OPEC bashes prospects for electric cars

[Drucifer]

In related news:
Blockbuster predicts that Netflix will have only 6% of the media rental market in 25 years
Blackberry predicts that Apple/Andriod will have only 6% of the smartphone market in 25 years.
Polaroid predicts that digital photography will have only 6% of the photo market in 25 years.
K Mart predicts that Wal Mart will have only 6% of the low cost / big box general retail market in 25 years.
Waldenbooks predicts that Amazon will have only 6% of the print media retail market in 25 years.
...

 

[Ampster]

Thirty five years ago the United Arab Emirates predicted their oil reserves would be depleted in 20 years. They began diversifying their economies in anticipation. The modern day Dubai and other Emirates are examples of those strategies. Optimism may be the only thing holding OPEC together. They really need a plan B.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Warning: If you are a supporter of Tesla, electric cars and alternative-energy vehicles, this report will upset you.
OPEC is predicting that 94% of cars on the road will still be powered by oil-based fuels in 2040.

OPEC bashes prospects for electric cars - Dec. 23, 2015

Well said here IMO:

All this is to say that the OPEC prediction is not simply a case of biases leading to slightly different perspectives. Instead, it's either one of two things:

1) A blatant case of willful denial
2) An open admission that OPEC believes the Paris agreement to be for show only

Of course, one other possibility does exist I suppose—and that's that 94 percent of cars will indeed still be fossil fuel powered by 2040. We'll just have very few of them. (I can't think of anything that would make Lloyd happier.) Oh, but wait. The report also claims that the global fleet will consume 17 percent more oil than it does now.

That just has to be poppycock. Or a warning sign that we're in for very serious trouble.

http://www.treehugger.com/fossil-fuels/opec-pretends-paris-didnt-happen-predicts-oil-will-dominate-2040.html?utm_content=buffera41b0&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[Bangor Bob]

you are correct, the entities that profit the most from consumption of petroleum products is governments.

Governments are also starting to realize the costs, fortunately. Slowly, incrementally, unevenly... But starting at long last...

 

[Brightonuk]

Just Saying

 

[Ktowntslafan]

@Brightonuk

Love it!

- - - Updated - - -

You are correct with one major omission. Tax policy determines behavior as much as anything.

Agreed-and this is where BIG OIL will spend their money. Politicians do not always represent the will of the people. This is the Achilles heal to COP21 agreement in Paris.

 

[Cebe]

What's the math here? We're over 1 billion passenger cars, so add all the vehicles, double it (OPEC assumption #1) and say we're talking about 5 billion vehicles. 6% of that is 180 million. Over 25 years, that's ~7 million purely electric cars per year. I don't know what the mix of old and new vehicles is mean to be in 2040 (OPEC assumption #2), because if they're assuming that nothing will come of the road in the next 25 years and we will just double the number, then if every single vehicle sold from now on, we'd still only be able to hit 50%. I'm sure that's not their assumption, but one of the pieces missing is the average age of the vehicle.

In other words, I'd like to see their assumptions and the computation. Otherwise it's hard to shoot a hole in their argument, outside of the "they're biased, so this can't be right". And I'm sure they're biased, and this can't be right, but I'd still want to argue it based on their formula

 

[nwdiver]

In other words, I'd like to see their assumptions and the computation. Otherwise it's hard to shoot a hole in their argument, outside of the "they're biased, so this can't be right". And I'm sure they're biased, and this can't be right, but I'd still want to argue it based on their formula

Predicting future events is more about understanding history than the present...

Behold the 'S' curve; Trouble is you only know where you were by looking back.

 

[ohmman]

And Philip-Morris, RJ Reynolds, et al in the 1950s probably had some pretty lofty projections as well. I'm going to go ahead and xkcd this.

 

[nwdiver]

And Philip-Morris, RJ Reynolds, et al in the 1950s probably had some pretty lofty projections as well. I'm going to go ahead and xkcd this.

Right... point is that technology adoptions usually follow a pretty typical (though perhaps not predictable) 'S' curve. Meaning that adoption rates can hit an inflection point and gain exponential growth very very rapidly... sometimes <5 years.

 

[Ampster]

Bottom line for me is that I don't put any value in predictions from OPEC. As far as I am concerned, they are dead and will have little market influence. The nail in the coffin was when the ban on US Exports was lifted.
Just my 2 cents.

 

[beeeerock]

Right... point is that technology adoptions usually follow a pretty typical (though perhaps not predictable) 'S' curve. Meaning that adoption rates can hit an inflection point and gain exponential growth very very rapidly... sometimes <5 years.

This is the wildcard I don't think has been factored into all the promises and predictions associated with COP21 and local (smaller) government initiatives to remove ICE from their regions by 20XX. I am reading, on a daily basis now, news stories about this car manufacturer and that car manufacturer promising X fully electric cars by 20YY. Last month, it was lip service and longer time lines, with more emphasis on hybrid. But this month, it seems everyone wants to get some skin in the game.

I've said for a while that the timeline for adoption is too long, because it's based on a typical vehicle life-cycle and the ICE model. The problem with that assumption is it doesn't account for gotta-have-it-today factor normally associated with cell phones and flat screens. How long ago were flip phones the rage and the standard? When did you last see one? And was that user trying to hide it from view? ;-)

Once people figure out that the EV is the new cool (I predict that will happen in the next 2-4 years if not sooner), people won't be able to trade off their ICE's fast enough. Used car values will drop and since you can't short sell your car, you'll want to sell fast to minimize your losses. Being stuck with 2013 Hyundai Santa Fe will be like owning an old Motorola flip phone... except you won't be able to hide it in your pocket.