Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today was trading day 3 of mixed-to-neutral macros, and TSLA once again traded up. This time, however, the manipulators clearly put in more effort trying to disrupt TSLA's eventual climb than they did yesterday. The mandatory morning dip brought TSLA to a low of about 229.30 around 9:40am and then the stock headed higher. a few series of whack-the-mole took place until about 11am and then TSLA began a substantial climb. Notice the huge trading spike at 58K shares at 10:32am. You'd think this would be a buying spike, but actually TSLA dropped 10 cents on that minute, suggesting someone was selling like sugar to stop the climb and didn't make much progress. For nearly an hour beginning around 1:35pm, we saw apparent capping to keep TSLA below 235, followed by another big selling spike of 46K shares at 2:24pm, which served its intended purpose and pulled TSLA down a dollar. The bulls weren't through for the day, however, and with the NASDAQ heading upwards in the final half hour, TSLA managed to close above 235.

With 130K shares sold in the final minute of market trading and with a jump up to 36% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts today, TSLA was certainly seeing attempts to manipulate lower but the buyers kept buying.

News today included more info on the VW ID.3 that shows the vehicle just isn't very good at highway range. Almost certainly the culprit is a form factor that looks good to the eye but is lousy at aerodynamics. We'll get a chance to see what European shoppers really value, a cute little in-town car, or something that is long road-trip attractive such as a Tesla Model 3. I suspect there will be plenty of buyers for both types of cars.

Other news:
* Forbes published a hit piece that covers all the dated bear concerns about TSLA but doesn't do a decent job of looking at where Tesla is currently heading with its Q3 gains.
* The Street published a bullish article that says that TSLA could rally 15% to 268 if certain technical marks are achieved

From high to low, the NASDAQ varied about 1% today before closing close to neutral with a 0.04% loss

From the wack-a-mole to the huge selling spikes, to the nearly one hour of capping at 235, manipulators were working TSLA today but not having great luck at it. Shorts were tagged with 36% of TSLA selling today.

Take a look at what is developing on the options side. Call buyers are going for 242.50s in a big way with 6K in open interest set to expire on Friday. 240s are also popular, which means that perhaps the hedge funds will be forced to defend 240 and 242.50 while TSLA runs up through the 230s. Fingers crossed.

Looking at the tech chart, please notice that we seldom went 5 trading days without a big dip on steroids (macro or FUD plus short-selling to put the dip on steroids). Notice that the hedge funds now need such a day badly soon to keep TSLA from running above the strike prices of calls they sold that expire on Friday. So far this week, the manipulators have been 0 for 2 in stopping the bull charge. Don't be surprised to see another attempt at an MMD in the morning.

A big development today was TSLA closing above the 50 day moving average (shown in blue). The 50 DMA was one of the technical points mentioned in The Street article referenced earlier. I suspect shorty will put his best foot forward in trying to steal that 50 DMA back in the morning. If he fails, the bulls will likely want to run further.

Conditions:
* Dow up 74 (0.28%)
* NASDAQ down 3 (0.04%)
* TSLA 235.54, up 3.75 (1.62%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 57.92
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 36%

 

[Papafox]

Today a pathetic mandatory morning dip bottomed out about 8 minutes after opening and as it was soundly dispatched, investors took advantage of this positive indication and the stock price soared on a volume of 10 million shares. Helping out were positive macros throughout the day, with the NASDAQ closing up 1% at close.

To understand what's going on, one needs to look at the big picture. Since late July when TSLA fell after the 3Q ER, the stock price has been moving up and down with a slightly negative trajectory. Volume traded was low and hedge funds which sold the calls expiring that Friday were successful time and again at manipulating TSLA sufficiently to keep the stock closing below the strike prices of the most heavily sold call options. Every five trading days or so, FUD or a negative macro event would set up a dip on steroids as short-selling during the dip turned it into a much deeper one. In recent weeks, TSLA clearly was trying to climb when FUD or macro pushdowns weren't present, but the climbs were slightly overridden by the push-down days. In the past three weeks, however, TSLA started showing more strength and the slight downtrend turned into a shallow climb. Today the market decided that TSLA is through the duldrums and ready to climb, and investors started jumping back in.

Why has sentiment improved recently? Those of us who track European deliveries see a Q3 that looks to exceed Q2, which suggests improvements in production too because the Model 3s would not be in such ready supply without production improvements. First Porsche, and then VW revealed their new EVs, and these two manufacturers were thought of as likely to produce the strongest products from existing automakers. When compared to Tesla's vehicles, however, the competition exposed itself as being unable to offer products that truly could compete with Tesla's EVs. I believe that big investors and perhaps institutional investors realized Tesla's quiet but capable moves this past quarter and the competitive advantages and realized now was the time to buy back in. Yesterday's article that speculated on a TSLA rise to 268 (the 200 day moving average) added to the positive feelings.

