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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.

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  1. Cherry Wine

    Cherry Wine Member

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    I think he’s referring to the wash sale rule (30 days) and selling in conjunction with the Q1 CC.
     
  2. Stormy

    Stormy Member

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    I dislike listening to Cramer even when he's being reasonable because most of the time he's unreasonable and sometimes it can be hard to tell. As Papafox has said before: wolf in sheeps clothing. (I'm beginning to think the same of Dan Ives.)

    Anyway, allow me to share with you a quote on this topic from Cathie Wood of ARK Invest. It absolutely made my day. (Credit to Teslarati for bringing it to my attention in this article.) She calls out Jonas by simply following the mathematical logic of his numbers... And concludes that if his analysis is in good faith, it's actually a positve for Tesla. And she does all that in a single tweet! Enjoy...

    Screenshot_20190522-033837.png
    Screenshot_20190522-033837.png


    In case that can't be read easily I'll repeat the argument (somewhat less eloquently): Basically, an analyst's price target should be a weighted average of all the various cases considered, weighted by the probability of each case occurring. So for this ultra-bear case scenario to not affect Jonas' $230 price target, it must have a 0% chance of occurring in Jonas' own calculations. Either that, or his probability of the bull case occurring has gone up.
     
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  3. Pras

    Pras Member

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    I am stating what Ross Gerber tweeted the day after earning that he will harvest the losses from triggered stop losses, mostly for tax purposes before reinvesting them back. I am assuming other funds have similar strategy and now that the stock is much lower, it may be time to get back. Andrew left also said that there will be a better time to buy back and given the hint of reversal in the last few days, we may see a renewed buying.
     
  4. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Supporting Member

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    oh you meant they’re playing wash sale around quarter end?
    dunno
     
  5. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #2505 Papafox, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
    may22chart3.JPG
    Yesterday, with positive macros, efforts to push TSLA below 200 for the close had failed for the 3rd day in a row. Daily declines had sunk to near zero. Nonetheless, we live in interesting times and such a flurry of FUD came forth today on a day with negative macros that TSLA sank below 200. With that support breached, it was an easy fall to the 192.xx closing price today. Here's how the day shaped up.

    Initially, the pre-market dip and a tiny MMD were erased very quickly with a nice rise that nearly reached 204 at 9:36am. Remember how deep the MMDs had been the previous two days? Traders were standing by to buy the MMD today and break the pattern, which they did. Unfortunately for them, an entirely bigger problem popped up, which was the combination of negative macros and a tidal wave of FUD.

    The FUD
    You may take the view that all of these stories appeared "coincidentally" today, and you have a right to your opinion, but personally, I think it's far more likely that these articles (or most of them, at least) were intentionally positioned in order to reinforce TSLA's fall. Here they are:

    * Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley held a private discussion with investors today (and then allowed the contents of the discussion to be disseminated widely). He couldn't have been more negative: “Today, supply exceeds demand, they are burning cash, nobody cares about the Model Y, they raise capital and there’s no strategic buy-in. Today, Tesla is not really seen as a growth story. It’s seen more as a distressed credit and restructuring story.” Nobody cares about Model Y? Burning cash? What fortune teller is Mr. Jonas visiting to come up with these answers? Here's a Bloomberg account by Dana Hull of the session. This truly looks to my eye like an unhappy Adam Jonas who was upstaged by recent Cathie Wood comments and he's extracting his vengeance this week while trying to reestablish himself as the premier expert on Tesla and autonomy. His comments are clearly over the top, however.

    * An analyst with Citi Research downgraded TSLA today and said there's increased risk that the stock could drop as low as $36 a share.

