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Ontario’s power glut means possible nuclear plant shutdowns

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Doug_G

Lead Moderator
Global Moderator
Apr 2, 2010
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Ottawa, Canada
Ontario's power glut means possible nuclear plant shutdowns

For at least eight hours Monday, Ontario is once again forecast to produce more electricity than it consumes, and the recurring glut has one top energy executive warning of temporary nuclear power plant shutdowns.

“We have largely been able to avoid nuclear shutdowns to deal with the (surplus) conditions but this may not be the case in the near future,” Paul Murphy, head of the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), recently told an industry gathering.

In some cases, “negative pricing” is required. Ontario electricity producers shelled out $35 million in the first six months of last year alone to get neighbouring jurisdictions to take surplus power, up sharply from the same period in 2010, when negative pricing amounted to $4.2 million.

Seasonally, the situation typically worsens in spring and fall, when furnaces and air conditioners are turned off, and spring runoff forces hydro facilities to “spill” the water rather than store it for peak periods.

Additional factors will be the return to service of two refurbished reactors at the Bruce generation station near Kincardine and the increasing quantities of renewable energy coming on to the grid under Ontario’s Green Energy Act.

Okay, everyone, get your EVs charging!
 
But you're both right. Rates in Ontario include capital recovery on the nukes build decades ago, because those investments were made under the regulated regime. The surplus power is being sold to the adjoining grids (New York and Midwest) at cheap-o prices, driving down wholesale prices there. There's a fair bit of discussion currently about setting an optimal export tariff; I won't comment on that because my staff is doing the analysis.
 
The retail rate? Yes. Too often utilities believe that they must charge all of the "fixed adders" across all hours. PG&E, for example, charges the same for transmission and distribution regardless of time of day, even on the time-of-day rate. That's not sound; it's far better to allocate those charges to high-demand hours and create more gap between on- and off-peak usage.
 
Yes, I'm very disappointed in the new TOU rates.

Originally we paid 7.5 cents per kWh above 600 kWh usage (plus taxes, delivery, regulatory, debt retirement => 13 cents).

Now the off-peak prices went down to 6.2 cents. Woo hoo.

Mid-peak is 9.2 cents, and on-peak is 10.8 cents. Ouch!

The net result is a massive electricity price increase. Even if by some miracle demand shifted enough to completely level out usage, it would still result in a 8% increase in rates, and that is extremely unlikely. The peak rates are 44% higher.

Luckily I do almost all of my charging late at night so I'll probably save $3 a month.
 
Interesting. So if you charge off peak you'll save a whole $3 based on TOU rates. Clearly that is an adequate incentive to shift all of the EV charging to the wee night hours. :tongue:

Let me clarify. I'll save $3 on EV charging compared to before the TOU rates were introduced.

Peak EV rates will be 4 cents more expensive. I'll be saving $9 or $10 a month by charging at night instead of on-peak.
 
The pricing anomalies make the case for a full flow through of market pricing (including the negative prices that Ontario regularly exports power at) all the more compelling. Such pricing would kick start the market for more effective demand management and storage technologies. Query if this could be accomplished through the existing TOU meter technology in Ontario?
 
Domestic rates include a component called the "Global Adjustment". This is essentially a "bucket" where certain provincial costs are "socialized". Things like higher than market rates paid to certain legacy generators, the exorbitant rates paid under the FIT and microFIT programs for renewable energy, the provincial conservation programs and such. Anyone remember a couple of gas plants that got cancelled for political reasons? Global Adjustment. Large consumers pay market pricing plus Global Adjustment whereas smaller consumers (residential, small commercial) pay regulated rates that include an average cost of power and include the Global Adjustment component. Imports and exports are based on the market cost of power only which can go low (sometimes negative for an hour or two) but can also go high. The fact is, when we have a surplus of power, it's likely that our neighbors do too, so the market is going to push the price down. I honestly don't see Ontario shutting down baseload nukes for anything other than scheduled maintenance.
 
Yes, I'm very disappointed in the new TOU rates.

Originally we paid 7.5 cents per kWh above 600 kWh usage (plus taxes, delivery, regulatory, debt retirement => 13 cents).

Now the off-peak prices went down to 6.2 cents. Woo hoo.

Mid-peak is 9.2 cents, and on-peak is 10.8 cents. Ouch!

The net result is a massive electricity price increase. Even if by some miracle demand shifted enough to completely level out usage, it would still result in a 8% increase in rates, and that is extremely unlikely. The peak rates are 44% higher.

Luckily I do almost all of my charging late at night so I'll probably save $3 a month.

What are the off, mid and on times? Here peak is M-F 7am-8pm, (weekends and actual holidays are off peak). (Shoulder is 12pm-4pm, but my TOU supply treats shoulder as peak). We're probably around 68% off-peak with some peak shaving, and we'd have a higher percentage but we hang dry clothes. Oil rather than electric heat though. 68% off peak compared to 32% on peak under your rules would be 7.672 cents, or a 2.29% increase.
 
What are the off, mid and on times? Here peak is M-F 7am-8pm, (weekends and actual holidays are off peak). (Shoulder is 12pm-4pm, but my TOU supply treats shoulder as peak). We're probably around 68% off-peak with some peak shaving, and we'd have a higher percentage but we hang dry clothes. Oil rather than electric heat though. 68% off peak compared to 32% on peak under your rules would be 7.672 cents, or a 2.29% increase.

Explained here. Note that these prices are the non loss adjusted commodity price only and do not include volumetric delivery and regulatory charges nor taxes.