TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.

Tags:
  1. Cape Coddess

    Cape Coddess Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2019
    Messages:
    85
    Location:
    Cape Cod
    Link please? Too many hits when searching for "investors".
     
    • Like x 1
  2. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope Not a cat

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    7,041
    Location:
    Boozy Brussels
    • Like x 6
    • Helpful x 5
  3. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    #3143 Papafox, Jul 15, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2020
    jul15chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above
    jul15qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    TSLA reached 1595 in pre-market trading before the volatility of the macros and the cunning of the usual suspects took its toll. Thus, my expectations of reaching 1600 today were dashed.

    So, what happened? We saw NASDAQ decline from about 7:15am until about 8:15am, and the hedge funds saw this as an opportunity to do a dip on steroids and they started selling. They managed an icicle-shaped Mandatory Morning Dip (MMD) even though the NASDAQ was well up at that time. The purpose of an MMD is to signal traders that there's no money to be made here today and to go elsewhere. They did. Market watchers noticed that hot stocks such as Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla were down while cruise line and airline stocks were way up. This sector redistribution took place because of the excellent news yesterday about Moderna's vaccine candidate producing substantial neutralizing antibodies in all subjects. Looking at that event, it looks like Pfiser's CEO was front-running Moderna's announcement earlier this week. Now we see that the collaborative Oxford-AstraZenca vaccine is producing excellent results as well. We'll see actual numbers on the Oxford-AstraZenca vaccine test on Monday, and I expect them to be good. So, there's reason to believe that a vaccine will be approved by the FDA this year and with companies already ramping up production of their vaccines, massive distribution could soon follow FDA approval.

    Anyway, people were moving money from the safe stocks such as Tesla, Amazon, and Nvidia to risky stocks that absolutely require a vaccine before they properly recover. Carnival closed up 16% and U.S. airlines closed up 9.5-16.5%. This transfer of funds and transfer of traders from TSLA to riskier stocks today gave TSLA a headwind to fly against. It closing up nearly 2% was impressive, given the environment in which it was operating.

    The loss of traders today was helpful to us long-term investors. How? Their departure gave us a better idea of how much trading they had been doing. Compare today's volume to yesterday's or the day before yesterday's and you get some idea of how much these traders typically do on a daily basis.

    When comparing the TSLA chart to the QQQ chart, keep in mind that the moves on a percentage basis were far smaller in QQQ than the big swings in TSLA today.

    jul15after.png

    In late after-hours trading, TSLA lost more than it gained during market hours trading. What happened is that Elon's Twitter account got hacked and investors reacted to the inappropriate Tweets. It turns out that Twitter had a major security breach and Elon's account was just one of many affected. Bottom line: what happened after hours is a nothing-burger.


    jul15tech.JPG
    Looking at the tech chart, TSLA now enjoys $92 of headroom between closing price and the upper bollinger band. Notice what the usual suspects are trying to do here. Trading of TSLA for the past 4 sessions is supporting another plateau in the vicinity of 1500. Look at the full chart and you will see this summer's trading has really been about plateaus giving way to breakouts giving way to another plateau. Fortunately, the stalemate will be broken next week when the Q2 Earnings Report comes out.

    On a personal note, I couldn't help feeling a little excitement for next week and I purchased a 600-strike Jan2022 call shortly after open today.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 228 (0.85%)
    * NASDAQ up 62 (0.59%)
    * TSLA 1546.01, up 29.21 (1.93%)
    * TSLA volume 16.4M shares
    * Oil 41.13
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 55%
     
    • Informative x 21
    • Helpful x 5
    • Like x 4
  4. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    jul16chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above
    jul16qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    Thursday's trading was a typical down day with TSLA mostly following the QQQ chart, but at exaggerated multiplier. There were some distinct differences between the two charts, however. Shortly after open, TSLA tried to climb, but the pull of the down macros were just too much for it. TSLA managed to do less of a plunge around 11am, compared to QQQ, and then both charts showed a steady rise through 1pm. Unfortunately, it was time to cap TSLA and keep it close to 1500, and so as QQQ continued to rise until nearly 3pm, TSLA was caught in the manipulator's capping tractor beam.

    At close, TSLA closed at 1500 and change, exactly where the hedge funds and likely some of the market makers want to see it stay for a while. What a coincidence!

