-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
- Start date
-
- Tags
- elon is an ass TSLA
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Correct - 5M shares transacted on a day, 60% of those transactions involving sell-to-open, does not mean that open interest increases 3M shares.
The key here is to remember that every transaction is both a buy and a sell -- somebody sells stock to somebody buying. Both buying and selling have "to open" and "to close" variations.
So a standard transaction we think of in the market is somebody buy-to-open something they want to own, from somebody that is sell-to-close the shares they've had, but don't want any longer.
There are three other combos
- buy-to-open from sell-to-open -- short interest increases as the total number of shares in circulation is increased.
- buy-to-close from sell-to-open
- buy-to-close from sell-to-close.
So in a totally made up universe, our 5M share trading day in which 60% of sales are sell-to-open(short), total open shares short can net SHRINK that day. If all of the sell-to-open are matched with buy-to-close (shorts are buying and selling with each other), and the 2M sell-to-close are also matched up with buy-to-close, that's a day where short sellers take all 5M of the buy side transactions, and 3M of the sell side transactions.
I would say that probably the hardest thing about short sales to get your head around, is to get comfortable with the buy-to-close and sell-to-open idea. That you can "open" a new position by selling something you don't have, and then you can close that position you started by selling something you didn't have, by buying it back.
What's worked best for me is think of it as taking the buy/sell sequence and doing the same two activities, but reversing their order. You need a loan on the side to make it work, but otherwise its the same activities
MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Papafox,
One of the FUD fighters on twitter sent me this video on market Manipulations. I’m wondering if you would be kind enough to watch it and give your opinion as to whether this is really how things work?
I have also posted this on the “Elon Needs Our Help” thread. If you think it’s worthwhile I could also post it on the general market discussion thread.
“Cramer Manipulations “
One of the FUD fighters on twitter sent me this video on market Manipulations. I’m wondering if you would be kind enough to watch it and give your opinion as to whether this is really how things work?
I have also posted this on the “Elon Needs Our Help” thread. If you think it’s worthwhile I could also post it on the general market discussion thread.
“Cramer Manipulations “
MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Here's what you're missing: A newly-shorting short-seller can be selling to an old short-seller who is covering. A substantial amount of the sell-to-open transactions are made with someone who is buying-to-close. In fact, we can conclude from the numbers that this is definitely happening. In this case, one side of the transaction is probably a market maker or bona fide hedger or day trader.
This is illegal (market manipulation) but it is in fact possible. It's usually only possible on low volume though.
When Trading Stops: What You Need to Know About Halts, Suspensions and Other Interruptions | FINRA.org
- changes related to the financial health of the company;
- major corporate transactions like restructurings or mergers;
- significant positive or negative information about its products;
- changes in key management individuals; and
- legal or regulatory developments that affect the company’s ability to conduct business
Also, more detail on the uptick rule...
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=shortsalecircuitbreaker
This info from prior post about Reg sho
Key Points About Regulation SHO
And Tesla short interest
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com
Last edited:
Yes, I have watched the video and although I often disagree with Cramer, I think he's honest and speaking from experience. Also, Curt Renz was a television commentator on business issues for quite some time and he has posted the video many times to illustrate how the market can be manipulated in the short term. The good news? No manipulations are going to keep a good company down over the long run. This is why I'm a leap and shares investor. I don't like exposing my money to the uncertainties of short-term manipulations.
PS: Thanks for defending Tesla against the FUDsters. I know many TMC members who are active in countering the FUD, but you probably won't recognize them because they typically use identifiers other than their TMC identifiers for this kind of work.
MacRocket
Faster than Falcon 9
Thank you for your insights Papafox.
I am following your advice regarding tsla, fully invested long. Won’t sell any for at least 10 years so hopefully the short term Manipulations won’t effect me.
The shorts can only hold back the flood waters for so long, pretty soon they will be overwhelmed.
There is currently a lot of positive tsla news coming from some TMC members on twitter. They are doing an amazing job. Some are even posting carpark photos and videos.
Thanks again for your reports Papafox, I read them every day.
Interesting week coming I think.
Today was a huge down day for the broader markets, but TSLA showed significant strength by closing near neutral today. This strength suggests that TSLA is well positioned for a turnaround this week, which is also suggested by the lower volume and the propensity of the stock to head back toward the green after every dip today.
