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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.

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  1. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Jan 12, 2013
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    #3361 Papafox, Mar 4, 2021 at 7:54 PM
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2021 at 8:03 PM
    mar4chart.jpg
    TSLA chart above
    mar4qqq.jpg
    QQQ chart above

    Thursday was an eventful day in the developing story of bond yields hurting tech and other high flyer stock prices. Fed Chairman Powell spoke. The market had been hoping he'd take steps to stabilize yields on 10 year treasury bonds, but instead he pretty much reiterated the Fed's current position that inflation shouldn't be a problem and that during the transition to a fuller economy the Fed could tolerate a couple quarters of temporarily higher inflation. The market instead was hoping the Fed would use one of the tools it had at its disposal for stabilizing the treasury yields, and when no word of positive action came from Powell, stocks dipped significantly on Thursday as 10 yr. Treasury yields climbed above 1.5% annualized yields.

    Naturally, we have short-sellers messing with our investments. There's a good deal of shorting on 10 year treasury bonds. Shorting a bond pushes the price down, which brings the yield up. Many observers believe that at some point we'll see a short squeeze in 10 year treasury bonds. Unfortunately, bringing this squeeze about is quite a bit beyond what a Reddit group can do.

    Shorts are also working TSLA stock. Here's the latest from Ihor Dusaniwsky.
    mar4ihor.jpg

    TSLA's dip exceeded the NASDAQ's dip by a bit more than 2X, which isn't surprising. Of concern to me was the volume of TSLA exceeded 64 million. Such volume pretty much shows that real investor concerns rather than manipulations were at the root of today's dip. My guess is that some investors sold on Thursday to generate cash in case the bond-market problems continue to dog the stock market for more time to come. Because of this development, I've moved my personal stance from one of "poised to buy" to "HODL and watch carefully". At some point progress will be made and with TSLA selling at such bargain prices relative to the S&P500 inclusion price, plenty of buyers would like to jump in when the all clear siren sounds. The problem is that we have seen false indications that the worst is behind us, such as Monday's very strong performance. I'm likely going to be listening for word from the Feds or some stronger indication that we've bottomed out before buying in after Thursday's developments. If you have dry powder be sure to stay closely informed with financial developments. One way to do so if you don't live in front of a computer screen is to set some price alerts on stocks and indexes that would alert you if something significant is happening in the market. I'll have an alert for $10 over TSLA's closing price to roust me into action if it is deserved.

    In any event, I'm settling into expectations of a longer wait for a recovery but I'm doubling up efforts to be alerted when that blessed hour arrives.

    mar4maxp.jpg
    The max pain chart shows puts dominating from about 680 and below, so don't expect any market maker push higher on Friday. If this Friday follows last Friday, don't expect much market maker help in avoiding a close below 600, either. There are stronger forces at work, at the moment.

    mar4tech.jpg
    Notice the substantial volume (bottom line). Unfortunately for TSLA, it is up so much in the past year that some investors likely sold shares on Thursday to generate cash as they wait out the market's weakness.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 346 (1.11%)
    * NASDAQ down 274 (2.11%)
    * SPY down 5 (1.24%)
    * TSLA 621.44, down 31.76 (4.86%)
    * TSLA volume 64.6M shares
    * Oil 63.83
    * Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 37%
    * IV 76.4, 51%
     
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