Elon could just ask his friends at Google (Serge and Larry) to pony up for 1 or 2 million shares a piece and really have some fun.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
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Elon could just ask his friends at Google (Serge and Larry) to pony up for 1 or 2 million shares a piece and really have some fun.
So I have to ask, with today's big gains, what was today's percent of TSLA selling by shorts? Were the shorts still throwing their money at TSLA?
Short percentage of TSLA selling fell to 51% today. Trying to make money manipulating TSLA on a day such as today is truly pissing into the wind.I suspect you had the "let's kill Tesla" gang doing their best to minimize the damage today, but when longs are confident and buying like this, no manipulation is going to stop the stock from rising.I also expect that even with 51% of selling by shorts, we saw minor net covering rather than net shorting, referencing Ihor's numbers in my earlier post today.
I’m wondering to what extent - effectively, how far in the future - can Index Funds pre-position themselves so that they hold the appropriate amount of shares in each of the indices they are mandated to mirror.
The above refers, of course, to the imminent (we hope) inclusion of TSLA in, most importantly, the S&P500. WHEN that happens, then as a $55-65bn market cap company, they will be at about #50 with something like a 1.5% share of the Index. I have not delved into the S&P since 2013 and the above #s are from that memory....whoever has good ‘net speed and can more easily look into the index make-up will, I hope, provide the correct numbers.
At any rate, as has been discussed a fair number of times of the past years, the ‘natural purchasing’ AND the concomitant forced holding of TSLA shares these behemoth funds will sop up and take out of circulation will amount to a very handsome fraction of TSLA float. So...the earlier such a fund can create its TSLA position the better off it will be; however, there are by definition some limits as to how much any fund can deviate - even through such understandable activity - from the makeup of its designated index. One week? I’m sure that’s okay. Within a calendar quarter? Perhaps, I would think. During a prior quarter? I would suspect and hope not, else there would be a match-up disconnect when such a fund presents its quarterly results.
Now, if I understand the rational consensus, TSLA oughtn’t make it into the S&P until 3Q18’s results are in the bag. If this is correct, then such portfolio positioning would not - per the prior paragraph’s logic - start to occur until....when? End 3Q? Day 1 of 4Q?
Nonetheless, funds that are not lockstep tied to an Index should, in my opinion, front run the Index funds and load up before those legally are able to purchase. As well as should you, should me, and that other small investor behind that tree......
The above refers, of course, to the imminent (we hope) inclusion of TSLA in, most importantly, the S&P500. WHEN that happens, then as a $55-65bn market cap company, they will be at about #50 with something like a 1.5% share of the Index. I have not delved into the S&P since 2013 and the above #s are from that memory....whoever has good ‘net speed and can more easily look into the index make-up will, I hope, provide the correct numbers.
At any rate, as has been discussed a fair number of times of the past years, the ‘natural purchasing’ AND the concomitant forced holding of TSLA shares these behemoth funds will sop up and take out of circulation will amount to a very handsome fraction of TSLA float. So...the earlier such a fund can create its TSLA position the better off it will be; however, there are by definition some limits as to how much any fund can deviate - even through such understandable activity - from the makeup of its designated index. One week? I’m sure that’s okay. Within a calendar quarter? Perhaps, I would think. During a prior quarter? I would suspect and hope not, else there would be a match-up disconnect when such a fund presents its quarterly results.
Now, if I understand the rational consensus, TSLA oughtn’t make it into the S&P until 3Q18’s results are in the bag. If this is correct, then such portfolio positioning would not - per the prior paragraph’s logic - start to occur until....when? End 3Q? Day 1 of 4Q?
Nonetheless, funds that are not lockstep tied to an Index should, in my opinion, front run the Index funds and load up before those legally are able to purchase. As well as should you, should me, and that other small investor behind that tree......
pz1975
Active Member
According to this article, AAPL, being at $1 trillion valuation now, makes up 4% of the total S&P market value. Thus the S&P must have a total market value of around $25 trillion. If TSLA entered at $60 billion, it would be worth approximately 0.24% of the total index.
Here's how Apple's $1 trillion market cap stacks up against the rest of the S&P 500
Here's how Apple's $1 trillion market cap stacks up against the rest of the S&P 500
...There’s always one in every class who skews the curve....
This is an excellent point. Inclusion in the S&P 500 is inevitable after Tesla demonstrates sustainable profitability, and why should funds wait until that time to pick up their Tesla shares? Why not do so early while they are still at a discount? The market likes to anticipate good things to come and get a jump on the next investor. Looking forward to how this pans out. Lots of buying by funds could be the catalyst to get the stock running high enough so that shorts are forced to sell in a squeeze, and this is of course an attractive scenario for us longs.
bdy0627
Active Member
I thought it was projected to be after Q1 2019 ER that TSLA would be added to S&P 500. Neroden had some posts on this a few months ago. IIRC, it takes several consecutive quarters of profits. According to this article, it's 5 quarters (not exactly sure if all 5 have to be profitable, or just the whole):
How Does A Stock Get Added To The S&P 500?
Rules are here:
https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf
Should be profitable the previous quarter, and should be profitable over the sum of the previous 4 quarters.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
And considering the history I think the only shot is Q2 '18 - Q1 '19 that total 4Q positive and the last 3 are + quarters. Hence addition would be in Q2 '19.
On the S&P500 issue, I should be clearer and say "sustained" profitability, which implies multiple quarters. Yes, 2019 looks like the year when TSLA will be added to the S&P 500, but progress in that direction will lead to speculation of a rise and investors buying prior to the actual event to take advantage of the event.
Friday's report will come on Saturday this week.
