Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Here's the day's pre-market and regular trading for TSLA the day after the intended Solar City acquisition was announced. The broader markets were slightly down today, with the Nasdaq peaking highest at about 11:15am, right about where TSLA peaked. Note the high volume.
Conditions:
* DOW down 49 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ down 10 (0.22%)
* TSLA down 23 (10.45%)
* TSLA volume 23.7M shares
TSLA ended the day at a price similar to what it began the normal trading. The biggest question is: who were the buyers and who were the sellers? Changes in short numbers might indicate later that shorts were buying to cover and longs were selling out of fear. Could have been the other way around, however, and we'll get an idea when the number of short shares held for this period are revealed. If shorts were locked out today from shorting, then that narrows the possibilities (could someone verify?).

 

[justdoit]

Seems like shorts were definitely not locked out.

"Share lending data suggested short sellers were increasing their bets against both companies. Interest rates to borrow Tesla shares rose to 5 percent on Wednesday from 1.5 percent early in the day, according to S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm. Hardly any SolarCity shares were available for borrowing."

Behind Tesla carnage, signs of support for Musk's SolarCity deal

 

[sunhelm]

View attachment 182188
Here's the day's pre-market and regular trading for TSLA the day after the intended Solar City acquisition was announced. The broader markets were slightly down today, with the Nasdaq peaking highest at about 11:15am, right about where TSLA peaked. Note the high volume.
Conditions:
* DOW down 49 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ down 10 (0.22%)
* TSLA down 23 (10.45%)
* TSLA volume 23.7M shares
TSLA ended the day at a price similar to what it began the normal trading. The biggest question is: who were the buyers and who were the sellers? Changes in short numbers might indicate later that shorts were buying to cover and longs were selling out of fear. Could have been the other way around, however, and we'll get an idea when the number of short shares held for this period are revealed. If shorts were locked out today from shorting, then that narrows the possibilities (could someone verify?).

From the Tracking short interest thread, TSLA shares available to short reduced to 292,300 , down from 1,089,395 shares available on Monday from Fidelity. Shorts are more than doubling down!

Tracking short interest

 

[Papafox]

First of all, thanks to Justdoit and sunhelm for their very useful contributions above.

Conditions:
DOW up 230 (1.29%)
NASDAQ up 77 (1.59%)
TSLA down 0.26 (0.13%)
TSLA volume 9.9M shares

Today was an opportunity to view TSLA trading on a day when short-selling is not allowed. Mostly we saw a nervous market, not sure yet if TSLA has bottomed out yet but also nervous about missing a big jump upward. Thus, the sharp movements both up and down. The good news from the posts above is that the apparent overreaction to the SCTY acquisition drop includes a large amount of short-sellers reentering TSLA shortly before apparent catalysts that take place in July. That downward pressure on SP will be reversed as the shorts buy to cover their positions (possibly in the near future).

 

[TMSE]

Today was an opportunity to view TSLA trading on a day when short-selling is not allowed. Mostly we saw a nervous market, not sure yet if TSLA has bottomed out yet but also nervous about missing a big jump upward. Thus, the sharp movements both up and down. The good news from the posts above is that the apparent overreaction to the SCTY acquisition drop includes a large amount of short-sellers reentering TSLA shortly before apparent catalysts that take place in July. That downward pressure on SP will be reversed as the shorts buy to cover their positions (possibly in the near future).

Why wasn't short selling allowed today? Is that an adhoc decision made by stock exchanges in light of over 10% drop previous day? Or, is it an automatic backstop that gets triggered during heavy selling?

 

[Papafox]

Why wasn't short selling allowed today? Is that an adhoc decision made by stock exchanges in light of over 10% drop previous day? Or, is it an automatic backstop that gets triggered during heavy selling?

TMSE, We saw the SEC short-trading "circuit-breaker" trip on Wednesday. It is an automatic feature, from what I understand, that imposes significant restrictions on short selling following a stock's drop of more than 10%. It is a protection to reduce the chances of short-sellers manipulating a stock significantly.

