Northrup Grumman (was Orbital Sciences) Antares / Cygnus

[Grendal]

One of Elon's strengths is that he can see the future very clearly. A lot of us in Technology have a pretty good idea where things are going too, but Elon has that rare ability to see the future so clearly that he effectively really knows what is going to happen.

Anyways, I mention this because imagine what he must have been thinking as the Falcon 9 was being developed, and he looks around at the competitors:

- one uses Russian rocket engines literally built 40 years ago
- one sources another kind of Russian rocket
- one is run by a bureaucracy huge and unwieldy with input from a dozen national politicians
- one is run by a country where saving face is paramount to the point of trumping safety and critical design issues (space isn't forgiving)

He must have been thinking, why the $)!?@ isn't anyone else entering this market? It is overripe for competition...

Meanwhile the rest of us go, Elon, are you crazy?

Elon has spoken about the history of SpaceX repeatedly. He thought NASA was focused on going to Mars - they weren't. So first he wanted to buy a Russian rocket (an old ICBM rocket I believe) but was a little too frightening. Then finally he sat down and did the math on how much it would cost and was stunned at how low the number really should be compared to the prices he was seeing. He decided to create his own rockets to achieve the goals he wanted.

So I'm not sure how much the competition mattered until he was actually competing with them. Then I'm sure he had the same WTF moment you're pointing out. Since Elon is a straightforward type of person then you can easily see the head shaking confusion that his competitors must create in him.

I was stunned to discover that there have been lots of experimentation in rockets happening at taxpayers expense with no change to what rockets are being used. The fact that a reusable rocket engine was researched, designed, tested, with billions of dollars spent by NASA without ever being launched baffles me beyond words.

It's all talk, research, and design with no action to back any of it up.

 

[Cosmacelf]

You mean, like almost every other government program

It's almost as if the capitalist pressure of needing to make money focuses an organization to produce goods and services that people want to buy...

 

[Grendal]

You mean, like almost every other government program

It's almost as if the capitalist pressure of needing to make money focuses an organization to produce goods and services that people want to buy...

It's funny, but just like with Tesla, he will force change in his competitors through innovations in his own company. It will be "match what I am doing or you will be gone." It is more dramatic in rockets because they are so freaking expensive and reusability will change all that. He might literally put every other launch company out of business within the next decade. The only launchers left will be run by governments that will not care about spending extra.

We might see some desperate moves where the other companies pull out some of their more innovative ideas that were shelved and try them out.

non-sequitur: I will hate to see what will happen to Elon the first time he loses someone in an inevitable accident.

 

[Lanny]

I was contacted by an engineer working with the Antares Accident Investigation Board today. The person responsible for video analysis found my video on YouTube and said it is one of the best spectator videos they’ve run across. He had a few questions for me regarding where I shot it from and the availability of the raw video files.

Of course, I’ll cooperate and help them with anything they need. I am a bit surprised that they are interested in spectator video and at this point in time. I would have thought that they had high resolution cameras at every conceivable angle to document the launch. Any idea what they may be looking for?

Lanny

 

[physicsfita]

I was contacted by an engineer working with the Antares Accident Investigation Board today. The person responsible for video analysis found my video on YouTube and said it is one of the best spectator videos they’ve run across. He had a few questions for me regarding where I shot it from and the availability of the raw video files.

Of course, I’ll cooperate and help them with anything they need. I am a bit surprised that they are interested in spectator video and at this point in time. I would have thought that they had high resolution cameras at every conceivable angle to document the launch. Any idea what they may be looking for?

Lanny

If I had to guess, they are operating on the theory that more data is better than less data. Despite all the cameras they have set up, your angle is unique, and it could possibly show something that might otherwise be missed. Better to gather all the video and images they can now, before something that might be important gets deleted.

 

[Doug_G]

Different vantage point. it's possible that your video might be less saturated than theirs, so maybe they could see stuff that isn't visible in their video. That sort of thing.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's funny, but just like with Tesla, he will force change in his competitors through innovations in his own company. It will be "match what I am doing or you will be gone." It is more dramatic in rockets because they are so freaking expensive and reusability will change all that. He might literally put every other launch company out of business within the next decade. The only launchers left will be run by governments that will not care about spending extra.

We might see some desperate moves where the other companies pull out some of their more innovative ideas that were shelved and try them out.

Well, SpaceX hasn't yet achieved reusability. They haven't yet landed the 1st stage, and even when they do, it might not be reusable.
If SpaceX succeeds, the response will be to use SpaceX for more stuff, but subsidize efforts in reusability.

 

[Lanny]

I spoke with the engineer doing the video analysis for the AIB. He said they have 60 cameras trained on the vehicle at launch but most are very close up. Once the vehicle leaves the pad they don't have as much video data. He said they were seeking my recording since it was one of the better quality shots right before the malfunction. Most of the cameras on Wallops Island are 720p. Mine is 1080p which may allow them to see more detail after applying filters and adjusting contrast.

Even if they have identified a likely cause, they have to rule out every other possible scenario before releasing the final report. That could take a while.

 

[hockeythug]

Orbital Cygnus RTF launch today scheduled for 5:55PM ET, 30 minute launch window, and weather is 60% go.

 

[Grendal]

They are using an Atlas V booster. Here's a video of what to expect:

Atlas V OA-4 Mission Profile - YouTube

 

[hockeythug]

Storm front is right over the cape currently. 70% chance of 24 hour weather hold.

 

[hockeythug]

Weather still bad.

Edit: Scrubbed. Around the same time tomorrow.

 

[doug]

About 7 minutes to launch

NASA Television | NASA

 

[hockeythug]

Ground wind limits exceeded again. 2nd recycle.

 

[HankLloydRight]

About 7 minutes to launch

NASA Television | NASA

It's been 20 minutes.. I see it's not launched. What's going on?

ah, T-4 minutes. and holding.

 

[Discoducky]

now in last window for today

 

[hockeythug]

It's been 20 minutes.. I see it's not launched. What's going on?

ah, T-4 minutes.

Wind gusts tripping limits and they have to recycle the clock back to 4 minutes. They are now on their final launch time for the window of 6:03pm est.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Thanks, I just had to listen for a few minutes to hear that. It's awfully quiet comms for a pre-launch checklist. Not that I really know anything about it, I though it would be more "chatty". Seems like just two guys relaying info.

 

[hockeythug]

Wind gusts again. This is a scrub.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Wind gusts again. This is a scrub.

The did just reset to t-4.. doesn't sound like a scrub.

They got 1 second into the countdown. ;(