The NASDAQ closed up today by 1.06%

Were shorts who were covering the reason for today's pop? Check out Ihor Dusaniwsky's view below:

You can see that throughout August and September, short interest hasn't varied much from 39 million shares. Where we tend to see the shorts jump ship is toward the ATH prices, when they are really hurting and margins calls are going out. It looks like they're preparing to continue upon their consistent sell low and buy high approach to TSLA investing.

Shorts were tagged with 39.5% of TSLA selling today. I would have guessed much lower, since TSLA was a bulldozer today and any attempts to short would be dispatched with prejudice. Apparently the hedge funds are getting pretty desperate to see TSLA fall back under their control and they manipulated in manners which surely cost them money for the percent of selling by shorts number to reach nearly 40% today. The strength of the climb (even when you consider the mischief that 39.5% of selling by shorts implies) plus the volume of 10M shares suggests that someone big has entered a buying phase at TSLA.

Here's the tech chart and let me break the bad news first. The highest number of consecutive positive days in a row we've seen these past three months has been 3. We just finished positive day 3 today. Secondly, look at how high TSLA is above the upper bollinger band. Generally, the price will either dip to within the bands within 2 days or the bands will rise to meet the stock price within that time period.With all those 242.50 and 245 call options out there, I doubt the hedge funds will relax tomorrow and Friday.

Now the good news. Check out the big jump above the upper bb just prior to July 8. Ah, you say, the stock price fell afterwards. While this is true, notice that the big jump above the upper bb marked the beginning of the upward march toward the 2Q ER as the stock price hugged the upper bb? A day like today can indeed be a positive signal, even if the next day or two aren't so positive.

Where does TSLA go tomorrow? Being well above the upper bb after three positive days of trading suggests a bit of a pullback. On the other hand, TSLA is still cheap and other investors may be waking up to the potential today for further SP appreciation. Additionally, China and the U.S. have been reducing or delaying tariffs recently, which has sent the macro futures up for tomorrow. Thus, tomorrow is a tough one to call, but the remainder of September looks promising.

Conditions:
* Dow up 228 (0.85%)
* NASDAQ up 86 (1.06%)
* TSLA 247.10, up 11.56 (4.91%)
* TSLA volume 10.0M shares
* Oil 56.30
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 39.5%

 

[Todd Burch]

Thanks Pops. I assume you wrote the above before all the Plaid announcements? Suspect the Laguna Seca record plus “unveiling” of the Plaid S couldn’t hurt tomorrow...

 

[Papafox]

Anyone notice some volatility today? Taking a look at the NASDAQ and comparing the ups and down to TSLA, you can see some of the movements were similar but guess what? The NASDAQ high to low was not much more than half a percent while TSLA's high to low fluctuations were about 3.5% or 7X as strong as the NASDAQ's. Meaning? The correlation between the NASDAQ and TSLA's performance today is window-dressing used by hedge funds to disguise the manipulations taking place. Further, the NASDAQ stayed in the green the whole day but TSLA ran up and down in what amounted to a mega game of whack-the-mole that started at market open and ended only when the market closed.

As confirmation that manipulations are indeed happening, just look at the volume by minute of some of the selling spikes, especially the one right after noon and the strong spikes in the morning when TSLA was crazy volatile. We also saw a large pre-arranged trade in after-hours trading, and I suggest that these pre-arranged trades are most commonly seen when there's lots of manipulations underway and hedge funds are trying to cover after the day's manipulative selling.

