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P85D sales ratio 95%?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by InternetDude, Dec 18, 2014.

  1. InternetDude

    InternetDude Member

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    Browsing the forum here I see P85D this, P85D that. It gives me the impression that 90%+ of you guys are buying P85D. Does anyone know the real sales mix? P85D vs 85D vs 85 vs 60?

    I'm interested in 85D, I have no need for P, top speed in my city is 70 km/h (43 mph) for a 1-km stretch (50 km/h everywhere else), and the speed traps are nearly oppressive. So it would be a waste of money to pay for extra performance that I would never use. I'm just curious on what people are buying, the mix of models.
     
  2. tdiggity

    tdiggity Member

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    The P85D is the new hotness. And they haven't released any 85D's, so theres nothing to compare to yet.
     
  3. InternetDude

    InternetDude Member

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    Aha, so they're just pushing out their "flagship" cars first I take it? When I check the 85D online it's showing a March delivery if I ordered now.
     
  4. Txy

    Txy Member

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    This forum is also comprised of a high percentage of enthusiasts, so the amount of P85Ds is probably skewed upwards :)
     
  5. RichardL

    RichardL Member

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    Elon mentioned an expectation of 70% being D's in the near future (either P85D or 85D)
     
  6. andrewket

    andrewket 2014 S P85DL, 2016 X P90DL (soon 100)

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    Yup. Selection bias.
     
  7. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Right, and the earliest delivery date promised for the S85D from the beginning was February (whereas P85Ds were promised for December.) They deliberately put the P85Ds in front from the intro speech on, whether for profit margin, or publicity, or just because they figured they'd be selling more of them (or whatever other arcane reason I haven't figured out.)
    Walter
     
  8. vvanders

    vvanders Member

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    Nothing happening with the 85D so you aren't hearing about it. I switched my order from 85 -> 85D right away and currently the dashboard is saying Late Feb so it's probably a while before you hear anything other than about the P85D.
     
  9. zwede

    zwede 2013 P85+

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    It's profit margin. Tesla has always been up front that high-margin cars will have priority. In the past a P85/P85+ would be built before the other configurations. Now it's the P85D.
     
  10. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    I Would not be surprised if the P85Ds end up accounting for the vast majority of Ds sold.

    The price difference between the S85D and the P85D is really only about $10K because part of what you pay extra for the P you get back when you sell it.

    IMHO it is a no brainer to pay $10K more for the level of performance the P85D delivers and you are going to have an easier time selling it as well.

    We scheduled our P85D delivery for February to get a 2015 model and get the next gen seats and I can't imagine getting an S85D. Even if we were financially constrained, we would have waited a year to save up some money and get a P85D than get an S85D.
     
  11. RAW84

    RAW84 Member

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    I disagree. As a soon to be P85D owner, I would've definitely went with the 85D if they were doing December 14 deliveries.

    The increase in cost plus the decrease in range would've swayed me in that direction. For me, the desire for a D us purely the desire for an AWD car.

    Isn't/wasn't the difference between the 85 and the P85 'only' ~$10k? And wasn't the 85 the best selling?
     
  12. tga

    tga Active Member

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    Don't count on it. I've been following the used market closely, and for 14-18 month old cars with 20k or less miles on them, the price delta between a P85 and S85 is around $5k. I know of 2 cars locally that just sold. I don't know what the final price was, but the S85 had an asking of $70, and the P85 $75k.

    Granted, current data may be a blip on the radar (maybe more P85 owners than S85 owners are upgrading to the P85D at the moment, leading to more P85's on the market), but depending on how long you plan to keep the car, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices converge.
     
  13. breser

    breser AutoPilot Nostradamus

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    This is what I call stretch rationalization. You know what you want so you stretch really far to find a way to rationalize it. The upgrade cost for 85D to P85D is $19k, $21k if you go from leather to next gen seats with the upgrade. It's not $10k. You have no idea what the resale market is going to be like.

    Things that can mess up your idea that you're going to get back half of that premium to upgrade to the P85D:

    * P85D probably will go through rear tires faster simply due to the bigger rear motor (you may eat up some of that $10k buying tires you wouldn't have bought).
    * P85D has less range than the 85D, they may be desirable to a certain segment but I suspect the 85D will hold value better.
    * Options don't seem to hold their value as well as the base car. Even Tesla's calculation for the resale value guarantee only gives 43% of the price you paid to upgrade to the P.
    * That only really works if you sell the car sometime before 3 years. Some people don't do that.
    * You're not calculating the cost of money for keeping the $10k tied up for however long you are keeping the car. If you figure 5% cost of money that's another $1500 dollars in cost even if you're absolutely right and get back $10k of the $21k to upgrade. That pushes your cost up to at a minimum $13,576.25.
    * Tesla comes out with some other new hotness right around when you need to sell (pushing the resale value down due to the market being flooded) in order to realize your limit on the upgrade cost.

    There is really no way the P85D is going to be most of the Ds. The availability in December has pushed some people into P cars that wouldn't have otherwise (e.g. people with green and brown 85D orders that moved their order to a P85D in order to preserve their color). The vast majority of the public just simply doesn't care about or want the performance that the P provides. I fall into this camp. I could have bought a P85D, I'm getting an 85D. By all means if you want a P85D get one, but don't presume everyone is the same as you.

    The reason there's not much talk about 85D orders right now is simply that there's nothing to talk about. Everyone is sitting in the queue. The only thing to talk about would be that some people have been pushed from February to Late February or Late February to March. Come mid to late January there will probably be people who are talking about what's going on with their 85D orders.
     
  14. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    If you're looking to rationalize either of these cars on an economic basis, you seriously need to give your head a couple of shakes, and do the math again.
     
  15. swengl

    swengl Member

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    I placed my order for an 85D a few days ago and late March is what I've been told for delivery.
     
  16. Jaff

    Jaff Active Member

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    The same here...my wife didn't want the performance mode (only wanted AWD), but more importantly, didn't want to wait until Feb 2015...

     
  17. erichmond

    erichmond Member

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    Hope this isn't off topic or in another thread. But I'm wondering if any roadster owners are trading in the roadster to get a S85D or P85D?

    Thanks.
     
  18. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure some are. There seems to be slightly more Roadster for sale in the past month than I'm used to seeing, and I think at least a few of the ads have mentioned that they are selling because they have a P85D.

    But in terms of total numbers, it's probably not many. There aren't many Roadster owners, and only a small fraction of them are likely to do what you asked about.
     

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