    * Consumer Reports jumped into the fray with a report that lane changes in Navigate on Autopilot were dangerous. I am not aware of any accidents caused by lane changes in NOA, but the writer focused on changes in which there is a vehicle rapidly approaching in the lane which will be used for passing. I have been allowing NOA to make automatic lane changes that I approve of in my Model 3, but the article leaves out important details such as some torquing on the steering wheel by the driver's hands is needed to signal to the autopilot that it has approval for the lane change. I simply don't give the approval if I feel uncomfortable about the situation, but that important piece of the puzzle was not included in the article. The article also neglected to mention that in vehicles with autopilot engaged, Tesla has seen a doubling of safety in the driving. What's at work is a system that is learning from real-world experiences but that is safe as long as the driver continues to monitor the situation and confirm that it is safe to proceed.

    may22nas.jpg
    The broader markets were down today with NASDAQ losing 0.45% at day's end. You can see NASDAQ dips at 11:15am, 1:20pm, and in the final minutes heading into market close.

    At end of day, a more-balanced article came out from Gene Munster's group. Munster is concerned about the tariff war with China and has lowered his expectations of Tesla deliveries in 2019 to 310,000 vehicles (Tesla has guided for between 360K and 400K). Munster suggests as long as Tesla delivers at least 300K vehicles a year in 2019 and 2020, the present cash situation will last for 2 years. If you compare his somewhat conservative position to that of Adam Jonas, you would wonder if the two are talking about the same company.

    Here's a bullish analyst, Joseph Osha from J.P. Morgan, explaining on CNBC today why he is keeping his high price target and buy rating intact.

    Finally, someone in the financial community spoke up and said that this recent drop of Tesla's stock was primarily the work of TSLA short sellers, who have increased their short interest to over 31% of the float. The unlikely source of this story is Bank of America. Go figure.

    Note regarding percentage of selling by shorts: the posted percentage of FINRA selling by shorts today was about 40.25%, but the daily charts suggests significantly high levels of short-seller manipulations today. For example, the 12:30pm dip showed nearly 80K shares traded in a 2 minute time span, while the 3:10pm dip shows about 200K shares sold in a 7 minute timespan. Mercy! This is not how institutional holders unload. They do it slowly so as to have the least negative effect on the stock price. Shorts, on the other hand ...

    may22tech.JPG
    The tech chart shows the very significant dip of TSLA once 200 fell. The lower bb is just playing catch-up to the stock price and has not offered any real support for some time now.

    Where does TSLA go from here? We've heard that 180 would be a strong support for the stock, and it's entirely possible that the stock could make its way down to this number. At some point, whether at 180 or some time before, the market will realize that TSLA has been oversold and TSLA could enjoy a nice bounce, as the Bank of America story suggests. So many of the FUD stories of the past week, the $10 bottom of Morgan Stanley's worst case scenario and the $36 bottom of the Citi article, are designed to scare investors and distract them from the 180 support level. What we have right now is a case where investors are wary about catching falling knives and then a possible support level is breached and the SP falls further. If you have dry powder, I would suggest hanging loose, too, until a more solid turnaround is confirmed. Since many investors are using this approach, a further descent to 180 becomes all the more likely. We are in the midst of a FUD, short-selling, and media "sugar"storm that has been unprecedented with Tesla so far.

    In the meantime, keep an eye on Tesla's execution. From deliveries in North America and the number of ships heading to China and Europe, Q2 looks fairly reasonable so far. Although the number of Model S and X buyers who have received their Raven-enhanced refreshed versions of these vehicles had been fairly low in the past, I've seen a significant upturn during the past couple days in buyers reporting that Tesla is ready for delivery. At long last that logjam appears to be clearing. Check out the threads for yourself at:
    * Model S delivery thread
    * Model X delivery thread

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 101 (0.39%)
    * NASDAQ down 35 (0.45%)
    * TSLA 192.73, down 12.35 (6.02%)
    * TSLA volume 18.3M shares
    * Oil 61.31
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 40.5%
     
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  6. Pras

    Pras Member

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    From Loup’s comment the 40k China number looks way conservative. Already this quarter 4 ships are going to China and likely more. Even if they have 5k each, just this quarter will be 20k. Adding 10k from Q1 means Loup is only counting 10k for the two remaining quarters? Let alone if Shanghai GF3 starts to produce sooner.
     
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  7. PeterJA

    PeterJA Member

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    #2507 PeterJA, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
    Adam Jonas got a reputation as a TSLA uber-bull because he was the first to include robotaxis in his price target years ago ($700 something, as I recall). But he is really a TSLA manic-depressive. HIs comments today are clearly full of merde, but his $700 target years ago was also full of merde, if we believe ARK Invest's analysis of robotaxi potential ($4000 TSLA).

    Kick Tesla when they're down, boost them when they're up -- I smell a volatility milker or a man with no courage of his convictions.
     
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  8. Mars ☰mperor

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    How this is legal really blows my mind.
    No one cares about Model Y? Just talking *sugar* without evidence.
    Then again, these wall street scumbags have been doing this for decades.
     
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  9. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Looks like the leaked Elon email is suggesting Tesla has a chance of making guidance in Q2. If it even comes close, there will be quite a rally. We were on track last night to reach 180 quickly, but even with lousy macros, TSLA is up this morning. A smart short would be nuts to not get out now.
     
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  10. Pras

    Pras Member

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    Up on a very heavy volume but we aren’t seeing any panic or squeeze yet. I give it as early as this afternoon to as much as next week to have any squeeze. But there has to be a spring back. Right?
     
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  11. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    Let's keep the discussion in this thread focussed on Papafox's daily charts and not turn it into a general investor discussion thread. We already have one of those.

    Mod
     
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  12. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #2512 Papafox, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
    may23chart.JPG
    The leak of an Elon Musk email sent to employees last night caused TSLA to turn green on a day when the macros were seriously in the red. A copy of the email appears here, in a Teslarati article. Although a close 2.76 above the previous close doesn't sound like much, if you measure the rise from the pre-market low of 182.10, the rise is more than 13. Likewise, if you compare TSLA's performance to the NASDAQ, TSLA outperformed by more than 3%.

    The importance of information contained in the email cannot be overstated. Not only do we learn that Tesla may possibly reach its guidance delivery range of 90K to 100K vehicles in Q2, we learned that so far in the 7 weeks of Q2 Tesla has received over 50K new orders. This is an order rate of over 7K/wk and bodes well for organic demand if it continues. An aspirational production rate of 1K/day for Model 3 suggests the factory is running well and sufficient cells exist for reaching the quarter's goal. It looks like the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker has been pretty close this time to guessing production numbers. Keep in mind that the whole reason for this plunge has been stories by the naysayers that Tesla lacks the demand to be profitable, and yet demand looks pretty good in Q2. The very best way to turn this stock around is to refute the reason for the plunge, which is what Elon did last night. Now we get to see how well the market believes that Musk's numbers are indeed going to materialize. Basically, Elon is saying @neroden is right and Adam Jonas is wrong.

    TSLA has been in a brutal 6-days-in-a-row plunge with the usual suspects flinging FUD with great enthusiasm as TSLA marched quickly toward known support level at 180. Actually, Option Sniper and other technical traders identified the support closer to 177.50 or 178, and we could have reached that level today. Would TSLA have bounced or would the shorts double-down and power through the support level with the help of negative macros? Hopefully, we never have to find out. Some longs were being forced out of their TSLA positions, due to margin calls. It was getting ugly. For now, the game is to close above 200 by tomorrow, which was a previous support level and a psychological support level as well. One technical trader I conversed with suggests that closing above 208 by end of week would mark a reversal. Of course the shorts know these numbers too and will try to keep that from happening. If we close at 199.99, you'll know why.

    may23nas.jpg
    The NASDAQ closed down 1.58%, even with the nice run uphill in the final hour of trading

    Instead, the biggest threat to our recovery from this plunge will be macros and politics in the U.S. vs. China trade war. Hoping for green in macros tomorrow so that we can see what TSLA can do without the headwinds.

    Consider with volume exceeding 26 million shares, there were over 26 million shares sold. Who would be willing to sell shares at this price when there's an apparent bottom to the dip and a potential reversal in store? I think if Tesla can develop some upward momentum more longs will start jumping in and shorts jumping out and the rise can accelerate very quickly. The trick will be to get that momentum moving upwards so that longs are no longer trading from a position of dread.

    may23short.jpg
    Shorts were tagged with only 40% of TSLA selling today, but again I think this number is misleading when you can see the very significant efforts being put forth. For example, look at the mandatory morning dip, even on a day with such positive news. I continue to believe shorts are finding shares to day-trade with in non-FINRA locations and the chart above is misleading.

    may23ihor.JPG
    Ihor Dusaniwsky shows TSLA's number of shares shorted as being still below but not far from the all time high levels in 2018. Apparently we saw little covering today. If the stock price starts rising rapidly, all of that will change because if the departure rate of the shorts is too quick, the price climb will accelerate quickly and the process becomes a dynamo.

    may23tech2.JPG
    Looking at the tech chart, you can see the wide price range of trading today but the very narrow gains from previous close to today's close. Notice the very significant volume and TSLA finally closing above the lower bollinger band today.

    may23tech3.JPG
    Now take a look at October 22, 2018, and you can see a similar trading day with minimum climb just before the big breakout upwards. Volume was lighter on the 22nd, but it increased substantially thereafter. Macros permitting, we could have a good setup for tomorrow. Headwinds could be macros and the incredible FUD and trading horsepower the opponents of TSLA have been willing to throw at it lately.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 286 (1.11%)
    * NASDAQ down 123 (1.58%)
    * TSLA 195.49, up 2.76 (1.43%)
    * TSLA volume 26.3M shares
    * Oil 58.22
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 40%
     
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  13. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    may24chart2.JPG
    There certainly was a big difference towards TSLA in the views of small investors vs. big on Friday. TSLA traded between 202 and 200 in pre-market trading, but once the market opened the big dogs drove TSLA down and kept it down for the remainder of the day. There was enough interest in TSLA to defeat the first small MMD, but when the trading increased, the big dogs pushed her down about the time the NASDAQ took a dip (10:20ish). The NASDAQ recovered some lost ground after 11am, but TSLA did not. TSLA's inability to climb on a green macro day suggests the stock may dip lower before finally rebounding.

    may24nas.jpg
    The NASDAQ opened very green but closed up only 0.11%

    Several forces were in effect on Friday
    * The momentum was upward from Thursday's trading, thus the pre-market strength
    * The Friday before a three-day weekend is often a time for the big investors who typically back TSLA to leave for their weekends early, thus giving the bears lower volume and a better environment for manipulating the stock
    * If you look at the Open Interest chart below, you'll see that market makers would want to prevent TSLA from running above 200 or below 190 at close, simply to maximize their profits. I suspect they influenced the stock price, at least in the final hour. Interestingly, that would be to keep TSLA above 190 through close, which happened, and then the stock dipped lower in after-market trading
    * TSLA battled an unusually high quantity and quality of FUD this week, which unnerved many investors even though the leaked Musk email clearly showed the FUD was inaccurate. More on this topic below...

    may24opricot.JPG
    Friday's Open interest chart showed that market makers had a strong incentive to see TSLA close below 200 and a fairly strong incentive to see it close above 190.

    Regarding this week's FUD, the most damaging came from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas. On April 8, he dropped his TSLA price target from $260 to $240. Such a small move makes you wonder if he just wanted to put out some bad news about Tesla. Then on April 30, he dropped the price target again, this time from $240 to $230. On May 19, TMC's @Navin speculated that with the FUD flying this heavily it was now time for either Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley to announce a downgrade. Sure enough, two days later on May 21, Jonas kept his price target intact but dropped his worst case scenario price to $10. This latest move caused even Tesla foe Cramer to call the price ridiculous. ARKInvest's Cathie Wood tweeted first that Jonas needs to compare notes with her because it is ICE vehicles, not EVs that are losing sales right now. Wood then teased that if Jonas kept his price target intact but dropped his worst case price, that must mean that either the probability of the best case scenario has increased or the worst case scenario decreased.

    Jonas was apparently not amused and the following day put together a private call to advise investors of Tesla's critical situation. A copy of the PDF transcript can be found here. The event itself came across as weak as only two non-Morgan Stanley questions came in and Jonas's logic was sketchy at best. For example, he cited no vehicles on the Tesla horizon that could turn Tesla around with its lagging Model 3 sales and claimed there was very little interest in Model Y. (What about the Semi, too?) He painted a bleak picture of growth going away and Tesla losing money. If you read the transcript you will likely agree this was a hit job and not a work of careful analysis.

    The damage that Jonas did, however, was to throw that $10 number out there, and every click reporter in the country jumped on the story as a juicy new proof that the mighty Tesla had fallen. These stories did indeed induce some selling from within the community of longs. Then Citi Research, seeing how successful Jonas's ploy was, produced its own $36 worst case scenario number and the click reporters jumped on this story as well. What transpired was a potent new form of FUD that could be delivered by a willing analyst and I think this type of FUD greatly hurt TSLA last week.

    The following day, Thursday, an email leak of Elon Musk's to employees showed what was actually going on at Tesla, which was heavy production and heavy deliveries (possibly surpassing Q4's delivery numbers). On a down day for the macros, Tesla gained a few dollars.

    Which brings us to Friday. Now that the real story of Tesla's solid second quarter performance so far has been revealed, many of the click reporters dismissed the Musk email because it wasn't as newsworthy as Jonas's steaming pile of horsesugar, and went with the negative story. For example, in this AP release, the story closes with a quote from Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds saying, "There doesn't appear to be anything in the (product) pipeline that is going to save them," she said. "Now Tesla seems to be losing the confidence of its biggest cheerleader, Wall Street."

    And we wondered why Tesla was having such a bad week. Look no further than journalists who receive the real story direct from the CEO's email and printed the horsesugar instead.

    may24tech.JPG
    The lower bollinger band is still heavily slanted downhill, so it is of no help in supporting the stock price. What Tesla needs right now is a major buyer who understands that the Tesla story is still very much intact and chooses to start picking up shares at these bargain prices. If not, we get to test the various expressions of support at 181, 180, or 177.50.

    For the week, TSLA closed at 190.63, down 20.40 from last Friday's 211.03. Hopefully, this stock will rebound well before Tesla's Annual meeting on June 11. If not, enough can be said about the present state of Tesla in the meeting to effect the turnaround, provided Tesla is still on track to meet Q2 guidance. In the meantime, get outside and shake off the stress of this irrational market behavior. This too will come to an end. Have a good weekend.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 95 (0.37%)
    * NASDAQ up 9 (0.11%)
    * TSLA 190.63, down 4.86 (2.49%)
    * TSLA volume 14.1M shares
    * Oil 58.63
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts:41.5%
     
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  14. PeterJA

    PeterJA Member

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    Or maybe lots of small buyers.

    One advantage for the stock is Tesla product owners know how great the products are, and many of them buy stock. The more cars and energy systems Tesla sells, the more TSLA buyers there will be -- a virtuous cycle that is just getting started. I suspect many buyers are now waiting for the bottom of this dip before jumping in hard. I know I am.

    Cathie Wood said the longer a growth stock remains in a trading range (five years in TSLA's case), the more dramatic will be the breakout up or down. I see this stock as a spring coiled so tightly now that when unleashed it will blast off like a Falcon 9.
     
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  15. Earthpower

    Earthpower Member

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    Thanks Papafox!
     
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  16. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #2516 Papafox, May 28, 2019
    Last edited: May 28, 2019
    may28chart3.jpg
    Today was the day following a three-day weekend and right after market open it's common to see a spurt of buying or selling, depending upon the the mood of the small investors who had been considering TSLA investments over the long weekend. In this case, we saw a buying spurt that erupted shortly after one of the smallest MMDs you can imagine. The buying spurt was predictably followed by a short-seller induced mandatory morning dip to remove the threat of a rally and to probe the level of dread in TSLA shareholders. The results were that longs started buying the 1st MMD, the 2nd, MMD, and each following dip. Thus a series of icicles emerged indicating the market's unwillingness to accept the short-seller pushdowns.

    Look at the first transparent grey horizontal line I drew at the red/green line. It stretches almost all the way from 11am until 3pm and shows the "whack a mole" area where shorts sold as needed any time TSLA dared to stick its cute little head out of the hole and into the green.

    Alas, after 1pm the broader markets began a noticeable descent. TSLA traders ignored the macros until about 3pm when the trend was too obvious and a push down by shorts brought TSLA just a bit above 188. Here I suspect TSLA tried to recover but we saw a second round of capping (second grey horizontal line) that stretched until 3:50pm.

    Also, notice the big upturn in TSLA during the final minutes of after-hours trading. The after-hours trading has been a more reliable barometer of sentiment going into the next day's market trading than pre-market trading, I've often found.

    may28nas.jpg
    Both the Dow and NASDAQ opened well in the green but both descended to close in the red today, with NASDAQ down 0.39%

    may28tech.JPG
    Looking at the tech chart, I've heard some traders say that you need 5 days of consolidation to define a bottom. Looking at the late march trading, that rule seemed to hold. The early May consolidation lasted less than 5 days but led to a bit of a climb. The May 13 consolidation lasted only 4 days and then didn't hold, and so I'm not much of a believer in the 5 day rule but will keep an eye on it all the same.

    Some positive developments with Tesla:
    Tesla will provide answer in China Model 3 SR price guessing game on May 31. If Tesla is encouraging guesses as to the price of Model 3 SR in China, do you really expect them to surprise to the high end? Nope, they're getting excitement going and will announce something lower than originally anticipated, which will lead to a great number of reservations, which will drive a stake into the heart of the Adam Jonas "China is a problem" theory. Naturally the bear analysts will cry "low margins" but Tesla will be able at some point to give the 25% anticipated margins talk. Can't wait, it's going to be fun.

    Autopilot is already showing it's going to save a sugarload of Teslas from accidents. This dashcam footage provided by Electrek.co shows a Tesla on autopilot swerving into the adjacent lane in order to avoid a collision from a vehicle that was about to run into the Tesla. What's important is that this is the third or fourth video I have seen of this type of reaction by the Tesla under autopilot. Autopilot is apparently now watching adjacent lanes to see if they are available for emergency egress. Totally impressive! Whoever insures Teslas with this new technology is going to write a whole lot fewer checks to pay for collision damage, and I suspect Tesla wants to be that insurance company. Why give all the profits to Warren Buffet as it takes a small eternity for for insurance companies to lower their premiums on autopilot equipped and often-used Teslas? Also, remember those accidents when a Tesla hit a fire truck or other vehicle that extended partially into the lane? As long as the adjacent line is safe for egress, those accidents should now disappear as the Tesla is finally allowed to depart the lane in an emergency situation.

    Finally, I've been in communications with a scientist who has been taking a close look at the Maxwell Technologies breakthroughs, and his view is that they are indeed real and will produce 20% battery cell cost savings. He's also quite impressed with the likely immediate increase in energy density to 300w/kg and a path to go higher with the cells. He offered a PDF from Maxwell that describes the technology well, and a copy can be downloaded here.
    This InsideEV article echos his enthusiasm regarding Maxwell
    and this video from 13:00 on does an excellent job of describing Maxwell's technology by a chemical engineer

    So all in all, Tesla is poised to really make great leaps in the future with it's AI and its battery technology and they continue to pull away from the competition. From today's trading, we saw several examples of how trading didn't go the way the shorts intended. They still can depress the SP by a couple of dollars, but they seem to be losing their mojo on days that don't have a big macro dip. In the short term, the boogy man will be the market's reactions to the China trade issues and whether fears of an economic downturn pop up before TSLA bounces significantly. Never a dull moment.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 238 (0.93%)
    * NASDAQ down 30 (0.39%)
    * TSLA 188.70, down 1.93 (1.01%)
    * TSLA volume 10.1M shares
    * Oil 58.89
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 40%
     
