I'm not aware of it, but since the report we're looking at is the "Percent of SELLING by shorts", buying would not be included in that report.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
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I'm not aware of it, but since the report we're looking at is the "Percent of SELLING by shorts", buying would not be included in that report.
Papafox, Jack Rickard at EVTV lays out a reasonable case that some of the shorts may well be big oil. We know that the Koch Bros had financed anti-EV activities, which I presume explains some of the trolls on EV sites. Rickards's argument is that slowing the adoption of electric cars through FUD helps extend the amount of profit oil companies make before the inevitable decline sets in. In this scenario, the objective is not necessarily profiting from a short position, but rather using it to call the viability of Tesla into question via depression of its' stock price hence hurting sales. While the FUD limited the stock in 2018 and 2019, now it's becoming obvious that Tesla can sell every car they produce.
To my knowledge, there is no direct evidence of this, so it's sheer speculation. However, the lack of covering for about 20% of the float would be consistent with such an approach as the mark to market paper losses are simply a business expense.
To my knowledge, there is no direct evidence of this, so it's sheer speculation. However, the lack of covering for about 20% of the float would be consistent with such an approach as the mark to market paper losses are simply a business expense.
The scenario Rickard lays out is possible, but something well short of probable. Rickard is correct that some organizations such as Koch Enterprises have a strong incentive to defend fossil fuel vehicles. Consider for a moment if the short has been used for the purpose of slowing down the transition to EVs. The real power of the tactic is when the shares are shorted (which produces downward pressure on the stock price). Maintaining a short position avoids the negative to the manipulators of seeing the stock price rise when covering takes place, but simply holding the short shares merely delays the upward pressure of covering those positions. At what point does such a strategy no longer make sense? If the short positions mean the difference between $500/share and $650/share stock prices, how does this further their goals? Once Tesla is considered a success and has easy access to capital, holding those short shares as TSLA continues to rise strikes me as a rather futile gesture. If Q1 is profitable, there would be no real reason for holding the shares any more, and you would expect to see some covering. It'll be interesting to watch.
You bring up an important question: just who are those shorts who have failed to cover yet? Some are undoubtedly bondholders who are shorting as a hedge, but as @Fact Checking points out, they would be better served by buying a put than shorting. I suspect a good many of the short shares are held by hedge funds such as the one Chanos runs. Chanos and many of the hedge funds are likely smart enough to have purchased some protective calls, but not all of them. The manipulations as we approach Fridays suggests that some of the hedge funds are really trying to protect unhedged calls they sold, and these same hedge funds might be shorting without calls as hedges.
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Yep, looks like Monday morning's buyer exuberance got the buying going enough to bring some of that profit-taking money back into TSLA, which then set off a number of developments. Once it became apparent that Monday would be a strong climb day, shorts started covering after realizing the recent dip was anemic compared to the potential pain ahead. I'll be very curious to see Dusaniwsky's numbers for Monday, but I suspect they'll show substantial covering underway. Part of the reason for the covering may have been that although Dusaniwsky's charts (bottom of the two) as late as Jan 9 suggested net shorting in December, the more recent chart (top one) showed noticeable covering during that time period. The result, I believe, is that some shorts suddenly realized other shorts were sneaking out, and this revelation gave the inspiration to not be the last short holding the bag with TSLA.
Rest assured that with a rise of nearly $50 today, a number of shorts have received margin calls and will be covering in the next couple of days. Also note that the stock price rose in after-hours trading, suggesting a carry-over of some buying pressure to Tuesday morning. Today's losses by the shorts were an astonishing $1.25 billion (in a single day!). In S3's recent article about TSLA, they said, "With 2020 losses mounting, we should see a continuation and probably an acceleration of Tesla’s multi-month short squeeze." My guess is this isn't going to be a VW type of squeeze, but rather a continued run-up of the stock price from these already painful levels as more an more shorts eventually capitulate. Fingers crossed.
