Order by 12/31 for Unlimited Supercharger access and Tax Incentives (CO), or wait?

[whatthe2]

Hi All,

I've been reading through this Forum for the past several weeks, but am still fairly new, so forgive me if I'm asking questions that have already been answered. I did find some of the info I'm looking for, but not a complete list.

A little background. I rode in a Tesla several weeks ago and instantly fell in love with it. I always had the impression they were way too expensive, so I never really considered purchasing. Then I saw the Model 3 is being released next year (I know, I must have been living under a rock since I didn't hear about this until a few weeks ago), and put down the $1,000 reservation in early December. According to the Model 3 tracker I'm looking at Nov. 2018 (at the earliest I would imagine).

Not wanting to wait that long I decided to see what it would take to get into a Model S to "tide me over". I was surprised to learn that the S60 and S75 are much lower in price than I thought, so I am now considering getting one of those. So on to my questions:

1. I fly nearly every week for work, so my car will mainly be used for travel to the airport and around Denver. I don't anticipate the need for unlimited Supercharger access, but I'm wondering if this will be of value when I go to sell the car down the road? This may be hard to answer as pricing has not been set, so maybe I'm overthinking this, but curious if anyone thinks this pushes a purchase to 12/31 instead of waiting a few more months.

2. I'm in Colorado and it sounds like the tax incentives are changing in 2017. Is there a big incentive to purchase before 12/31 or am I getting basically the same deal in 2017? I know I can look this up, but being new to EV's, I just want to make sure I'm understanding everything correctly and figured you all would have any hidden info a newbie wouldn't find.

3. Since the refresh and AP2 are recent, does anyone anticipate anything major being announced for the S at the Model 3 third reveal? I know there is always going to be something new coming, but since I'm weighing buying before the end of the year or waiting a few months, thought it was relevant to discuss.

And not really related to the topic of this thread:
4. I'm also debating on whether to lease or purchase. I did read the thread from a few months back on this, so I have a bit of info. My original plan was to use this as a bridge to the Model 3, but who knows, I may not see a need to go to a Model 3 by then, or may even want to get a new S by then. If anyone has debated this recently, would love to know your thoughts. In looking at the month lease vs. own payments, there's not much of a difference in the price range I'm looking.

Thanks in advance.

Rick

 

[Villa-Lobos]

My opinion...Get the 75D now with full autopilot and forget the model 3. I have a reservation for a model 3 but currently own a 2015 70D that I love. I am ordering the 90D(unless they come out with 100D) before year end to get the supercharging. I have driven 24k miles this year I have owned the car and love the supercharging. The model S is much more car and will ride better and be more comfortable on longer trips. If the AP2 comes out as good as advertised then since I have time to drive back and forth between Ohio and Montana I will do that versus fly. You are two years away from your model 3. Life is short get the S now and since it will have fully autonomous autopilot dual drive etc The only addition that is likely come along is bigger battery. It will be a better car than the 3.

 

[whatthe2]

My opinion...Get the 75D now with full autopilot and forget the model 3. I have a reservation for a model 3 but currently own a 2015 70D that I love. I am ordering the 90D(unless they come out with 100D) before year end to get the supercharging. I have driven 24k miles this year I have owned the car and love the supercharging. The model S is much more car and will ride better and be more comfortable on longer trips. If the AP2 comes out as good as advertised then since I have time to drive back and forth between Ohio and Montana I will do that versus fly. You are two years away from your model 3. Life is short get the S now and since it will have fully autonomous autopilot dual drive etc The only addition that is likely come along is bigger battery. It will be a better car than the 3.

Great advice, thanks. I didn't mention above, but although I don't anticipate a need for Superchargers as this point, I may love to drive it so much that I find myself taking long trips I normally wouldn't. I'm also thinking the S will be better than the upcoming 3.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

The Colorado tax credit is $6000 for the rest of 2016. I'm not 100% certain how the Colorado tax credit works (as I just took delivery and haven't filed for mine yet) but the Federal tax credit requires you to place the car in service the same year the car is delivered. I assume it would be the same for Colorado so it's probably already too late for you to take advantage of it in 2016. You might be able to find an Inventory or CPO vehicle at TeslaInventory.com but unless it's local, I doubt you'd be able to get it delivered before the end of the year.