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  17. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #2517 Papafox, May 29, 2019
    Last edited: May 29, 2019
    may29chart2.JPG
    Today was a battleground between shorts and longs, just as with yesterday, but even with noticeably worse macros today TSLA managed to close in the green, giving longs one more victory in the effort to end the downtrend and set up for a bounce. The day began with macro futures looking bad and thus we saw pre-market trading in the red. Prices rose as market trading approached however. Then at 9:34am the shorts dumped 90K shares in one minute, spiking the SP downward but only for a moment, and when this brief MMD was defeated TSLA quickly rose into the green.

    If you compare the TSLA chart with the NASDAQ chart, you'll see there was quite a bit of correlation between the rising and falling of each today. My guess: shorty using the NASDAQ dips as an excuse to push harder downward and then working to cap the peaks so that they didn't exceed 190 for too long. It was all about 190 today and I have put a transparent grey line at that level so that the gameplay is all the clearer.

    A little before 11am as the NASDAQ declined further, shorty managed to push TSLA down to below 190 and we see horizontal trading there until TSLA broke lower as the NASDAQ continued to drop. The 1:30pm rise dissipated below 190, a brief run upwards above 190 was neutralized, and then then final climb of the day was capped just below 190 for 11 minutes before it climbed higher and then was led down for a close slightly below 190.

    Folks, it's psychological gamesmanship. Nonetheless, shorty expected to see red when everything else was trading negatively today and when it became apparent that TSLA would close in the green, shorty expended the resources necessary to get TSLA to close just 0.14 below 190.

    The final minute of market trading saw a robust 188K shares trade hands, suggesting lots of opportunity for shorts who manipulated today to cover at close.

    The good news is that after-hours trading was on a positive trend, which will hopefully be reflected in tomorrow's trading.

    may29nas.jpg
    The NASDAQ opened low (as did the DOW) and closed down 0.79%

    Overall, TSLA did well today, closing 1.4% higher than the Nasdaq.

    News that helped TSLA today was another leaked Email from Elon to the employees. Here's a CNBC version. Musk emphasized continued demand and the need for getting lots of vehicles delivered efficiently before quarter's end. He still see's exceeding 90,700 deliveries in Q2 as a possibility.

    Another important news story was that Fremont will be the location for the manufacture of Model Y and that Model S will see a refresh in September. Here's an electrek version of the story. The idea is to move the Model S body in white to share the existing and more robot-intensive Model X body in white line in order to make room for Model Y. Both S and X already share a final production line.

    Meanwhile, CleanTechnica has this excellent story of how Q1 was just a dip in demand and how demand is noticeably stronger in Q2 again.

    So, who's going to win the battle to reverse TSLA's trend here, shorts or longs? The trophy is very much up for grabs as Tesla continues to show strength as investors question the over-the-top negativity of last week and leaked Elon emails suggest that Tesla is actually doing pretty well in Q2. Working in favor of the shorts would be macro disruptions (that seem all too common lately) and whether the bears can generate any new FUD that was as successful as the Morgan Stanley and Citi excruciatingly low price targets of last week.


    may29tech.JPG
    Looking at the tech chart, you can see that today's green day won't exactly sweep a chartist off his or her feet, but it's an important start to ending this price erosion because it shows a change in momentum.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 221 (0.87%)
    * NASDAQ down 60 (0.79%)
    * TSLA 189.86, up 1.16 (0.61%)
    * TSLA volume 12.0M shares
    * Oil 59.13
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts:41%
     
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  18. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,053
    • Like x 10
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  19. mikevbf

    mikevbf Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2012
    Messages:
    1,417
    Location:
    vermont
    You're not concerned that the electrek article traces back to Lara at CNBC and that the S refresh in September part might be an attempt to depress S and possibly X demand in Q3 instead of real journalism?
     