The NASDAQ closed up 0.30% today on a very benign day of trading

Here's what I think is happening. Yesterday's trading suggests TSLA is on the verge of a nice breakout, and so there's plenty of reactive buying.When TSLA is rising, traders on the sidelines are jumping in. When TSLA reverses course and dips, traders jump out, worried they made a mistake. Overall, there's upward push at TSLA, but there's also a considerable amount of selling designed to keep TSLA from running any higher this week. Here's a rundown of the players:
* Long-time investors- They're not selling and are patiently waiting for more price appreciation
* Potential small investors- They're ready to buy in if TSLA is rising but they're worried about buying in at the top of a rally and so when TSLA dips, they wait. They are like traders today, reactive.
* Short-term traders- These people made money yesterday and they're trying to time their sales to cash in on those gains. When TSLA runs about 250 and then starts descending, they're ready to sell, but they have to sell quickly because TSLA dips back down quickly, due both to hedge fund selling to protect the stock price and because of trader selling to take gains after yesterday
* Big Investors- These are the buyers who likely ignited the runup yesterday. They likely see Tesla turning around and are getting in for a long stretch, but they tend to be somewhat conservative in the buying, such as avoiding picking up the stock when it is above the upper bollinger band. Consequently, they likely backed off on buying today and are waiting for the upper bb to catch TSLA before resuming buying.
* Hedge funds- They've been selling hard yesterday and today to stem the runups and then covering during the day to reload. They would love to see TSLA go as low as possible this week but certainly need to see it get below 245 and then hopefully 240 because they're taking big losses if that dip doesn't take place
* Market makers- They typically aren't really worried because they sell both puts and calls and delta-hedge to reduce risk. Looking at the Opricot chart below, they'd be happy with a 240 close because that is the effective transition point where calls give way to puts. Market makers will sometimes manipulate on Friday afternoons because it's hard to be perfectly delta-hedged with large Friday price changes taking place.

From today's Opricot.com max pain graph, you can see that 240 is the effective max pain number and the hedge funds lose lots of money if TSLA closes over 245.

The market awareness delay
We Teslaholics are so saturated in Tesla news that we forget sometimes that it can take a while for the market to catch up with us. For example, we understand that when China granted Tesla buyers a reprieve from the 10% purchase tax, this would be a big deal. When the hedge funds manipulated sufficiently to reduce the stock price gain from this news, we should have known that the gain would come eventually. This tweet from China suggests that sales have picked up nicely since the tax break. It's entirely possible that big investors have people on the ground in China who confirmed this news and the buying yesterday may have been spurred on by such knowledge, combined with other positive developments. For example, deliveries are really doing well in the Netherlands and Tesla has almost equaled the sales of the entire Q2. Big investors look at all this news to make decisions, but there's a delay from when you and I see the trend to when they often make the buying decision.

Another bias of us Teslaholics is that we are often Tesla owners and drivers and we get really charged up by news of the new plaid versions of S and X likely coming in about a year. The racing developments at the ring in Germany fascinate us, but again there's a real delay before the market starts assigning $ to these developments. The good news is that a delay isn't a bad thing, unless you're betting on short-term options. Take a long position on good news and give the market some time to catch up.

Taking a look at the tech chart, you can see that the upper bollinger band is rising quickly and at 243.72.is only about 2 dollars away from catching the stock price at the moment. Once the upper bb catches the stock price, large investors will be more willing to resume buying.

What do I expect for Friday? Lots of extremely different scenarios can happen. The most likely one is that if macros remain more or less neutral, the combination of hedge funds and market makers might nudge TSLA to a close below 245. With somewhat more negative macros they might achieve 242.50 or 240. On the other hand, looking at the spikes in buying this morning, you can see that investors don't want to get left behind if TSLA starts climbing like a homesick angel tomorrow, and so if TSLA gets a solid climb going and can hold it, there's room for a good climb tomorrow. I would suggest, however, that without participation of the big investors the hedge funds have a much better chance of pulling off tomorrow what they pulled off today. Next week could be much more lucrative for us Tesla longs, however. Bottom line: the hedge funds have quite a strong ability to influence the stock price in the short term, but when volume of buying increases with participation of the big investors, the hedge funds lose their advantage and are at the mercy of the market. It's all about getting the big investors buying again.

Conditions:
* Dow up 45 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ up 25 (0.30%)
* TSLA 245.87, down 1.23 (0.50%)
* TSLA volume 8.4M shares
* Oil 55.25
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 34%

 

[MABMAB]

I think the use of the phrase window dressing lacks precision in last nights expose'. Window dressing is used in a different manner pertaining to the stock market.

Stock Market: Ignore Last Week's 'Window Dressing' - Look Ahead

Learn about Window Dressing

"Pre arranged" after hours trades? I don't buy it. Large funds can execute VWAP and market on close orders.

VWAP Algo (Best-Efforts) | Interactive Brokers

VWAP

Market-on-Close (MOC) Orders | Interactive Brokers

 

[Papafox]

My apologies for being so much less accurate with this week's closing price prediction. Last Friday we guessed within 5 cents of the closing price and this week the prevailing prediction from a wider range of possibilities was a full 20 cents off. That's a 400% deterioration! I'll see if I can tighten it up in the coming week. All sarcasm aside, the ability to use the hedge fund manipulation model for predicting closing prices this closely suggests that we are indeed onto something here.

You'll notice the chart above has changed from the green/red chart I've used for years. NASDAQ just decided out of the blue to get rid of that previous chart (as far as I can tell). If anyone has a suggestion of a really nice chart to use for TSLA daily trading, please send me a PM and a link.

