I do not think Trump is competent or sane enough to know what would appease the market. I would expect him to try something which he thought would make the markets go up, and because he knows nothing, fail spectacularly, causing markets to go down.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
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I do not think Trump is competent or sane enough to know what would appease the market. I would expect him to try something which he thought would make the markets go up, and because he knows nothing, fail spectacularly, causing markets to go down.
Just watched Scott Black on CNBC. He feels nothing is going to change for the overall market unless the tariff nonsense ends. Personally I don't see Trump accepting that his trade insanity is a problem. The talking heads on CNBC are saying that today's action means a bottom has been reached because they blame most of the bloodletting on tax selling and EOY mix adjustments and the market roared back almost 900 points at the end of the day with no real news.
I don't see how a bottom is reached with no changes in what is scaring everyone and damaging many bottom lines. TSLA continues following the general market today. Will good news for deliveries and earnings for TSLA break that even if the market continues to head downward? I'm betting yes as people have to put their money somewhere and evidence of a new cash cow in Tesla should drive investors no matter what anti-Tesla propaganda says. All we need is for Tesla to deliver good news. Can't wait to see Pappa Fox's take on the trading today.
I'm showing here the classic company valuation from FastGraphs. The orange line is the estimated fair value (average of all analysts) assuming the company is doing well and there are great opportunities ahead (P/E=30). Share price is often ahead of valuation due to high expectations. So my guess is that by early 2021 it will be somewhere in the $500 area unless there will be some unexpected market share gain (then it goes well over $1k) or issues. If they don't do well, the fair price in 2021 will be around $250.
Before that it will bounce wildly since there is no earnings history that could bound the price. So it moves on expectations and news right now. It can go to $600 one day and to $250 the other day.
Oh, didn't notice there was a separate daytrading/swingtrading thread.
Was steady buying pressure and good volume on the end of the day today when it found strong support at 300$. Rallying from 302 to 317, now consolidating on 315-ish. Significant move, also marking a higher low on the daily chart since yesterday.
Still correlating strongly with SPY suggesting the overall market is what's mostly been dragging it down. I think 302 was a good dip buy. Let's see if we get a continuation tomorrow or into the new year. I have a feeling in this vacuum of news the overall market will decide.
Was steady buying pressure and good volume on the end of the day today when it found strong support at 300$. Rallying from 302 to 317, now consolidating on 315-ish. Significant move, also marking a higher low on the daily chart since yesterday.
Still correlating strongly with SPY suggesting the overall market is what's mostly been dragging it down. I think 302 was a good dip buy. Let's see if we get a continuation tomorrow or into the new year. I have a feeling in this vacuum of news the overall market will decide.
Ignore the orange line before 2018. That's just "artifact" of negative earnings.
P/E = share price / earnings per share
See the price and basic earnings history below. Since earnings were negative, P/E is not valid (negative).
For the last quarter P=$341.1 EPS=$1.82; P/E = 341.1/1.82/4 (divided by 4 since earnings is quarterly) = 46.9
The previous chart is yearly, and when adding all the 2018 earnings together so far it is still negative. That's why it's 0 at 12/31/2018.
OOPS, I found a bug on the website. For some reason it uses weird share prices on the quarterly chart! It is probably an issue with their data supplier. But the earnings data is good.
Here is a video explaining the tool. Hope it helps. The author has many explanatory videos on Youtube.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
I should have made my question clear - I was purely talking about short term (like one or 2 days !).
Regarding Wednesday Dec 26's TSLA trading, approximately 1.3 million shares of 8.2 million shares volume were shorts covering. I calculated this number through using a float of about 128 million shares and noting that the percent of TSLA's float held by shorts changed by almost exactly 1% on the 26th. I get my numbers through a daily email from Ihor Dusaniwsky called "short sight".
Thursday's post will be up within an hour.
Thursday's post will be up within an hour.
Today the broader markets had another panic attack but bargain hunters took over in the final hour and 40 minutes of trading, which resulted in both the DOW and NASDAQ closing up for the day. The scenario offered a perfect opportunity for TSLA shorts to do their dirty work, and with 61% of the selling tagged "short", they likely manipulated quite a bit. I have reproduced scale TSLA and NASDAQ charts below for illustrative purposes.
