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Pack Performance and Launch Mode Limits

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Ingineer, Dec 15, 2016.

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  1. hostman

    hostman Member

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    What we can be confident in, and I'm going to bring my old pal Occam's Razor in again, is that a f***-up happened at Tesla and they tried to sweep it under the rug, likely in one of the dumbest possible ways. Now they are going to have to deal with the warranty claims, when they occur. Just like every other high-end performance car that has experienced a design screw-up. BMW, for instance, replaces both car batteries at every oil change for some of the turbo models. Nissan had to eat GT-R transmissions. Tesla will analyze the scope of the problem and decide if they should incentivize us to upgrade packs or pay for the problem as it happens. Likely many of us with this issue would happily upgrade to P100D performance at a reasonable price if offered.
     
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  2. CraZ8

    CraZ8 Member

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    I would happily upgrade the battery to P100D performance if offered at a reasonable price if it was less than the hit to trade in for a new car. You would have to assume there have been no incremental changes / improvements to the fuse/ wiring harness/ motors etc. that would then be the weak link in an upgraded car though.
     
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  3. bhzmark

    bhzmark Supporting Member

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    Or they were just over conservative in implementing the limits. I don't know, and neither do you.
     
  4. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    CraZ8,
    How about a 100 limited to your car's current current levels? You get the extra oomph of lower voltage sag along with extra range and major changes to the chassis are not needed. I'd help offset Tesla's cost of battery for that upgrade.
     
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  5. hostman

    hostman Member

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    They certainly were overly-conservative in implementing these limits. I just met with our Road Ranger and he confirmed as much, as well as that my vehicle has no detected battery problems or any other issues. Update in 2 weeks is what he is hearing.
     
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  6. hostman

    hostman Member

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    Hmm, that would be a tougher nut to crack, I don't know that I'd willingly shell out as much for that, maybe 3-4k for the extra range...
     
  7. bhzmark

    bhzmark Supporting Member

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    That's a knowledgeable Road Ranger to confirm that this was just an overly conservative limit, and not a design screw-up, and thus no avalanche of warranty and post-warranty repairs to be coming. In other words, I think you missed my point . . . but no matter.

    A local service center person called me and we spoke at length. This person seemed sincere in sharing what they knew, but that was limited and not very different from what was in other Tesla communications shared on this thread except:

    All of the examples of usage that would ever trigger the limit or would ever cause longevity concerns were focused on Launch Mode usage.

    To clarify, I asked if mere WOTs when in ludicrous or also with MBP, would also trigger either the soon-to-be-disabled limit, or also cause any excessive early wear. Instead of answering directly the answer was a pivot, Kellyanne-Conway-like, to just repeating that they monitored overall use and would notify if there was any usage that indicated anything should be checked and tested.

    The overall tenor was Launch Mode usage does definitely cause additional wear from use, but what means is unclear. there have been no problems that they have ever heard of from repeated enthusiastic acceleration, including actual repeated launch mode use.
     
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  8. alloverx

    alloverx Member

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    So presumably the counters will still be kept but no software action taken. i.e. the If statement will be commented out. Might get interesting once they get some data and potentially email you if you are getting "close to something" during the warranty period.
     
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  9. hostman

    hostman Member

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    I will say - this guy has been pretty spot-on in the past, so I believe him if he bothered to tell me something. I understand it is reasonable to typically doubt the knowledge level at technician level, agreed. I will agree it seems clear that overstress is at least theorized if not yet realized.

    Yes. Statement today was "we're just going to cover it if it fails." Probably doesn't preclude offering favorable upgrade terms, however, especially for those of us who are a tad more ... spirited. :p
     
  10. PaulC

    PaulC Member

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    To give them the most charitable speculation of why the counter happened, they probably had a small number of major failures in v2 or v3 P90DL packs after hard use. Maybe not even on customer vehicles. They looked at the logs and said oh ****, these cars are going to fall apart after XXX launches. So they panic and throw in a limit of XXX/2 launches to cap the worst case scenario at something other than widespread battery replacements on the flagship performance model.

    Fast forward to now. Turns out the cars aren't falling apart, or if they are it's very rare. And then word gets out about the counter.

    Now they have to balance the cost of lost incremental sales, which is enormous because the P100DL is super high margin, against the cost of saying "no counter, and we'll cover everything". That cost is probably not as high as people think...many performance cars never see a track, even fewer get raced frequently, and the failure rate could still be low. Going 0-50mph at a few stoplights to show off is likely not the same wear profile as half a dozen passes on a 1/4 mile every weekend, so counting WOT events could be overestimating the damage.