Looking at the daily chart, it's not hard to see the trend setting up for a 245 close. The early 248 exuberance was cut short, as was a near 247 spike. For most of the rest of the day, TSLA didn't want to get much below 246 and the hedge funds with the help of market makers had to do some real pushing towards the end of the day in order to manipulate TSLA down to their target. Notice that percent of selling by shorts jumped up to 42%, reflecting the effort needed. Volume was light at 5.1M shares, suggesting longs aren't budging.

The NASDAQ traded near neutral in the morning and then dipped slightly in afternoon to close down a slight 0.22%

Shorts were tagged with 42% of TSLA selling on Friday because we longs weren't willing to part with our shares easily, and it took a large manipulation effort to reach the hedge fund's target of 245. Nonetheless, lots of 242.50 and 240 calls expired in the money, and so hedge funds took a hair cut this week.

Looking at the tech chart, I have marked the stock trend in cyan color from the beginning of September to close on Friday. It's a really nice rally so far with about as steep a slope as is sustainable. As typically happens, the SP dip plus the upper bb continued climb led to the price closing within the bollinger bands two days after Wednesday's big run upwards. Currently the upper bb stands at 246.64 and we could see a nice climb into the P&D report if TSLA establishes the same "following the upper bb" pattern as last quarter.

Providing rocket fuel to the climb is apparent good results from deliveries worldwide as we enter the final 2 weeks of Q3. Another source of potential positive stimulus is this tweet from Elon that says in the coming week we'll see early access rollout in the U.S. of smart summon as part of updated software to all buyers who purchased FSD. This rollout might enable Tesla to show as profits a portion of the previous FSD sales. Also, notice this week how any steep climb often extended into a longer climb than you'd expect before it reversed? This is an "I don't want to be left behind" reaction from longs and traders who are sitting on the sidelines but watching TSLA carefully on when to reenter. We have the potential for enthusiastic climbs next week and the following week. Macro negativity and successful FUD could provide the opposite effect, but the trend is clearly upwards with TSLA right now.

For the week, TSLA closed at 245.20, up 17.75 from last Friday's 227.45. This is the third week in a row of climbing. Leading into Q2 P&D report and then the ER, we saw 7 positive weeks in a row. Have a great weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 37 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.22%)
* TSLA 245.20, down 0.67 (0.27%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 54.85
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 42%

 

[MABMAB]

For a one day chart, to compare to what large institutions are doing, I would suggest a chart that incorporates VWAP.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) [ChartSchool]
especially read the heading "Uses for VWAP" to understand.
One could also read more on their own regarding VWAP.

I read and learned a lot about it from Brian Shannon:

 

[owlafaye]

For a one day chart, to compare to what large institutions are doing, I would suggest a chart that incorporates VWAP.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) [ChartSchool]
especially read the heading "Uses for VWAP" to understand.
One could also read more on their own regarding VWAP.

I read and learned a lot about it from Brian Shannon:

"Yesterday at 2:23 AM" tells me absolutely nothing. New here and there don't seem to be any directions or order. I am trying to watch/follow "papafox" however the date isn't on any of these posts.

 

[Chasingmars]

"Yesterday at 2:23 AM" tells me absolutely nothing. New here and there don't seem to be any directions or order. I am trying to watch/follow "papafox" however the date isn't on any of these posts.

My understanding: Posts are marked Today and Yesterday relative to when you access them, by day of week for the (I think) four or five days before that (i.e. the latest occurrence of that day of the week), and then by date prior. So if you look at something currently marked yesterday in a week from now, at that time it will have a date on the top. "Joined" seems to work the same way - right now it shows you joined Wednesday (last Wednesday, that being 11 Sep 2019) ... once that is no longer "last Wednesday" it will start showing up as a date.

 

[ggr]

My understanding: Posts are marked Today and Yesterday relative to when you access them, by day of week for the (I think) four or five days before that (i.e. the latest occurrence of that day of the week), and then by date prior. So if you look at something currently marked yesterday in a week from now, at that time it will have a date on the top. "Joined" seems to work the same way - right now it shows you joined Wednesday (last Wednesday, that being 11 Sep 2019) ... once that is no longer "last Wednesday" it will start showing up as a date.

Oh, is that what his question meant? I couldn't figure it out. You are correct, but bear in mind that TMC is hosted in the CA bay area, so you have to interpret all dates and times as if you are in California.

 

[MP3Mike]

Oh, is that what his question meant? I couldn't figure it out. You are correct, but bear in mind that TMC is hosted in the CA bay area, so you have to interpret all dates and times as if you are in California.

