Opinion: Is this a good deal? 2012 P85

[peakay]

Hi there,

I'm looking a a 2012 P85, Dec. 2012 build, 45k miles and seems in great shape, 2+ years left on the CPO warranty and I think I can get it for $50k. All options but jump seats and sub zero - has fast chargers, pano, tech, sound system, etc.

How much do you think this car will be worth in 2 years with 65k miles on it and a 3-4 months of CPo warranty left?

Reason I ask is we are trying to get into a model S now and sell it off in a year or two when our model 3 reservations come available. Was going to buy/lease a bolt or other EV in the interim, but thought if we found a good deal the depreciation hit wouldn't be that different and we'd be on the "owners" list when the M3 starts being parceled out.

thanks in advance for any quick opinions - looking to close on this quickly.

 

[Andyw2100]

Some of those early builds had some issues that were later corrected. That being said, with the CPO warranty, you should be OK.

I'm not sure I would count on being able to have a Model 3 two years from now, though.

 

[gaswalla]

In two years, value around 30-35k. The Model 3 with all its modern updates (autopilot, heads up display, etc ) for 35-40k will be the competition.

 

[Drone Flyer]

Once the Model 3 comes out, the pre AP Model S's will be worth very little, as people will want the Model 3 which will be around the same price as an older Model S Pre AP.
To upgrade to a 2019 Model S in two years from a pre AP Model S, will be quit expensive and out of the reach of a lot of potential buyers.
I would suggest upgrading before the Model 3 comes out!

 

[peakay]

Thanks guys. So I thought 40k would be a safe estimate for resale as I've recently seen an MS 40kwh sell for 39k. Is there some sort of frenzy going on right now or ? To me, it seems like people want to get into a Tesla and about 40k is the bottom price. When the 3 starts to come out, they won't be available to just anyone, so I thought there'd still be a solid market.

Do you think AP is as important to the general market as it is to enthusiast like you? I know I don't care that much about it and it's not like it's free - the options are expensive on top of an expensive car. To me just having one is the coolest thing!

Also, it seems like unlimited supercharging is driving some sales and thought maybe the legacy ones having it would keep the value up too.

Let me know what you think - not trying to talk myself into it (much) but what I've seen lately is the used market is really strong.

Thanks!

 

[alloverx]

Hope you are not waiting for a 35K Model-3. I predict they will never exist. Does anyone know when the first mention of a 35K Model3 was made. With inflation, perhaps it will be $37K by end of next year.

 

[Spidy]

Thanks guys. So I thought 40k would be a safe estimate for resale as I've recently seen an MS 40kwh sell for 39k.

I think it will take a much bigger hit, main reason being that with a 2012 model the battery & drivetrain warranty will be down to around 2 years. Why would I buy a used Model S for that price when I can get a Model 3 with I would assume again comes with a 8 year warranty? Even if that costs a bit more, I get a new car with new tech, I get the 4 year factory warranty on top of it.

Not to mention if you just want to bridge the gap to the Model 3 then why go for a P car with all those options? If you want to spend around $50k on a Model S why not look for a 2014 CPO?

 

[OCRyan]

Another thing to consider, as far as re-sale value, as of today the number of Tesla vehicles with unlimited super charging will only go down. Not sure what the value of that will be in the future, but it has to be a positive. As already stated by Tesla, the early vehicles with unlimited super charging will maintain unlimited regardless of owner (it goes with the car).

 

[JohnQ]

Once the Model 3 comes out, the pre AP Model S's will be worth very little, as people will want the Model 3 which will be around the same price as an older Model S Pre AP.
To upgrade to a 2019 Model S in two years from a pre AP Model S, will be quit expensive and out of the reach of a lot of potential buyers.
I would suggest upgrading before the Model 3 comes out!

Not sure that will be the case. The S is a significantly bigger vehicle with much better range and amenities compared to an entry level 3. If vehicle size were important to me then a used S would be an option ... though I'd go for a more recent vintage that had longer warranty left on battery and motor.

 

[gaswalla]

Will be interesting to see what happens to resale value when the 8 year warranty expires

 

[Watts Son]

I think you will be safe at the entry level M3 price($35K) for a long time. People who have considered the S out of their league and want unlimited free supercharging will be more than willing to pay this price I feel. Production and distribution of the M3 will be slow in these next couple of years and, as said above, the very bare bones 3 will still not have the size and comfort (and maybe even range of the 85) of the S.

 

[brkaus]

Will be interesting to see what happens to resale value when the 8 year warranty expires

I'm hoping there will finally be independent shops as the warranty starts to expire and they actually have work that could be done without risking the factory warranty. Do expect the value to drop in the short term though.