In other news, Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer, probably today's best bullish analyst for explaining Tesla's potential and someone with growing credibility, spoke on CNBC today in this clip. His price target is an eye-opening $612. It's interesting to note that the interviewers are not attacking his credibility the way they would have at another time in Tesla's past.
Although the Dow was up only slightly, the NASDAQ closed up 1.04% on improving sentiment regarding the Asian economy.
Notice the slanting gold line in December on this newer chart suggests covering by shorts underway
This slightly older chart suggests net shorting during the month of December.
Shorts were tagged with 54.5% of TSLA shorting today. Bottom line: there was no way that manipulations were going to stop the steamroller today.
Congratulations to longs who have held through this rally. Not only did TSLA top 500 today but it did so with great momentum.
Conditions:
* Dow up 83 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ up 95 (1.04%)
* TSLA 524.86, up 46.91 (9.77%)
* TSLA volume 26.6M shares
* Oil 58.11
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 54.5%
As I previously mentioned, the strategies used by an investor need to reflect that investor's time horizon and risk tolerance. On a personal note, I am someone who was leveraged and super-heavily invested in TSLA with my IRA. I have now reached my long term minimum investment goals, which means I am financially independent from here on out if my TSLA holdings remain valued where they are. Consequently, I am transitioning my personal strategy. I still believe that TSLA is going to do great over the long-haul and I believe that the Q4 ER will surprise to the up side, but at 540 I wish to move to a more conservative position. Consequently, today I've been selling my 300 and 400 strike calls and buying stock. I'm keeping my Jun2021 200-strike calls that I picked up cheaply when TSLA was trading at 190. They have very little time value associated with them. I feel that for my personal investment needs, I'm now in a good position. I can ride out any dips without worry and am well positioned for the long-term. So, if TSLA goes up from here, I am sufficiently invested to be quite happy, and if it takes a dip, I'm happy that I have deleveraged at this attractive price point.
I offer the above example to be both honest with you about what I am doing with my own money and to suggest that if you're a bit older like me (I'm 64), there's nothing wrong with taking some profits. In the last month I paid off both my Tesla loans and paid down the home equity line of credit. My personal finances are now much leaner and I am prepared to ride TSLA to the next high, but also comfortable for the inevitable turbulence that comes along the way.
If you're younger and primarily in stock, leaving your position unchanged might be your best course of action. There's no guarantee in a major breakout such as this that you're going to get a big dip to buy in again. It might happen, but it might not. Tesla looks amazing for the next few years and I'm going to enjoy the ride more now that I have rationalized my investment for my personal needs.
I offer the above example to be both honest with you about what I am doing with my own money and to suggest that if you're a bit older like me (I'm 64), there's nothing wrong with taking some profits. In the last month I paid off both my Tesla loans and paid down the home equity line of credit. My personal finances are now much leaner and I am prepared to ride TSLA to the next high, but also comfortable for the inevitable turbulence that comes along the way.
If you're younger and primarily in stock, leaving your position unchanged might be your best course of action. There's no guarantee in a major breakout such as this that you're going to get a big dip to buy in again. It might happen, but it might not. Tesla looks amazing for the next few years and I'm going to enjoy the ride more now that I have rationalized my investment for my personal needs.
This may have been one of the best Papafox quotes from my perspective. He points out in simple declarative phrases
a fundamental truth about investing (for that matter, about life).
I'm a decade older than is Papafox. Luckily my financial needs were pretty well accommodated when I was his age.
Also, a decade ago I made material changes in my investment strategies. Those had nothing to do with my own finances. They actually amounted a bit more to an awakening regarding the urgent need to find commercially viable ways to cease destroying our planet. When my friend who introduced me to PayPal disappeared, I felt slightly adrift. Then suddenly there was Tesla, newly funded by the very same irritating, brilliant and defiant person, Elon Musk.