Actually it adjusts and displays them according to whatever time zone you have selected in your profile.

 

[ggr]

Actually it adjusts and displays them according to whatever time zone you have selected in your profile.

Oh, nice to know... I travel a lot and it always shows me CA time, I just assumed that was how it worked. I didn't remember telling it my time zone.

 

[Papafox]

For now we're using the MarketWatch chart above to replace the unavailable NASDAQ daily chart, unless something better comes along (thanks for the suggestion, Wolfgang). I'll look at Mabmab's VWAP suggestion.

Today was disappointing for a few reasons. First, the low volume of 4.6M shares traded suggests there's no big institution accumulating at this time, now that the SP is below the upper bollinger band. Last week's surge was more likely caused by smaller investors and traders who believed a major breakout was imminent.

In order to dissuade investors that something very positive might be in the future for this stock, it looks like the hedge funds upped their game and sold profusely today to keep this stock, which was trading at times above 248 in pre-market trading, from running higher and continuing the rally. Between a slightly negative macro day and an incredible 54% of selling being tagged to shorts, investors could have come away from today with the opinion that TSLA just lost its incentive to climb. If you believe that 54% of the selling was indeed tagged to shorts, though, then the opinion is more likely to be one of a clever but heavy-handed effort to artificially depress the stock price today. What's lacking are the usual icicles of blatant short-selling manipulations, and I'm having a hard time resolving the extra-high level of selling tagged to shorts with the lack of apparent short-manipulation artifacts.

The NASDAQ dipped just 0.28% today. TSLA's dip was nearly four times that amount.

TSLA shorts were tagged with a substantial 54% of TSLA selling today. If shorts were accumulating and thereby increasing short interest, we'll soon enough hear about it from Ihor Dusaniwsky. If not, then it's an over-the-top instance of manipulative trading.

I include the Opricot open interest chart above. Notice that all those option points such as 240, 245, and 250 have nearly-even numbers of puts and calls. Notice, too, that those calls are already 5-7K in number, which is a lot for this time of the week. The near even numbers of puts and calls suggests that the regular market makers are comfortable with the situation because one type of option cancels the other out. The hedge funds, on the other hand, have lots at stake if they only sold calls and if they have not delta-hedged. For this reason, don't be surprised to see yet another week with substantial manipulations.

Conditions:
* Dow down 143 (0.52%)
* NASDAQ down 23 (0.28%)
* TSLA 242.81, down 2.39 (0.97%)
* TSLA volume 4.6M shares
* Oil 61.83
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 54%

 

[Papafox]

Today the heavy hand of the hedge fund manipulators was evident in the morning hours as TSLA underperformed the broader markets and bottomed out of its Mandatory Morning Dip around 10:30am. The pattern of manipulation we most commonly see is the dip on steroids, where the broader markets take a downward turn and short-selling is used to exaggerate that dip for TSLA. When the broader markets start heading up, there's often some selling to dampen the climb so that by end of the day TSLA has not fared as well as the NASDAQ.

Alas, today the NASDAQ began a shallow climb after it's 10am-ish dip, and TSLA climbed quicker than the NASDAQ to gain a substantial lead on the broader market. Unfortunately, capping behavior by the hedge funds held TSLA below 245 for the close, even though the NASDAQ climbed throughout the afternoon and enjoyed a strong finish in the final 30 minutes.

Volume was very light at 3.8M shares traded, which made severe manipulations possible and with Tesla shorts tagged with 54% of the stock's selling for the second day in a row, you can bet that these powerful interests were busy shorting the "sugar" out of TSLA today whenever the stock needed the influence, and then gradual covering. Unfortunately for them, with TSLA generally climbing throughout the day, the shorters lost money in most cases if they covered later in the day than their manipulations.

Why such a huge effort to knock TSLA down or at least contain it this week? If you look at the Opricot chart from yesterday (and realize it has been upgraded a bit), you'll see that between 240 and 250 there are a good 20,000 calls expiring on Friday, the equivalent of 2M shares at stake. Extend that range to 260 and add another 10K calls (1M shares). If the hedge funds haven't been delta-hedging their bets, they're in deep doodoo if TSLA rallies this week.

Looking down at the tech chart, you can see that for August the hedge funds enjoyed regular macro and FUD dips that could be exaggerated with short selling (dips on steroids) that allowed these firms to control the stock price. In September, the FUD and the deep macro dips are missing, and so the stock has risen.

