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MacRocket, here's hoping someone with more technical analysis background than me takes a stab at it. Cheers!
Actually I can’t think of anyone more qualified than you Papafox to answer these questions, that’s why I posted them here.
I can look and understand RSI and Bollinger bands with charts but when it comes to resistance levels I’m lost.
@MacRocket , I encourage you to post you question here in the tech analysis thread, so that people more knowledgeable than me can give you their opinions.
That said, when TSLA descends below a previous support point, goes way low, and then recovers very quickly, two things happen in my mind. First, the support point is weakened because investors are less confident it will hold in the future. Second, when the stock makes a rapid recovery from the dip, it sends a signal to investors that panic selling below the support number is probably a bad idea. Thus, it sends two conflicting messages, as I see it.
Keep in mind that although the consolidation in recent weeks has been around 300ish, the trend has been slowly downward and a number such as 292, which had been solid support, now falls within the recent trading range, which renders it less likely to be solid support any more.
On the way up, I see 300 has been resistance lately, but it might be resistance primarily because 1) shorts are defending it from a climb and 2) the round number 300 encourages buying below ("I bought TSLA in the 290s"). For resistance levels, I would go with numbers that Option_Sniper put out (327, 346, 355) because places where the SP pauses on the way up are obstacles (i.e. resistance).
@Papafox, cross-posting from the Market thread because I thought you would be interested in the new report from IHS/Markit (courtesy of @ZachShahan at cleantechnica), showing that short interest now exceeds 40 million shares. This is up about 9-10 million shares from the March 29 report (31.7M shares). Quite a dramatic increase in a short period of time ....
Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica
That's such a large increase I almost don't believe it. However, it would explain why the share price has been having so much trouble lately and with the crazy amount of FUD out there everyone and their grandma is probably shorting TSLA now. I would short TSLA also if all I read was that garbage.@Papafox, cross-posting from the Market thread because I thought you would be interested in the new report from IHS/Markit (courtesy of @ZachShahan at cleantechnica), showing that short interest now exceeds 40 million shares. This is up about 9-10 million shares from the March 29 report (31.7M shares). Quite a dramatic increase in a short period of time ....
Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica
That's such a large increase I almost don't believe it. However, it would explain why the share price has been having so much trouble lately and with the crazy amount of FUD out there everyone and their grandma is probably shorting TSLA now. I would short TSLA also if all I read was that garbage.
If TSLA executes, (<--should I take out this comma?) these shorts will have to unwind their positions and longs will do well. DITM J19 calls should be safe in this scenario but OTM J20s might be the best risk/reward since a major short unwinding may not come until after Q4 results get reported and OTM will likely generate a much better return. OTM June/September/J19 COULD do the best but shorts have proven to be stubborn in the past. A Model 3 could run them over and they wouldn't cover.
13 million shares is also ~ 1.5x of Tencent owned shares. Tencent's purchases drove the stock price up from $180s to $300s over 4 months. If for no other reason, I would hold TSLA long just to see what happens when 10s of millions short shares are covered.AFAIK, IHS/Markit is pretty credible but it would be good to see the data verified by another source. We will get the official mid-April update after market close and maybe Ihor will provide more current info as well.
Assuming the data is accurate, it is as if Baillie Gifford -- the second biggest TSLA investor -- dumped all ~13 million of its shares in a month. Really a staggering move. That the SP has held up as well as it has suggests there is also strong buying interest counteracting the short selling, which makes sense given the tangible progress on the production ramp we have seen.
PS We'll keep an eye on the comma.
@Papafox, cross-posting from the Market thread because I thought you would be interested in the new report from IHS/Markit (courtesy of @ZachShahan at cleantechnica), showing that short interest now exceeds 40 million shares. This is up about 9-10 million shares from the March 29 report (31.7M shares). Quite a dramatic increase in a short period of time ....
Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica
Yeah, if we get confirmation I'm going to have to reallocate some funds to TSLA.I'll be keeping an eye out for independent confirmation of the number before I trade, but my reaction is that now I'm thinking about some small dollars in OTM LEAPs as a lottery ticket.
I don't have an opinion on the actual company and source - just wanted to say that I've been following short interest in the company for several years now, and I'd consider 35M shares short to be outrageously and probably unrealistically high. 40M is so much further out than that I have a hard time finding words. High 20's and low 30'sM has been what I've been accustomed to.
It would help explain why my shares have been lent out as consistently as they have for the last few months.
I'll be keeping an eye out for independent confirmation of the number before I trade, but my reaction is that now I'm thinking about some small dollars in OTM LEAPs as a lottery ticket.
Following up on my post above, Ihor Dusaniwsky just issued a report that Tesla short interest has increased to $10.7B, which is approximately 35.2M shares at $304/share.
This is an increase of about 7M shares since the March 15 report and 3.5M in past two weeks since the March 29 report -- as suspected a significant amount. (According to Ihor, the total shares shorted jumped 7.7 million in the past month).
Barron's article has a negative slant but some of the details from Ihor. Shorting Tesla Is Back in Fashion
@Papafox, cross-posting from the Market thread because I thought you would be interested in the new report from IHS/Markit (courtesy of @ZachShahan at cleantechnica), showing that short interest now exceeds 40 million shares. This is up about 9-10 million shares from the March 29 report (31.7M shares). Quite a dramatic increase in a short period of time ....
Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica
I don't have an opinion on the actual company and source - just wanted to say that I've been following short interest in the company for several years now, and I'd consider 35M shares short to be outrageously and probably unrealistically high. 40M is so much further out than that I have a hard time finding words. High 20's and low 30'sM has been what I've been accustomed to.
It would help explain why my shares have been lent out as consistently as they have for the last few months.
I'll be keeping an eye out for independent confirmation of the number before I trade, but my reaction is that now I'm thinking about some small dollars in OTM LEAPs as a lottery ticket.