Dec 27 TSLA daily trading
Dec 27 NASDAQ trading
In a perfect world, a tech-like stock such as TSLA would trade at a multiple to the NASDAQ both going up and going down. If the NASDAQ dropped 2%, a drop of 3% for a typical tech stock would be reasonable. On a day such as today, in theory you'd see volatile stocks close up, but in reality typical tech stocks closed down about 0.6% or so today because they probably are a bit more volatile on the way down than on the way up. OK. What happened, then, with TSLA and its drop of 3%? There was very little news of substance released today, so I think it was trading dynamics, and the biggest difference between TSLA and other tech companies is the effect of Tesla's short-sellers. Take a look at the TSLA daily chart and the NASDAQ daily chart above. Notice that TSLA descended quite a bit steeper than the NASDAQ. This I attribute to both higher-volatility of a tech-like stock and even more to classic dip on steroids efforts by the shorts. After 2:20pm, the NASDAQ started recovering at a quick pace but notice how much more subdued the climb of TSLA was. Again, I attribute the slower climb of TSLA to efforts by TSLA shorts. In many ways, the day's fearful descent followed by a sprint upwards in the final couple hours of trading was an excellent environment for the shorts to operate and the day's results bear out this theory.
Remember, though, that the shorts can affect the trading on days when fear is in the air and volume is light, but on days like yesterday when the TSLA steamroller is up to speed, shorts are helpless at stopping the climb.
The ridiculously low 8.6 million shares traded at TSLA on such a volatile day actually spells out a threat to the shorts. Through constantly harassing the TSLA shareholders and turning the stock price into a roller coaster ride, shorts have effectively chased large portions of TSLA investors away. That's the bad news. The good news is that those investors who remain don't scare easy. They're hardened veterans for the most part and are not swayed by the typical CNBC or Business Insider FUD. Consequently, they're not particularly inclined to sell, even on volatile days, and herein lies the threat to shorts. Should Q4 P&D report or ER get a robust climb started, current longs are not likely to sell quickly. They've demonstrated their steadfastness during these trying times, and I suspect they're going to want a pretty penny to part with their shares. Consequently, the combination of rapidly-rising stock price and low volume will spell real trouble for those shorts trying to jump ship and cover. Can't wait.
Shorts were tagged with selling 61% of TSLA today, a very high number suggesting lots of manipulations
Dusaniwsky's latest post points out that even at these low prices of TSLA, shorts are still down hundreds of millions for the year.
Conditions:
* Dow up 260 (1.14%)
* NASDAQ up 25 (0.38%)
* TSLA 316.13, down 9.96 (3.05%)
* TSLA volume 8.6M shares
* Oil 45.74, up 1.13 (2.53%)
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged as short: 61%
At approximately 8:20am this morning news articles broke the story that Tesla had named two independent directors, in accordance with the company's SEC settlement. Both Larry Ellison and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson look like solid choices and the market breathed a sigh of relief by elevating TSLA well above 330 in pre-market trading. Alas, much of that gain was quickly chipped away, but then the NASDAQ opened considerably higher and despite a macro dip between 10am and 11am, TSLA started climbing to regain that pre-market price. About 3pm the macros peaked and then headed downwards sharply. The Dow gave up all its gains and the NASDAQ most of its gains, but TSLA showed great strength by holding onto most all of its gains today. Bravo!
The NASDAQ was way up at 3pm but quickly lost most of its gains and closed barely above even for the day
How do we explain TSLA's relative strength today? The director appointments certainly helped and today is the first day in which a policy is theoretically in place to monitor Elon's Tesla-stock price-affecting Tweets, so that's a likely positive in the eyes of investors as well. Another issue may be that in recent sessions TSLA has reclaimed nearly half of the stock price loss of this most recent dip. Expectations are that TSLA is heading back to the upper bollinger band now, and that's a real positive. The big question mark, of course, is what will macros do?
