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Open Letter to Elon Musk

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Yet - as we speak - Tesla is hiring people for Unreal 4 based simulation... for Autopilot.

Guess we will see. Artificial Intelligence is the hardest part to write in games. Making the bad guys act on their environment in a human fashion without cheating (supplying more information to the bad guy than they actually have access to) is difficult. But acting in a logical human manor is easy to simulate in cars. Obey the laws. Done.

For AV's you need Artificial Stupidity. While not completely random acts, humans do really stupid stuff while driving, and much of it is predictable. Example: You see a driver who is going slower than traffic, in the left lane, who speeds up and slows down as buildings and intersections appear. The driver is probably looking for a building or street. They can suddenly without warning turn left, right across lanes, or stop at random. Or they are just old, drunk, or texting. A human can easily ID these threats. They are seldom random. ie - the car doesn't drive at the correct speed with steady lane position and then swerve across 2 lanes to make a right.

If you programmed a car to assume all drivers are using Random Stupidity, you'd never get anywhere. You identify the Stupidity threat, and act accordingly, but do not treat other cars that way.

But there are literally hundreds of Stupidity Tells, not just lost drivers. Experienced motorists are so used to detecting Stupid, that we don't even think about much unless it's severe. Somebody at a cross street, will they pull out in front of you deliberately? Car backing out a driveway, can they see you? Car approaching intersection at high speed as the light goes yellow, will they floor it and run the red? I probably see a potential accident every day that is averted by a driver with a good nose for Stupid, it's a common survival trait.

I have a hunch that game designers have not studied Artificial Stupidity much. Ever see a computer-generated enemy forget the safety is on? Or their gun jams from lack of cleaning? Or they accidentally shoot another computer-generated enemy because they are jumpy?
 
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...Artificial Intelligence ... Artificial Stupidity ... Random Stupidity ... the Stupidity threat ... there are literally hundreds of Stupidity Tells ... detecting Stupid ... potential accident every day that is averted by a driver with a good nose for Stupid, it's a common survival trait
What a great post and totally true. When my kids were being taught driving through a school, 10-15 years ago, I tried to also get across the concept of a #1 Rule when driving: People Are Stupid.
 
OK, I'll bite. I have seen both of your examples. I have earned type ratings in a Level D simulator.

A level D is expensive to build but wa a vastly simpler problem than is autonomous highway driving. Simulators for war games, aircraft, ships and other aerospace applications all have in common an environment more controlled than that of road vehicles.

The war game analogy is pretty weak, actually, because fidelity to reality is not so much the points as is teaching tactics, strategy and novel technologies.

If you actually experience a Level D, then the aircraft the Level D represents, you might well agree that the learning is fantastic but it "just ain't real". The simulators are, in my limited experience, subtly harder to operate than are the actual aircraft. One primary reason for those simulators is to experience systems failures and weather conditions that would be lethal were they to be done in real life. Exact fidelity is not necessary.

I think you may not really understand the problem. Nobody suggests Elon is infallible, nor that he is eternally optimistic. You are one of a tiny group who seem to think NASA somehow 'saved' Space X. Most informed people that I know think the NASA regulatory role is positive, just as is the diagnostic role of the NHTSB. Neither of these actually innovate nor should they. Neither are invariably correct in their views.

Bluntly, despite your best efforts to defame people who disagree with you, your own statements make it quite clear that you do not possess the qualifications to make the assertions you are making. Being annoying is not usually a productive way to solve problems. You can use your single success in whistleblowing to claim understanding and even use short term project manager positions to proclaim technical expertise. People who understand project managers tend to think they are not usually technical wizards.

Finally, posting here will not help you in your goal to make money out of the Tesla pursuit of autonomous vehicles. For that matter, making misstatements about NHTSB findings won't help your quest either.

Possibly you might consider going back to school and actually studying the subjects about which you claim such expertise.

The key here being when you said this - "The simulators are, in my limited experience,. . .". You simply do not understand aerospace level simulator AND simulation tech.

Waymo's new Safety Report confirms all of my points. Bury your heads in the sand at your peril.

 
@imispgh would you do us all a favor and just stop...??? I don't see what you think you're going to accomplish here and quite frankly, unless you have a different argument to make, stop beating your dead horse...