In news:
* A plaid Model S has reportedly broken the Taycan's speed record at the ring in Germany by a full 20 seconds. Here's an excellent link with photos.
* Deutsche Bank officials met with Tesla's Investor Relations head in London and came away with a positive opinion of the company's prospects.

The NASDAQ closed up 0.40% today on a relatively benign trading day with a nice upslope and end of day rise.

TSLA shorts were tagged with yet another day at 54% of selling, confirming that the manipulations are extreme and still the stock cannot be pressed down for any depth.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the upper bollinger band now stands at 250.95, which gives some nice headroom for a climb this week if TSLA can defeat the manipulations. The good news is that when TSLA starts climbing, it often climbs steeply as traders quickly jump aboard, along with sidelined longs.

Conditions:
* Dow up 34 (0.13%)
* NASDAQ up 32 (0.40%)
* TSLA 244.79, up 1.98 (0.82%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* Oil 58.87
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 54%

 

[Papafox]

I'm using the chart above for both TSLA and NASDAQ today because it's useful to directly compare the movements of the two. The numbers on the right side are not entirely correct but we still get the general idea. Shortly after opening, there was a flurry of buying that brought the price to nearly 248 until the inevitable pushdown. By 11:45am, the pushdown had gone noticeably below the trajectory of the NASDAQ and a big purchase followed by multiple smaller purchases brought the stock price back in line with the NASDAQ. In the final hour of market trading the NASDAQ rose but enough selling took place to keep TSLA level, which is a favorite tactic of the manipulators. Throughout the week, I have seen significant evidence that someone is working the stock to keep it from rallying right now, but the most apparent piece of evidence is the percent of selling by TSLA shorts number, which rose all the way up to 55% today. Mercy! These manipulations are possible because of the low volumes we're seeing, about 4.2M shares today.

Even though the percentage of selling by shorts has risen dramatically this week, the actual number of shares held by shorts has remained relatively steady, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky. I typically believe that a high percent of selling by shorts suggests manipulative selling during the day and then covering that same day, so as to avoid taking on a higher short position.

Shorts today were tagged with 55% of TSLA selling today, an unusually high number.


Conditions:
* Dow up 36 (0.13%)
* NASDAQ down 9 (0.11%)
* TSLA 243.49, down 1.30 (0.53%)
* TSLA volume 4.2M shares
* Oil 58.23
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts:55%

 

[The Accountant]

@Papafox
You state:
"These manipulations are possible because of the low volumes we're seeing, about 4.2M shares today."
I tend to agree. I took a look at the shares traded for the major indices and found the following:

Dow:
216m Day
295m Avg

S&P 500
1.7B Day
3.5B Avg

Nasdaq
1.8B Day
1.9B Avg

Can you comment on why trading is so low on the Dow and S&P but looking good on Nasdaq? and why TSLA volumes don't mimic the Nasdaq? i would love to see TSLA get back to average volumes.

 

[Papafox]

Thanks to a post in the main thread by @204EV, we've relocated a link to the old NASDAQ daily charts.

Today the NASDAQ was up and Tesla news was positive enough that the hedge funds lost control of TSLA in the first half of the day. The type of icicles you would see with lots of short-selling manipulations on a down day are present today, though they go up instead of down. The up is the underlying upward push for TSLA's stock at the moment. The immediate downs are the hedge funds selling as necessary to suggest there's nothing to see here. Nonetheless, TSLA almost made it to 248 today and hung on to close above 246. The NASDAQ started a slide after 11am, but it's bullish to see that TSLA didn't really follow it down.

Volume was light (4.9M shares) and the reason the volume indicators are nearly invisible in during market hours is because relative to first minute (102K shares) and last minute (352K shares), they are insignificant. There was also a 47K prearranged trade at 4:39pm and another 13K at 4:45pm. All of this trading that doesn't affect the stock price suggests there's lots of horse trading going on as the hedge funds either cover their shorting from today or prepare to assault TSLA tomorrow.

What we very well could see is a repeat of last Thursday and Friday, where TSLA closed at 245.87 and then the next day the hedge funds knocked it down to 245ish. This week, TSLA closed at 246.60 on Thursday, so there's more distance needed to reach 245 target this time around, but the hedge funds look determined, as evidenced by the 53% of selling being attributable to shorts today and lots of trades today that don't raise the stock price. A close near 245 is the most likely scenario, but it is not the only scenario. If the macros are strong on Friday, and if buyers can significantly defeat the mandatory morning dip, then it's possible the rally could overpower the manipulations. I'm not holding my breath, however.