The biggest threat this week is macro weakness. Assuming the macros settle down a bit, TSLA looks ready to resume its march up. Judging by Tesla's strength today, the first day of that recovery could be a big one. If you are someone who has the luxury of spending trading hours in front of a computer, congratulations, because we are now at a logical buy-back-in point that is well below 371. If you're like me and decided to sit out this dip because of the large climb many of us expect is imminent, we should see that turnaround tomorrow or very soon.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has descended enough to get within the range of dips that @bdy0627 and other technically-oriented traders see as historically minimal dips following this type of climb. Take a look at what a nice setup we have for the coming climb. The upper bollinger band is just a sliver under 382, which gives lots of headroom for a quick run up to and above the upper bb. The blue 50 day moving average is approaching the red 200 DMA, getting ready for a golden cross, and we're still loaded up with significantly more than 30 million shares sold short. Whispers from Tesla employees continue to suggest that Tesla is going to meet or exceed its end of June M3 production goals. Also, check out this www.electrek.co article from today about the lead material flow person at the gigafactory tweeting (but later taking it down) that Tesla had achieved 5K/wk production rate already. Here's a quote from the electrek article:
"In an email to employees earlier this month, CEO Elon Musk laid out a few specific areas that still represent bottlenecks for Tesla to achieve its 5,000 units per week target.
He said that all areas are producing at over 3,500 units per week, but he added the paint shop, General Assembly line 3, General Assembly line 4, End of Line, and Module Zone 4 at Gigafactory 1 all need 'radical improvements'."
So, we continue to see evidence that the ramp to 5K M3/wk is looking very good if you consider the tweets from Elon regarding GA lines 3 and 4 and the tweet from the Gigafactory materials person. I would consider this macro-restraint of a TSLA recovery today to be a gift to longs who regret not going in deeper before the coming 5K/wk M3 run-up.
Conditions:
* Dow down 328 (1.33%)
* NASDAQ down 161(2.09%)
* TSLA 333.01, down 0.62 (0.19%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 68.03, down 0.55 (0.80%)
* Percent of Tesla selling by shorts: 31.1%
Last edited:
Looks like we may have bottomed out from this last dip. My thoughts are that many longs who sold during the dip were waiting for a signal that the dip had bottomed out and this afternoon's climb was the signal they needed to get back in. We'll see tomorrow.
Looking at today's NASDAQ chart, you can see in the morning today TSLA showed some correlation with the NASDAQ, which boittomed out at about 10:45am today. TSLA bottomed later, but as the NASDAQ climbed, so did TSLA. It looks like shorts tried to cap at 335, and then at 340, but both caps failed and TSLA marched higher. By the time the NASDAQ started descending a bit after 1pm, TSLA had taken on a life of its own and ran upwards on bottomed-out-and-heading-higher-rocket-fuel without regard to the NASDAQ.
Consider this clue that a rally or dip has reached the end of the line. I call it the dance of uncertainty. Here is the daily chart for Friday, June 15, the day TSLA reached 358 in the rally. Notice that neither the bulls nor the bears could pull TSLA much in either direction. The stock lacked the confidence to run much in either direction. In my mind, this is what the top of a rally or the bottom of a dip often looks like. The reason TSLA didn't peak on June 15 was that over the weekend of June 16-17 Elon issued his prediction that TSLA short positions would "explode" in 3 weeks. I think the rise to 371 was surely because of this catalyst for both shorts and longs to buy that day. It was purely an opinion, though, and so the stock began its unwinding on Tuesday, June 19 instead of the 18th.
Now, look at yesterday's trading, which also looks like the dance of uncertainty after a rather rapid drop in SP. This type of lack of conviction to climb or descend suggested to me that today might be a turnaround day.
Finally, I have thought about the post by the Gigafactory manager that Tesla had reached 5,000/wk production rate, and then the tweet quickly disappeared. I now give this post low credibility since the manager is still employed with Tesla, probably wouldn't knowingly break his nondisclosure agreement, and so a hacking of his twitter account probably is a more likely explanation. Note: I still believe Tesla will break 5K/wk when they announce in early July. There are just too many employee leaks of good numbers to ignore at this point.
With a lack of solid information on the Model 3 ramp, TSLA is being influenced by macros in a higher than normal fashion, and so let's hope the macros smile on us tomorrow in order to cement the trend to a climb.
