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Paid for FSD, when will I get the software?

Wondering if anyone else is in my boat. I figure a select few. We received delivery of our 2021 Model 3 with prepaid FSD on November 8, 2021, so well after FSD beta had been released. We keep hoping the software will one day show up but over a month later and nothing. Are we probably just out of luck until beta is complete? Asked around in other forums and the best responses I got were "probably on the next FSD update you'll get it." There have been at least 4 different updates since we received it. Again, just wondering if anyone else is in my boat. Or if anyone has received a new vehicle since beta was released and they got the software? (FTR I know how it works: first, receive the software update, second opt in, 3rd, drive 100 miles and achieve the threshold score, then receive beta access if granted by the Tesla gods--did I miss anything?)
 
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I also think a key point that almost everyone is somewhat missing here, is that it takes a fairly long time to graduate from the initial break-in firmware and begin receiving "normal" over-the-air updates. I wrote something very similar to this just a day or two ago in another thread. I took delivery for days before you did and I am still on 2021.35.102. My friend took delivery of a model 3 about 3 weeks prior to that and he also is still on 2021.35.102.

You are getting implications here that there may be something wrong, you may not have a good Wi-Fi connection, or that you may need to go back to Tesla Service to get them to "push" an update. I don't believe that any of this is true; I believe that you simply will need to wait like pretty much everyone else who has received delivery of a new Tesla this fall.

How long do we have to wait? That I don't know. It seems there may have been times in the past when break-in firmware was superseded relatively quickly, but that is not happening these days. I have read some speculation that the process could be taking longer because Tesla is in a mode of scrambling to keep deliveries moving along in the face of the chip shortages. Elan explained earlier in the year that Tesla has been able to keep production moving because they have an unusually high level of software programming talent on staff, and they are able to adapt modules to use different but available microcontrollers to replace unavailable ones. However, it would logically follow that cars with those redesigned modules must have different sub-versions of the firmware. So in 2021, we are seeing a proliferation of different software suites to support the changing hardware configurations. Obviously the highest priority is to get the software in place for delivery of cars, but then the follow-up is that production firmware releases have to be coded with all the correct look-up tables, to match each VIN batch with the appropriate, recently-developed sub-version that has all the correct firmwhere pieces to match the hardware build. This makes the management of production firmware more complicated than it should have been, and I'd guess it's a somewhat lower priority to get production firmware to fully support the newest cars - as they represent a moving target regarding sub-version configurations. If Tesla gets this wrong, then a new update push to those newer cars could exhibit at best a few strange bugs, and at worst a non-drivable or even a damaged car.

So I look every couple of days and I'd love to see one of the newer versions come out for my car, but I'm not holding my breath.

As another point of clarification, you did not pay for FSD beta in particular. "FSD beta" is the testing version of the feature Autosteer on City Streets, the feature listed as Coming Soon but not available today. You and I have in fact received the features that are listed under "Full Self-Driving Capability". As others have said, when you do start to receive the firmware updates that other owners get, then you can expect to see the opt-in request button and begin the journey of achieving the safety score, being admitted into the beta program and even then, seeing if you are one of the first or or one of the last to get any particular new release of the FSD beta.

Sorry to be so long with his explanation, but I felt you were getting encouragement to believe that there is something wrong with your particular firmware update process, and I feel strongly this is not the case. I'm not trying to defendTesla or castigate anyone else, just trying to explain what you are seeing with your car and what expectations are realistic.
I have a data point against this theory. Took delivery of a new Model 3 LR on 12/14 (w/ version 2021.35.103) and received my first software update this morning, less than one week later (version 2021.44.6).

I also had the Request FSD Beta button right from the start after subscribing to $199/month FSD, on my factory firmware.
 
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Tam

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Nov 25, 2012
10,758
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I’m hoping FSD will not stay in Beta FOREVER like our Autowipers…just saying!

What are your thoughts?