Friday was consolidation day after that massive move on Thursday. Shorts didn't take the day off, and we saw what appears to be a mandatory morning dip, two successful efforts to keep TSLA from running away before noon, and a game of whack-the-mole for the rest of the day. With TSLA still well above the upper bollinger band, consolidation at this level is a good preparation for moving higher. Volume picked way up in the final 30 minutes, as expected, and whether you believe there's a shorts vs long tug-of-war going on or an interaction between market makers who wrote ITM puts vs those who wrote expiring ITM calls, it was an exciting time.
Manipulation by shorts has dropped way down from early in the week, showing 50.76% TSLA selling by shorts on Friday
Looking at the tech chart, things get a bit more interesting. with the upper bb playing catch up and coming withing $4 of TSLA. When there's a rapid climb, such as the climb at the far left side of the chart, TSLA can pull the upper bb along with it, but if we are to see a slow climb for a while, getting the upper bb above the SP gives the big dog traders more comfort in their buying.
Where do we go from here? We've already seen some analyst upgrades and we're going to see more. This YouTube segment of a CNBC interview with Colin Rush of Oppenheimer and Robert Cihra of Guggenheim suggests at least one previously neutral or bearish analyst turning bullish to join the other analyst. Both are expecting earnings of almost $19/share in 2020 or 2021 and one suggested a X30 multiplier and then working the value of the stock back two years to get his $430 price target. A little back of the napkin math gives me $19x30= $570 value in 2020 and then discounting backwards from there. Bottom line is that we're going to see some price target upgrades ahead, which should get the SP running higher. One of the analysts said that although Musk sometimes is too optimistic on long-term projections, Tesla is typically pretty good at projecting less than 2 quarters ahead, and we're already 1 month into Q3. Here's the link:
So, what do the shorts think? They are, of course, in disbelief and don't expect to see profits in Q3. Many are waiting for the "inevitable" dip in TSLA so that they can cover at a lower price. Meanwhile, I suspect there's a good number of conservative longs who were waiting for the good news from the Q2 ER before jumping back into TSLA, but many of them missed the opportunity to buy at the desired price and they too are waiting for a better entry point. The bottom line is that if you have both shorts and longs waiting for a better entry point on a dip, that dip isn't going to be very deep and may not happen at all. There's just too much interest in buying. If any dip doesn't go deep enough to inspire shorts to jump off the train, then we're going to carry a really big load of shorts into the rise to a new ATH and it'll be a thing of beauty to watch the stock action unfold.
As always, watch the fundamentals of Tesla to ensure the company is executing in a way that will give us the 3Q profit and positive cash flow we longs need. Try not to time the runup too close in because we all know by now how delays are a common occurrence with this company.
For the week, TSLA closed at 348.17, up 50.99 from last week's 297.18. Not bad at all. Enjoy your weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 136 (0.%)
* NASDAQ up 9 (0.%)
* TSLA 348.17, down 1.37 (%)
* TSLA volume 13.5M shares
* Oil 68.49, down 0.47 (0.60%) Note: Saturday numbers
*Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 50.76% (volumebot.com)
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With percentages added
Conditions:
* Dow up 136 (0.54%)
* NASDAQ up 9 (0.12%)
* TSLA 348.17, down 1.37 (0.39%)
* TSLA volume 13.5M shares
* Oil 68.49, down 0.47 (0.60%) Note: Saturday numbers
*Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 50.76% (volumebot.com)
Conditions:
* Dow up 136 (0.54%)
* NASDAQ up 9 (0.12%)
* TSLA 348.17, down 1.37 (0.39%)
* TSLA volume 13.5M shares
* Oil 68.49, down 0.47 (0.60%) Note: Saturday numbers
*Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 50.76% (volumebot.com)
Over the weekend we saw little in the way of FUD, Tesla taking out another 11,000+ Model 3 VINs, and Bloomberg showing 5500 Model 3s/wk being produced at present. Very nice prelude to Monday's trading.
Today was a truly odd day of trading. A mandatory morning dip, followed by a climb to the vicinity of 355 made sense, and then we saw what appeared to be a short-selling push to the red/green line and a game of whack-the-mole for most of the day. Moreso than on Friday, though, as the stock approached the traditionally low-volume hour into close, selling began, which led to a $7 dip for the day. All appearances are that the typical manipulations by shorts are underway and yet...
Today short percentage of selling absolutely plunged to 30.54%. Do I believe that the numbers have dropped this dramatically? No. I have never seen such a dip ever, and it especially makes no sense to see such a dip on a day when manipulations appear to be taking place with the stock price. (or any other day, with the exception of TSLA climbing to the moon after epic news).
I'm thinking shorts know which exchanges the FINRA and volumebot.com data is taken from and they steered clear of these exchanges in order to give the appearance that shorts could not have been involved in the SP movements today.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that TSLA was nearing a close within the bollinger bands prior to the final-hour sell-off. The good news is that TSLA has now gained some headroom so that when it turns around it'll be able to climb more easily.
Tesla's 10-Q was released earlier in the day, but no market reaction took place, suggesting no real surprises. I'm thinking the dip at the end of the day is a bit too late to be 10-Q related. In other news, Tesla bonds recovered about 5% of their values after the 2Q ER.
The shorts are pretty desperate to knock TSLA down a bit to get a better exit point for those who want out now, so we're likely to see various efforts employed toward that end. Once Tesla demonstrates that it has defeated this dip, however, I suspect buyers will indeed march back in.
Conditions:
* Dow up 40 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.61%)
* TSLA 341.99, down 6.18 (1.78%)
* TSLA volume 8.3M shares
* Oil 69.05, up 0.56 (0.82%)
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Sudre
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