Ownership Away from a Service Centre City?

[beeeerock]

I would agree. I think that after 10 years my cost of ownership will work out to not much more than $10,000 per year, whereas with an ICE the maintenance costs are going to start piling up, and the fuel costs will be astronomical. Depending on how much you drive, the fuel cost of the ICE could add up to $30-50K by that time. Even if the Model S has cost more over the same period: I got to drive a Model S for 10 years! (And I expect that it will last at least another 10, though I'm sure I'll upgrade to the P250D by then.)

I came across a spreadsheet someone prepared to justify the purchase of a Model S over a Honda Odyssey or similar... I think I'll dig it up and take a closer look at it. Maintenance and fuel costs are the big ones... if you always charge at home, the difference will be a little less, but if you decide to see the world via the Supercharger system, the savings would climb.

For me, there is also the element of putting my money where my mouth is. I heat and cool my home with a geo-exchange system (typically described - incorrectly - as 'geothermal'). That costs more up front than a natural gas furnace. I've been driving clean diesels since they arrived on the scene around 2000. I'm in the process of getting a design together to put solar panels on my roof with a connection to the grid. So if walking the talk encourages others to do the same, paying a premium for an EV is not unlike donating funds to the Heart Society... in this case, it's donating funds to the "Earth Society". (if my wife asks, that's my story and I'm sticking to it... :tongue: )

I happen to think that the battery will be fine after 10 years, but even if it isn't: it takes literally just minutes to swap it out for a new one. And what are the odds that you'll be able to get a similar capacity battery for much less, or else a much higher capacity battery for a similar cost? I think the odds are pretty good. So the utility of the car could actually increase.

I think you've hit the nail on the head with those comments. If Moore's Law for computers can be even partially applied to battery development, the cost to replace a full set of Model S batteries in 8 or 10 years should be a fraction of what it is today. And the capacity will undoubtedly be larger. By that time, the Model S battery volume under the car might look similar to strapping the diesel tanks from a Kenworth onto the sides of your Jetta TDI... "Why do you need to go 10,000 km's between fill-ups??"

As for the dual motor drive: I think the rear-motor car would be fine, but if you're anywhere with snow I'd say go for the dual motors. The only down side I can think of is a little less storage space in the front trunk, and that's not generally a big deal. (I haven't seen a dual motor car - I'm curious how much less space there is in the front trunk.)

The other down side is the extra cost up front. I'm fairly sure I could live with RWD - I have done so for most of my driving years and never had issues getting to the ski hill, out and about during heavy snow storms before the plow arrived... The few years I had Pathfinders, I got pretty cocky about what 4WD could do! I didn't get myself into any significant trouble, but you know how that goes... just drive the Coq in a whiteout snow storm and notice who drives past you at 120 km/h! However, AWD is where it's at these days, so it might be worth investing for better resale value alone.

It will be interesting to hear what you think after your test drive!


P.S. The price of gasoline could easily double or triple in 10 years. The economic equation will change if that is the case.

I absolutely will relate my thoughts after a drive. At this point I can't help but think I'll be completely and hopelessly sold, but we'll see. And yes, the price of fuel is only going to increase over time... although I have read some thoughts that suggest increased numbers of EV's will drive the price of crude down again... or at least slow the climb. Big Oil won't want to get shut out of the game, so they'll sacrifice some short term profits to keep the ICE cars on the road as long as possible. Or so I think.

- - - Updated - - -

My thinking about battery degradation is that I'll never need to replace the battery, because the supercharger network will grow way faster than my battery's range will decline. If the degradation predictions of 3% in the 1st year and 1% per year after that are accurate (and so far they seem to be), in 5 years an 85 kWh battery will have around 395 km of range. But there are 403 supercharger locations worldwide now vs. just 94 one year ago. Even if the growth of the network is only linear (not quadrupling every year), 5 years from now there will be almost 2000 supercharger locations worldwide. Who knows exactly how fast the network will actually grow, but by 2020 we should be well past the 2016 map that Tesla is showing now, and with that many superchargers, the difference between 395 km and 425 km of range won't be important.

I think you're quite right in your thinking. The number of times you're on a long trip and possibly inconvenienced by a few extra 30 minute stops at a supercharger, over a few weeks of travel, are unlikely to be significant in the scheme of things.