Shorts were tagged with 59% of TSLA selling today. Those manipulating TSLA lost lots of money with today's efforts because of the significant climb throughout the day. Nearly 800,000 shares of TSLA traded hands in the final minute of market trading as those who were trying to manipulate the stock down covered from shares of those who were trying to manipulate the stock price up near close today. It was another case of nearly 10% of TSLA trading taking place in the final minute of market trading, which gives you some idea of the extent of the manipulations going on with this stock.
On the tech chart you can see that TSLA is nearly halfway back to where it was before this recent dip. The upper bollinger band is at 387 right now, giving lots of headroom for climbing, but that upper bb will start coming down as volatility subsides. Also, TSLA needs to get above 344 fairly soon to prevent the mid bb from descending and pulling upper and lower bbs down with it.
For the week, TSLA closed at 333.87, up 14.10 from last Friday's 319.77. We've started the recovery from the dip, Fingers crossed that the macros settle down. If they behave themselves, TSLA should gain further as it positions for the Q4 P&D reports. Those reports should come out at the end of next week. That's good timing for a further rise of TSLA as positioning for the reports. I continue to believe that Troy's and Bloomberg's estimates are low this time. My personal expectations are for Model 3 production and deliveries to exceed 60K units in Q4. Let's see how it shakes out. Have a great weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow down 76 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.08%)
* TSLA 333.87, up 17.74 (5.61%)
* TSLA volume 9.9M shares
* Oil 45.33, up 0.72 (1.61%)
* Percent of selling tagged to shorts: 59%
To add to the technical analysis from Papafox. A pretty unique candle yesterday.
Have a look how the candle is squeezed between the 50,100 and 200 moving averages. Quite impressive.
Have a look how the candle is squeezed between the 50,100 and 200 moving averages. Quite impressive.
Noticed. The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages (and 20) often act as support and resistance, turning from resistance to support if they break. When multiple moving averages end up being the same price it gets stronger.
If it can break this level it will most likely go to 350. Breaking 350 and turning it into support will be a trigger for approaching 370-380.
So there are some decent entries that may come up. Whether or not we get to these triggers will depend largely on the overall market I believe. There's been strong correlation the last days. TSLA does have the catalyst of good news from friday (hiring the new people for Tesla board).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That's right. You can see it almost tick by tick. I think this means the bots have taken over from regular shorts - that's why we hardly see any regular morning dip as well.
TSLA short sellers, be afraid, be very afraid. This week, Tesla unleashed its secret weapon... Papafox washing new Teslas and making sure that all the service center's Teslas get delivered this quarter. What's it like running your hands all over brand-new Teslas? Well, if given the choice, I'd rather be a photographer for the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition, but otherwise it's not a bad volunteer gig.
For the above reason, it'll be Jan 1 before I post Friday's update.
The final trading day of the year was, symbolically, a day with heavy short manipulations and some small news turned into FUD in order to facilitate the mischief. Electrek.co published a story about 3,000 Model 3s remaining unsold as the final days of 2018 approached. Bears ran with this story, suggesting Tesla is having demand issues with Model 3 and using the story as an aid in beating down the SP today. In actuality, 3,000 unsold Model 3s is just a few days worth of production and is probably a smaller number than many of us would suppose existed. It was much ado about nothing. Nonetheless, by comparing the TSLA chart above to the NASDAQ chart below you can see the gamesmanship. The idea is to accentuate the dips and hold back the rises in order to disguise the manipulations, and the NASDAQ's lumpy trading worked out to be a perfect environment for such mischief.
Both TSLA and the broader markets opened higher amidst speculation that progress is being made on tariffs. To no surprise, as the NASDAQ lost ground and bottomed out at about 11:30am, TSLA followed, but with some inappropriately deep dives brought about by heavy selling in one minute segments. For example, looking at TSLA's initial dip into the red we saw 20K, 21K, and 34K shares sold in one minute intervals, which managed to deepen TSLA's descents significantly compared to the NASDAQ's. The NASDAQ bounced back from a slight dip into the red at about 11:30am and climbed for two hours, but look at TSLA during that time. We saw icicle after icicle as selling in big clumps prevented TSLA from recovering with the NASDAQ. Finally, in the final hour, bargain hunters started buying TSLA and bidding the price back up again. The net result was TSLA performed about 1% worse than the NASDAQ today, primarily due to FUD and manipulations. Notice that between the first and last minutes of the day, nearly 400K shares traded hands, giving manipulators nice opportunities to enter or exit without bumping the stock price up.