Conditions:
* Dow up 30 (0.12%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.39%)
* TSLA 342.00, up 8.99 (2.70%)
* TSLA volume 7.4M shares
* Oil 70.72, up 0.19 (0.27%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 34.4%
Last edited:
Nice climb into close in after-hours trading. That's a good clue TSLA opens in the green tomorrow.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
you were right bud! despite downturn in nasdaq $TSLA holding up well. if we close this month and quarter strong that would only enhance the case for further price appreciation starting next week
Today was yet another down day for the macros and yet another day when TSLA showed strength against these headwinds and managed to close up a few dollars. All the tech stocks I follow closed down. Looking at the chart, you can see that any time TSLA starts climbing steeply, it runs quickly up, most likely because algobots are franticly buying. The run ups are steeper than the dips, and that's a good thing because it shows more fear of missing the rise than of being subjected to a fall.
Please note the pathetic mandatory morning dip and how quickly it was dispatched.
Today the NASDAQ rose slowly until about 10:45am, at which point it began a descent into close. Looking at TSLA, you cam see descending stairsteps through the day that followed the NASDAQ's descent, but in a more positive fashion. Macros seem to be the biggest headwind this week, and if they become positive again, expect TSLA to enjoy a very nice day.
We now have two vastly different sources of information about Tesla's Model 3 ramp: information coming from within Tesla itself, and information coming from the doubting media that paints Tesla in a very negative light. Eamples:
Q2 Production
* Goldman analyst David Tamberino continued his "sell" rating for TSLA and warned that Tesla would deliver only about 22,000 vehicles in Q2, compared to 28,000 expected.
* Elon Musk issued an email memo to employees pushing back against Goldman's statement. He said a "Rude awakening" awaits Goldman's analyst
Production Problems
* A Bloomberg video casts doubts upon Tesla's abilities to reach its 5K/wk goal and suggests that any car that passes through the temporary tent structure is likely to be a flawed product.
* Tesla owners have been speaking within our own circles about fit and finish all along. The tendency right now has been tighter and tighter tolerances being observed in recent Model 3s. Further, no major structural parts are created in the tent. There is no justification to Bloomberg's claim that vehicles that pass beneath the tent will be substandard vehicles.
Reaching the M3 Production Target
* Bloomberg's M3 production estimator has been all over the map with estimates. It is currently showing 2,831 Model 3s/wk
* Elon's comments about Goldman's estimates suggest confidence that Tesla is going to produce this quarter. Leaks from multiple employees suggests that Tesla's achieving 5K/wk is in the bag and the only question now is how high above this number will be demonstrated before the numbers are released.
Bottom Line
The media has now strayed so far away from information that Tesla is suggesting and Tesla owners are surmising that two totally different sets of opinions are being cemented in the final days before the end of the month. Elon sounds confident, huge numbers of Model 3s are being trucked out of the Fremont lot each day, and quality of the Model 3s we're looking at is great. Tesla may indeed be delaying some deliveries until the first week of July in order to avoid tripping the 200,000th vehicles sold in the U.S. before the beginning of the 3rd quarter, for reasons of tax credit expiration date. No wonder longs who follow TMC and other sources of info from Tesla are bullish. OTOH, shorts are typically listening to the media, and they're likely to lose large sums of money (again) because the news they're reading is quite biased. The good news for longs is that when 5k/wk is announced, there are 30+million shares sold short that will energize the run up in the SP.
Looking at the percentage of selling by shorts, we see a gradual picking up of short-selling, but numbers are so low that longs typically overpower the shorts by afternoon and allow rallies to proceed. Remember that the effectiveness of manipulations by shorts is dependent to a large extent on the number of shorts playing the manipulation game that day. The more shorting, the more likelihood of pushing the SP down and making money on the manipulations.
Looking at the technical chart, the upper bollinger band has stabilized around 381-2, which will allow for a nice run-up when 5K production rate is announced. The 50 DMA is now only about $9 away from the 200 DMA and looking ready fo execute the golden cross. Meanwhile, the lower bb is zooming upward. The transition from a downtrend to an uptrend is quite pronounced.
Everything we see for the remainder of the week is investors positioning for the production and delivery numbers.