Forever is a long time but I won't be surprised that autonomous driving won't be solved during our lives time.

First of all, the system needs to reliably avoiding collisions without the help of human drivers.

Waymo has achieved that with its robotaxi but only in Chandler. AZ and with sensor fusion.
 
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The latest information I've seen said there are about 11,000 current FSD Beta users and about 150,000 waiting in the queue. It was a fairly rapid expansion from the initial 1,000 FSD Beta users to the current level, so I'd expect to get all of those in the queue that don't have abysmal safety scores to get on the narrow beta program in the next few months, and this group will probably expand to a few hundred thousand.

Once it has been reasonably well established by the narrow beta testing group that it isn't immediately causing large numbers of deaths and chaos on the streets I think it will go to wide release beta (just like stop at traffic lights and NOA highway). I'd anticipate this happening next year based on the current rate of expansion of the beta test group. It will stay in wide release beta for a long time (just like stop at traffic lights and NOA highway). During that period huge amounts of data will be collected to refine it and verify its ability to drive safely (per the stated "reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience"). One million users would generate a billion miles collectively by driving 1,000 miles each, so billions of miles could be collectively driven within months. The Dojo will be needed for analyzing that huge flow of data and incorporating it into the FSD's AI. I think we'd be looking at at least years for that process to achieve a high level or autonomy, and then thoroughly and rigorously validate it.

Then regulatory approval (whatever that even means and will look like across various jurisdictions) can be sought for it be labelled SAE level 3 or greater. If and when that is obtained, they can officially advise drivers that it doesn't need constant monitoring, and no need to be ready to take over at any moment. The nag and driver attention monitoring can be relaxed. There will almost certainly still be situations where the system cannot negotiate a particular maneuver but recognizes the situation and either safely hands over to the human driver or terminates the journey, making it a level 3 system. I think we'll be in that phase for a long time given the huge number of low frequency edge cases. Maybe decades. Maybe not even solvable with a narrow AI like FSD and requires a general AI. If and when it can truly handle anything on the road then that would be either 4 or 5, depending on if it's geofenced or not, which is something of a philosophical question. Is it geofenced if you can only use FSD on roads, or does it need be capable of off-road driving? It it geofenced if it doesn't have regulatory approval in all 50 states and needs to be disabled for journeys through Wisconsin? What about Canada? Moldova? Antarctica?
 
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JHCCAZ

Electrified Engineer
Supporting Member
Feb 2, 2021
540
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Tucson
I have a data point against this theory. Took delivery of a new Model 3 LR on 12/14 (w/ version 2021.35.103) and received my first software update this morning, less than one week later (version 2021.44.6).

I also had the Request FSD Beta button right from the start after subscribing to $199/month FSD, on my factory firmware.
It seems that everyone is getting updated today. People who have bought their cars in October November and December and were waiting all this time. In your case it wasn't a long time because you happened to get your car shortly before the update came out.

I was getting a little concerned because friends were reporting getting updates and mine wasn't doing anything despite being connected to Wi-Fi, and despite the fact that I Remotely woke it up and started the climate.When I actually went to the car, got inside and checked the software on the screen, then almost immediately it started the download process.
 
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Thank you, but I use auto-steer as much as possible. The problem is that during auto-steer is when the phantom threats are imagined by my Plaid S. And when I check my daily score and the events that caused the daily score faults, I notice that yes the phantom alert is what caused my daily score to be degraded.
I just took my first ever trip after signing up for Safety Score Beta. I had one phantom FCW event while using auto-steer and my safety score after the trip was concluded is 100. So I can confirm: FCWs while using AP doesn’t affect your score. Keep in mind that what does affect your safety score is any event that would trigger a FCW with the FCW set to ‘medium’. If you’ve got it set to ‘late’, but while driving without AP engaged you have an event the would have triggered a FCW were it set to ‘medium’, then it will hit your safety score, even though you won’t hear or see any actual FCW while driving.
8F1119A6-C8B0-44BC-8A45-47125D59826F.png
 
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It seems that everyone is getting updated today. People who have bought their cars in October November and December and were waiting all this time. In your case it wasn't a long time because you happened to get your car shortly before the update came out.

