to reduce the price of the car, FSD is the absolute first option that should be cut.

Just like people generally dont say "I wish my TV was smaller", people dont generally say "I wish my electric car had less range", but they say the opposite all the time.

Generally, when I (or someone else) says this, plenty of SR+ owners start chiming in about carrying around two motors, or that the range of their car is fine, and "you dont drive that far anyway so why spend the extra money". Ditch the FSD and get an new AWD model 3. Even better if you like it in white (free color) with black interior (free interior).

 

[geekflyer]

I always wonder what the subscription will cost in 3 years time when it may be reasonable to expect the functionality may come to fruition. If this is the case, ~$250/mo is the breakeven point compared to buying it outright.

I guess it's hard to tell right now, but I doubt the FSD subscription would cost as much as ~250/mo, mostly because at that price level only very few people would buy it (unless you wanna buy it as a luxury item) and Tesla probably wants to find a price level at which 50% of customers book it eventually.
My guess it's going to be between 100-200 USD, may start in the upper 200 USD next year, but I think over time (and in 3 years) it will come down because it won't be as novel anymore.
My pricing expectations above hold true for personal use at least.
I think it's very possible that Tesla charges a higher price for commercial use of FSD as a robo-taxi and eventually just operates robo-taxis by itself instead of allowing the software to be used by "foreign" robo taxi companies, but as someone who works in the space I doubt that the current M3 (esp not the SR one) will ever be profitable or competitive for commercial use as a robo taxi (range, durability of batteries, durability of seats, how to handle cleaning etc. is a concern).

Also fyi, I just ordered a M3 LR AWD with FSD, but even myself was contemplating whether it really makes sense to pay FSD now or wait for the subscription. At the end I went for it, since I can afford paying for it and I'm okay paying a little bit of early adopter premium (and I didn't really wanna wait until the subscription is available), but if I was on a budget I def wouldn't have booked it now.

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

Fortunately a used with 30k miles on it will have 3y/30k mile warranty - so not to much less than a new and hopefully some of those warranty repairs of a new car would have already been done.


Unfortunately AWD performance is around $60k with tax


Surprising that you noticed a difference in the interior - from what I've read the materials are the same with the exception of audio and some footwell lights

I stepped into both interior levels -- "partial premium" and "premium" - and just had that initial impression. Reading my previous post... it was my bad. I had meant to suggest the long range, not the AWD performance, based on a 50K budget range.

 

[TMThree]

Do you say FSD isn't worth it for any specific reason? Like do you not use it that much beyond what AP provides?

There would be value in a FSD that works without you in the car. You can ride share your vehicle with your wife or other family members. But FSD value would be just under the cost of you buying a used second vehicle for that purpose.

FSD for ride sharing.... that's garbage. People are going to trash the car when no one is inside to babysit. By the time this happens, there will be multiple companies with autonomous vehicles on the road (there's already some in the US right now) which will create competition and price drops.

FSD that you actually get, it doesn't do either of the above two items. It will make turns and change lanes for you. What's the gain for that option?

Consider this:

1. You're driving long distance. You can use AP that comes with your car to make the trip easier. If someone is slow, you can manually go around them and then resume AP. AP has to be monitored at all times, the car can and has run into stopped vehicles and obstructions on the road. If it can't drive straight without crashing into things, how safe do you feel it is for changing lanes and taking exits at proper speeds without running into anything?

2. Imagine someone said they'd discount your tesla by $8000 (or $10000) if all you had to do was change lanes on your own. Would you take that deal?

FSD is cool, but it's a gimmick for the foreseeable future. It also can't be transferred. So the older your car is, the less use you'll get from it (as a vehicle has a limited lifespan).

By the time FSD is doing what you think it should, there will be multiple hardware revisions and additional features your vehicle lacks. For example, the sonar range on Teslas are going to be doubled soon. Your Tesla won't get that.