The tax credit decreases to $5000 in 2017.

 

[HebrHmr]

1. I don't think it has been announced whether or not unlimited supercharging will transfer with the car or be tied to the original owner. That being said, it is better to have and not need.

3. Tesla Glass Tesla Glass: the electric automaker’s latest top-secret program Tesla Model 3 will feature new type of glass developed in-house, Elon Musk confirms ‘Tesla Glass’ tech group

4. If you can reasonably afford the S, I don't think you're going to want to downgrade to the 3. Unless you have a financial reason to do so or have some specific reason for wanting the 3 over the S you should finance and not lease.

Another note: 2 years of gas/oil/maintenance savings getting into an S now over a 3 assuming you're not already in an EV.

They are expensive...but you're getting safety, performance, utility, and technology in one package. It would take 2 or 3 cars to get what I have in my S.

 

[whatthe2]

The Colorado tax credit is $6000 for the rest of 2016. I'm not 100% certain how the Colorado tax credit works (as I just took delivery and haven't filed for mine yet) but the Federal tax credit requires you to place the car in service the same year the car is delivered. I assume it would be the same for Colorado so it's probably already too late for you to take advantage of it in 2016. You might be able to find an Inventory or CPO vehicle at TeslaInventory.com but unless it's local, I doubt you'd be able to get it delivered before the end of the year.

The tax credit decreases to $5000 in 2017.

Thanks, wasn't aware of the in service requirement, but makes sense.

1. I don't think it has been announced whether or not unlimited supercharging will transfer with the car or be tied to the original owner. That being said, it is better to have and not need.

3. Tesla Glass Tesla Glass: the electric automaker’s latest top-secret program Tesla Model 3 will feature new type of glass developed in-house, Elon Musk confirms ‘Tesla Glass’ tech group

4. If you can reasonably afford the S, I don't think you're going to want to downgrade to the 3. Unless you have a financial reason to do so or have some specific reason for wanting the 3 over the S you should finance and not lease.

Another note: 2 years of gas/oil/maintenance savings getting into an S now over a 3 assuming you're not already in an EV.

They are expensive...but you're getting safety, performance, utility, and technology in one package. It would take 2 or 3 cars to get what I have in my S.

Thanks, great info. And I'm starting to think the same way about the 3. Why would I want to downgrade after getting the S? Maybe keep the reservation for my kids or something.

 

[Villa-Lobos]

You can always go with the 60D and pay for the upgrade to 75D later. I am totally happy with performance of the 70D I am only ordering the 90D because I want the extra range. The 70D has plenty of power at any speed. The Model S IMO will be much more car the the 3.

 

[Haxster]

And I'm starting to think the same way about the 3. Why would I want to downgrade after getting the S?.

The smaller size of the Model 3 could be an advantage. Bigger is not always better.

 

[CUBldr97]

Don't count on a tax credit for the 3 at all.... Tesla will be at 200k cars in the us sooner than you will get a three. So do it now

 

[whatthe2]

The smaller size of the Model 3 could be an advantage. Bigger is not always better.

Great point. I actually kind of like the look of the 3 as well. Will have to see it in person. After driving the S, it seems like the perfect size, but with the 3 being a bit smaller, it may be even more fun to drive.

Don't count on a tax credit for the 3 at all.... Tesla will be at 200k cars in the us sooner than you will get a three. So do it now

Yeah, I thought that may be the case as well. I'm pretty far down the list.

 

[houstonian]

@whatthe2

According to the Model 3 tracker I'm looking at Nov. 2018 (at the earliest I would imagine).

Also remember existing owners are prioritized so if you do go with a 60/75, you should be able to move up a 3 deliverys date...not that it does you any good.