The NASDAQ closed up 0.07% today in trading with light volatility

News today included:
* Adam Jonas of Morgan-Stanley, who a few months ago was bad-talking Tesla just a few months ago, now says that with Model Y and Pickup added to the fleet, Tesla will be in a position to capture a greater percentage of the market. Yes, this is the same Adam Jonas who said nobody is interested in Model Y.
* Tesla tweeted that Model S has shown it can do a 7:20 lap at Nurburgring and plans to return next month to see if it can get the time down to 7:05
* Daimler announced that it will discontinue development of internal combustion engines and will concentrate on EVs in the future. That stunning news from Daimler let to this Twitter exchange today:

So, despite the rather slow stock price action, the past few weeks have been hugely positive for Tesla's future:
* Audi and Jaguar already had showed that their EVs are not serious challengers to Teslas, and more recently the new "Tesla killers" from Porsche and VW were defanged as they too showed they cannot create an that can compete head to head with Tesla. With the Tesla killers under control, the TSLAQ battle cry of "competition is coming" has lost its bite.
* The news from Daimler today confirms that the future belongs to EVs and the industry is moving in that direction.
* Elon Musk has been behaving himself on Twitter and was gracious and respectful to Daimler for their announcement. The CEO is indeed maturing in his social media postings.
* All three of these developments, no direct competition, the auto giants are confirming that EVs are the future, and Elon's greater constraint with his communications, all give institutional investors a much more positive picture of why they should once again invest in TSLA.

Above is a portion of the Opricot max pain chart for Friday's expiration. Although max pain is still listed as 235, if you look at the chart you'll see that every price below 242.50 is dominated by puts and every price to the right is dominated by calls. Thus the effective max pain number is 242.50, and this is where market makers would be the happiest to see Friday's close. The price 245 is pretty close between puts and calls,and so there's not a huge need to push down to that number either, in the minds of the market makers. Thus, the heavy lifting tomorrow will need to be done by the hedge funds that have been shorting the "sugar" out of TSLA this week.

Meanwhile, percentage of TSLA selling tagged to shorts remains at a massive 53%

Looking at the tech chart, you can see the relatively level trading of the past week.


Conditions:
* Dow down 52 (0.19%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.07%)
* TSLA 246.60, up 3.11 (1.28%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 58.78
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%

 

[Papafox]

Regarding the question by @The Accountant about volumes, I really don't follow volumes on the macros enough to provide a decent answer about them. For TSLA, though, the low volume indicates that there's no rush to get into or out of the stock, at present. That may change as we get closer to P&D report day, but for now the longs are not flinching at the various FUD and stock manipulations. The weak longs have been driven out for the most part, along with most of the traders looking to make a fast buck. No doubt we'll repopulate the ranks with traders and weak longs once the stock goes ballistic, but for now there's no reason for such types to enter the game. Q3 of 2019 as well as Q4 will be quarters to prove that Model 3 demand is solid and that Tesla is making continued progress toward profitability (instead of falling gross margins). The real fun comes next year with FCA payments quarterly, GF3 churning out the M3s, Model Y prototypes being spotted, battery day, and continued progress with FSD.

 

[Papafox]

We were ready for a pushdown today, but a volatile NASDAQ gave the various manipulative parties an opportunity for a full-on bear raid.With relatively-low volume (6.1M shares) and with Friday being a quadruple-witching day (4 types of derivatives all expired the same day). Please see the definition below:

From Investopedia:
What Is Quadruple Witching?
Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

I should have figured something was amiss when the quantity of 240 and 242.50 puts multiplied significantly from just yesterday. The heavy buying of puts in this region in just one day suggests that the dip was not just macro-related but was an anticipated event.

Looking at the daily chart above, notice how benign the trading of the NASDAQ was through 1pm but how jagged and exaggerated the TSLA response was. TSLA started a recovery that led us back to 242, and I suspect the big afternoon fight would have been over 242.50, but then the NASDAQ took a rapid dip and you can see that TSLA dipped much more quickly as short-selling magnified the dip significantly (dip on steroids). Now 240 was in play for the manipulators. Look at the little NASDAQ dip around 1:40pm or so, and notice what a Grand Canyon the manipulators were able to make out of that dip.

As TSLA passed below 240 I bought some stock. Here's why. The number of puts at 240 exceeded the number of calls by something like 7K, and I figured the legitimate market makers would protect 240, as long as the macros more or less behaved. The macros settled down and the market-makers did indeed avoid seeing TSLA fall below 240. I suspect there will be plenty of opportunities to sell above 240 next week. A nonsense dip can be a gift if you have the flexibility to put it to use.

Please compare the number of puts in the 240 or 242.50 vicinity today (see above) to yesterday's numbers (see previous daily charts post)

TSLA shorts were tagged with a whopping 65% of selling. Needless to say, the over-the-top percentage of selling by shorts is the primary story today, when combined with the quadruple witching date.

