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Zaphod
Galaxy President (former)
December 28th, 2017? Are you a current owner? Either way, my opinion there is little to no chance you would take delivery before then.
hmmm
Member
I wouldn't bet on it...and your location makes it even more challenging for a Q4/winter delivery IMHO. I hope I am wrong.
wiredprairie
Member
I'll be pleasantly surprised if you have a Model 3 before 2017 year end. Thankfully however, you've got a lot of time to think about other options before then. 
han170
Member
I too reserved a Model 3 on the first day and I am a Model S owner. My wife wants an electric American made car. She is turning her diesel VW in next month. Like all reservation holders, We are trying to guesstimate when our Model 3 might be ready for delivery. We are thinking about leasing a Chevy Bolt (available in NYS, our home, next month) or simply waiting for the Model 3 and driving the beat up 11 year old hybrid we own. Any thoughts on when current Tesla owners and Model 3 reservation holders might see their cars? This year? I am thinking that it will be about a year from now.
I think that there will be some west coast deliveries later this year. I'm a 3/31/16 reservation holder and a Model S owner in Colorado but I don't know if they'll be making deliveries this far "east" by the end of the year. I think early next year is probably more realistic...maybe even a little later for the east coast. Of course I'll be pleasantly surprised if they are able to deliver in Colorado later this year.
Try this, it may give you a clue: Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator
That would be our best guess....
It is debated in this thread.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I'd estimate if they can produce 80k cars Model 3s in 2017 then you'd get the car by the end of December assuming no delays. That should cover nearly the entire set of US reservations for March 31st, 2016. Any stragglers might be picked up in January/February.
We don't know exactly how the deliveries are going to start working and we don't know how smoothly the ramp up will go. I would honestly check out the news at that time, if it looks like the car is only weeks away and not months away then I'd rent a car in the interim. If you read news of massive delays or slower than expected ramp up, then take other options. By December, we'll know a lot more than we know now.
I posted this on another thread earlier, but makes sense to include here too:
The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:
- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth
As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.
Thoughts?
The one thing about the reservation system which I think they have to be transparent on, is where are the proverbial lines in the sand being drawn? I am just outside of Toronto, and approximately 105,000th in line, given that I ordered online about an hour before the reveal; but would the 200,000th (or moreover the 300,000th or 400,000th) person in line get theirs first, based on being on the west or east coast, in the US? I would think that they would have to say something like:
- Delivery of all employees cars up to 25k
- Delivery of all west coat cars up to 50k
- Delivery of all east coast cars up to 75k
- And so on, and so forth
As this would at least given some semblance of respect to the queue and priority sequence within which people ordered.
Thoughts?
JeffK
Well-Known Member
First thought is there's likely a US vs global line in order to maximize US tax credits. The US has Tesla's largest customer base thus far (56.7% of all 2016 Model S/X sales). It's important to keep the customer base happy and it's already been mentioned that deliveries will start in the US first.
My thoughts are of a rollout with time as a determining factor. Not only the time of reservation, but the time for production goals and manufacturing hiccups. The entire reason they're delivering to employees first is a faster feedback loop. This allows them to make quick engineering changes. This is also why Elon was kind of wishy washy about when the final production car would be shown. It's likely that employees will already have cars and be giving feedback before they open everything up to the public.
Best case scenario is all Tesla and SpaceX employees with reservations will have deliveries in July/August and possibly into September.
March 31st and April 1st were probably the biggest reservation days. I might argue that the 31st is more important. They'd have enough reservations on those two days for a few months worth of deliveries. Largest percent of Tesla buyers are going to be on the West coast (historically) this might take two months just to cover March 31st. It'd also give Tesla time to feel more comfortable about finding flaws and ramping up manufacturing. After this Nov/Dec they'd be able to cover many of the March 31st reservations for the Midwest, and then the East coast. We don't exactly know how they are going to split the regions and we also don't know how they are going to prevent the service centers from getting backed up with deliveries.
The service center issue might actually cause them to move faster in delivering to other regions. I imagine multiple waves through the country with nearly all US reservation holders done by Q1 2018 in best case scenario.
Tesla is starting the year at 107,339 US sales, US sales last year were 47,644 so let's say the US sales for 2017 is the same as last year...
This puts us at 154,983. We can hope this number is lower in 2017 because of Model 3 anticipation, but if a customer isn't a current reservation holder then it's quicker to buy Model S/X. This means Tesla can deliver only (45017 - 1) cars in 2017 (assuming S/X US sales don't increase) if they wanted to extend the 200,000 car mark to Q1 2018...
They can certainly produce more than this, but simply not deliver them or send them out of the country...
This might mean early West coast Canadian deliveries.
It'd be really crappy if they hit the 200,000 mark late December 2017. It'd be a great example of NOT maximizing US tax credits. If we see this happening we should all tweet to Elon at once to hold up on deliveries for the benefit of thousands of people (potentially 120,000 people with 3 months @ 10,000/week).
TL;DR : In sum, there are a lot of factors at play from service center delivery capacities, reservation times: especially those March 31st line waiters (*cough* and some of us stragglers who ordered online that night during the reveal), US tax credits, production milestones, engineering fixes/or manufacturing delays, etc.
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Well best case would be the 200,000 to be delivered in January 2018 instead of anytime in 2017 so that full tax credit is available until end of June 2018.
Elon has mentioned in tweets before he would try to maximiaze it. This would be my guess.
But if we do hit 200k in Q4 2017 we still have the full credit until March 2018. (Credit is for he quarter it is hit and the quarter after)
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Exactly, but the soonest they are likely to hit it is December Q4 which wouldn't maximize it. We might just need to make sure we remind him in case he's too focused on increasing production and forgets.
InsideEVs does a monthly scorecard
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Just need to keep an eye on it...
Hmm... I thought it was the quarter it is hit and the two quarters after?
... not that it matters much to me
Quarter hit - full credit
Quarter after - full credit
2 quarters after that - 50% of credit
2 quarters after that - 25% of credit
But ya doesn't matter to me either in that I believe I'll be at the latest the quarter after it hits.
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