    Volume was light today (14.3M shares) as traders mostly stayed away from TSLA and longs weren't particularly inspired to sell. After all, the 2Q ER is less than a week away and prospects look very positive. Both charts fell shortly after close as Netflix reported a miss, but TSLA's fall was not as steep as QQQ's.

    In news:
    FUD included this CNBC hit piece claiming Tesla's sales fell by half in California in Q2. In reality, it doesn't matter where Tesla sold its vehicles last quarter, all that matters is that it sold a lot of them and it's making money on these sales.

    Fortunately, all of this short term news is just noise compared to the bigger picture of Tesla taking a commanding lead in the future of automobile sales, which just so happens to be EVs. Here are some stories to reinforce that idea:
    * Credit Suisse upgraded TSLA from 700 to 1400 today. Back in April when the bank changed its view on TSLA from underperform to hold, shares increased 14% in value in the next day's trading. Let's hope for a bump on Friday.
    * This electrek article references a Science magazine video tour of Gigafactory 1 and computes that the company is producing at a rate of 80GWh/yr, which is a big increase from recent estimates of production
    * Troy has come out with his first 3Q estimate of deliveries and says it should be around 142,000, which is more than a 50% increase over Q2's. Troy's estimates generally grow as the quarter progresses. Moreover, yearly deliveries are expected to beat Elon's 500K original estimate for 2020.

    One article I just read suggests that the Oxford vaccine has been in widespread late-stage testing and could be available as early as September. I'm not holding my breath for that date in the U.S., but the U.S. government has purchased 300 million doses of the vaccine and paid enough so that we're near the front of the line. I suspect we will see a bump in macros early next week when news comes out.


    jul16tech.JPG
    Looking at the tech chart, the upper bollinger band is now 173 above the stock price. Tick, tick tick. With the Oxford vaccine news next week and the Tesla ER on Wednesday, I believe we will see a nice rise of TSLA next week. My bets are typically longer-term, however, because Q3 should be a blockbuster and I'd rather have a blockbuster included in my bet than rely on the fickleness of a week's trading action.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 135 (0.50%)
    * NASDAQ down 77 (0.73%)
    * TSLA 1500.64, down 45.37 (2.93%)
    * TSLA volume 14.3M shares
    * Oil 40.72
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 55%
     
    • x 17
    • x 8
    • x 4
    • x 1
    • x 1
  5. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
    Messages:
    4,679
    Just a technical note: The superficial video quoted by Electrek is NOT from Science magazine. Science is a journal-like publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
    AAAS Home | American Association for the Advancement of Science
    I am a loyal member. The AAAS publication Science does not publish transparently superficial stuff like this. Not everything is 100% correct, after all it is science so subject to evolving understanding. I apologize if I sound a bit defensive.

    The Science Channel, a production of The Discovery Channel, is the Super Factories producer. They are always slick but always gloss over details, too. After all they are a commercial entertainment firm. That said, I admit I watch their shows, HGTV mostly.

    Sorry for the digression.
     
    • Informative x 6
    • Like x 4
    • Helpful x 2
  6. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    Your concerns about confusing Science Magazine with the Science Channel are well placed. Thanks for the clarification. Panasonic just communicated that the numbers quoted in the Electrek article are incorrect.
    A new Electrek Article about the correction.
     
    • Informative x 9
    • Like x 2
  7. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    #3147 Papafox, Jul 19, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
    jul17chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above

    jul17qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    I'm not going to spend a lot of time talking about Friday's trading because most of us already know what happened. Option sellers really wanted TSLA to close at 1500. With lower volume as the week progressed and with a lack of strong Tesla news, the usual suspects were able to get within 84 cents of hitting their target for the second day in a row. Volume was particularly low on Friday, only 9.3 million shares, which made manipulations easier. Comparing the two charts above, you can see that TSLA showed significantly more strength in pre-market trading and throughout most of the day. It was only after 3pm when the screws got turned and TSLA began its slow trajectory towards 1500. Yawn.

    Everything changes in the coming week, however. I'm told the news about the Oxford vaccine will be out before market open on Monday, so we're likely to see a big pre-market jump in the macros. This is not necessarily a good thing because what you want to avoid is TSLA running too high too quickly in the morning and becoming vulnerable for a profitable push downward by the manipulators as the day continues, just as what happened last Monday. OTOH, the upper bollinger band was just a bit above 1500 last Monday and now it's about 150 higher as this Monday approaches. That could make a difference.