    I doubt they are worried about the warranty exposure from this reversal.
     
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  11. hostman

    hostman Member

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    You are very likely correct. I feel like the eventual consequences are extremely manageable.
     
  12. CraZ8

    CraZ8 Member

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    So you are basically saying upgrade to the performance of a P90D V1 with a bit more range. Probably for 20k. No I would have to have the a near equivelant of a p100D in performance to consider the switch. I mean for about 45 k I can upgrade to a real p100d over my 2015 P85DL and get a new nose, lights, LTE auto pilot 2.0 etc etc
     
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  13. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    #2673 stopcrazypp, Jan 23, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2017
    Yes, they decided to change the limits afterwards, but my point was we don't know what the limits are in the first place (for example what if they assumed a 20 year life). It's possible that with no limiters they are still going to result in a reasonable life, just not has high as they specified.

    I'm not sure what you mean by 0-60 triggering something that 0-155 does not. You seem to be implying something worse happens at 60-155 If I'm getting it right.

    On that subject, the peak power (which will be proportional to peak current from battery) is around the 60mph mark for the P85. As you head toward higher mph, the back emf makes its so power drops.
    http://www.dragtimes.com/images_dyno/25123-2013-Tesla-Model-S-Dyno.jpg

    P90d hits a plateau instead of an explicit peak, but the midpoint is still around the 60 mph point (with rapid drop after 90mph).
    https://electrek.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/tesla-model-s-vs-model-x-p90d-ludicrous-power-graph.png?w=897&h=498

    So peak heat load on the battery would be around that mark, not actually at highest mph.

    To look at motor heating, the peak current point for the motor is what matters. And motor current would be proportional to torque. For the P85, torque starts dropping off around 45mph as it starts to hit the power limits.
    https://i.stack.imgur.com/cg470.png
    The P85D peaks around 30mph.
    http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/27143-2015-Tesla-Model-S-Dyno.jpg

    Maybe what you are talking about applies to an ICE, where high rpms means higher power and peak power is achieved at the maximum speed:
    http://www.corvetteblogger.com/images/content/092408_4.jpg

    However, EVs and electric motors work differently.

    Edit: I found the temperature limits I was talking about, from the Roadster days:
    Vitals: What do those temperature bars mean?
    Tesla tweaked these with software updates, and it was easy to see in the Roadster days because the diagnostic functions were accessible by owners (it's no longer the case in the Model S).
     
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  14. hostman

    hostman Member

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    Agreed, that is fully possible.

    Let me explain a bit better - let's say it takes 2.6 seconds to get to 60mph @ 480kW = 1,248,000 Joules.
    AutoTopNL claims a P90DL takes 29 seconds to get to 155mph, let's say at an average of 400kW = 11,600,000 Joules.

    Basically, we are dissipating roughly 10x the total energy in a very short period of time (ie much much shorter than the cooling system/heatsinks' time constants). Thus, if the vehicle is able to handle *that* then it should be able to handle roughly 1/10th the thermal load easily.
     
  15. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Talking of Occam's Razor, I do have a hard time agreeing that the simplets answer would be counter-based limitations being applied after mere months on Performance powertrain would be symptomatic of protecting a 20 year lifespan. Especially one where an 8 year warranty battery is quite likely at the center of the issues.

    I mean, sure I am one of those people who appreciates the shades of grey and uncertainties. Do I agree it is possible Tesla was protecting a 20 year lifespan with the counter limitations - sure, in theory. But, really, at the same time it seems very far fetched to use a number like that. I would say the simplest, likeliest answer is the counters - being applied as soon as they were - were protecting a lifespan much shorter than that, perhaps around the battery warranty period. If I had to pick a number from hat, I'd at the very least pick 10 years, rather than 20.

    I don't think the known facts fit very well with the 20 year idea - especially if taken to mean the counter limiters were designed to help reach that goal.

    If you are just saying Tesla has a general goal of 20 year lifespan for their powertrains, then perhaps they could, but even there the 8 year battery warranty and understood battery replacement schedules kind of suggests differently. 10 years before major replacements, sure. 15 years, maybe... The same battery after 20 years? Hmm.

    It just seems overly generous to throw around a number of 20 years in this context IMO. Overly optimistic.
     
