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P100D in the works!!! :)

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Anyone about t order just needs to understand that whatever spec they order will be supplanted by a higher specced car in 6-12 months. Its the way that it needs to be if we are to continue EV development. i can't see the problem with it, my S85 is as good as it was when I ordered it and it will remain so until one day when I can order a 250kWhr replacement battery pack for $100:smile:
 
Hard to say how much the pack will really change, in terms of power and energy. 100 is a nice round number, but the real change in kWh could be anywhere from 5 to 15. They also won't just put in more cells, so the chemistry, maybe even the cell format, has changed. Maybe in anticipation of the GF and the M3?

Power could also vary, because a different cell changes everything. BMW's 20kWh pack can deliver more than 125kW (170hp) to the motor, GMs 60kWh pack just 150kW (losses not included, so it should be more in both cases) so a 100kWh pack could deliver anything from 250kW(335hp) kW to 625kW(840hp).

I guess we will see at March 31.
 
Hard to say how much the pack will really change, in terms of power and energy. 100 is a nice round number, but the real change in kWh could be anywhere from 5 to 15. They also won't just put in more cells, so the chemistry, maybe even the cell format, has changed. Maybe in anticipation of the GF and the M3?

Power could also vary, because a different cell changes everything. BMW's 20kWh pack can deliver more than 125kW (170hp) to the motor, GMs 60kWh pack just 150kW (losses not included, so it should be more in both cases) so a 100kWh pack could deliver anything from 250kW(335hp) kW to 625kW(840hp).

I guess we will see at March 31.


If we weren't going to see it in March before, I think we will now.... :) This is Tesla's "iPhone 4 left in a bar moment"

Just for fun I'm going to throw out some completely unsubstantiated speculations:

a) There is only going to be a P100DL (not P100D(non L) or 100D) for now. (ok, this seems a little bit substantiated)
b) The reason is that they're starting production of a new cell geometry/chemistry - that will ultimately be used at the GF.
c) The initial production runs are in Panasonic's factory in Japan, and they have limited production capacity - and so they will offer it only on their top model for now.
d) With the new cell geometry we will also see higher battery current limits & breaker ratings - and so significantly more power.
e) It will be a long time before we can upgrade packs on existing cars - since production capacity in Japan is and will remain limited until GF production starts.
 
...it's mind blowing that my 9 month old 70 may soon be able to get a 30% pack upgrade option. Wow.

It's actually about 43% more which is even more impressive.

Still, a 70 KWh Model S has enough range for the huge majority of drivers who rarely, if ever, do long-distance driving. I would love to see the "spread" between battery sizes widen a little, maybe keeping the 70 and adding a 100, so that the 70 becomes less expensive as the technology improves and you have a choice between range and a significant cost savings when buying a Tesla. Or, if the Model 3 is substantially lighter and more energy-efficient, maybe Tesla offers three options: 50 and 75 for the Model 3, 75 and 100 for the S/X.
 
I wonder whether the P100D pack has lower internal resistance or an improvement in some other parameter that would FINALLY allow the car to run the quarter in 10.9 as promised long ago!

Unless they are adding more cells or increasing the size of the cells, the only way to add more range in the same package is to increase the amount of silicon in the anode which although increases capacity also increases internal resistance....and decreases cell life as well.
 
I wish Tesla would start to produce cars that are cheaper, not the ones, that are more and more expensive.
You might want to switch to the Model 3 subforum.

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Not that it's a guarantee it will be offered but it seems technically possible so it's mind blowing that my 9 month old 70 may soon be able to get a 30% pack upgrade option. Wow.
Math note: (100-70)/70 = 42 7/8 %
 
Math note: (100-70)/70 = 42 7/8 %
Math Correction: (100-70)/70 = 42 6/7 % or 42.(857142)% :biggrin:

"Approximate marginal increase of 30%" ok how's that fellas :)

Just for fun I'm going to throw out some completely unsubstantiated speculations
Very well speculated. I sure hope bigger doesn't just mean more cells as the car is heavy enough already. It's awesome to imagine in a year or two (or so, Elon time : ) we might have packs that are bigger and lighter.
 
"Approximate marginal increase of 30%" ok how's that fellas :)


Very well speculated. I sure hope bigger doesn't just mean more cells as the car is heavy enough already. It's awesome to imagine in a year or two (or so, Elon time : ) we might have packs that are bigger and lighter.

try and avoid the word bigger unless you qualify it with a supporting phrase or sentence about space. Many get confused and think more range when you say bigger.

Bigger = more space
higher capacity = more range
heavier and lighter don't get misused so we're OK there.

Lets hope for a smaller and lighter battery pack with more capacity.
 
Step 1, make the 100 the new top option. Step 2 in 6 months, update the 70 to 75, with no price increase, and then drop the 90. From there, perhaps no S/X battery updates until after the Model 3 is being produced at a 100k annual rate or more, which will hopefully be mid-2018.

This is interesting. Sounds like the Model 3 will have a 60 kWh battery out of the gate.

The line up would be: M3 60 kW, MS 75 kW, MS100 kW

I like it!
 