Jeff
What i want to accomplish is all AV makers are successful. That includes Tesla. Tesla nor anyone else who uses public shadow driving vs aerospace level simulation as the primary AI, engineering and test process will ever reach L4 and will cause thousands of needless casualties along the way. Just like NASA not drinking the Kool-Aid and helping Elon I am trying to do the same. All of the folks here who do not look at this objectively hurt the company. Sometimes you best friend is not the one who helps you drink from the same bathwater but the one who tells you it's poison.
 
What i want to accomplish is all AV makers are successful. That includes Tesla. Tesla nor anyone else who uses public shadow driving vs aerospace level simulation as the primary AI, engineering and test process will ever reach L4 and will cause thousands of needless casualties along the way. Just like NASA not drinking the Kool-Aid and helping Elon I am trying to do the same. All of the folks here who do not look at this objectively hurt the company. Sometimes you best friend is not the one who helps you drink from the same bathwater but the one who tells you it's poison.

Only you have ulterior profit motives that you conveniently failed to mention... Furthermore I know exactly what I signed up for when I enabled AP and I'm not going to sit idle and allow fear mongers like you attempt to derail progress because YOU think it should be. I appreciate Teslas willingness to be on the bleeding edge, it's one of the main reasons why I'm a customer. That's the beauty of AP, if you won't want to be a beta tester, don't enable the functionality...

Jeff
 
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What i want to accomplish is all AV makers are successful. That includes Tesla. Tesla nor anyone else who uses public shadow driving vs aerospace level simulation as the primary AI, engineering and test process will ever reach L4 and will cause thousands of needless casualties along the way. Just like NASA not drinking the Kool-Aid and helping Elon I am trying to do the same. All of the folks here who do not look at this objectively hurt the company. Sometimes you best friend is not the one who helps you drink from the same bathwater but the one who tells you it's poison.
You keep repeating the same things that reflect your misunderstanding. I shall ignore you from here forward.
 
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Only you have ulterior profit motives that you conveniently failed to mention... Furthermore I know exactly what I signed up for when I enabled AP and I'm not going to sit idle and allow fear mongers like you attempt to derail progress because YOU think it should be. I appreciate Teslas willingness to be on the bleeding edge, it's one of the main reasons why I'm a customer. That's the beauty of AP, if you won't want to be a beta tester, don't enable the functionality...

Jeff
There is ZERO profit motive. Please tell me exactly what you think that would be?
Sometimes people do the right things for the right reasons
https://www.thenation.com/article/will-botched-coast-guard-contract-come-back-bite-james-comey\
IEEE Xplore Full-Text PDF:

Tesla is not on the bleeding edge. And do not confuse different or new for viable.

I have learned that folks who shoot messengers and refuse to discuss the objective merits of an argument do not actually have one. You would serve Elon and Tesla much better demonstrating exactly where I and now Waymo are incorrect.
 
You keep repeating the same things that reflect your misunderstanding. I shall ignore you from here forward.

I have learned that folks who shoot messengers and refuse to discuss the objective merits of an argument do not actually have one. You would serve Elon and Tesla much better demonstrating exactly where I and now Waymo are incorrect.

Be a fan - but be an objective and helpful one.
 
There is ZERO profit motive. Please tell me exactly what you think that would be?
Sometimes people do the right things for the right reasons
https://www.thenation.com/article/will-botched-coast-guard-contract-come-back-bite-james-comey\
IEEE Xplore Full-Text PDF:

Tesla is not on the bleeding edge. And do not confuse different or new for viable.

I have learned that folks who shoot messengers and refuse to discuss the objective merits of an argument do not actually have one. You would serve Elon and Tesla much better demonstrating exactly where I and now Waymo are incorrect.

Okay so I tried to be nice but you apparently refused to listen so now I'm just going to say STFU... You're BS is not welcome here. Peddle your crap elsewhere...

I have a great argument actually... I have been using AP1 since November of 2015 and in that time it's gotten substantially better, why? Because Tesla continues to innovate and improve the functionality. Why should I give up something that has been immensely helpful to me on long road trips simply because YOU don't like the way Tesla is approaching things? Again, STFU.

Tesla, keep on keeping on. While I know AP2 has been an issue with many owners, for many valid reasons I might add, don't let fear mongers like this guy keep you from achieving your goals.

Jeff
 
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Okay so I tried to be nice but you apparently refused to listen so now I'm just going to say STFU... You're BS is not welcome here. Peddle your crap elsewhere...