 

[justdoit]

Are we sure the circuit breaker was tripped? I don't see it on the list http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker

Select "Historical Thresholds List" on the left to find the list for Wednesday.
ftp://ftp.nasdaqtrader.com/SymbolDirectory/regsho/

 

[phigment]

Are we sure the circuit breaker was tripped? I don't see it on the list http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker

Select "Historical Thresholds List" on the left to find the list for Wednesday.
ftp://ftp.nasdaqtrader.com/SymbolDirectory/regsho/

Check the day before
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/symdir/shorthalts/shorthalts20160623.txt

 

[wycolo]

I seldom trade short-term options, but I sold at 222 this morning the calls I bought on Friday's late afternoon low near 215 and took a nice profit. [PappaFox]

So, fess up, how many points did you garner? If I had synched with you and also gotten the 7 points with a simple buy/sell (the only trade I know how to make) who would have come out ahead pre-tax?
--

 

[Ulmo]

I look forward to today's chart. I already see 13 minute macro opening morning rally which on SPY looks like a straight line.

 

[Papafox]

Today was the day after Brexit and TSLA held up well compared to the general markets.
Conditions:
* DOW down 611 (3.38%)
* NASDAQ down 202 (4.12%)
* TSLA down 3.25 (1.65%)
* TSLA volume 6.5M shares
One clue in the morning to TSLA's resilience was a message on the shorts tracking thread that indicated the number of shares available to short had increased by about 500,000. This indicates that shorts were using Brexit to buy in and exit positions. To put this number in perspective, the number of shares available to short dropped from about a million to about a quarter of that amount of Wednesday, the first full day of trading after the SCTY acquisition plans were announced. It is essential to keep track of what the shorts are doing to explain what just happened and what may happen.

We now have just 5 days of trading before the 2Q delivery numbers are announced. I expect more shorts to close positions prior to that date.

 

[Papafox]

I look forward to today's chart. I already see 13 minute macro opening morning rally which on SPY looks like a straight line.

Yes, it is interesting how many moments of level trading we saw today. That observation creates a bit of a challenge to understand, though, if one equates level trading on a volatile day with manipulation. In general, we saw shorts buying more than they sold today, if you believe the numbers coming from the shorts tracking thread. If manipulation was indeed present, was it from some deep-pocketed longs hoping to keep TSLA reasonably stable today and keep from ruining the SCTY proposed merger? Was it longs buying in with no manipulation in mind but buying in at these great prices ahead of some potentially potent catalysts but buying in with a limit order to prevent their buying from driving up the cost of the shares too much? Overall, I see more incentive for longs to be responsible for sideways trading than shorts, given the apparent move toward the buy side for the short sellers today.

 

[Papafox]

Here's the after-market trading for TSLA on Friday, June 24. Notice the significant drop after 6pm. It happened during the lowest-volume time of trading (when people have gone home for the weekend) and so it might be manipulation. It might be related to news announced around 6pm Eastern time. Don't know which case it is.

 

[TMSE]

View attachment 182582
Here's the after-market trading for TSLA on Friday, June 24. Notice the significant drop after 6pm. It happened during the lowest-volume time of trading (when people have gone home for the weekend) and so it might be manipulation. It might be related to news announced around 6pm Eastern time. Don't know which case it is.

What was the news? I couldn't find anything noteworthy.

 

[Papafox]

What was the news? I couldn't find anything noteworthy.

Neither could I. It may be generalized fear of Brexit effect on Monday, or it could be manipulation. For these reasons I wouldn't regard it as a signal.

 

[Papafox]

Conditions:
DOW down 261 (1.50%)
NASDAQ down 119 (2.41%)
TSLA up 5.40 (2.80%)
TSLA volume 7.2M shares
SCTY up 1.89%

I've added SCTY performance to the conditions so that we can keep track to the relationship between TSLA and SCTY performance. A significant divergence could indicate doubts about the acquisition.