Conditions:
* Dow down 166 (0.68%)
* NASDAQ down 117 (1.54%)
* TSLA 344.50, up 2.50 (0.73%)
* TSLA volume 8.2M shares
* Oil 72.46, down 0.30 (0.41%)
Last edited:
The macros were up and providing tailwinds today, which led to TSLA rising more than $10 for much of the day. Two interesting events then happened. At 2:47pm more than 152,000 shares traded hands in 1 minute, prompted by one yuge buy order. It could have been two financial institutions doing a transaction during market hours because the price did not budge much. Then around 3:15pm selling picked way up and TSLA lost $5.
It turns out that the reason for the selloff was a Reuters article (a notorious distributor of FUD) quoting a Tesla employee as stating that Tesla is still far short of producing enough Model 3s to reach the 5K/wk goal at month's end. The problem with this post was not only does it run counter to other employee reports of robust production, it contains identifiable lies. For example, the article included (referring to General Asssembly line 4, under the tent), Often, those cars have to be reworked, said the worker who provided the Wednesday figure. “It's a makeshift area," the worker said. The problem with this statement is that no general assembly areas are involved with fit and finish, the issues that sometimes require reworking.Rather, a GA line is where items such as seats and wheels are attached, and having these steps taking place in a temporary structure poses no threats to the quality of the finished product. Because of this obvious effort to snub Tesla, I cannot give any credence to the rest of the worker's claims. When FUD like this is launched, there are usually traders alerted to its coming arrival who benefit tremendously through short-term bets. Percent of TSLA selling by shorts is up noticeably from yesterday, so some of them may have been in on the FUD bonanza. We play in a dishonest casino, my friends, so be wary of short-term bets.
Also, huge numbers of M3 dual-motor and performance M3 future owners have just received invites to configure in the past couple days. Tens of thousands of reservation holders are involved, and if the number configuring in Q2 reaches 100,000, that will be an extra 250 million of cash in the bank for Tesla before quarter's end. Nice.
BTW, I just yesterday configured a dual-motor M3 in blue for delivery here in Hawaii a few months from now. Just doing my part ; ) . My guess is that when TSLA runs to a new ATH, many TSLA investors will consider purchasing a Tesla with a portion of their gains. Cha-ching!
Conditions:
* Dow up 98 (0.41%)
* NASDAQ up 59 (0.79%)
* TSLA 349.93, up 5.43 (1.58%)
* TSLA volume 8.2M shares
* Oil 73.26, up 0.50 (0.69%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 39.1%
Last edited:
Welcome to the waiting game, longs. There's much on the table at the moment and the stock is behaving more like it does shortly before an earnings report than before a delivery report. At stake is nothing less than whether Tesla has yet hit a production rate on Model 3 that allows it to now become profitable and cash flow positive. The difference between longs and shorts in this waiting game is that if Tesla announces 5K/wk M3 production, it is effectively game over for the shorts. If for some reason Tesla falls short, it's a dip, followed by a rise when that mark is hit, so we're on the right side of this bet.
Trading today was relatively light, with a correlation between TSLA and the NASDAQ's trading. The fade into close we saw with TSLA was a delayed reaction to the NASDAQ's fade which began earlier, about 3pm. THe delivery and production reports could come as late as July 5 (since Wednesday the 4th is a U.S. holiday and July 1 is a Sunday). This quarter, there's some inspiration to delay the report because I expect yuge deliveries in early July as Tesla lets the 200,000th U.S. delivery take place. Elon might wish to make reference to those deliveries.
The NASDAQ had a fade into the close today, which eventually affected TSLA trading
Meanwhile, Ihor Dusaniwsky's data suggests that short interest has stabilized at a shade under 35 million shares. This is a huge short interest when you consider how high the stock already is compared to its recent lows and with the potential for substantial good news just around the corner.
For the week, TSLA closed at 342.95, up 9.32 from last Friday's 333.63. This weekend we will have used up two of the weeks until Elon's proclaimed short squeeze of the century. I trust he has plans to bring that claim to fruition. Let's hope that Tesla's execution and current politics (China trade war) allow Elon's prediction to come true to the fullest extent possible. Have a good weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 55 (0.23%)
* NASDAQ up 7 (0.09%)
* TSLA 342.95, down 6.98 (1.99%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 74.25, up 0.80 (1.09%)
Last edited:
Would Elon be making short jokes if production and deliveries looked bad? I don't think so.
Similar threads
- Locked