The NASDAQ gained 0.77% today but manipulations caused TSLA to lag behind
Shorts were tagged with 66% of TSLA selling on the final trading day of 2018, an especially high number which suggests the reason for TSLA's small loss on a day with positive macros. We've seen this high a percentage of selling by shorts just a few times in the past year. What's interesting is that it is occurring during a time of relative covering by shorts. According to short sight, published by Ihor Dusaniwsky, TSLA short interest was down to 21.06% of float at close on Friday, the lowest level we've seen in a long time. I think it's a case of that scene in gangster movies when one of the thugs says to the next, "Cover me, I'm gonna make a break for it!"
With positive feedback from Dec 31 end of deliveries at TSLA, the shorts may have a more expensive exit soon. Look on page 2 of the 2019 TMC Investor's thread and you'll see a photo of Elon and employees celebrating the year's final deliveries. One of the gals is making the victory sign. It'd be rather ludicrous to take such an upbeat photo for a miss. Then, there's the InsideEV report for December that suggests Tesla would have delivered over 60K Model 3s in Q4. Troy is pretty much by himself on the low end of the production and delivery estimates now, and most everyone else is suggesting 60K or more for Q4. We'll know soon enough! As I have speculated, now that we have a rough idea of gross margins for Model 3, once the P&D numbers are known, analysts will have a pretty good idea of likely positive cashflow and profits for Tesla this time around, and so there's the potential for the P&D report to move the stock price more than usual this quarter. We also have the matter of the $360 value to TSLA in February which will affect how many bondholders choose to redeem for a 50/50 mix of cash and stock in March, rather than taking all cash. Once TSLA starts running uphill and looks like it is going to be trading above 360, there's reason to believe that move will become fuel for an additional move upwards as the cash situation at TSLA looks that much rosier.
Looking at the tech chart, notice that the blue 50 day moving average has provided some resistance to climbing the past few days. The upper bollinger band is still above 387, which sets TSLA up nicely for a big run upwards if P&D report is good enough to launch a rally. I wouldn't want to be a short or a long on the sideline right now because things are lining up for a nice move if the P&D numbers are good. Judging from sentiment on the TMC forums, some upward movement is quite possible on Wednesday as longs become more confident with the likely outcome of Q4 production and deliveries.
Conditions:
* Dow up 265 (1.15%)
* NASDAQ up 51 (0.77%)
* TSLA 332.80, down 1.07 (0.32%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 45.74, down 0.06 (0.13%)
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 66%
Would all of you please do me a quick favor? Raise your hand if you have had a chance this quarter to review the FactSet list of analysts forecasts for TSLA's Q4 production and delivery numbers. Yeah, I thought so. Tesla put forward some seriously good numbers today and the mainstream media was set to pounce on them with these FactSet numbers while shorts went to work selling like crazy to convince gullible investors that Tesla just had a bad quarter. Sigh. I've heard (but not confirmed) that BofA's analyst set a 71K number for Q4 M3 production (but not a price target compatible with that projection). Likewise I have heard that Goldman was showing something like 63K or 64K production of M3. No wonder Tesla underperformed the FactSet numbers. If you haven't yet seen @Fact Checking 's post on the subject, I suggest doing so. At least I had no short-term bets active, which is a lesson to all of us.The manipulations are numerous in this crooked casino overseen (in principle) by the SEC. Nonetheless, TSLA bounces off its near-ATH a few times every year, so with some patience this madness will become just a bad memory growing smaller in the rearview mirror. This dip was necessary to:
* give the short-seller friends of the media a convenient exit point before the crush of Q4 ER numbers and
* give the big dog long players a nice buy-in price to take advantage of the coming Q4 ER
Compounding the "disappointing" Q4 production and delivery report was word from Tesla that it is lowering the price on U.S. medium and long-range Model 3s as well as Models S and X by $2000 in order to take away some of the sting of a tax credit reduction. Although if demand was unlimited such a reduction in price would not be necessary, the reduction does not mean a lack of demand either, though. Fully three quarters of Q4's M3 orders were new (not from the reservation list), which suggests strong ongoing demand for these cars. Additionally, a $2000 cut in price suggests improvements in efficiency of manufacturing that makes possible such cuts and still allows a decent margin.