    Looking toward the Earnings Report on Wednesday afternoon, I remain bullish. No doubt a loss of any amount would lead to a knee-jerk selling frenzy, but what are the chances? Elon Tweeted first that Tesla was borderline break-even, then he congratulated the employees for a job well done when the Q2 Production and Delivery numbers came in, and then he made a big point of Tesla's store selling TSLA short shorts. He'd look pretty ridiculous if TSLA missed making a profit in Q2. Most investors and analysts now assume a small profit, but the results will remove doubt about a possible loss and should lead to some price appreciation. Estimates of how many shares need to be picked up if TSLA enters the S&P500 are all over the board, but there's a chance of substantial appreciation of TSLA and so the market will take that into account. After the Q2 ER, there will be battery day Sept 22, Q3 P&D report first few days of Oct. and then Q3 ER in late October. All these events should be catalysts, so I have picked up leaps that cover them all. The distance from July 22 to Sept 22 is two months long, which gives an opportunity for a dip if there's no S&P500 inclusion news during that time.

    @The Accountant has posted his computations of a $69 million GAAP profit here, and @FrankSG 's more optimistic computation of over $300 million GAAP profit is the post right above The Accountant's. Also, if you haven't seen it yet, be sure to check out @FrankSG 's S&P500 blog post for the most Herculean effort ever on diving into such an important Tesla topic.

    Any time appreciation of TSLA is based upon speculation in call options which drives delta-hedging and leads to rapid climbs, I suspect the possibility of an overshoot in the stock price. I'm not shy to take some profits (but still leave most my funds in TSLA shares or leaps) when such an event occurs and we might see additional overshoots in the coming few months. Don't be in too quick on the draw to decide a day's movement is an overshoot, however. Looking at July's trading on the tech chart below, you can see multiple days in which the strong climb rose above the upper bollinger band, only to see more climbing follow. These type of climbs are primarily readjustments of the share price than could have long-term staying power. The two outliers in rapid climbs on the chart below were Feb 4, when TSLA gapped way up and left the upper bb far behind (before a manipulation pulled it down) and July 13. In both cases the gap up and the initial climb were so far above the upper bb to be a concern. If those climbs had been the result of good news, then the climb could be sustained, but if it is the result of high call option buying followed by delta-hedging, I would be wary.

    Bottom line: there's room for very substantial appreciation ahead due to good news and anticipation of S&P500 inclusion, but when the climb gets too far ahead of the upper bollinger band and is based on call option buying rather than news, be careful.

    jul17tech2.png
    Looking at the tech chart, the stock price is about 173 below the upper bollinger band, which is encouraging for this week's trading. You can see an attempt at starting a new plateau at 1500, but there's too much news and speculation of news this week for the stock to calmly remain in that plateau.


    jul17short.png
    TSLA shorts were tagged with 56% of TSLA selling on Friday, keeping the longterm trend very stable. Someone is using high-speed trading to make money on this volatile stock at the moment, and short-selling is just one component of the high-speed trading.

    For the week, TSLA closed at 1500.84, down 43.81 from last Friday's 1544.65. After TSLA has risen so much already, a week of relative consolidation like this prior to the Q2 ER is likely a good thing. We continue to see sizable analyst upgrades of the stock, and the market is getting more comfortable with this new valuation level for TSLA. Hoping you had a great weekend!

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 63 (0.23%)
    * NASDAQ up 29 (0.28%)
    * TSLA 1500.84, up 0.20 (0.01%)
    * TSLA volume 9.3M shares
    * Oil 40.59
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 56%
     
    • Informative x 23
    • Helpful x 10
    • Like x 8
    • Love x 4
  8. farzyness

    farzyness Food lover. Entrepreneur. Did I say food lover?

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2013
    Messages:
    659
    Location:
    Earth
    Thanks Papa - @FrankSG blog post was an amazing read. My gut's been telling me TSLA $3k-$4k is entirely possible in the short term.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  9. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    jul20chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above
    jul20qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    Monster Monday II, with a new ATH close, anyone? Today the planets aligned just right and Monster Monday rose from the murk of Wall Street and gobbled up bears and shorts like they were appetizers served on a platter by waitresses wearing Tesla short shorts. It was a thing of beauty, actually.

