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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.

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  1. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    MacRocket, here's hoping someone with more technical analysis background than me takes a stab at it. Cheers!
     
  2. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    apr19chart.JPG
    I must admit to being surprised by TSLA's strength today. With TSLA's fade from its early-morning high yesterday, I figured the shorts would be doing their usual tricks and slowly chiseling away at the SP while we await the restart of Model 3 production. Instead, we saw a nice progression from Mandatory morning dip (three definite stabs downward), followed by over an hour of whack-the-mole, followed by a nice climb that continued until close.

    So, why did TSLA gain strength today, particularly with the macros having a down day? Here are some possibilities:
    * Tesla just revealed that the 1Q ER is going to be on May 2. Elon needs good production numbers from Model 3 to balance the dismal financial numbers we'll see, and his willingness to set the ER date early suggests confidence in achieving good M3 production numbers by May 2.
    * Perhaps because of the 2May ER date, indications (interest rates charged) are that demand for shares to short are falling, suggesting that a bit of short covering is taking place. Expect some of the buying today to be covering by shorts who don't want to wait around for potentially good M3 production numbers to be revealed.
    * Some big institutional buyer has decided Tesla looks good enough for them to be willing to pick up additional shares
    * Yesterday we saw an attractive setup for manipulative short-sellers: a big jump up in price early in the morning but without the confidence in longs to defend that new price. Short manipulators made money walking the SP down yesterday from its high. Today was just the reverse: money spent to get an MMD started and then TSLA rising for most of the day, precluding profits for short day traders.

    Option Sniper continues to be bullish on TSLA:
    apr19.JPG

    Note: I have added "Percentage of trading by shorts" to the conditions below.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 83 (0.34%)
    * NASDAQ down 57 (0.78%)
    * TSLA 300.08, up 6.73 (2.29%)
    * TSLA volume 5.9M shares
    * Percentage of trading by shorts: 55%
    * Oil 68.26, down 0.07 (0.10%)
     
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  3. MacRocket

    MacRocket Faster than Falcon 9

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    Actually I can’t think of anyone more qualified than you Papafox to answer these questions, that’s why I posted them here.

    I can look and understand RSI and Bollinger bands with charts but when it comes to resistance levels I’m lost.
     
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  4. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    @MacRocket : TA people: Hewitt, Jesselivenomore to name two quickly
     
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  5. Lbkmxp100d

    Lbkmxp100d Member

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    Agreed! I have much respect for @Papafox.
     
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  6. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #1226 Papafox, Apr 21, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2018
    apr20chart.JPG
    Today was a weak day for TSLA as it followed the broader markets down, no doubt with help of the shorts (who can make money day-trade-shorting this stock on its long descent after 10:30am). Thursday began near the low end of recent trading range, Friday began near the high end. Thursday saw the MMD defeated and the stock enter the green, Friday's response to the MMD never reached the green. Thursday was mostly a constantly rising SP day where short manipulators can't make money, Friday was just the opposite. You've heard it all from me before. Days like this happen.

    For the week, TSLA lost a dime more than $10. Let's consider what happened during the week and see if that $10 loss maybe isn't such a big deal. The CBS interview of Elon aired a week ago on Friday. As we entered the new week, though, the media (either through incompetence or outright malice in seeking clicks over truth) took Elon's words about the need to ditch the parts conveyor system as meaning too many robots are the problem with production. This falsehood was then built upon with stories of significant hiring by Tesla and the need to halt Model 3 production. The truth of the matter (if you believe Elon) is that 1) robots are not the problem nor is the need for their removal the reason for shutting down the M3 production line, 2) hiring is taking place because Tesla is gearing up for 24/7 production of Model 3 with hopes to enable burst rates of 6K M3s/wk by the end of June, and 3) the pause in M3 production is to tweak the line to enable 3K-4K production in the very near future. Basically, Elon said things are shaping up now for massive increases in Model 3 production. What the media basically said, though, is that too many robots were used in the line, Tesla now has to shut down the line to remove those dang useless robots, and it is hiring humans big time to replace the useless robots that are being removed. If you believe these fish stories, then the next conclusions are that the ramp is in serious trouble and margins on M3 are in trouble because this influx in humans is needed just to replace the troublesome robots. Sheesh.

    Thus, it'll be with considerable surprise to shorts and naysayers when Tesla announces 3-4K/wk production of Model 3 some time in May and (hopefully) a production rate of close to 5K by the end of June. Margins are not going to be decimated by the removal of a parts conveyor, and if you believe that Elon Musk is clever enough to put the Russians out of the satellite launching business, you will likely believe he'll find a way to build 5K Model 3s/wk this summer, make money, and see to it that we investors are rewarded for our patience. Hitting 5K/wk might happen in July instead of June, but what's a month in the disruptive transformation of vehicular transportation here on planet Earth?

    Have a good weekend.