The thing I liked most about the Better Place concept was that with battery swaps, you never owned batteries. Newer, high capacity packs could be stocked in areas where range was important and the older packs that were getting tired could see more life if used in flat areas where range wasn't as big of a concern. Obviously, there were problems with the Better Place model or it would be around today... but that part at least was interesting.

 

[Smiley Face]

Price of Gas

P.S. The price of gasoline could easily double or triple in 10 years. The economic equation will change if that is the case.

What happened last year is the price of gas was so high that some people started to buy smaller cars and the people who had small cars bought a Tesla. This year, oil production was increased to reduce the price of oil at the pumps making gas cars more affordable. Now that Tesla is a competitor to oil in the car market the market will put downward pressure on the price of oil and suppliers will have to increase production to saturate the market. The issue is not how high the price of gas will go but at what point will we run out of oil reserves. FOREVER! (or the next 10 billion years when humans are crushed under the crust to form new oil.)

 

[PoweredByRain]

What happened last year is the price of gas was so high that some people started to buy smaller cars and the people who had small cars bought a Tesla. This year, oil production was increased to reduce the price of oil at the pumps making gas cars more affordable. Now that Tesla is a competitor to oil in the car market the market will put downward pressure on the price of oil and suppliers will have to increase production to saturate the market. The issue is not how high the price of gas will go but at what point will we run out of oil reserves. FOREVER! (or the next 10 billion years when humans are crushed under the crust to form new oil.)

I don't think we'll get to the point of running out of oil reserves entirely. That's unlikely to happen for another hundred years, as most people think we're about half way through the reserves at the moment. The point is that at some point in the not too distant future it is unlikely that current extraction levels (being pedantic I refuse to call it "production") can be maintained. i.e. less and less oil will be available to the market each year. The question is really this: will the decline in oil extraction rates be matched or overwhelmed by a decline in demand, or will the price skyrocket so that only certain high-value uses will continue to depend on oil? My bet is the latter. There's a lot of oil-based infrastructure which isn't going to change overnight.

 

[beeeerock]

I don't think we'll get to the point of running out of oil reserves entirely. That's unlikely to happen for another hundred years, as most people think we're about half way through the reserves at the moment. The point is that at some point in the not too distant future it is unlikely that current extraction levels (being pedantic I refuse to call it "production") can be maintained. i.e. less and less oil will be available to the market each year. The question is really this: will the decline in oil extraction rates be matched or overwhelmed by a decline in demand, or will the price skyrocket so that only certain high-value uses will continue to depend on oil? My bet is the latter. There's a lot of oil-based infrastructure which isn't going to change overnight.

I think you're right. I've lost sleep pondering Peak Oil and all the uncertainty it brings! I don't think we'll really know when we've hit that point until we've gone by it and can see the stats in the rear view mirror. And I agree that the big question will be whether a shift away from oil by the average consumer will cause petroleum prices to drop in an effort to attract/retain buyers, or whether supply limitations will maintain the price or cause it to rise. Not factored into this is how future governments will deal with the carbon issue and whether they'll attempt to legislate or tax petroleum out of existence as a fuel. We'll likely still be using oil to make plastics etc... there will have to be a point where people recognize that we're literally burning up a resource that can be used for other more valuable things!

I find it very interesting that Musk has gone so heavily into solar. It's an alien concept in our dog-eat-dog capitalist world to see someone like him working for success by doing positive things. So alien that I actually find myself wondering, in cynical moments, what his *real* agenda is. Probably exactly as it appears, but we're conditioned to expect ulterior motives in business aren't we?

Being an engineer myself, I consider him to be an engineer's engineer. I realize he did a degree in physics rather than applied science, but the technical side of his work is all about engineering rather than pure science, so I'll let that slide! And he doesn't wear that stereotypical pocket protector...

 

[Doug_G]

We drove to Florida a few weeks ago and when we got there we noticed a new rising, "whining" sound at low speeds (under 40 km/h) when accelerating. I wasn't too worried about it but thought I'd ask at the Paramus NJ store on the way home while we charged. They took it for a drive, took a recording and sent the info to the Montreal SC to arrange to replace the drive unit. I didn't get much detail on what's causing the noise - they just said it's coming from the gearbox (not the inverter or motor). It still drives fine and it'll be a couple of weeks until they replace it.