There I was, happily contemplating my financially assured future, when Elon Musk helped me listen to the words of J B Straubel, whoever he was. I ended out ignoring all my better instincts and sunk too much of my reserves into TSLA. I have yet to sell a share, have continued buying more and have never used any mechanism other than 100% share purchase. Thus far that has been quite satisfactory in all respects.
Papafox remains, IMHO, one of the most thoughtful investors dealing with TSLA. The only thing he does not deal with is the near-religious fervor many of us have. Since that obviously includes me I feel compelled to offer a few words of caution:
1. If you even begin to think that the investment you're about to make is due to a conviction that it is "right" , be very, very careful.
2. Always remember the basic principles of value investing. When in doubt read Ben Graham.
3. When you begin to believe in quantitative analysis, review the history of LTCM.
4. After you complete steps 1-3 you still want to play with derivatives and/or any other speculative instruments understand that you're gambling, you only hope you see the future better than do other people.
As Papafox implies the older one is the less one tends to gamble.
For the record: I had two Nobel prize winning quants as graduate school seminar leaders. I needed a couple of decades to recover from following their lead. Bizarrely, every generation seems to rediscover the lessons of the past.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
Yes, many thanks for your insight and efforts, Papafox.
Regarding your shift in strategy, you say "I've been selling my 300 and 400 strike calls and buying stock". First of all, what stock are you buying - TSLA? Secondly, not many would consider putting your savings into any stock as "conservative" compared to leveraging fixed income. Just curious.
From my side, I have no house or mortgage, so 91.6% of my net worth is in investments. I'm 57 and could retire today. I follow a simple 28% / 28% / 28% / 15% split over index ETFs for US / Canadian / Global / fixed income. TSLA is my only individual stock, and has grown to 13% of my portfolio, with US still at 22%, so I'm overweight (35%) on US stocks. But I'm pretty happy overall - now 13% / year over 6 years of direct investing.
How about you? Can I ask what % of your net worth is in stocks? in TSLA? I totally understand if you'd rather not publicize this.
Thanks @Speedr117, @jbcarioca, and @jkirkwood001 for the kind words and sharing your thoughts. To answer jkirkwood001's question, my IRA varied hugely in value as I learned what mistakes to avoid again with trading options. I've been over the falls twice, too leveraged in call options when the bottom dropped out because the stock price was out of sync with Tesla's ability to reliably deliver profits and make good on its promises. My IRA varied from a high of about 40% of my financial net worth to a low of less than 10% of my financial net worth. In retrospect, I could have made it to my financial goals investing in TSLA stock alone. My monster asset has been a house in Hawaii which has appreciated substantially since I bought it 15 years ago. Plan B in case I lost everything I invested would have been to live in a small portion of the house (and continue to rent out the other portion) or sell the house. You really have a lot of flexibility when you don't pay rent, you live in a beautiful place, and someone else is making your mortgage payment. Because I had a solid Plan B, I could afford to accept more risk. I think of @TrendTrader007 who is a physician, and he too is in a position to accept more risk than the vast majority of investors. Looks like he's going to be hugely successful on this current breakout, and I'm very happy for him. I say these things because when I mention I'm buying this or that option, it's important to understand my risk tolerance. What may be good for me might not be good for you. I have been very open today with my personal finances and risk acceptance because I realize my statements here may influence your investing decisions. Always calibrate any strategy to serve your own needs.
TSLA reached 547.50 in pre-market trading today, a new ATH and a suggestion that 550 might not be far away. A massive 685K shares traded hands in the opening minute, giving some indication of the ferocious trading today. We saw a Mandatory Morning Dip right after opening that was defeated and then another deep dive at 10am that took TSLA down to 525 before it rebounded. Note the NASDAQ dip that bottomed out at 10am. Although there is correlation between the two events, I suggest that shorts were using the NASDAQ dip to add steroids to the TSLA dip to make it far deeper than it would have been otherwise. A drop of over $20 in TSLA is extreme for a dip of maybe a quarter percent with the NASDAQ. Volume was really high again today at 28.6 million shares. I suspect that sellers were primarily profit-taking longs while buyers were a combination of whales plus shorts who have been covering to satisfy margin calls after Monday's enormous rise.