Relax, though, because we're going to see some decent profit and cash-flow numbers in the 4th quarter's Earnings Report. Here's the full production and delivery report from Tesla, that shows in Q4:
* Model 3: 61,394 produced, 63,150 delivered
* Models S&X: 25,161 produced, 13,500 Model S and 14,050 Model X delivered
* Total deliveries were 90,700
Further, InsideEV says in this article that Tesla delivered 25,250 Model 3s in December, breaking all records for maximum number of EVs delivered in any quarter. Further, InsideEV estimates that Tesla accounted for about two-thirds or all EV revenue in 2018. That's what I call a commanding marketplace position.
I'm pleased that my friends did an excellent job of guessing greater than 60K M3 production and deliveries and we were able to see that Troy's and Bloomberg's methodologies just weren't working this quarter. Fact Checking's estimates were nearly right on using his rather simple method. We've done a really good job at TMC in Q3 and Q4 anticipating what will happen with the numbers, but it's nearly impossible to keep from being blindsided by the short/media connection from time to time. As always, keep your options expiring well in the distance to avoid these surprises. There will be more, we can count on it.
The NASDAQ began the day in the cellar but climbed into the green by closing and closed up nearly 0.5%
The day began with TSLA and the broader markets down, but when the media started calling Q4 a miss for Tesla and shorts began to sell, it triggered the algos and a massive selling spree began. TSLA was nearly down to its daily low by the time the market opened. A total of 265K shares traded hands in the first minute, giving shorts a chance to close positions with no significant effect upon the stock price. At 9:40am, just 10 minutes into market trading, TSLA triggered the Short Sale Circuit Breaker, also known as the alternate uptick rule, which prevents short-sellers from putting in a short sale bid that is below the trading price. We've seen how this rule does a good job of stopping the downward icicles that indicate short-seller manipulations to Teslaholics such as myself, but this rule is not so efficient in keeping the shorts from reducing the stock's climb. With 64% of the selling attributed to shorts, however, you better believe they were working to minimize TSLA's recovery that would normally happen as the NASDAQ rose.
TSLA shorts worked hard today to keep TSLA from running higher with the NASDAQ's recovery with 64% of TSLA selling attributed to them
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the lower bollinger band worked as support today during the max craziness.
The alternate uptick rule will be in force tomorrow too, so TSLA should see some relief from the otherwise brutal short-seller efforts to suggest that this Q4 production and delivery report was a stinker. Working against the NASDAQ tomorrow will be a hangover from today's AAPL report that iphone sales are lagging. You could see the dip in TSLA and other tech stocks prior to 5pm in after-hours trading when the AAPL report came out.
Let's hope that Tesla's 4Q ER beats the 3Q ER in terms of profits and cash flow. This dip is a nonsense dip, for the most part, and recovery could be fairly quick if analysts start figuring out 4Q profit and cash flow numbers and then upgrading price targets.
Conditions:
* Dow up 19 (0.008%)
* NASDAQ up 31 (0.46%)
* TSLA 310.12, down 22.68 (6.81%)
* TSLA volume 11.7M shares
* Oil 45.83, down 0.71 (1.53%)
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 64%
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So no expected new TSLA news now until ER? It is going to be a long month especially with the market on the brink everyday now.