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 202 (0.82%)
    * NASDAQ down 92 (1.27%)
    * TSLA 290.24, down 9.84 (3.28%)
    * TSLA volume 5.3M shares
    * Oil 68.40, up 0.07 (0.10%)
    * Percentage of trading by shorts: 55%
     
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  7. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    @MacRocket , I encourage you to post you question here in the tech analysis thread, so that people more knowledgeable than me can give you their opinions.

    That said, when TSLA descends below a previous support point, goes way low, and then recovers very quickly, two things happen in my mind. First, the support point is weakened because investors are less confident it will hold in the future. Second, when the stock makes a rapid recovery from the dip, it sends a signal to investors that panic selling below the support number is probably a bad idea. Thus, it sends two conflicting messages, as I see it.

    Keep in mind that although the consolidation in recent weeks has been around 300ish, the trend has been slowly downward and a number such as 292, which had been solid support, now falls within the recent trading range, which renders it less likely to be solid support any more.

    On the way up, I see 300 has been resistance lately, but it might be resistance primarily because 1) shorts are defending it from a climb and 2) the round number 300 encourages buying below ("I bought TSLA in the 290s"). For resistance levels, I would go with numbers that Option_Sniper put out (327, 346, 355) because places where the SP pauses on the way up are obstacles (i.e. resistance).
     
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  8. MacRocket

    MacRocket Faster than Falcon 9

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    Thank you Papafox, this and Option Snipers resistance levels have answered my questions.
    Interestingly a friend of mine, who is an amateur chartist but knows only a little about Tesla thinks current support is $285 to $290. He thinks if this is broken TSLA may revisit strong support level of $245 to $250.
    Overhead resistance he see’s a similar picture to Option Sniper in the $320 to $350 range.

    He also noted that it was a strange looking chart and he was not quite sure what to make of it. Maybe this is a chart reflection of the unpredictable genius of Elon Musk?
     
  9. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #1229 Papafox, Apr 24, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
    upload_2018-4-23_19-54-26.png
    Please, step into my office, we have to talk. The Tesla shorts hear the clock ticking. They're pretty smug about the Q1 ER having bad financial numbers and many are clueless about likely margins on Model 3, but many know that Tesla has filled up the employee parking lots again at Fremont and Model 3 production has resumed with not only a bumper crop of battery modules available (because of the factory downtime and coming Grohmann line operations) but also with several days of enhancements to the line. Bloomberg, which has been rather tough on Tesla and cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered a friend to Tesla, shows a trend toward 3,000 M3/wk soon. More than 5,000 M3 VIN numbers were obtained by Tesla on Sunday for its production needs. Thus, some of the shorts are getting rather antsy about seeing TSLA dive below 250 because they missed their chance last time and once Model 3 production shoots up, those days of deep dips are gone, gone, gone.

    So... they used TSLA's low volume and particularly low afternoon volume today to get as much traction downward as possible.
    * Despite green pre-market trading and a rising NASDAQ after open, a rather deep mandatory morning dip ensued (courtesy of you know who)
    * With the NASDAQ climbing higher into the green for much of the morning,TSLA eventually reached green after 4 manufactured plunge dips. Naturally, it was time for "whack the mole" as TSLA dared stick its head up into the green.
    * About 11:20am the NASDAQ started a descent from its high (well in the green). This was a perfect setup for the shorts because TSLA could now descend even more by following the NASDAQ
    * Both the NASDAQ and TSLA leveled off in early afternoon, but shorts managed to get TSLA rolling downhill at 1:30pm, a full half hour before the NASDAQ started sliding
    * The NASDAQ bottomed out a little before 3pm and started climbing. Here is where manipulative shorts really make a difference because TSLA rose slower than the NASDAQ because of short-selling to make the dip "sticky"
    * About 20 minutes before close, the shorts gave their push to end the day with a nice dip, even though the NASDAQ was rising. Much has been made by Option_Sniper about TSLA holding onto 284, and I'm sure the shorts read his work too because they appear to have gone out of their way on numerous occasions to push TSLA below a "critical to hold" number mentioned by the sniper.
    * In the final minutes of trading, TSLA started going back up. Why? I suspect it's those traders who recognize the pattern of the shorts in pushing the stock down late in the afternoon who are taking advantage of this push. TSLA closed at 283.37, below option_sniper's "must hold" number, but TSLA climber back to 284 in after-hours trading.

    We're now at the low end of the recent trading range, making TSLA susceptible to a big green day when news of a solid ramp-up of Model 3 hits the internet. There's nothing special about what's going on here, it's merely shorts having some success with manipulations on a low volume day when the trajectory of the broader indexes are favorable for manipulations.