I was getting a little concerned because friends were reporting getting updates and mine wasn't doing anything despite being connected to Wi-Fi, and despite the fact that I Remotely woke it up and started the climate.When I actually went to the car, got inside and checked the software on the screen, then almost immediately it started the download process.
I got a notification on my phone the evening of the update informing me of a new download and if I wanted to begin it. I wonder if it has to do with the settings for system and updates notifications.
 
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I just took my first ever trip after signing up for Safety Score Beta. I had one phantom FCW event while using auto-steer and my safety score after the trip was concluded is 100. So I can confirm: FCWs while using AP doesn’t affect your score. Keep in mind that what does affect your safety score is any event that would trigger a FCW with the FCW set to ‘medium’. If you’ve got it set to ‘late’, but while driving without AP engaged you have an event the would have triggered a FCW were it set to ‘medium’, then it will hit your safety score, even though you won’t hear or see any actual FCW while driving.
Congrats!! I got a ... 76 😆. Also Rob thank you for the post before with SO much awesome information. Would you be so kind as to lay out all the acronyms you use? I can't figure them all out. Such as FCW (forward collision warning?), SAE, NOA, any others relevent. You sound highly informed and I appreciate your contribution to this thread!

Edit add: After today's driving I'm up to 87 😁

@JHCCAZ did you get the opt in as well at last?
 
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No worries 🙂

My safety score dropped to 98 after it says I did “hard braking” and “aggressive turning”. I managed to get it back up to 99, but I’m driving extremely carefully even for me, and this is getting to be a bit much.

FCW = Forward Collision Warning
NOA = Navigate on Autopilot
SAE = Society of Automotive Engineers

The SAE set a series of levels for automobile automation and defined what each level would be, numbered 1 through 5 (or 0 through 5, with 0 being no automation at all).

Level 1 is shared control of the vehicle between the driver and computer. Cruise control is an example: you control the steering wheel, computer controls the gas/brake.

Level 2 is full control of the vehicle by the computer, but constant driver attention is required and intervention may be called for at any moment. This is Tesla’s Autopilot. FSD is also currently level 2, but should be progressing to a higher level at some point.

Level 3 is full control of the vehicle by the computer and constant monitoring is not required. The vehicle may not be able to handle all situations, but it won’t require immediate driver intervention to prevent a dangerous situation. For example, some edge case not foreseen in its programming confuses it, so it notifies the driver to take over. If the driver does not, it will safely park itself. This is where FSD is headed.

Level 4 is full control of the vehicle by the computer and no driver intervention is ever required. It can handle everything that ever happens on the road. The catch is that it can only do this within a specific area e.g. Waymo’s driverless taxis which only operate in Phoenix, AZ (the Waymo taxis aren’t truly level 4 since remote drivers are still occasionally called on to handle edge cases. This makes it more like level 3 with geofencing, which doesn’t neatly fit into any SAE level).

Level 5 is total control by the computer anywhere. No human intervention ever required. Just tell it where to go and it goes there.

I don’t think Tesla refers directly to the SAE standards in terms of promising customers this or that level of autonomy. But they have used the levels in technical descriptions such as to regulatory bodies like the California DMV. Elon Musk has also been directly asked at presentations if the FSD features he’s referring to were SAE level 5 and he said “yes” (incredibly dumb thing to say IMO).
 
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Thanks all so much for the info and replies. My husband did some "homework" today as I call it and he texted me saying "You probably won't like FSD. It's jerky, makes dumb decisions, stops for no reason, and causes nausea." 😂😬
The Full Self Driving Beta is like the software version of Elon Musk: :)
  • Both do idiotic things but have moments of shear genius.
  • Both have little tantrums and pout but both are paths to the future.
FSD Beta, flawed as it is, is like looking years into the future for other cars. It's worth the hassle.
 