As early as tomorrow we might see TSLA reach 555, the price point that activates a major incentive payment to Elon Musk. It'll be very interesting to see if Musk-hating shorts will set up a blockage below 555.
Overall, the macros have been fairly supportive of TSLA's climb so far. My hunch is that the hedge funds will sell to exaggerate NASDAQ dips (then cover slowly later in the day). They'll also try to engineer a dip into Friday's close. Although the hedge funds appear to carry the day on Fridays, most of the week belongs to the acquiring whales. I suspect part of the volatility between beginning and end of week is caused by traders working the weekly patterns we've been seeing for several weeks now.
Meanwhile, Ihor Dusaniwsky says shorts have lost over $3 billion during January alone.
Macros were mixed today with the Dow up slightly and the NASDAQ down 0.24%
TSLA shorts were tagged with 59.5% of selling today, suggesting increased efforts to negatively affect today's stock price
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the more recent dip was less dramatic than the one before and that the stock price rise remains on track as we head toward the Q4 earnings report. Expect the report on Jan 22 or Jan 29. The upper bollinger band is doing a good job of chasing the stock price again and showed 527.12 at close.
Conditions:
* Dow up 33 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 23 (0.24%)
* TSLA 537.92, up 13.06 (2.49%)
* TSLA volume 28.6M shares
* Oil 58.07
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 59.5%
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I assume you meant 685k shares, otherwise the opening minute would have dwarfed the day.
I assume you meant 685k shares, otherwise the opening minute would have dwarfed the day.
Changed, thx!
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Papafox- you are an all round amazing fellow and i read you column every single day. you are one of the rare selfless individuals who gives totally objective opinions and i learn a lot from reading your columns- so thank you!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Just note that the market cap requirement is for 6 months average (and last one month too). So, it can only trigger Musk's option payment in Q3 or later.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Some quick math, but it looks like average of the daily close for the last 6 months is about 288. If the SP grows at 0.5% per trading day, it would take almost 90 more trading days for the 6 month average to rise above 555 (when the SP hits 840 or so).
I'm going to save today's daily chart because it's a great example of a bear attack. Notice the deepening dip as pre-market trading approached opening. For the last few weeks, a dip before opening has become a standard tactic of those who wish to push down TSLA. Next came the Mandatory Morning Dip at 9:42am with peak selling of 108K shares in one minute's time. The dip and recovery were both so sharp they redefine our concept of "icicle". After that we saw Tesla rebound and nearly reach the green. Most of the rest of the day was efforts to push TSLA below 530. About 2:30pm, the NASDAQ took a dip of about half a percent but TSLA lost another $10 as the hedge funds executed a dip on steroids into close with the NASDAQ dip being used as the explanation.
In after hours trading you can see recovery from the close as some traders recognized the dip into close was a fabrication. To my knowledge, no negative news of substance came out this afternoon. Also, if big investors were selling, they would be selling throughout the day and wouldn't ever do the 108K selling in one minute we saw at 9:42am or the 84K selling in one minute at 3:46pm.
The rise of TSLA in after hours trading to 520 suggests possible support at that level. We'll just have to see how hard the hedge funds hit us with an MMD on Thursday morning.
Looking at reasons for TSLA continuing to trade well, I see that Pier 80 at San Francisco is filled with Teslas as we await the next Roro. Meanwhile, wait times in the United States for all Teslas including Models S and X have grown by weeks recently and there are no price reductions like last Q1. Looks like Model 3s will easily sell out for Q1 deliveries in China. The only bad news regarding China is a likely slowdown or pause for the Chinese new year. All in all, Q1 is shaping up to be a decent quarter, especially if we see a decent amount of FCA credits and autopilot "features complete" revenue recognition in Q1. Overall, Q1 is looking amazingly good considering the seasonality. Although some big institutions are likely front-running S&P500 inclusion, many are not, and we can expect a nice bump upwards when the market realizes that Tesla will qualify.