    On Tuesday we will learn of the amount of shares controlled by shorts. I suspect it will be very considerably above the 31 million we saw just a few weeks ago. The unusually large number of shorts (if history repeats itself) will lead to quite a large run-up in the SP once the present concern is addressed. Please look at this stock price right now in terms of downside vs. upside. Yes, if the ramp-up of Model 3 for some reason hits another bottleneck soon and is very slow, then we could revisit the mid-200s. That's really a relatively small possibility I suspect, and the upside is a run to the high 300s or lower 400s before the year is up. In terms of risk vs. reward, I can understand why volume is low: longs would rather sit tight for the likely run upward this year than bail on fears of a dip before Model 3 eventually ramps. Unfortunately, the low volume allows the shorts to work their mischief and chisel away at the SP until a big-ass green day comes along and neutralizes their efforts.The risk vs. rewards mindset of shorts is much different and thus we see them pushing hard at a time when many of us suspect a big run-up is just around the corner. Hang in there, for the fun part of this journey is likely not far away.

    apr23nas350.png
    Today's NASDAQ chart gives a good idea how the short manipulators can cause TSLA to drop much more than the broader index

    Conditions:
    * Dow down 14 (0.06%)
    * NASDAQ down 18 (0.25%)
    * TSLA 283.37, down 6.87 (2.37%)
    * TSLA volume 4.8M shares
    * Oil 69.14, up 0.50 (0.73%)
    * Percentage of trading by shorts: 56%
     
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  10. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    @Papafox, cross-posting from the Market thread because I thought you would be interested in the new report from IHS/Markit (courtesy of @ZachShahan at cleantechnica), showing that short interest now exceeds 40 million shares. This is up about 9-10 million shares from the March 29 report (31.7M shares). Quite a dramatic increase in a short period of time ....

    Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
    Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica
     
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  11. Lbkmxp100d

    Lbkmxp100d Member

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    If it visits 245-250 I’m buying as many calls as I can afford.
    WOW!!! When this tide breaks its going to look like the Falcon 9 taking off!
     
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  12. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    That's such a large increase I almost don't believe it. However, it would explain why the share price has been having so much trouble lately and with the crazy amount of FUD out there everyone and their grandma is probably shorting TSLA now. I would short TSLA also if all I read was that garbage.

    If TSLA executes, (<--should I take out this comma?) these shorts will have to unwind their positions and longs will do well. DITM J19 calls should be safe in this scenario but OTM J20s might be the best risk/reward since a major short unwinding may not come until after Q4 results get reported and OTM will likely generate a much better return. OTM June/September/J19 COULD do the best but shorts have proven to be stubborn in the past. A Model 3 could run them over and they wouldn't cover.
     
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  13. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #1233 EinSV, Apr 24, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
    AFAIK, IHS/Markit is pretty credible but it would be good to see the data verified by another source. We will get the official mid-April update after market close and maybe Ihor will provide more current info as well.

    Assuming the data is accurate, it is as if Baillie Gifford -- the second biggest TSLA investor -- dumped all ~13 million of its shares in a month. Really a staggering move. That the SP has held up as well as it has suggests there is also strong buying interest counteracting the short selling, which makes sense given the tangible progress on the production ramp we have seen.

    PS We'll keep an eye on the comma. ;)
     
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  14. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    13 million shares is also ~ 1.5x of Tencent owned shares. Tencent's purchases drove the stock price up from $180s to $300s over 4 months. If for no other reason, I would hold TSLA long just to see what happens when 10s of millions short shares are covered.
     
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  15. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    I don't have an opinion on the actual company and source - just wanted to say that I've been following short interest in the company for several years now, and I'd consider 35M shares short to be outrageously and probably unrealistically high. 40M is so much further out than that I have a hard time finding words. High 20's and low 30'sM has been what I've been accustomed to.

    It would help explain why my shares have been lent out as consistently as they have for the last few months.


    I'll be keeping an eye out for independent confirmation of the number before I trade, but my reaction is that now I'm thinking about some small dollars in OTM LEAPs as a lottery ticket.
     
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  16. Jonathan Hewitt

    Jonathan Hewitt Active Member

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    Yeah, if we get confirmation I'm going to have to reallocate some funds to TSLA.
     
  17. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    On April 11, Ihor Dusaniwsky posted data that suggested short interest was up to about 35M shares (see post below). If the short interest report today for April 13 confirms something in that range, it would appear to be roughly consistent with the IHS/Markit report although the increased shorting trend would have needed to continue and even accelerate a bit after April 11. Look forward to seeing the data later today and maybe Ihor will provide an update in the next day or two.

     
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  18. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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    thanks for the tag. honestly, i buried the lede far too deeply in that one. :p

    i was sitting on the initial email far too long, so just asked for an update. when i got the response and finally looked at the graph after the weekend, i was stunned at the jump. pretty insane.

    i'd also like to see what happens in the coming weeks (months?) with such a dramatic short interest.
     
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  19. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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    i don't have much perspective on stock analysis/coverage of companies like this, but i do consider IHS to be a top source in general for various kinds of analysis (not necessarily forecasting, which is a different game of course). i'd assume they know what they're doing and this isn't a mistake. but, again, it's not what i focus much of my time on.
     
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  20. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Active Member

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    as an extra note ... since you people are much more involved and in tune with investment matters and this is a pretty fascinating story to me, if someone wants to put together a guest post for CleanTechnica on this matter (TSLA shorts), i'd be happy to read, consider, and possibly publish it.
     
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