For the week, TSLA closed down 4.58 from last Friday's 245.20. Unless the Tesla story or macros change for the worse over the weekend, expect recovery next week. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 160 (0.59%)
* NASDAQ down 65 (0.80%)
* TSLA 240.62, down 5.98 (2.42%)
* TSLA volume 6.1M shares
* Oil 58.09
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 65%

 

[Papafox]

I have good news, bad news, and more good news.
Good- The typical Monday morning buying exuberance came through by early afternoon, allowing TSLA to undo the Friday mischief, at least temporarily. I sold the Friday shares I bought for under 240 for over 244, and so that play worked well.
Bad- With no news of consequence, manipulators managed to push the stock price down in the low volume afternoon hours to erase most of the day's gains. The only two possible negative news items out there was an old story about the Delaware judge allowing a suit against the Tesla board to go to the next level and a rehashed 2016 lawsuit refocus after PlainSite provided Lora Kolodny of CNBC with some new details which allowed her to recycle this old, old story.
Good- TSLA gained nearly $1 in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market thinks something doesn't smell quite right about the day's trading action.

The deep after-market 232 dip for the sale of 70 shares is bizarre and non-consequential.

Macros were neutral today with the Dow up 0.06% and NASDAQ down 0.06%

With no news of substance and with a relatively neutral macros the recovery from Friday was expected, but the afternoon pushdown was not. The manipulators wanted to suggest that this morning's rise to 245 was the oddity, not the Friday dip on steroids for the quadruple witching derivatives expiration day. Thus, it's manipulation following manipulation to disguise what happened on Friday.

Am I jumping to conclusions? That's always a valid question, so let's look at alternative explanations and see how the evidence supports them.

1) Scenario 1: A big institutional investor is divesting and so we're feeling downward pressure
If this is the case, then why would the percentage of selling by shorts be at 59.5% today? If selling was being led by longs, then you would expect the percentage of selling by shorts number to be low, not high.

2) Scenario 2: Shorts have figured Q3 deliveries will be low and are adding to their positions
I refer you to the Chart from Matthew Unterman, Ihor Dusaniwsky's colleague. You can see that throughout September, short interest has remained amazingly level at about 39 million shares. If shorts were loading up, you would definitely see the tan line climbing in that chart.

3) Scenario 3: Someone is manipulating the "sugar" out of TSLA at present
If this is true, you might in fact see no change in short interest but a big spike in percent of selling by shorts, which is what we're seeing. Notice that the trajectory of TSLA was primarily two rallies and two slow descents. The first slow descent ended about 11am and the second at the closing bell. If a hedge fund is trying to make money while manipulating TSLA, it is most successful when it is able to push the stock downwards so as to cover at a lower price than when the short took place. The first pushdown left little room to cover, but notice how much mischief took place after the closing bell. At 4:00pm, 152K shares traded hands in one minute, and that exchange of shares had zero impact upon the price of TSLA. At 4:32pm, 32K shares traded hands in a pre-arranged trade. Again, this is a great opportunity for the short-selling of the day to be covered at a nice profit. The aim of the manipulators may in fact be to hold TSLA level so that it doesn't rise into the P&D report, but the technique of seeing TSLA close the day at a lower price than when the manipulations began is a potentially profitable endeavor, and we're seeing more and more trading days with a downward trajectory, whether it be a green day like today or a red day.

Shorts were tagged with 59.5% of TSLA selling today

The lack of any increase in short interest recently eliminates shorts loading up on shares as an explanation for TSLA's difficulty in maintaining a climb lately

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the upper bb is above 255 now and gives nice headroom for a climb on good news. Someone clearly doesn't want that to happen, however. Three or even four days of consolidation after the climb from 211 would be reasonable, but we are past the reasonable time now. TSLA doesn't want to go down, but someone is preventing it from going up. What is resulting is a classing cup and handle pattern, which is a bullish technical trader pattern.

Should the P&D report results be encouraging, then there's no way the manipulators will be able to hold back the stock at that point. The problem is that we don't have enough information yet regarding production numbers and Sept. deliveries in the U.S. to really gauge whether the Q3 results will exceed expectations, so there's still a question mark there. As long as there's a question mark, the manipulators apparently are going to continue their illegal mischief. It might be time for tapping on the door at the SEC and seeing if anyone is awake.

Conditions:
* Dow up 15 (0.06%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.06%)
* TSLA 241.23, up 0.61(0.25%)
* TSLA volume 4.4M shares
* Oil 58.36
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 59.5%