    As you recall, my concern over the weekend was that the good news about the Oxford vaccine might cause the market and TSLA to jump higher in pre-market trading and open at a substantially stratospheric level that would then invite the usual suspects to profitably chip away at TSLA, much in the fashion of last week's aborted Monster Monday. Instead, the Oxford vaccine suggested it does not have a clear advantage over the other vaccines in the top tier, and so Oxford's partner in the vaccine, AstraZeneca (AZN) actually lost 3.5% today. Meanwhile, Moderna, which is a very serious contender in the vaccine race, lost over 12% today as the competition showed that it is in the running and Moderna received a downgrade from JPMorgan. Nonetheless, as the day wore on the market warmed to reports of these various vaccine studies, and up the macros went. Although the Dow closed barely in the green, the NASDAQ was a monster itself, closing up more than 2.5% for the day. Much of the fuel behind the NASDAQ's strength was a price target issued by Goldman and Jefferies for Amazon to reach 3800. White house coronavirus briefings start tomorrow and you can expect an emphasis on good news in Coronavirus vaccines and therapeutics.

    Anyway, back to the TSLA story. So as the NASDAQ and QQQ rose throughout the day, the dingbats who had held TSLA at 1500 for Thursday and Friday's closes thought it would be a good idea to keep the cap in place today, too. Unfortunately for them, the NASDAQ kept rising and the pressure kept building. Finally, around 12:18pm, the pressure became too great and TSLA rose above the 1500 and change cap zone. This rise quickly fueled other buying because lots of parties wanted into the stock before Wednesday's close, FOMO flowed in the veins of investors, and TSLA became a climbing monster that could not be stopped. There was no way the market makers and hedge funds were going to put the Jeanie back into the bottle this close to ER day, so they resorted to Plan B: Delta-hedging their option sales in earnest. This delta-hedging added rocket fuel to the fire with the necessary buying and the relentless climb continued into after-hours trading, like it so often does on a monster climb.

    jul20short.png
    TSLA shorts were tagged with only 40% of TSLA selling today, the first real drop since early June


    jul20tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart, today's massive climb stayed within the confines of the bollinger bands. In fact there's another hundred points of headroom beneath the upper bb if it's needed tomorrow and Wednesday. Notice the volume of 17 million shares is pretty light for a $140+ climb. Thus, we saw the market makers and hedge funds delta-hedging like crazy today, and anyone who wanted into the stock had to compete in price with them.

    Yes indeed, today was a thing of beauty and the week is just warming up.
    #cantwaittilwednesday

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 9 (0.03%)
    * NASDAQ up 264 (2.51%)
    * TSLA 1643.00, up 142.16 (9.47%)
    * TSLA volume 17.1M shares
    * Oil 40.87
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 40%
     
    • x 25
    • x 10
    • x 9
    • x 2
    • x 1
  10. Off Shore

    Off Shore Off Topic Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2015
    Messages:
    899
    Location:
    Isla de Ometepe, Nicaragua
    I see what you did there.
     
    • Funny x 5
    • Helpful x 1
  11. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    #3151 Papafox, Jul 21, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
    jul21chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above
    jul21qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    TSLA pre-market trading began on a high note with retail investors bidding TSLA up to nearly 1700 before the stock descended into the red before market open, likely with some help from the usual suspects. Earlier in the day, JMP analyst Joseph Osha said that much of the good news is already priced into TSLA and so he downgraded the stock from outperform to market perform. That note may have added some drag to TSLA's performance today. As @Curt Renz pointed out, Osha's appearance on CNBC immediately preceded the 1pm dip. No doubt some weak longs decided to sell after watching and no doubt manipulative short-selling was used to add steroids to that dip. By 2:30pm most of the dip had been reclaimed but a late afternoon dip of the NASDAQ pulled TSLA lower for the day.

    Overall, we had pretty much the opposite setup as yesterday when TSLA started low and then burst higher to catch and then pass the macros. On Tuesday, TSLA started high in pre-market, nearly 1700, and then was pushed lower in a profitable pushdown by the option sellers, only to be assisted by a NASDAQ that lost ground for much of the day. The results were not surprising.

    jul21maxpain.png
    Looking at the maximum-pain.com option chart above for July24 expirations (scale adjusted to compensate for a sugarload of 100 puts gorking the chart), you can see that large quantities of cheaper calls for strikes 2000 and above are now in place. No doubt the hedge funds and market makers will do everything possible to keep TSLA below 2000 if the 2Q ER is positive (GAAP profit). A price just below 1600 would be a great place for the stock to go from the standpoint of the market makers and hedge funds, which is likely part of the reason why we're sitting there right now.