    • Informative x 1
  20. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,053
    may30chart.JPG
    Despite the very low percent of selling by shorts number recently, I continue to believe we're seeing a fairly high level of manipulations in TSLA trading. Once again today we saw buying on open of market trading, but then saw a fade into the red even with positive macros. Part of the pressure on TSLA today was because of the Brian Johnson Barclays downgrade from $192 to $150. Johnson is a Tesla perma-bear who is taking his turn in the one-a-day stock downgrade routine that the analysts have been pulling off for several days now.

    Nonetheless, TSLA tried to shake off the red by early afternoon but then the capping to prevent TSLA from climbing above $190 went into effect and TSLA sunk back down for the remainder of the day.

    Volume was on the light side of moderate today, suggesting that Tesla investors were in no hurry to either add or sell.

    The final minute of market trading yielded no less than 510,000 trades, suggesting that we're seeing a lot of wheeling and dealing with this stock.

    may30nas.jpg
    The NASDAQ gained 0.27% today, but Tesla's mandatory morning dip plus the Brian Johnson downgrade likely convinced traders that other stocks was where they'd make their money today, and not Tesla

    Consider this article at oilprice.com so that you can better understand the mindset of Tesla's foes. We're seeing an incredible drop in the cost of generating electricity with renewables, and oil producers can see that the future of electrical production will be moving quickly to wind and solar. Further, successful EV makers (and Tesla is the only standout beyond China at the moment) are going to enable drivers to tap into that cheap electricity as an alternative to gasoline. The obvious conclusion is to forestall the inevitable pressure on oil, bad things happening to Tesla would be one of the easiest ways to slow the pain of oil moving towards becoming a niche product, not the mainstay of energy any more.

    may30tech.JPG
    Taking a look at the tech chart, you can see that the slender $2 dips a day and not allowing two up days in a row presents a chart that does not project a stock about to turn around. This is the aim of the manipulators, I believe, as they hold off a rally in the hopes that some macro event will dip TSLA further and continue to prevent a bounce. Time will tell but the closer TSLA gets to 180, the more difficult it will be for the manipulators.

    In news late today, Tesla priced the standard range Model 3 in China at a price of 328,000 yuan ($47,529, says Reuters), coming in a bit less than a BMW 300 series sold in China. Although some Chinese buyers were hoping for a lower initial price, we may see some additional price cutting if China offers incentives for purchasing the vehicle. One advantage of getting the price out there is that buyers who were considering a U.S. built Model 3 and were sitting on the fence now can make an informed decision of wait 6-10 months or buy now. According to this TMC post by Mars Emperor, "Shipping date for imported SRP has just jumped to August, used to be end of June." Looks like clarification of pricing may help U.S. M3s sell better in China in the interim.

    Additional late news is that the POTUS will impose a 5% tariff on imports from Mexico and keep raising the tariff until Mexico acts to stop the border crossings. My guess is that the POTUS wants to demonstrate to China that he does indeed go ahead with promised tariffs, and if he can get cooperation from Mexico he will reward Mexico with a dropping of the tariff. I really think this move is part of the bigger picture. My guess is that Mexico will squawk and then put in the effort to improve border security to play its role in the drama because the cost of extra guards on the border is a whole lot less than the consequences of the tariffs. The problem for Tesla is that some parts come from Mexico and they will cost more. Also, the economy could take a hit. Expect the macros to be down tomorrow.

    @mikevbf , my guess is that if Model S is not going to receive another refresh in September, Tesla would clarify and remove the misinformation. If Tesla says nothing, the news is probably fairly accurate.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 43 (0.17%)
    * NASDAQ up 20 (0.27%)
    * TSLA 188.22, down 1.64 (0.86%)
    * TSLA volume 7.9M shares
    * Oil 56.04
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 38.5%
     
    • Informative x 10
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    • Like x 2
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