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  16. TSLA Pilot

    TSLA Pilot Member

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    Yeah, why care about stupid stuff like the environment, and trying to get Tesla to adopt environmentally-sound interior choices and cut the hypocrisy . . . . Perhaps there will be more room for people that care about our one and only planet and the state we leave it in for generations that follow for this year's meeting.

    I am sorry that if our efforts to get Tesla to pull in one direction--towards making better environmental choices--offend your world view.

    Perhaps you need more facts to open your mind? Please see below.

    Thanks.

    “If you are not a part of the solution, you are a part of the problem.” ― Eldridge Cleaver

    http://gizmodo.com/how-leather-is-slowly-killing-the-people-and-places-tha-1572678618

    What's Driving Deforestation?

    Leather: Bad for the Environment, Workers, Communities, and Animals | The Huffington Post
     
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  17. TSLA Pilot

    TSLA Pilot Member

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    How do we find the amp draw data?

    I purchased the PowerTools app due to this thread, but it's only providing kW. (Yes, I know i X v ='s Watts, but we have to assume voltage sag under load, no?)

    Unfortunately, while I am relieved that Tesla has rolled back Countergate, this has opened up a can of worms for those of us that have P90DL's that do NOT perform as well as those tested by Car and Driver and MotorTrend.
     
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  18. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    #2678 bonaire, Jan 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
    I would like to add to your bits about the environment the "Tesla Trade-in" plan of 12-18 month tech innovation. With AP 2.0 on HW2, you need to trade-in any HW1 or prior cars to get it. If HW2 is enhanced in 18 months, you may have to trade in again to get it. This feeds the CPO "down market" and keeps EVs flowing through the used-car segment. However, sustainable transportation really should be entirely OTA upgrade driven and not physical upgrades required. To be green, one would buy one car and keep it 10+ years. To be "fun" one simply upgrades every 1-2 years to the latest new version (if they can afford it). Heck, some guys even drive hard enough to have silly accidents leading to a new purchase. Maybe too much acceleration and performance in the wrong hands is not exactly green in the long run if it causes wasted resources.

    It's nit-picking, I know, but I plan to drive my cars usually 8+ years when i buy them and even have done this with ICE vehicles in the past in order to demand less from the world's resources. Some say that the 100 kWh upgrades were "needed" and yet some here on TMC have said that if the P85D was as fast as a P100DL, they wouldn't want or need those extra 15 kWh. Range is one segment while performance is another. With enough superchargers, 85 kWh may be easily enough for most drivers. And for others, 120KW-135KW is not fast enough for superchargers, so 350KW is being talked about. I do suspect that hardware upgrades or trade-ins will be required to utilize that, once it is brought forth. Will Model 3 be able to use the future 350KW charge rate? If that battery is 55kWh, then that is 7C charging and most likely some level of throttling will be done. The 100kWh and larger performance models of S, X and so on will most likely be able to use 350KW. Daily 3C charging may start to cause limitations on longevity of the NCA cells as well so perhaps some limits may be imposed on how many "Hot charges" will be allowed on the current cell chemistry. All EVs will be pushing their chemistries hard if the 350KW charging rates come to fruition. It could be that new chemistries of batteries will need to evolve before it really becomes commonplace. I suspect that 350KW will also be a "shared maximum" between A/B stalls on the supercharger. Two cars sharing a supercharger on A/B would most likely share the 350KW.

    All the changes above (faster superchargers, constant upgrades) are polishing-the-chrome. The real need for the EV movement is to get cheaper cars so more consumers can afford them. This means going down market with high volume and more supercharger locations to match. This is going to be an interesting time for the EV industry and Tesla. I keep saying it will take nearly two times the resources of today to sell twice the number of Model 3 for the same amount of revenue - so I am eager to see how things pan-out as things scale up and more "consumer class" buyers emerge.
     
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  19. TSLA Pilot

    TSLA Pilot Member

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    On your first point, a good concern, and one that I too have considered.

    Perhaps rationalization, but every MS that we've put into the "used MS stream" has, hopefully, hastened the day where all ground transport transitions to BEV's through the retirement of another fossil fuel using car? In other words, by buying as many MS's as we have (five or six among the family thus far) we both pull more cars from Fremont (very helpful for Tesla) and push more green, clean machines into the secondary market.

    Your thoughts?
     
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  20. JonMc

    JonMc Jon McNeill - Tesla President of Sales and Service

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    Just sent you a note on that -- in the works!
     
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