    On the one hand, the option sellers have a strong incentive for minimizing the climb after the ER, if the results are positive. On the other hand, if the results are surprisingly good, the climb would likely get away from their ability to control. Either is possible.

    Personally, I'm not so much betting on this ER as I am using my shares and leaps as placeholders for S&P500 inclusion, battery day, plus Q3 and Q4 results. I want to participate in these second half of year events, and there's too much possible upside if Wednesday's numbers are good. It's just not a time to be on the sidelines with all the other positive events coming. If by chance there's a miss and a dip, I'll let her ride until these other events lift the stock price back above where we find new All Time Highs.

    jul21short.png
    TSLA shorts were tagged with 39% of TSLA selling today, continuing the lower level of selling that began yesterday. One explanation is that the extra 20% of selling tagged to shorts is a by-product of hefty high-speed trading routines that incorporate shorting and the group running those routines have turned them off during the volatility of the ER announcement.

    One of the biggest macro threats in the near term is the Coronavirus. The POTUS gave his COVID 19 update today, gave the reasonable assessment that the virus gets worse before it gets better. He also promoted the use of masks. He spoke of Stimulus Package 4 coming, with both parties working to make it happen, so we some positive news there, as well.

    Lets take a look at the three most in-the-news states that were showing big growth around July 4 and see how their Covid 19 numbers are coming along. Charts are from Worldometers.

    jul21canew.png
    California continues the uptrend, but you can see the rate of climb is decreasing.


    jun21texasnew.png
    Texas has plateaued and may be ready to start along the downhill run


    jun21flornew.png
    Florida has peaked on the 7 day cumulative average line (blue). Let's hope that downturn continues. In all three states, efforts have been taken to reduce the numbers and we're seeing progress since the July 4 weekend.



    jul21tech.png
    Looking at the tech chart, the bollinger bands continue to climb even with today's negative results.

    All in all, what matters is what happens after the ER message comes out Wednesday afternoon and how the market is or isn't manipulated on Thursday to respond to that after-hours movement. Keep in mind that the ER will be an opportunity for Elon to give flavor to the rest of the year. Reconfirming a 500,000 vehicles and above estimate would be one of the big moves that could influence the stock price during the conference call.
    #cantwaittilwednesday


    Conditions:
    * Dow up 160 (0.80%)
    * NASDAQ down 87 (0.81%)
    * TSLA 1568.36, down 74.64 (4.54%)
    * TSLA volume 16.0M shares
    * Oil 41.96
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 39%
     
    • Informative x 18
    • Helpful x 5
    • Like x 3
    • Love x 1
  12. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    #3152 Papafox, Jul 22, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2020
    jul22chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above
    jul22qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    Congratulations, longs, Tesla delivered the goods in Q2!
    * GAAP Net Income: $104 million
    * Non-GAAP Net Income: $451 million
    * 4 sequential quarters of GAAP profit (two in the middle of a pandemic!) setting Tesla up for Standard and Poors 500 inclusion
    * Automotive Gross margin: 25.4% despite severe reduction in Fremont output
    * Tesla aims to deliver over 500,000 vehicles in 2020

    As with last quarter, our retail spreadsheet jockeys did a better job of predicting profits than did the Wall Street analysts. @The Accountant did particularly well (although some values were higher and some lower than originally expected). See his post here.

    The TSLAQ dingdongs point out that regulatory credits exceeded net GAAP income this quarter, but with Tesla being the only profitable auto manufacturer on the planet this quarter, I'd say that's a moot point. In fact, regulatory credit income from Europe should be going up as the year progresses, so this is no one-shot wonder. One balancing point is that Q2 GAAP profit saw a reduction of over $100 million because of Elon's equity awards.

    There are plenty of sources for learning the particulars of the Q2 ER results, but I want to focus on the implications for stock price appreciation. First, keep in mind that investors bought a sugarload of 2000-strike and above call options that expire on Friday. Naturally, the usual suspects will want to keep that from happening, and so you can expect an attempt to keep a lid on TSLA appreciation this week. It may not succeed. The good news is that today's results pretty much assure that S&P500 inclusion is coming and when you add that factor to battery day and Q3 and Q4 results, the remainder of 2020 should be a very good one for TSLA longs.