I thought about it for me time and there is something I really can't figure out.
Tesla might want the S and the 3 to use the same cells, thats fairly certain.
And we can also say that the next cells to come will be also used in the M3.
Tesla might also want to use the same modules, but there is a problem with that.
If we assume that those 100kwh packs still use the same 16 modules and the 70*X pack still uses 14, with 4 of them half empty, a something like 60kWh pack with 10 modules would make sense, but then the Voltage would drop too low. So they might need to use different modules, or make even more modules half empty, which can't be very cost effective. The smartest solution would be if they could use one battery module for the whole lineup. In that case they could run one product line no matter what cars they want to produce and just fit in the amount of modules they need. It would be a very lean solution.

Maybe they might change the packs network completely, to give every module about 200V, put always 2 in series to get to 400V and then set up all the pairs parallely. Does anyone know if that, or something like that, would be possible?
 
I thought about it for me time and there is something I really can't figure out.
Tesla might want the S and the 3 to use the same cells, thats fairly certain.
And we can also say that the next cells to come will be also used in the M3.
Tesla might also want to use the same modules, but there is a problem with that.
If we assume that those 100kwh packs still use the same 16 modules and the 70*X pack still uses 14, with 4 of them half empty, a something like 60kWh pack with 10 modules would make sense, but then the Voltage would drop too low. So they might need to use different modules, or make even more modules half empty, which can't be very cost effective. The smartest solution would be if they could use one battery module for the whole lineup. In that case they could run one product line no matter what cars they want to produce and just fit in the amount of modules they need. It would be a very lean solution.

Maybe they might change the packs network completely, to give every module about 200V, put always 2 in series to get to 400V and then set up all the pairs parallely. Does anyone know if that, or something like that, would be possible?

Not sure what your saying by half empty modules. All of the modules in a given pack are the same. In all there are 3 known types of modules: 85kwh type modules (all carbon), 60kwh type modules (all carbon with some missing cells evenly spaced out) now discontinued, and the 90kwh type modules (added silicon). The 70 pack uses 14 (type 85) full modules. Given that all of the modules are in series, they need to be the same. So they have already transitioned to the "lean" strategy as you have described. They just need to fully drop the type 85 module, therefore upgrading the 70 to something like 73... (round up to 75). Then they would have only one type of module. My guess they still have a lot of production capacity for the fully carbon cells and want to continue to take advantage of that supply.

An auxiliary pack system could be made, but I think in the grand scheme of things it would be simpler, safer, and more cost effect to just work the upgrades into the main pack, be it chemistry or packing efficiency improvements.

The problem with putting every module in parallel is it introduces hellatous balancing issues, just ask wk057. They wouldn't be able to use their simple bleed resistor to balance cell groups, as you would also pull down the voltage of the modules in parallel that you didn't intend to lower. (I can explain this better if needed) Therefore you would need to put a DC to DC converter in between modules or do some other tricky balancing maneuvers.
 
Not sure what your saying by half empty modules. All of the modules in a given pack are the same. In all there are 3 known types of modules: 85kwh type modules (all carbon), 60kwh type modules (all carbon with some missing cells evenly spaced out) now discontinued, and the 90kwh type modules (added silicon). The 70 pack uses 14 (type 85) full modules. Given that all of the modules are in series, they need to be the same. So they have already transitioned to the "lean" strategy as you have described. They just need to fully drop the type 85 module, therefore upgrading the 70 to something like 73... (round up to 75). Then they would have only one type of module. My guess they still have a lot of production capacity for the fully carbon cells and want to continue to take advantage of that supply.

An auxiliary pack system could be made, but I think in the grand scheme of things it would be simpler, safer, and more cost effect to just work the upgrades into the main pack, be it chemistry or packing efficiency improvements.

The problem with putting every module in parallel is it introduces hellatous balancing issues, just ask wk057. They wouldn't be able to use their simple bleed resistor to balance cell groups, as you would also pull down the voltage of the modules in parallel that you didn't intend to lower. (I can explain this better if needed) Therefore you would need to put a DC to DC converter in between modules or do some other tricky balancing maneuvers.

I guess I didn't make myself clear enough, but you still answered some of my questions. But first I have to disagree on some things. If the modules are in series, they don't have to be the same. If they were parallel, they would, because then there could be a voltage difference, but if they are in series, the voltage is just added.

Another thing would be the amount of different modules you are describing. How could having two different chemistries be efficient? Or some with less cells and some with more. And 85* 14/16 would be 75kWh. Are you sure thats the way it is, or are you just guessing. And that would mean that a upgraded pack, with only the cells used in the 100, would give us a 87.5...
I just came up with 12 modules, because thats about whats needed to get from 85 to 60 and 90 to 70, but because I have heard somewhere that they had 14 modules, that 4 might be half empty.

And I don't know where you are reading an auxiliary pack into my post.

But I get the balancing issues, that might really be quite tricky. I just thought that it might be more efficient, if they used one cell and one module for their whole lineup, not 3 cells and 4 different module configurations (assuming that the M3 might also need 2 different packs). Because, to me, thats sounds very inefficient.

Edit: Sorry the modules might still have to be the same, because the internal resistance would be twice as high in half empty modules... Its late over here in Germany....