Consider today's trading elements:
* AAPL's bad forecast yesterday and 10% after-hours dip set the broader markets up for a bad day
* The NASDAQ lost 3.04% today and was a downward trajectory all afternoon
* The FUD was running rampant
* Shorts were tagged with 61% of TSLA selling even though the alternate uptick rule was in place today
Nonetheless, TSLA closed down only slightly more than the NASDAQ, 3.15%. Further, volume was relatively light at just 7 million shares on such a volatile day. Bottom line: shorts are losing their edge in the battle to stir up worry in TSLA longs.
Here's a recap of the FUD:
* J.P. Morgan's Ryan Brinkman suggested that TSLA could lose another 27% on top of early January losses because Tesla's reduction in prices may mean soft demand. This particular report uses Mark Spiegel for video commentary, which gives you an idea of the overall quality of analysis.
* Several news outlets kept harping on TSLA's recent stock price fall due to missing analyst delivery expectations.
* Reuters suggests that TSLA is in trouble when Uber and Lyft IPOs come about because then there will be three future automotive stocks for investors to choose from (I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried).
Ironically, the most accurate version of Tesla's 4th quarter P&D report I've seen so far appeared on oilprice.com today. Go figure.
The NASDAQ fell 3% today, largely in reaction to Apple's 10% dip
Folks, we're no longer in the regionals for FUD and Short-seller misbehavior, nor are we in the quarter-finals either. We're now in the FUD and Shorting Olympics and you can expect max effort to keep the SP descending as far as possible before its inevitable springback. Shorts need to cover and preferred clients of the investment houses need to get in before TSLA starts heading to the moon when 4Q ER numbers and 2019 projections are released. In a reasonably policed market, the kind of blatant price manipulations we see with TSLA would not occur, but the SEC has not gone after a single manipulator in the most highly-shorted stock in America and thus there's no reason for the manipulators to show one iota of concern for being called to the carpet.
Unfortunately for the shorts, Friday could be a big up day for the broader markets if remarks by Jerome Powell signal a softening of his position. Don't be surprised to see shorts pushing for a dip now that the alternate uptick rule is over, but if that dip fails and TSLA starts running uphill along with the broader markets, then any dry powder you still possess might have to be deployed quickly because we know how quickly TSLA can turn around.
Shorts were tagged with 61% of TSLA selling today. Can you imagine how things would have looked if that same shorting took place without the alternate uptick rule in place?
Looking at the tech chart, you can see the lower bb at 291 and upper at 388, a huge gap. Shorts would love to push us down to the lower bb, the TSLA equivalent of getting your boxing opponent against the ropes. You can see just looking back a few weeks how TSLA tends to run from one bollinger band to another in quick succession. There are many investors waiting for TSLA to bottom out before jumping back in, and if that day is tomorrow, you can see lots of room to run uphill. Elon surprised everyone with a little-notice Q3 ER, and he could do it again this quarter, perhaps even earlier in January. Such unpredictable behavior will make the buyers just that much more trigger-happy once the bottom of the macro dip is reached because the bottom of the TSLA dip would likely coincide with it. Fingers crossed.
Conditions:
* Dow down 660 (2.83%)
* NASDAQ down 202 (3.04%)
* TSLA 300.36, down 9.76 (3.15%)
* TSLA volume 7.0M shares
* Oil 47.26, up 0.17 (0.36%)
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 61%
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For reference, Nick Cunningham and Irina Slav at oilprice.com are always worth reading.
Seems like short % is down through to just over 20.66% per Ihor which may indicate shorts exiting before the catalysts Papa mentioned above. I’m kicking myself for not selling at $377 and re-entering at a lower price point, but I was really optimistic of a TSLA breakout as we were pushing the upper BB
$TSLA short interest is $7.98 billion, 26.56 million shares short, 20.66% of float, G.C. borrow cost. Shares shorted down 516k over the last week, down 107k in January. Shorts down $199 mm in MTM losses today, up $660 mm YTD, after being down $1.41 bn in 2018.
$TSLA short interest is $7.98 billion, 26.56 million shares short, 20.66% of float, G.C. borrow cost. Shares shorted down 516k over the last week, down 107k in January. Shorts down $199 mm in MTM losses today, up $660 mm YTD, after being down $1.41 bn in 2018.
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