As @EVNow and others have mentioned, Elon's qualification for his bonus options requires a 6 month average above the trigger price point, so there's no need for shorts to blockade 555. Nonetheless, it might be done symbolically all the same. I'm still curious to see.
You can see why shorting TSLA is so painful these days because the green line of the chart above depicts short interest (shares shorter x price). Whereas TSLA had been maintaining around 10B of short interest, it has ballooned above 14B with a far smaller number of shorts as the stock price has climbed.
Last week, TSLA shorts actually increased their shares shorted, according to Dusaniwsky's statement below, and I suspect we're seeing net shorting this week. Thus, although I thought we were enjoying tailwinds from net covering, the reverse may in fact be true.
Volumebot.com shows percent of selling by shorts dipped a little today to 57.5%. I see lots of apparent manipulations today, though. One explanation could simply be that on big manipulation days the shorts take their business to non-FINRA exchanges. The other is that with net shorting taking place, it takes less manipulations to influence the stock price because there's no covering associated with the churning of short shares. Instead, there's just the selling.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see we're now in the third challenge to this rally. Neither of the other two has been much more than $30 deep, so let's see what this dip holds. TSLA now has about $17 of headroom with the upper bollinger band.
If I saw bad news and a more constant downward pressure on TSLA today, I'd be concerned, but the news is lacking and the dips look very much short-seller originated. My best guess is that this dip too shall pass.
Conditions:
* Dow up 91(0.31%)
* NASDAQ up 7 (0.08%)
* TSLA 518.50, (3.61%)
* TSLA volume 16.9M shares
* Oil 58.21
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 57.5%
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Welcome to day two of the bear attack. As you recall, on day one we saw a massive selling effort to create a mandatory morning dip and then in the afternoon, without any apparent news, hedge funds pushed hard to engineer a massive dip into close. TSLA rose somewhat in after-hours trading as traders suspected something was amiss.
Day two arrived with Morgan-Stanley's Adam Jonas raising his price target but downgrading TSLA to "underweight", which is another way of saying "sell". Jonas argued that the stock has risen so much already it has no room left to climb. Jonas, in a previous note not long ago, acknowledged that TSLA might hit 500 but would descend because that price was unsustainable. Today he introduced a note to encourage investors to make his original prediction come true. Was Jonas's credibility powerful enough to send TSLA plummeting to below 495 in pre-market trading, however? I suspect that it wasn't and we saw the typical "dip on steroids" as shorting enabled a minor dip to become a major dip, with the investors none the wiser for what was really going on. In the past month, manipulators have really taken a shining to push-downs into market open, and today was no exception.
If you believe that the timing of Adam Jonas's negative note was purely coincidence, then you truly haven't been paying attention to this stock's trading over the past 3 years.
Fortunately, Jonas wasn't the only analyst announcing price targets today. Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois raised his price target from 400 to 600 today, saying "cashing in based on current valuation would be a mistake, given the company is likely to turn profitable this year." Houchois joins Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusche in the "$600 and above club". Rusche listed 612 as his target. These $600 and above price targets are important to suggest to investors that $500 is not too high a price for buying into TSLA. Hopefully, many more will come after the Q4 ER and 2020 guidance. The $600 and above analysts are today's "anti-Jonas" forces because they suggest there's at least a 20% upside out there in the foreseeable future.
The advantage to us longs of such a deep dip that gets uncoiled as the day goes on is that it reinforces the belief that TSLA has better days ahead and that selling during these engineered dips is not in your financial best interest. I was impressed with TSLA's ability to bounce back and close more than $17 above today's lows.