Not wanting to wait that long I decided to see what it would take to get into a Model S to "tide me over". I was surprised to learn that the S60 and S75 are much lower in price...

The prior-to-2k-increase-60s-but-really-a-75s got me off the fence. Compelling argument, see where you're coming from.

1. I fly nearly every week for work, so my car will mainly be used for travel to the airport and around Denver. I don't anticipate the need for unlimited Supercharger access, but I'm wondering if this will be of value when I go to sell the car down the road? This may be hard to answer as pricing has not been set, so maybe I'm overthinking this, but curious if anyone thinks this pushes a purchase to 12/31 instead of waiting a few more months.

Tesla's got a SC right where Peña ties in with 70 at Gateway Park. Guessing you're local to DEN (?) but if not, this is a very convenient location for folks with a long drive to/from DEN and perhaps useful to you too? No idea of the resale impact but do suspect they'll be a positive one.

2. I'm in Colorado and it sounds like the tax incentives are changing in 2017. Is there a big incentive to purchase before 12/31 or am I getting basically the same deal in 2017? I know I can look this up, but being new to EV's, I just want to make sure I'm understanding everything correctly and figured you all would have any hidden info a newbie wouldn't find.

IIRC the credit is going from 6k to 5k, but the 5k is now paid straight to Tesla at closing (?) ...I stand to be corrected though.

3. Since the refresh and AP2 are recent, does anyone anticipate anything major being announced for the S at the Model 3 third reveal? I know there is always going to be something new coming, but since I'm weighing buying before the end of the year or waiting a few months, thought it was relevant to discuss.

Who knows. Supposedly there's this kick ass augmented reality thing Tesla's working on. My take was 2.0 for AP and the 60-but-really-62.4ish-battery-off-a-75kw was enough to get me to commit.

Hope that helps.

 

[Ghosty]

The free supercharging is limited to the vehicle right? Not the buyer? If so, I realized I'd trade up the car in a few years...so the benefits of the supercharge for "free" wouldn't be as big?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

2. I'm in Colorado and it sounds like the tax incentives are changing in 2017. Is there a big incentive to purchase before 12/31 or am I getting basically the same deal in 2017? I know I can look this up, but being new to EV's, I just want to make sure I'm understanding everything correctly and figured you all would have any hidden info a newbie wouldn't find.

IIRC the credit is going from 6k to 5k, but the 5k is now paid straight to Tesla at closing (?) ...I stand to be corrected though.

It is only paid directly if the dealer (or store) chooses to front the money and then get reimbursed by the state. When we spoke with store employees a few weeks back, they didn't think Tesla would do this as it would be a change from the way Tesla handles sales. Most likely, buyers will still have to apply when filling their taxes the following year.

 

[Troy]

I'm also thinking the S will be better than the upcoming 3.

Let me make things more interesting by arguing the opposite. Notice that I'm comparing the current Model S 75D to the Model 3 75D, not the Model S 75D that will be on sale when the Model 3 comes out or not the Model S 100D.

Tesla has been working on higher energy density battery cells for a while. They started using these in the new powerpack (source). The current Model S doesn't use these cells yet but the Model 3 will. That means around 20% less weight for the same amount of capacity. Reduced weight increases performance, range and handling. Of course, it is possible that the Model S will switch to the new cells as well, maybe around April or May 2017. But we are comparing the current Model S to the Model 3, not the Model S a few months from now.

Elon is hoping that the Model 3 will achieve 0.21 drag coefficient (source) compared to 0.24 for the Model S. If that turns out to be true, the Model 3 75D will have considerable more range than the Model S 75D. I would expect 304 mi EPA rated range. See my detailed calculation here.

More range means faster supercharging because to achieve the same rated miles, you would need to supercharge to a lower percentage. For example, if you need to leave a supercharger with 200 miles rated range, that would be 200/259= 77% of Model S 75D's range and 200/304= 66% of Model 3 75D's range. Supercharging to 66% will be much faster than to 77%.

The Model 3 has the same height as the Model S (source) and almost the same width. It is just a little shorter. Here is a picture that compares the two: