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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.

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  1. 1kEE

    1kEE Member

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    So far the macro bounce is Ok, index futures in the afterhours looks good... maybe we should take the minute-by-minute market speculation to the proper thread and not clutter PapaFox’s?
     
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  2. Wado

    Wado Member

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    No worries I meant no harm, big Tesla fan hoping and thinking they may knock it out of the park this quarter. Was talking more about the market in general.
     
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  3. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    jun6chartfull.png
    Today may not have been as big a rise as we've seen recently, but volume reached 20 million today, suggesting that the bounce is catching lots of attention. The main reason for the run higher today was a leaked story on Electrek.co about a sales call within Tesla that included some big numbers for sales so far. My commentary today is light on analysis because I spent most of the day traveling.

    jun6nas.png
    The NASDAQ gained 0.53% after spending most of the morning in the red.

    Comparing the two charts, you can see that TSLA's trajectory varied significantly from the NASDAQ's.

    jun6short.png
    Shorts were tagged with 43% of TSLA selling today

    jun6ihor.png
    Here's the biggest news of the day. Leading into today's trading, short-sellers have been a headwind for TSLA as they increased short interest by 1.2 million shares from last week. In other words, TSLA has enjoyed a nice bounce so far in spite of the increase in short interest. If the bounce continues to gain higher stock prices, the wind will shift to net short covering, and then the shorts will be helping the climb, rather than hindering it. What would be very good is to keep nearly 40 million shorts aboard as we climb toward next week's annual meeting, learn something very positive about TSLA, and watch the shorts trying to shed millions of shares quickly.


    jun6tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart, notice that the past two days saw closing prices very close to opening prices (even though significant gains took place both days). I see this as suggesting the shorts are still managing the stock price to some extent, not allowing big run ups to occur and panic the other shorts into covering. Also notice the increasing volume, which would likely be needed for any big breakout. Notice, too, that TSLA has reached the mid-bollinger band, which should now help all bollinger bands to start moving higher.

    I think the shorts are waiting for the inevitable down day for macros as some negative news about the trade wars comes out, but today's big TSLA volume and the stock's departure from following the NASDAQ gives us a bit of hope that TSLA may shrug off much of a macro dip and show strength. Fingers crossed.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 181 (0.71%)
    * NASDAQ up 40 (0.53%)
    * TSLA 205.95, up 9.35 (4.76%)
    * TSLA volume 20.2M shares
    * Oil: 53.17
    * Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 41%
     
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  4. rpicklum

    rpicklum Member

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    Wish I could grab a lot more shares before it goes up! Betting on a tough near-term yet, but as sales mount and synergies mature...

    Maybe a separate thread for fundamentals would be good. Useful subthreads: Are we beginning to see the end of the narrative whereby the auto majors effortlessly tool up and swat aside the newcomer? (seems like mostly they are drawing up merger plans to start talking about beginning...) Are we more than at the beginning of the demand boost whereby neighbors show each other what a modern car is?
     
  5. Boomer19

    Boomer19 Active Member

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    here you go Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
     
  6. docdeb27

    docdeb27 M3 LR AWD Pearl White Prem Int.

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    Me too!!
     
  7. Lews2049

    Lews2049 Member

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    This is awesome and do believe the stock is actively being kept down. Just waiting for the pressure to reach critical mass. I have been buying shares but i'm also cautious. I have never owned a stock before. :)
     
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  8. A.N. Gineer

    A.N. Gineer Member

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    While Tesla employees probably aren't too happy with their stock options being under water due to the dive in publicly traded equities, the company can fix that problem.

    If what you're saying is true, leaking material information (which sales numbers are) is considered to be insider trading from the training we received when our company went public.

    Don't be surprised to see the SEC investigate this and, in doing so, who knows what they'll discover when they crack open that can of worms. That was a really dumb move by the leaker as it is traceable, and a job loss is the least of their worries, as Martha Stewart can attest.

    You just know that prrson is likely to read this thread regularly. Dumb move, idiot. Really dumb move.
     