The macros were well up today, with the NASDAQ closing up 1.06%
TSLA shorts were tagged with 50.5% of selling today. More so than any other day this year, I feel that today reinforced my idea that on really big manipulation days, those doing the shorting will move away from FINRA exchanges and do a bigger portion of their shorting at locations where the numbers won't draw attention. So... despite the lower percent of selling by shorts number, I maintain that manipulations were high today.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that today's dip was substantial but by market close it was a $5 nothingburger. Usually you would expect the stock price to recover after a day like this because the growth in the stock price from beginning to end of day was substantial. Tomorrow is Friday, however, and we know the hedge funds put forth their strongest efforts on option-close Fridays. This particular Friday has lots of options at stake and so they will be trying. I suspect the 7K calls at 500-strike will be their primary focus, so don't be surprised to see an effort to close below that amount. It's possible they could lose control of the stock price, too, something not uncommon but something we usually don't see on Fridays. Watch for a pushdown during the final hour or two but also a possible push-up in the final twenty minutes as traders position themselves for the usual Monday Morning Buyers Exuberance (which would have to take place on Tuesday since Monday is a holiday). If TSLA is trading below 500 going into tomorrow's close I may be forced to do some buying again. The weekly patterns have been too strong to ignore lately.
Conditions:
* Dow up 267 (0.92%)
* NASDAQ up 98 (1.06%)
* TSLA 513.49, down 5.01 (0.97%)
* TSLA volume 21.7M shares
* Oil 58.53
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 50.5%
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Welcome to day three of the bear attack. As we last left off, TSLA recovered substantially from a Thursday pre-market pushdown, and such recoveries generally lead to a green day, which would have been Friday. Alas, the positive trading in pre-market was disrupted by media stories about a petition alleging sudden acceleration of Tesla vehicles being investigated by the NHTSA, which accounts for the big dip prior to 8am. Almost all sudden acceleration claims turn out to be unwarranted, and so far past claims have revealed themselves to be owner-operator caused, and I am confident this claim is nothing more than an attempt to disrupt the stock price on an options-expiration Friday, as @Fact Checking pointed out here in the main investor's thread. We saw the typical price dips likely accelerated by short-selling in pre-market that brought TSLA down below 503 before recovery.
At market open, the market concluded this story was a big nothingburger and TSLA rose into the green shortly after opening. An hour of whack-the-mole ensued in an attempt to avoid any rally on an options expiration Friday. The sale of nearly 100K shares in a two minute period around 11am finally brought TSLA out of whack-the-mole territory and began a dip.
Here I think the hedge funds made a mistake by trying to get too greedy and going for a dip aiming at 500 too early in the day. That dip was defeated shortly after 1pm and the stock had nowhere to go but up from there. Right on schedule, long traders appeared 20 minutes prior to close and started bidding the stock price up to a close about $7 above the low. To add icing to the cake, TSLA gained an additional $2 in after-hours trading. Such an after-hours gains usually translates into increased upward pressure upon open on the next business day. Looking forward to Tuesday morning's buyer exuberance event!
The NASDAQ closed up 0.34% on Friday. There was low correlation between NASDAQ trading and TSLA trading, with the possible exception of the NASDAQ's 11:20am dip.
Shorts were tagged with 55% of TSLA selling on Friday
Looking at the tech chart, the current dip appears deep than the previous two during this rally, but if you look at closing prices then the dip is not far out of line with the first dip. The upper bollinger band has drifted up above 545, where it is starting to position itself well for the 4Q ER, scheduled for Jan 29. That's a mere 7 trading days away.