I have a great argument actually... I have been using AP1 since November of 2015 and in that time it's gotten substantially better, why? Because Tesla continues to innovate and improve the functionality. Why should I give up something that has been immensely helpful to me on long road trips simply because YOU don't like the way Tesla is approaching things? Again, STFU.

Tesla, keep on keeping on. While I know AP2 has been an issue with many owners, for many valid reasons I might add, don't let fear mongers like this guy keep you from achieving your goals.

Jeff

I never suggested Tesla AP has no value or that progress isn't being made. As for giving anything up all that i am suggesting is that you should never let it steer.

You are a believer whose ego is tied to your beliefs. As such you look for confirmation bias and refuse to dig deep into a counter argument. EXACTLY where is my L3/shadow driving argument wrong? EXACTLY why is Waymo's approach wrong?
 
I never suggested Tesla AP has no value or that progress isn't being made. As for giving anything up all that i am suggesting is that you should never let it steer.

You are a believer whose ego is tied to your beliefs. As such you look for confirmation bias and refuse to dig deep into a counter argument. EXACTLY where is my L3/shadow driving argument wrong? EXACTLY why is Waymo's approach wrong?

I'm still not clear on whether you understand what shadow driving is. Why, exactly, is capturing real-world data of users driving and comparing the results of their actions against a simulation of a planned AP update being run in the background dangerous?
 
I'm still not clear on whether you understand what shadow driving is. Why, exactly, is capturing real-world data of users driving and comparing the results of their actions against a simulation of a planned AP update being run in the background dangerous?

Regarding shadow driving. This is a terminology issue regarding Tesla that I have to correct here and there.since Tesla has a shadow mode.

Public shadow driving or safety driving is when the vehicle has control, especially of steering, and the driver monitors it. That mode will never lead to autonomy and as the scenarios get more complex and dangerous will cause thousands of avoidable causalities. The solution is to use that process with aerospace level simulation.

As for real-world data we want that but with folks maintaining control.

If you are open to seeing exactly why this is all and issue and why Waymo evolved to doing exactly what i have been suggesting please see my article here. I provide references for ALL of the data I cite.

Letter to Congress - Handling of minimum standards for Autonomous industry

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/letter-congress-handling-minimum-standards-industry-michael-dekort/
 
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I never suggested Tesla AP has no value or that progress isn't being made. As for giving anything up all that i am suggesting is that you should never let it steer.

You are a believer whose ego is tied to your beliefs. As such you look for confirmation bias and refuse to dig deep into a counter argument. EXACTLY where is my L3/shadow driving argument wrong? EXACTLY why is Waymo's approach wrong?
I think you are not clear on Tesla's definition of 'shadow driving'.

Does your opinion change IF you were to find that Tesla collects data from users driving on roads, whether or not AP is enabled? If Tesla is just collecting data from someone driving without AP engaged, do you have an issue with that?
 
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What i want to accomplish is all AV makers are successful.

But if that is genuinely true then you cannot advocate a form of armchair engineering which has already decided on the limits and approaches which AV research and development should take.

There is a quote which is usually (mis) attributed to Einstein:

"We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them"
 
Regarding shadow driving. This is a terminology issue regarding Tesla that I have to correct here and there.since Tesla has a shadow mode.

Public shadow driving or safety driving is when the vehicle has control, especially of steering, and the driver monitors it. That mode will never lead to autonomy and as the scenarios get more complex and dangerous will cause thousands of avoidable causalities. The solution is to use that process with aerospace level simulation.

As for real-world data we want that but with folks maintaining control.

If you are open to seeing exactly why this is all and issue and why Waymo evolved to doing exactly what i have been suggesting please see my article here. I provide references for ALL of the data I cite.

Letter to Congress - Handling of minimum standards for Autonomous industry

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/letter-congress-handling-minimum-standards-industry-michael-dekort/

That's not how Tesla has defined it every time it's talked about "shadow driving".

See these:
Tesla’s new Autopilot will run in ‘shadow mode’ to prove that it’s safer than human driving
Tesla starts pushing new ‘Enhanced Autopilot’ to entire fleet in shadow mode only
Tesla adds ‘calibration period’ for vehicles with new ‘Autopilot 2.5 hardware’

In that last one, we have a Tesla spokesperson describing shadow mode specifically: "During that process, Automatic Emergency Braking will temporarily be inactive and will instead be in shadow mode, which means it will register how the feature would perform if it were activated, without taking any action"

"Shadow mode", at least as it applies to Tesla, is exactly what you're saying you want in terms of real-world data.
 
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