Looking at trading patterns, I see none of the sharp downward jabs followed immediately by near recoveries as we see when shorts look to be manipulating TSLA. My theory is that the smarter shorts are getting out of TSLA this week and won't be playing games that require them to increase their TSLA short holdings. With moderation of the hit on U.S. exchanges by Brexit fears, TSLA was able to stage an upturn in SP because it looks like Brexit will not be able to drag TSLA lower in the short run and smart shorts will be wanting to exit their TSLA positions prior to Friday, when Q2 delivery numbers may be released. Since there's no longer any short-term upside for being short (unless Tesla misses its delivery numbers, which is not likely), and there is plenty of short-term downside for being short TSLA, smarter shorts will be exiting this week and longs should join in the buying party because 1) there are few stocks performing positively right now and 2) positive catalysts are on the horizon.

 

[Papafox]

Conditions:
* DOW up 289 (1.57%)
* NASDAQ up 97 (2.12%)
* TSLA up 3.24 (1.63%)
* TSLA volume 6M shares
* SCTY up 5%
* News: Argus downgraded TSLA from buy to hold because of SCTY proposal and Doug Kass ends TSLA short position

What I found most interesting about today's trading were the upward thrusts, particularly the one on opening. These tell me that shorts (and perhaps some longs) are worried about missing the train when TSLA heads upward. Should we get solidly positive news, such as a beat with 2Q deliveries, these nervous traders are likely to push TSLA quite a bit higher. Q2 numbers could be out as early as Friday.

The exit of Doug Kass from a TSLA short position is consistent with my theory that the smarter shorts will be closing their TSLA positions before the weekend.

 

[Papafox]

So, fess up, how many points did you garner? If I had synched with you and also gotten the 7 points with a simple buy/sell (the only trade I know how to make) who would have come out ahead pre-tax?
--

Well, I spent slightly less than $1000 to buy two calls and sold a few days later for slightly less than $1500. As a percentage of investment I did quite well, but it'd be a whole lot easier for me to lose the entire investment if my timing with events such as Brexit had been different. If you had bought 200 shares of TSLA and then sold after the rise, you would have made $1400, nearly three times as much as I cleared, but your investment would need to have been more than 20 times as great as mine.

 

[Papafox]

Today the march toward the Q2 delivery numbers release really got into gear. Hurrah! Trading followed the steady climb of the NASDAQ until an hour before closing and then did an exaggerated climb and dip compared to the broader market. Since TSLA seemed to be taking cues from the broader market I will be very interested to see what tomorrow brings.
Conditions:
* DOW up 285 (1.64%)
* NASDAQ up 87 (1.86%)
* TSLA up 8.40 (4.16%)
* TSLA volume 6M shares
* SCTY up 0.54 (2.27%)
One of the fascinating developments of the past few days is that shares of TSLA for short-selling have been decreasing as TSLA heads upward. As the smarter shorts cover their positions, they're apparently being more than replaced by shorts who don't know the story as well. In many ways, this could be a perfect storm brewing if the Q2 delivery numbers are good, the gigafactory opening reveals a fast-growing and profitable path for Tesla Energy, and we receive confirmation that battery manufacturing and other preparations for Model 3 are on track. Add a good Q2 ER and this could be a much better summer than we thought possible with some of the recent developments.

 

[Papafox]

Today was the final guaranteed day to cover before Q2 delivery numbers are announced. For the first time in the recent history of TSLA, fidelity reported that there were zero shares of TSLA available for shorting. Thus, the ability to short this stock has pretty much dried up. The fall after hours was due to an inquiry into a fatal accident involving Tesla autopilot. About 5pm Telsa issued a statement, which brought the SP higher for a while and allowed the SP to stabilize above 206 for most of the day's remainder.

With record shorting of TSLA, the stock will be well-positioned for a nice run upwards after the 2Q delivery number release, should the company substantially beat estimates.

Conditions:
* DOW up 235 (1.33%)
* NASDAQ up 63 (1.33%)
* TSLA up 2.09 (0.99%)
* TSLA volume 4.8M shares
* SCTY down 0.36 (1.48%)
* Bloomberg and some other media outlets are reportedly only telling the negative facts of the autopilot accident and not mentioning the extenuating circumstances, such as a semi-truck that swung broadside across the highway. Reporting in such a fashion may cause TSLA to open in the red tomorrow.