They call it a "milling sound", and will replace the drive unit if you get it. No one has ever explained what it is, but Tesla obviously understands it. I was told it's not a reliability issue but if you get it the sound gets worse over time, so Tesla fixes it.

Yes, I've had it too.

- - - Updated - - -

I think you've hit the nail on the head with those comments. If Moore's Law for computers can be even partially applied to battery development, the cost to replace a full set of Model S batteries in 8 or 10 years should be a fraction of what it is today.

There's no Moore's Law for batteries. Moore's law was based on something very fundamental - the ongoing shrinking dimensions of transistors and wiring in integrated circuits. Moore looked at the data and realized the shrinkage was at a certain rate, and he realized that the trend would continue for some time. He was then able to make his prediction, which eventually became self-fulfilling in that every semiconductor manufacturer based their product planning on the law, and would go to heroic lengths to make it continue even as shrinking more got harder and harder to achieve.

Batteries are different. There's a lot of futzing about with chemistry, with materials science, lots of guessing, trying different things, coming up with ideas and finding out if they work in the lab. You're optimizing against multiple constraints - weight, volume, power density, power delivery, cycle life, temperature range... and so on. There isn't an obvious "way forward" for each next generation the way there has been for silicon chips.

The closest thing is Musk's observation that batteries get better at about 8% a year. It's a fraction of Moore's law, but it does build up over time. It's more of a challenge to researchers to keep pushing things than a "law" of how things will progress.

If Musk is right then batteries will be about twice as good in 8-10 years.

 

[PoweredByRain]

There's no Moore's Law for batteries.

You make a very good point about the difference in what's required for technological improvement in semiconductors vs batteries, but arguably there is a similar concept for batteries. You even stated it yourself:

The closest thing is Musk's observation that batteries get better at about 8% a year. It's a fraction of Moore's law, but it does build up over time. It's more of a challenge to researchers to keep pushing things than a "law" of how things will progress.

If Musk is right then batteries will be about twice as good in 8-10 years.

Moore's "Law" isn't a law, of course, and it hasn't always been the same. Originally it was a prediction of a doubling in the number of transistors every year, but that soon changed to every two years, and now the period is much longer.

Regardless, any prediction of an exponential (multiplicative factor repeating year after year) rate of improvement is analogous. 1.08 might not be as impressive as 1.44 (doubling every two years), but it's a difference in magnitude, not in kind. And Moore's "Law" has been scaled back to probably 1.25 or less (doubling in 3 years or more).

I'd like to know where this 8% prediction comes from. It's been stated many times from different sources. I have yet to see it - if it is truly the case then we should see 26% "better" (are we talking about energy density?) batteries now as compared to when the Model S was first produced. So are we going to see a 107 kWh battery with the introduction of the Model X? This 8% prediction would suggest so.

 

[Doug_G]

My source for the 8% number was Elon Musk on a stage at the first TMC Conference. He was making an observation about progress in recent years. Unusually for Musk this is not based on any fundamental physics; it's observing recent history and assuming you can project it forwards.

Probably the cell manufacturers have some idea of the chemistries they'll be using for the next few years because they're already in production transition, so I'm sure the near-term progress will be on that order. But we really have no idea where we'll be in 8 years, but there are reasons to be hopeful because lots of money and smart people are being thrown at the problem.

So, really, useful info but not on the level of Moore's law.

 

[beeeerock]

There's no Moore's Law for batteries. Moore's law was based on something very fundamental - the ongoing shrinking dimensions of transistors and wiring in integrated circuits. Moore looked at the data and realized the shrinkage was at a certain rate, and he realized that the trend would continue for some time. He was then able to make his prediction, which eventually became self-fulfilling in that every semiconductor manufacturer based their product planning on the law, and would go to heroic lengths to make it continue even as shrinking more got harder and harder to achieve.

Yeah, I realize that Moore's Law wasn't intended for batteries... I was using it as an analogy when I said "even partially applied to battery development". Point being, improvements will come and even if density limits out (which it will have to eventually), manufacturing should improve in both technique and scale. In 8 years, when the battery warranty expires, the cost to replace will certainly be much less than it is today. And the replacement pack might add range in the process too.

 

[Ugliest1]

Throw my voice in. I ended up purchasing the Ranger service because a) across the water from Vancouver like Powered, and b) we knew we would be taking looooooong trips in North America and Ranger service purported to be anywhere for any reason (notwithstanding the post above that says it's not for warranty work). We haven't had a need for Ranger service as yet (Jan 2014, 39,000km). We've dropped by the service centre a few times for minor things when we were in Vancouver and had our 1-year service done in September after only 8 months due to the 17,000km trip we took over the summer. We booked those in advance and were fortunate enough to get a loaner each time so we had no problems meeting our scheduled commitments in Vancouver.

In terms of quality build... on the weekend my son bought a flatscreen TV, and I used the Model S to take it to his home. It was in a cardboard box, and was big enough we put both rear seats down. Why am I mentioning this? The creaks, groans, ticks, and other annoying noises coming from the cardboard box were HIGHLY annoying. And it made me realize that after 14 months and 39,000km, the car (sans TV box) is still as solid and silent, no creaks, as when we first drove it home.

In terms of price (and depreciation)... I believe Tesla says they make 28% profit on each Model S, that is then funnelled back into R&D. So one way of saying that is yes, they are charging what the market will bear (since they don't have a demand problem). But the reason they're doing that (IMHO) is valid - moving the world to sustainable transportation. For depreciation with the cars you mention (Mercedes, BMW etc), in 2008 we purchased a 2007 Infiniti M35 (1.5 years old) for about half price, our first luxury car. I was shocked when we went to sell it to get the S, that we were looking at a third of the price we paid for it. Our first full-circle experience with luxury cars. The "new" luxury cars have so many improvements, the "slightly old" ones depreciate on a steep curve. Enter our Model S, which, with the exception of no TACC hardware, actually has more features (e.g., hill hold, improved trip energy management...) than when we bought it.

In terms of AC, I can attest it is fabulous. Last summer we ended up in a traffic jam on an Arizona highway when a Fed Ex truck and a pickup towing hay bales had small miscalculation and closed the highway in the middle of the day for 2.5 hours. We were totally comfortable just sitting there in the S, even with the sun beating down through our pano roof (it's amazing, cuts out nearly all the heat). It really hit home when I got out of the car to see if I could see any movement in front of us -- we were so comfortable in the car I was thinking outside would be like a nice Victoria day at 20-25C. WHAM! The heat hit me like a fist. We lost 6 miles of range sitting there in total AC comfort listening to an ebook for 2.5 hours. And no extraneous heat generated by a running ICE in order to have the AC work, so our feet didn't burn up and the "engine" was in no danger or worry of overheating.

The only other thing I'll add is about superchargers on a long trip. To the uninitiated the "forced" half-hour stops might appear onerous. But, what I found out is the half-hour required break would actually get us out of the car for a little walk and stretch, maybe a coffee etc, and we were quite refreshed when starting to drive again. By the end of the day we weren't feeling like we had been travelling all day. And it took maybe an hour or 1.5 hours longer to travel than in an ICE, which is nothing on a long trip. The safety factor of far less fatigue completely outweighs that in my opinion. Not to mention it's just more fun to drive, no vibration, instant passing when needed, quiet, corners like a dream....... etc etc.

This has turned into quite a long post. Guess I'm still as passionate about the Model S as the day I bought it. Scratch that, that's not true. I'm *MORE* passionate about it.

 

[Jaff]

The only other thing I'll add is about superchargers on a long trip. To the uninitiated the "forced" half-hour stops might appear onerous. But, what I found out is the half-hour required break would actually get us out of the car for a little walk and stretch, maybe a coffee etc, and we were quite refreshed when starting to drive again. By the end of the day we weren't feeling like we had been travelling all day. And it took maybe an hour or 1.5 hours longer to travel than in an ICE, which is nothing on a long trip. The safety factor of far less fatigue completely outweighs that in my opinion. Not to mention it's just more fun to drive, no vibration, instant passing when needed, quiet, corners like a dream....... etc etc.

This has turned into quite a long post. Guess I'm still as passionate about the Model S as the day I bought it. Scratch that, that's not true. I'm *MORE* passionate about it.

This ^^^ in spades! A half hour stop just breezes by in no time...and, you can drive as far as you'd like, without so much as a farthing's additional cost... :smile:

 

[Doug_G]

In terms of price (and depreciation)... I believe Tesla says they make 28% profit on each Model S

28% gross margin - that's not profit.

Gross margin is what's left over after you build one and sell it. It does not include all the other costs of operating your business, such as sales expenses (show rooms, salespeople), engineering, general and administrative, interest expenses, etc. So the net margin will be much smaller.

 

[Ugliest1]

Oops, thx for correction Doug. I'll let your post do the honours instead of editing my post. And I'll try to remember "gross margin"!!

 

[beeeerock]

Took the Test Drive!

I promised to report back after taking an 85D for a test drive in Vancouver...

The first thought that came to mind when I started moving was PoweredByRain's comment about 'Rube Goldberg Machines'. He's absolutely correct! There was nothing about the car that gave me pause, or suggested it wasn't worth pursuing further. Obviously, the up front cost is a consideration, but I don't think I'm too worried about cost to own.

As I stated on another thread, I'm really quite shocked and disheartened by the fact that Tesla built this car on what was essentially a shoe-string budget when compared to what GM or Toyota or Mercedes would spend just to update an existing design. Those car companies whose names are all household words should be really (REALLY) embarrassed by what Tesla has done.

I didn't get to drive it on a twisty secondary road because, well, those just don't exist in downtown Vancouver! My butt-sense of how it moved suggested it might understeer - can anyone comment on handling characteristics when pushed? Like I mentioned, it was a dual motor model, so I'd expect weight numbers would cause a RWD model to show more of this tendency (if my suspicion is correct).

The absolute quiet inside was strangely relaxing... something my wife commented on.

I put together a customized build based on the 85D. Red, pano roof, 19" wheels (don't need the grief the large ones would create around here), tech pack, ultra sound system, subzero package. I'm still on the fence on the seats... the next gen seats give more side bolster support, but didn't really feel too much different otherwise. I'm a little surprised by the adder to get the better sound system - you could put together an amazing system for that price if you were able to go aftermarket (which obviously you can't)! The cold weather package is very fairly priced. The tech package... well, again, it seems a little steep for what's included... but I selected it anyway.

I went with the dual motor more for the potential that it might hold more value over time. I suspect the RWD will be dropped eventually. I could live quite nicely with RWD and would love to gain back the frunk space... not 100% sure on that option yet.

Final price with taxes more than my first house! Yikes! Can I afford it? Yes. Can I justify it? Not sure yet. Do I want to find a way to justify it? Absolutely!

 

[Ugliest1]

Final price with taxes more than my first house! Yikes! Can I afford it? Yes. Can I justify it? Not sure yet. Do I want to find a way to justify it? Absolutely!

Yeah, my first house, and my second (but not added together thankfully!!). Wait until you write that cheque though and it's NOT for a house, that's the fully surreal experience.

By the way, maybe this will help: "Justify? JUSTIFY????? We don't need no stinkin' justify!!!!". :smile:

 

[PoweredByRain]

Final price with taxes more than my first house! Yikes! Can I afford it? Yes. Can I justify it? Not sure yet. Do I want to find a way to justify it? Absolutely!

I would have had a Model S with a serial number of about 6000 (i.e. one of the earliest ones in Canada) had I kept my original reservation. At the time I owned a Nissan LEAF, which gave me the thing I considered most important: fully electric driving. I really had no "need" for a Model S. Nearly $100K for a car? That's insane. And then the B.C. government canceled the EV incentive and re-introduced the luxury tax, so the cost of the car went up another $8K or so.

I canceled the reservation.

Six months later I changed my mind and bought a car from inventory (a few $K off, more importantly delivery the next week), serial number about 20000, spending close to $100K, taxes in. Driving it home I was just in awe. I was giddy. I was wondering why the hell I had put it off for six months.

Some things you need to justify, some - just don't even bother trying. You say that you can afford it. My advice would be to hold your nose, write the cheque, and live VERY happily ever after. Cash in an account will not give you the joy that the car will give you.

(Ok, if you really really insist on trying to justify it: long term the cost of ownership really isn't much more than a mid-range car, when fuel and maintenance costs are included. And you are obviously doing far less environmental damage, powering a car by rain - you live in B.C., so the power mostly comes from hydroelectric stations which have already existed for decades - rather than by fossil fuels extracted from possibly half a world away, shipped by vessels that burn bunker oil and occasionally spill crude into the sea, refined at refineries which consume vast amounts of energy and occasionally release toxins into the air, shipped by trucks or trains which burn a lot of diesel fuel and definitely release toxins into the air, stored at a distribution tank, eventually shipped again either by truck or train or maybe barge, etc, stored in a tank at your local gas station, then finally pumped - using yet more energy - into the car's tank. At which point it's burned and definitely releases toxins into the air, along with carbon dioxide.)

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, by the way, speaking of the EV incentive: it's back! Effective April 1. So there you go, it's $5K+tax cheaper than you thought it was a week ago.

 

[sandpiper]

Final price with taxes more than my first house! Yikes! Can I afford it? Yes. Can I justify it? Not sure yet. Do I want to find a way to justify it? Absolutely!

Uhh.... good luck with that justification. Right now there is NO financial justification for a Tesla. Or any car more than a base Corolla. You can rationalize it perhaps, but the biggest part of the rationalization will inevitably be "I would really like to have it". That's true for many many things in the first world of course.

The only rational argument that I could ever come up with is that this is technology that the planet desperately needs. And if those who can afford it don't support it, it will never happen.

So, the quicker you abandon attempts to justify buying it, the sooner you will be pressing the "order" button and joining those of who smile every time we drive down the road.

 

[beeeerock]

The only rational argument that I could ever come up with is that this is technology that the planet desperately needs. And if those who can afford it don't support it, it will never happen.

So, the quicker you abandon attempts to justify buying it, the sooner you will be pressing the "order" button and joining those of who smile every time we drive down the road.

Yup... DONE!

 

[PoweredByRain]

Yup... DONE!

Congrats!

 

[Sgutz]

I'm in Ottawa, so the nearest SC is Montreal. I've had some service done in Toronto when I happened to be there anyway, and I've had a ranger come to my house from Montreal twice. It's actually kind of nice to have the work done at home and the service is always excellent. Now I need a drive unit replaced and they will be sending a loaner car from Montreal, taking my car back there to do the work, and then bringing it back to me. This kind of remote service is actually one of the things about Tesla that I like to tell people about - they are always impressed.

So this was another one of my worries before hitting the "Buy it now" button on a Model S. So if you live in Ottawa and need service they will pick up the car? I was worried I'd have to figure out how to get it to Montreal myself since I'd heard they no longer pick your car up.

BTW have they now fixed this motor issue for newer cars? I'm used to niggling car issues since I licenced the first Macan Turbo in the country, but I'm hoping that a car with about 10000 fewer parts will have far fewer issues.

 

[Peter_M]

So this was another one of my worries before hitting the "Buy it now" button on a Model S. So if you live in Ottawa and need service they will pick up the car? I was worried I'd have to figure out how to get it to Montreal myself since I'd heard they no longer pick your car up.

I do scheduled service in Toronto if I happen to be going there anyway, but if that's not convenient, you can call the Tesla Montreal service centre, and they'll send a mechanic to do the work at your home. If they can't do the work at your house, they'll bring a loaner Model S on a trailer, take your car back to Montreal to fix it, and then return it.

BTW have they now fixed this motor issue for newer cars? I'm used to niggling car issues since I licenced the first Macan Turbo in the country, but I'm hoping that a car with about 10000 fewer parts will have far fewer issues.

If you're referring to the "milling noise" I have in my car, I don't know if they've fixed it in new cars - I expect so. Best I can tell from other threads is that it "just happens" sometimes, and once it starts happening, it tends to get noisier so they replace the drive unit. In my case, I just asked Tesla about the noise when I was at the Paramus NJ service centre to charge. They took it for a drive and then said they'd arrange with the Montreal SC to replace my drive unit. I didn't push at all but they just always do what's right. I haven't had the drive unit replaced yet (it's on order) but they'll do the valet service thing and take my car to Montreal for the repair.

So bottom line, there's a lot of new technology in the car, so expect a few minor issues, but you'll also get impeccable service, to the point where these minor issues are really not a problem.

The other thing to know is that Tesla is working towards opening a sales and service location in Ottawa. It's unknown how long it will actually take, but within a couple of years it should be here. A key factor is how many owners there are in the area, so you can help by pressing the Order button