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...Edit add: After today's driving I'm up to 87 😁
At some point, I realized it would take 30 days for my scores below 99 to fall off. So here's what I did.
If I ever touch the brakes, forget to turn like a grandma, or get cut off and have a Forward Collision Warning, I Delete the Bad Trip or Event.
I use TeslaScope, a free website that shows much better detail on your Safety Score. (I gladly pay $3 to support the project.)

I have beta tested software forever. The Full Self Driving Beta is unlike anything I have ever seen and worth the effort.
 
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If the driver does not, it will safely park itself.
The SAE taxonomy says nothing about the car "parking itself" in Level 3. Achieving a "Minimimal Risk Condition," i.e. pulling over to the shoulder and parking, if the fallback driver doesn't respond is only defined for Level 4. In L3 systems, the fallback driver must be available to take over in a system failure or exit of the "Operational Design Domain" (ODD), i.e., moving outside of a situation that it is designed for, almost immediately. The 2021 taxonomy did add that a Failure Mitigation Strategy of bringing the vehicle "to a controlled stop in path" MAY be available in some L3 ADSes when, for example, the fallback driver fails to respond to multiple requests to take control. This is specifically differentiated from the ADS achieving a Minimal Risk Condition (e.g., "parking"), however, which is only defined for L4.
The catch is that it can only do this within a specific area... This makes it more like level 3 with geofencing, which doesn’t neatly fit into any SAE level).
Geofencing an area could be considered part of the limited ODD of a L4 ADS, but a lot of other things may be as well. For example, a L4 ADS may not drive in the rain or snow, or when construction cones are detected, or when traffic conditions reach a certain level, etc. The primary difference between L3 and L4 is L3 must have an available fallback driver, and L4 doesn't.
 
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At some point, I realized it would take 30 days for my scores below 99 to fall off. So here's what I did.
If I ever touch the brakes, forget to turn like a grandma, or get cut off and have a Forward Collision Warning, I Delete the Bad Trip or Event.
I use TeslaScope, a free website that shows much better detail on your Safety Score. (I gladly pay $3 to support the project.)

I have beta tested software forever. The Full Self Driving Beta is unlike anything I have ever seen and worth the effort.
Well here's a fun update, after 2021.44.25.2 (holiday update), steering wheel reset to delete a trip does NOT work anymore. Tested this twice, the drives are saved to the safety score when the car comes back online after the reboot.
 
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I now have a Safety score of 98. So what happens once one achieves a safety score of 98+? Are drivers with a score of 100 at the front of the queue? Is it just another waiting game at this point? I don't expect to see the beta for a long time given everyone's references to the 150k+ queue. Do I have to maintain my safety score whilst in the queue (guessing I do)? Is there another button to push or something after achieving threshold safety score?
 
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Over the past few days I’ve had a safety score of between 98 and 100 depending on what I’ve been doing. Just now (30 minutes ago) I got notice of a new software update (2021.44.25.6) which is an FSB beta 10.8 with the holiday update stuff (UI v11). It’s installing now.
WE JUST GO INTO BETA TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My mind is BLOWN. What happened to the 150k+ queue?? Did they ALL just get in too then!? Also, we couldn't find the release notes prior to installing. How did you? We looked but just decided to install and see what it was. I could not be more shocked. Take home lessons from our first drive: FSD does NOT like left turns. 😆
 
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It’s amazing how closely our experiences parallel. I haven’t tried it yet. Have friends visiting and don’t want to scare them with it. For the release notes I just took the version number (2021.44.25.6) and googled it. First hit was release notes on notateslaapp.com

When you say it doesn’t like left hand turns, do you mean it executes them poorly, or it navigates to avoid them when possible?
 
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