  9. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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  10. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Zach, the InsideEV numbers are indeed a best guess, but they've been some of the most reliable numbers put out there over the past year and so carry a fair level of credibility, and that is why I believe them significant.

    Everyone- Please respect the overall aim of this thread, which is primarily to be a quick way to find the daily trading chart posts. Sometimes there's a need for a post in this thread if you think I've made an error in my post or you have important information to add to the previous daily charts post, but for the most part it's better to express more general thoughts in the main investors' thread.
     
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  11. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #2551 Papafox, Jun 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2019
    jun7chart.png
    To some observers of TSLA, Friday's trading looked like a slight disappointment as TSLA hit resistance at 210 and then sank when the market realized it wasn't going higher. I'm going to offer you an alternative explanation for what transpired on Friday, and you're welcome to choose the explanation that seems the most reasonable.

    In pre-market trading, TSLA was trading near 208 in anticipation of another up day, but as we got closer to open, someone was pushing the SP down into the red so that TSLA approached 204 in the hour leading up to open. Why would someone do such a pushdown before market opened? It turns out that 311K shares traded hands during the opening minute (where, along with final minute of trading, big buys or sells have minimal effect upon the stock price). My theory is that someone with malice in mind for TSLA bought lots of shares during that opening minute, along with other traders who expected the SP to rise. Once TSLA reached 210, capping took place as those opening shares acquired around 206 were sold to keep TSLA from rising higher. At some point, shorts not involved in the morning buy joined in with short-selling, and a noticeable push downward toward the red/green line took place despite strong macros and no news of significance.

    Notice the various rallies of TSLA after the first touch of the red/green line, demonstrating longs ready to buy in and defend the SP. Several gyrations took place which brought about the icicles of short manipulations. Finally, as lower afternoon volumes appeared with big dog investors starting their weekends early, shorts pressed harder to get TSLA below the mid-bollinger band. At this point (and after the big pushdown from 210) some traders and weak longs became concerned and joined the selling. Fortunately, we saw some price recovery during the final hour of trading.

    jun7nas.png
    The NASDAQ opened in the green on Friday and was steady as a rock in holding a better than 1.5% gain from late morning until close

    The story the shorts are trying to sell right now is that TSLA just refused to stay above the mid-bollinger band for the third time in a row (see artful dodger's story below). To back up that story, CNBC brought chartist Carter Worth back into the studio to both congratulate him on his Tesla bounce story of a few days ago and then get a new reading. What the CNBC negative-Tesla commentators were trying to do once they got Carter back to the group setting was get him to admit that if TSLA descends back below 180 it'll go lower. Worth did indeed say this, but he also said that doesn't think TSLA will go that low (a point the talking heads tried to minimize).

    Important stories in Friday's TSLA trading:
    * This post by @Artful Dodger shows that TSLA's previous two rises to mid-bollinger band resulted in downward bounces
    * Later on Friday, Chartmaster Carter Worth appeared on CNBC
    * This article in Marketwatch says Piper Jaffray believes Model 3 demand concerns are overblown
    * Then Friday night the media announced that Trump and Mexico have signed agreement on border that will avoid tariffs
    * Over the weekend, this Business Insider article grudgingly concedes that Tesla's stock is ready for a rebound

    Meanwhile, the Piper Jaffray note continues to build credibility for TSLA's rise, due to much better demand in Q2 than in Q1.

    What I see is that the shorts waited until they saw a point of potential weakness and then sprang. That point was the ability to cap 210, push the stock down to the mid-bollinger band, and hold it there. Looking at the daily chart, you can see the manipulations really picked up on Friday both because of the apparent capping, the apparent icicles in trading, and the jump in percentage of TSLA selling by shorts (see chart below). Other potential indications of significant manipulations are the 311K shares traded in the first minute of market trading and the 400K shares traded in the final minute of market trading. Shorts are now trying to sell the story that Tesla is about to bounce off the mid-bb for the third time in a row and then go lower.

    Notice that where there is a max effort push by the shorts to make TSLA decline, it is profitable for the manipulators. All the legitimate long day traders plus the anti-Tesla traders who bought at opening on Friday and sold near the 210 cap price made money. That's also true with the shorts who pushed TSLA down from 210 to 204.50. What you would expect would be a mandatory morning dip on Monday to try and instill some fear in longs that the rise of TSLA is now over.

    An inconvenient news story intervened, however. Trump and Mexico on Friday night announced an agreement about the border which will avoid tariffs. Such a development will most likely lead to a nice rally for broader markets on Monday. How do the enemies of Tesla cope with such a development?

    One technique could be to really push hard on Monday morning's mandatory morning dip to try to persuade investors that Tesla is not where you want to invest your money on such a big macro day. The problem is that if this dip is defeated fairly quickly, it can lead to a nice rally for TSLA.

    Another technique is to admit that TSLA will have a good week ahead (both with healthy macros and with Tuesday's annual meeting). That's apparently what Business Insider did with its above referenced article about TSLA being ready to rebound. Writer Matthew DeBord gave 5 reasons why Tesla could bounce back in the second half of this year, but he of course used the text to disparage the company as much as possible while saying something positive.

    So, overall, I expect shorts to try to keep TSLA from rising Monday morning, and an MMD would be the most likely tactic. This tactic will probably fail because of the strength of macros and the strength of positive news about Tesla's improving perception of having more demand than originally thought by the market. An alternative plan for the shorts would be either a 10:30am pushdown or a cap at 210 (if they can hold it) and then an afternoon pushdown. Outfits such as Business Insider are all but conceding that it will fail, so they're not helping the cause of the shorts. If you have some dry powder, consider watching for an MMD on Monday that then rallies and breaks 210 with some authority.

    jun7short.png
    TSLA shorts were tagged with 45% of TSLA selling, up substantially from Tuesday



    jun7ihor.png
    Meanwhile, Dusaniwsky thinks it's going to be tough for the big shorts to get in much deeper than they already are.


    jun7tech.png
    The big story of the tech chart is that for the past two days, TSLA's climb has been stalled at the mid-bollinger band. What Tesla needs right now is a close a fair amount above the mid-bb, and Monday's macros might enable such a move. Fingers crossed and looking forward to the trading.

    For the week, TSLA closed at 204.50, up 19.34 from last Friday's 185.16. We are good and ready for a green week. Have a great weekend.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 263 (1.02%)
    * NASDAQ up 127 (1.66%)
    * TSLA 204.50, down 1.45 (0.70%)
    * TSLA volume 16M shares
    * Oil 53.99 on 6/8
    * Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 45%
     
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  12. Theshadows

    Theshadows Active Member

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    What is a MMD? Mid morning dip?
     
  13. madodel

    madodel X at the end of a rainbow

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    "Mandatory Morning Dip"
     
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  14. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    jun10chart.png
    Today's trading of TSLA followed the NASDAQ's trajectory to a large extent, but there were notable exceptions. The shorts appeared to have tried to discourage the rally early on with selling of 52K shares at 9:40 to start a small pushdown and multiple pushes in the 10K to 20K range. Both TSLA and the NASDAQ peaked a bit before 12 noon, and even the 2:15ish dip of the NASDAQ was reflected in TSLA. Volume was rather low for such a big up day (10.3M shares), suggesting that TSLA wasn't pulling money from other stocks but was running higher along with the other stocks.

    Taking a closer look at TSLA trading, you can see apparent capping in the 216 area. This is not a known resistance area to my knowledge. I think the capping was perhaps shorts looking to hold TSLA from climbing higher, with a plan to push the SP below 215 prior to close. With the exception of the 2:15pm dips, look at how horizontal the TSLA trading line was in the afternoon... not deviating far from 213.

    Was there demand to push TSLA to a higher close? I think so because take a look at how the stock performed shortly after market close and throughout after-hours trading. An after-hours close of 215.25 is 2.38 higher than the market close of 212.88. Such a big after-hours climb suggests a nice open tomorrow (FUD and macros permitting).