Where does the stock price go from here? I'd like to see a slow drift-up to a price where it will still have some headroom from previous highs before the ER. If the stock price exceeds 550 going into the ER then we have more of a chance of a sell the news event. OTOH, the news from the ER could possibly be strong enough to simply overpower any urge to take profits immediately afterwards. Over the weekend, we've seen a tweet about Model Y deliveries allegedly imminent and being announced at the ER, @Fact Checking has pointed out the extent of hundreds of millions made by Tesla on their hedging bet related to convertible bonds sold (if the stock price holds or increases), and @The Accountant has detailed how Tesla might see substantial contributions to profits should Tesla take advantage of deferred taxes once the company is more likely than not to have reached sustained profitability. All of these matters could be ignored in the 4Q ER, so don't bet the farm. OTOH, there's the potential for some significant positive surprises as the ER rolls around, so I wouldn't want to be empty-handed on my TSLA holdings either. Every one of these windfalls should materialize to one extent or the other during 2020, though, along with the FCA payments. I personally think that the run-up in stock price so far is based upon recognition that big investors that Tesla has reached a point of sustained profitability which will of course lead to S&P 500 inclusion, and I'm hopeful the ER and guidance will support the profitability expectation. Once again, I think the safe bet is long-term because TSLA looks on track to have a great 2020 and 2021 and there's always room for surprises in the short term.
For the week, TSLA closed at 510.50, up 32.35 from last week's 478.15. Add in a 141.26 gain from the past 5 weeks and we're up 173.61 over the past 6 weeks. That's better than fair to middling in my book! Wednesday through Friday were tough days for TSLA, but Monday and Tuesday of this week were epic. Enjoy your weekend! Fingers crossed that Tuesday Morning's Buyer Exuberance is a strong one.
Conditions:
* Dow up 50 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ up 32 (0.34%)
* TSLA 510.50, down 2.99 (0.58%)
* TSLA volume 13.6M shares
* Oil 58.58
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 55%
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To nobody's great surprise, today was a strong up day for TSLA. Last week's three-day bear attack only managed its final day on Friday because of FUD related to a short-seller originated unintentional acceleration claim petition. Fortunately, Tesla over the weekend stabbed that vampire through the heart with a silver stake via this blog post and the issue was no more. The Third Row Tesla Podcast- Part 1, came out Monday night, showed the very human side of a relaxed Elon, and left a positive impression, then New Street Research analyst Pierre Farragu came out with this $800 price target for TSLA, and the day was poised to become a big one.
How to explain the ups and downs of the day? Usually there's a slight correction to the morning high, and so we saw a very slight dip from the 10:15am-ish morning high. My guess is that large buyers were busy accumulating today, but they were mostly holding their buying below 543 to avoid bidding the price up too high. Tomorrow looks like it will be another positive day, and so I think we saw traders jumping aboard in the late afternoon for tomorrow's rise. In after-hours trading TSLA exceeded 550 as shorts likely were covering to satisfy margin calls and all sorts of similar unpleasantness.
Looking at volume of 17.3M shares, I'm thinking this volume is somewhat low for a day in which the stock climbs more than $36. I attribute the stock price rise and the constrained volume to a lack of sellers.
This video on CNBC with former Ford CEO Mark Fields shows just how significantly Tesla has convinced many in the automotive field that EVs are the future.
The NASDAQ closed down 0.19% and showed no apparent effect upon TSLA. A slight decline of the NASDAQ is a good environment for a large rise of TSLA because TSLA becomes one of the hottest stocks of the day and draws the attention of traders.
TSLA shorts were tagged with a mere 41% of selling today. They correctly identified the stock movement today as a steam-roller and apparently they had enough sense not to get in the way.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see TSLA right back on target for continuing its climb. The upper bollinger band 556.77 day, still leaving some headroom for additional climb tomorrow. Take a look at the volume indications at the bottom of the chart. We've seen some of the highest trading volume in TSLA over the past two weeks that we've ever seen. I see the profit-taking selling to big whale buyers as a very positive thing as a larger and larger portion of TSLA falls into the hands of buyers who paid dearly for it and plan to hold for years.
Tomorrow should be a positive day, certainly in the morning because of the buying pressure shown in after-hours trading today. Don't be surprised to see a more subdued climb or even a fade in the afternoon. This is normal.
Conditions:
* Dow down 152 (0.52%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.19%)
* TSLA 547.20, up 36.70 (7.19%)
* TSLA volume 17.3M shares
* Oil 58.34
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 41%
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More importantly, that big selloff in the indexes was completely ignored by TSLA.
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