    Looking at market trading today, you can see an effort put forward to keep TSLA below 1600. Moving into after-hours trading, the effort apparently was to keep TSLA below 1700. TSLA ran above 1700 for a quick spurt but was hammered down hard before bouncing back.

    Going into Thursday's trading, I think the market makers and hedge funds will do their best to find the price at which TSLA can be controlled. Maybe it will be above 1700, maybe it won't, but today's results certainly justify a nice price increase for TSLA. Various patterns should be looked for. If TSLA runs high quickly in pre-market and morning trading but can be capped, don't be surprised to see some downward pressure in the afternoon. OTOH, if macros rise on Thursday and manipulators can hold TSLA down in the morning, don't be surprised to see the kind of breakout that we saw on Monster Monday this week as TSLA started climbing in early afternoon and became unstoppable. I do expect to see attempts at manipulations on Thursday and Friday, but if buying heats up with too much volume, it won't be able to be held back.

    Overall, I'm super bullish for 2020 after these results. There's less chance of a dip if TSLA rises at a slower rate than if there's an explosive rally right after the ER. I think word that S&P500 inclusion has been approved will give the stock a nice boost. Until then, this stock is a keeper. HODL continues to serve us well.

    Conditions:
    * Dow up 165 (0.62%)
    * NASDAQ up 26 (0.24%)
    * TSLA 1592.33, up 23.97 (1.53%)
    * TSLA volume 11.4M shares
    * Oil 41.92
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 39%
     
    • Like x 25
    • Informative x 14
    • Love x 10
    • Helpful x 2
  13. LisaW

    LisaW Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2019
    Messages:
    16
    Location:
    92115
    Thanks Papa Fox. I always appreciate your posts.
     
    • Like x 8
  14. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    #3154 Papafox, Jul 24, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2020
    jul23chart.JPG
    TSLA chart above
    jul23qqq.JPG
    QQQ chart above

    If you think that today's TSLA performance indicates that Q2's profitable ER was already baked into the stock price yesterday, think again. Much was, to be sure, but looking at Wednesday's after-hours trading and Thursday's pre-market plus opening trading, you will see that in both accounts TSLA ran up to the high 1600s. So, what happened today?

    Until a few minutes after opening on Thursday, TSLA was pretty much doing what you'd expect, but with a bit too much restraint (owing to a downforce from you-know-who).. Nonetheless, even with some mischief from the option sellers, TSLA opened noticeably higher than it closed yesterday. Look how heavy the selling was just a few minutes after open. TSLA took a dip, recovered, and then started a slow march to the red. I believe that some option sellers sold like crazy shortly after opening to create that dip. What the dip did was get investors who were watching the stock with some interest in taking some profits once the climbing was over to start the selling for that purpose immediately. Looking at the volume of 24 million shares, there was plenty of selling today as well as plenty of buying. Nonetheless, as noon approached , TSLA had settled around 1600 and it looked like a pin for the rest of the day.

    Alas, the NASDAQ did a spectacular swan dive this afternoon, with the dip starting around noon. TSLA followed the NASDAQ down as no doubt short-selling during the dips added steroids. As both TSLA and QQQ neared the 2:00pm low, TSLA was down 7% and QQQ down 3.1%. This is a strange arrangement since all morning long TSLA was stronger than QQQ. Investors who weren't primed to sell once TSLA peaked did some of the selling today anyway as they wondered how deep a dip this was going to be.

    The NASDAQ closed down 2.29% today and TSLA was down 5%. Most tech stocks were down about 3.5%, so TSLA wasn't down all that much compared to them, right? The thing is that TSLA opened up 5.2% today and it closed down more than 10% from that high. We have to hand the manipulators credit for engineering a selloff and then using the macro dip to max advantage.TSLA closed at 1513 today and Max pain for Friday is 1495. Coincidence? I think not. Notice, too, how QQQ recovered slightly in after-hours trading but TSLA was held steady as a rock? Coincidence? I think not.