    Overall, for manipulations I think we saw too much buying for a mandatory morning dip (MMD) to succeed, too much continued climbing for a 10:30am pushdown to succeed, and we saw the shorts pull off a small push into close that corresponded with a NASDAQ dip into close, but traders clearly saw 212.88 as inconsistent with demand for the stock and it was consequently bid up to 215.xx for the after-hours close. A robust 225K shares trading hands in the final minute of market trading gives credibility to the idea that some manipulations were indeed underway.

    jun10nas.png
    The NASDAQ closed up 1.05%, more than 3 times as great a gain as the DOW

    jun10ihor.png
    One of the most eye-opening moments of the day was when Ihor Dusaniwsky pointed out that we still haven't seen much short covering of consequence, with short interest actually growing while TSLA's price went up 10%. Funny how the shorts point fingers at us and call us a cult. The good news, of course, is that the stock gains from the shorts unwinding their positions still lies in the future and that all these gains so far have been against a headwind of short selling. Wait 'til we get a tailwind. You will enjoy it.


    jun10tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart for May and early June, you can see the very substantial bounce that is already underway, and at last TSLA has climbed above the mid-bollinger band. That steeply plunging upper-bb, which is presently at 234.94 should be flattening out soon. It will become resistance at some point.

    Notice how many of the trading days in this bounce have long stems from low to high, but the beginning and ending of trading prices are very close together? I suggest that this inability to gain during the day but rather from day-to-day is a product of manipulations being applied by shorts during the trading days. The market then sees the ending price of the previous day as attractive and bids the price up on open.

    What can we expect tomorrow as word of the annual meeting news filters into the marketplace during after-hours? Elon's talking about Tesla should be positive overall. Normally, these annual meetings don't more the stock price, but I do remember last year's meeting did in fact give the SP a boost, so don't count it out. On the other hand, don't assume that all will be roses. The announcement of more executive departures could create a pressure that is contrary to the otherwise good news you'd expect from such an event. As I said before, I deal with such uncertainties by keeping my investment horizon focused at least a year or two down the road.

    Despite obvious efforts by the shorts, by analysts friendly to them, and by the media, TSLA has reached 215 at close of after-hours trading today. This is a great start on recovering TSLA's lost momentum and suggesting that the market is starting to look with skepticism at the media and short-seller rantings of the past month. Ultimately, Q2's P&D report plus the financials of Q2 will carry the most weight.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 79 (0.30%)
    * NASDAQ up 81 (1.05%)
    * TSLA 212.88, up 8.38 (4.10%)
    * TSLA volume 10.3M shares
    * Oil 53.50
    * Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 41.3%
     
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  15. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    jun11chartfull.png
    Let's first consider TSLA's trading before the annual meeting. In market trading today, TSLA showed significant enthusiasm on open (as we expected), but with the NASDAQ heading downward and shorts doing their typical manipulations, most of the morning's gains were given up by noon. The NASDAQ stayed in the cellar, but TSLA recovered to 217, marking its 5th positive day during the past 6. The likely reason for the recovery was the afternoon's annual meeting, where Elon could add additional reinforcement to the news already leaked that Q2 is looking good and that demand is not a problem. The danger of the annual meeting would be if one or more key executives announced their retirement.

    A robust 46.5% of TSLA selling being done by shorts today suggests they fought TSLA's afternoon recovery and likely were responsible for the rather deep morning dips.

    jun11nas.png
    The NASDAQ lost 0.01% today, closing nearly flat after a nicely green opening

    When Tesla's Chair Robin Denholm began talking, the stock price started rising. When Elon invited JB Staubel on stage, the stock price spiked, as many felt some relief that this involvement suggested JB would be remaining with Tesla. Elon's comments that Tesla might still be on track for a record quarter was well received, but his comment about higher on all metrics resulted in some head scratching. .Apparently plans for Tesla insurance are still in the future. Elon on multiple occasions reiterated that demand is not an issue.

    TSLA closed in after-hours at 225.50, up 8.40 from 217.10.

    To view a replay of the Annual Meeting, click here.

    jun11short.png
    Shorts were tagged with 46.5% of TSLA selling today, suggesting a fair amount of manipulations

    jun11shortint.png
    Today we learned that at the end of May, shorts held 43.6 million shares of TSLA. Dusaniwsky (see yesterday's chart) was suggesting that shorts held around 39 M shares at end of May, about 4.6 million shares too low. According to Dusaniwsky, short interest has risen in June, so we have a real boatload of shorts on board just as TSLA news is turning more and more positive. Further, the high levels of shorting at the end of May suggests enormous headwinds of shorting were impacting TSLA trading that month.


    jun11tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart, you can still see the robust recovery from the low and wide trading ranges within days but open and close prices still very narrowly squished together by short antics during the trading day. The good news is that the bollinger bands are now curivng to horizontal from their long steep descents.


    jun11wedge.png
    Looking at the extended tech chart, I have entered in black the "descending wedge" that tech traders have been watching. By mid-May TSLA descended well below the bottom of the wedge, but notice that it has re-entered the wedge after today's climb. By the time TSLA reaches 240, it will be busting out of the wedge, which would be a bullish signal to tech traders.

    So, where do we go from here? A big jump upwards from market closing price is likely. The big question is whether investors are going to jump in after today's annual meeting and the stock takes off and roars upwards over multiple days, or whether we see a big climb right after opening on Wednesday and the shorts, still as skeptical as ever, spend the resources to engineer an afternoon fade. Once big institutional investors start buying again, we'll see some relief from the afternoon fades. Looking forward to pushing a bit higher and getting the big dog investors buying or the shorts covering in numbers.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 14 (0.05%)
    * NASDAQ down 1 (0.01%)
    * TSLA 217.10, up 4.22 (1.98%)
    * TSLA volume 10.9M shares
    * Oil 52.84
    * Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 46.5%
     
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  16. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #2556 Papafox, Jun 12, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019
    jun12chart.png
    Today was one of those unpredictable days for TSLA. On the up side, the annual meeting's content was very positive with no announcements of executive departures. On the down side, shorts have been waiting for a moment to jump in and reassert themselves, and a short the news day after the meeting fit the bill, with a slightly negative macro setup. I fully expected the shorts might push down in the afternoon, but I was surprised by how early the attack began.

    In early pre-market trading, small investors (who make up the pre and after market trading) were optimistic after the annual meeting and bid TSLA above 226. The downslope in pre-market trading should have been a clue that something was up, however, and we saw a full fledged bear raid to establish a mandatory morning dip and define the annual meeting as either negative or inconsequential. TSLA tried to recover by 1:00pm, but as the lower volume afternoon hours arrived, some large sales in 1 minute increments by the foes of Tesla pushed the stock down. For example, nearly 90K shares were sold between 2:21-2:22pm. A massive 44K shares were sold at 3:43pm. If big institutional holders of TSLA were selling, they would do so in smooth increments in an attempt to avoid dropping the stock price. These huge sales in 1 or 2 minute time frames are historically the work of shorts forcing the stock lower. Notice the significant lumpiness to the trading which is similar to icicles but the buy back is a bit quicker. I suspect there are quite a few swing traders playing TSLA, and a bear raid such as today's brings them into a position to push down along with the shorts until the next reversal becomes evident.


    jun12nas.png
    The NASDAQ dipped a mere 0.38%, which did not at all justify TSLA's dip

    To a certain extent, the bear raid caused some longs to say "well, here we go again" and do some protective selling with plans to repurchase once the uptrend reestablished itself. How successful the shorts will be in pushing down further depends upon macros and how successful future FUD can be.

    One part of the annual meeting I'd like to give emphasis to today was the moment when Elon talked about the need for a battery/powertrain investor day take place this year. He, JB, and and Drew were positively giddy when talking about the new technologies. I really think this event will be a big catalyst for TSLA once its date is announced and once the implications of the new technologies are made public during the event.

    Positive news coverage includes:
    Tesla chart looks like Netfix did a decade ago
    Baird note from Ben Kallo

    jun12ihor.png
    Here's a revised short interest chart from Dusaniwsky. His revision of shorting to nearly 46 million now reflects the May 31 short interest numbers released by NASDAQ, and the steep climb over the past couple days is more of a means of bringing the total to an accurate number rather than a reflection of how much shorting took place in the past couple days.

    Overall, having nearly 46 million shares shorted when we are this close to the end of what should be a positive quarter gives me hope that we'll see a very spirited fast departure of many shorts some time this year. Big institutional buyers are not likely to jump in until they have hard numbers to work with, most likely after the Q2 ER in August if those numbers are good. Some shorts may start departing as we approach the Q2 P&D report in early July, nearly three weeks away.

    jun12tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart, TSLA is still above the upper bollinger band and I suspect the shorts would like to see us under that band before the dip is over. The good news is that a lot of investors realize that Q2 could be a good quarter, and when the stock price does turn around and starts climbing again, I suspect it may run higher with enthusiasm as longs wish to be sufficiently loaded prior to the early July P&D report.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 44 (0.17%)
    * NASDAQ down 30 (0.38%)
    * TSLA 209.26, down 7.84 (3.61%)
    * TSLA volume 15.0M shares
    * Oil 51.14
    * Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 42.5%
     
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  17. PeterJA

    PeterJA Member

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    I thought the same after Autonomy Day, but alas. After that event and today, I'm prepared for TSLA to be held down for quite a while by the "powerful forces" Elon mentioned yesterday (shorts, disinformation campaign).

    But as you and Cathie Wood said, the longer TSLA gets held down, the tighter the spring gets compressed. Maybe Jonas's oscillating head will have to twist right off before the stock explodes. I'm happy to wait and keep buying.
     
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  18. Remus

    Remus Active Member

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    #2558 Remus, Jun 12, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 13, 2019
    I think this would be different from autonomous driving. Nobody has autonomous ready, it's easy to spin uncertainty there. But Tesla has demonstrated it's lead in battery technology for years. It is much harder to spin it.

    Mod: reminder NOT to have discussion like this in this thread.

    Handy hint. Select the post you want to reply to instead of
    REPLY hit " + QUOTE.It's just there to the left of REPLY. Go to general thread (or other appropriate thread). Go down to the posting box and there's a button on the left saying INSERT QUOTES. Use it.

    --ggr.
     
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  19. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    jun13chart2.png
    Today was an important day for TSLA longs as it showed that shorts were no longer in control of the stock price. Yesterday was likely a combination of profit taking, reactions to down macros, and manipulative selling by the shorts. Today there was indeed evidence of short mischief, but the plans of shortie were overridden by longs who see the current price as attractive, given what has been communicated so far about the prospects of a good Q2 performance.

    Market trading began with a sizable exchange of shares, 176K, in the opening minute. Immediately afterwards, someone started dumping shares to engineer a mandatory morning dip, but unlike yesterday there were sufficient buyers standing by at these sale prices to scoop up shares. Once TSLA returned to the green it shot above 214 but then gyrated up and down and shorts and longs worked to determine the stock's direction for the morning. Alas, shorts could never hold a downline for long, and as the final hour approached, longs bid the stock up to nearly 214 for the close. All in all, it was a very solid day of trading for TSLA and suggests that demand for shares at these prices is too great for the shorts to take command in a benign macro environment.

    jun13nas.png
    The NASDAQ closed up 0.57%

    For news:
    * Reuters lacked a negative story to throw at Tesla and so recycled a story about no relief on China tariffs from late May.
    * One member of Tesla's autopilot team left in this after-hours story, which might explain the small dip midway through after-hours trading


    jun13short.png
    Shorts were tagged with 37% of selling today


    jun13tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart, you can see that TSLA is stabilizing above the mid-bollinger band, which is now flattening out.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 102 (0.39%)
    * NASDAQ up 44 (0.57%)
    * TSLA 213.91, up 4.65 (2.22%)
    * TSLA volume 8.0M shares
    * Oil 52.08
    * Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 37%
     
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  20. CalX

    CalX Member

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    What is the maximum percent of the float that can be shorted realistically?
     

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