    Here's another factor to consider. As TSLA's price sank, so did the values assigned to near-term call options. Market makers and hedge funds which did some delta-hedging earlier this week could start selling TSLA shares because of the lower risks. That selling further decreased the value of the short-term call options (by decreasing the stock price), which was a very strong feedback loop. As TSLA dropped it also put some pressure on the NASDAQ to drop, which was causing TSLA to drop. Much of the effect was psychological rather than numerical because investors were watching yesterday's darling falling quickly.. Again, we have these feedback loops that crank up when the trading is negative.

    Remember what I said in Wednesday's post about patterns? A setup with TSLA beginning the day high and then falling with declining macros is a setup for maximum manipulation and price loss. Quite simply, shorting TSLA when it is high in the morning is a profitable activity if covered later in the day. It is an exceptionally profitable activity if a macro dip intervenes that afternoon.

    In the news, Marketwatch reports that no less than 14 of 33 Factset analysts increased their TSLA price targets since the Q2 ER. That's an amazingly positive response. The Q2 ER results will indeed bring new investors to TSLA, but with the media harping upon how overprice TSLA is, many of the new investors aren't likely to buy in on a day with dropping prices.

    What about the idea that S&P500 inclusion has been baked into the price already? I don't think so, and here's why. There's no tangible timetable for S&P500 inclusion. It's just one of those likely positives that's floating out there in the soup somewhere. Ironically, much of the acquisition of shares by S&P500 funds will have already occurred when we hear that TSLA is being added. We're going to see a particularly strong week of trading followed by an announcement, followed by more climbing, would be my guess.

    Anyway, the year 2020 still looks very bright for TSLA. The market will recover when Stimulus 4 comes out. Antibody therapeutics are likely less than 2 months away from compassionate care use in hospitals, and vaccines for COVID 19 so far are looking good. Battery day will amaze. Q3 results should be a shock to Wall Street as Tesla pulls off a better than 50% increase in deliveries from Q2 and with even better margins. The push upward from S&P500 inclusion is coming, though we don't know exactly when. With all this good stuff coming, I'm ready to ride out a brief dip.

    jul23tech.png
    Today's dip has temporarily brought TSLA back to the 1500 plateau. Considering the news presented in the Q2 ER, today's closing price should look attractive to new investors once this dip bottoms. The upper bollinger band is nearly 1800 now and await's the next moment of buyer's exuberance.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 353 (1.31%)
    * NASDAQ down 245 (2.29%)
    * TSLA 1513.07, down 79.26 (4.98%)
    * TSLA volume 24.3M shares
    * Oil 41.12
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 41%
     
    • Informative x 23
    • Like x 10
    • Helpful x 5
  15. madodel

    madodel X at the end of a rainbow

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2015
    Messages:
    2,172
    Location:
    Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
    @Papafox
    You mention tech stocks being down. For years now I've heard TSLA being analysed as an auto stock, but all day yesterday on CNBC (at least when I was watching) they kept lumping it in with the technology stocks. Are we seeing a change in how TSLA is being perceived by the market talking heads and analysts or was it just an excuse to use to beat down TSLA?
     
    • Like x 2
  16. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    For quite some time TSLA has run up and down more like a tech stock than any other kind of stock. When tech stocks are down, TSLA typically is too. I suggest that CNBC is grouping TSLA in with tech stocks because of the sector being down. It'll be interesting to see if they continue to refer to TSLA as a tech stock when tech stocks are up.
     
    • Informative x 6
    • Like x 5
  17. JeffreyY

    JeffreyY Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2016
    Messages:
    271
    Location:
    Honolulu
    Waiting with bated breath for your Friday analysis!
     
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  18. FireMedic

    FireMedic Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2020
    Messages:
    12
    Location:
    Concord, Ca
    I’ve refreshed this page no less than 100 times!
     
    • Funny x 2
  19. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2013
    Messages:
    4,706
    Douglas.png
    Looking forward to getting Friday's post sent, but right now I'm fairly busy getting ready for a houseguest named Douglas. I understand he's a real blowhard and can't wait for him to be on his way. Electricity permitting, I'll post tonight, but I still have a few hours of work ahead.

    Serve's me right for asking "After Thursday and Friday's trading, what else could go wrong?"
     
    • Funny x 15
    • Like x 6
    • Informative x 4
    • Love x 3
  20. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2013
    Messages:
    3,183
    Location:
    California
    I hope all drains well and no other threats! Best!!
     
    • Like x 4

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC