Part 1 was awesome. Guesses for what will be in part 2?

[geoffreak]

An upgraded battery will likely cost Tesla at most $3,000 (20kWh @ $150/kWh) whereas a simplified production may save at most $50-100 (and that's being generous). I really don't understand how anyone could assume that simplified production could get anywhere close to making up battery costs without ignoring reality.

Selling as a software unlock on the S is Tesla's way of saying they get bigger margins by selling it as a $3k+ item on a small portion of cars than they lose from producing it. That's one thing with 5kWh where the cost is under $1k and it is on a car where a $3k option is a cheap option, and another thing altogether on a much cheaper car 4x the difference!

 

[malcolm]

...doing this would absolutely destroy margins.

Whose? Yours or your competitors?

Yes the battery is the most expensive component of the car, but far more so for manufacturers without the means to make their own.

 

[malcolm]

$150/kWh? GM were paying that last October.

Not ignoring reality. Average Model 3 purchase expected to be $42k

 

[geoffreak]

$150/kWh? GM were paying that last October.

Not ignoring reality. Average Model 3 purchase expected to be $42k

$150 is a conservative estimate. That's why I said at most.

What on earth does the average purchase price have to do with battery software unlocks? It just means some people will pick more options than others. It has no bearing on the margins these cars will have. The margins are what allow for a software unlock of hardware.

 

[theboom1]

Autopilot 2.0 - Pathway to full autonomous driving. Elon said that full autonomous was two years away during an interview with Fortune in December 2015. This lines up almost exactly with the ship date of the Model 3. I think the lack of a driver dashboard and HUD is a teaser to this expanded functionality. Eventually, Model 3 owners may even be able to remove the steering wheel and pedals, such that the cabin is symmetrical.

Home Wall Connector/Supercharger 2.0 - The automatic "snake" charging cable to complete full autonomous parking and charging. Potentially, even faster supercharging times.

Additional Configurations - Official specs for larger battery packs, Dual motor configurations, and software enabled options (e.g. Ludicrous mode)

Smartphone/Infotainment Integration - Speaking in Hong Kong, Elon said they are pivoting away from a Tesla SDK, and moving more towards app mirroring. I envision an integration like Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. This could be announced earlier at a Model S update event.

Tesla Autonomous Valet - The ability to summon your Model 3 from far distances. For example, if one travels to an all-day meeting, the Model 3 could drive itself to the nearest Supercharger, re-charge, and park. Then when he/she is ready to leave the meeting, he/she can summon the Model 3 from the Supercharger station. The biggest hurdle to this use case will be regulatory since the car will be operating without any human passenger.

Why the hell would you want to take the stearing wheel and the pedals out of the car? Do you know how much utility that would take away from your car? Or that you won't be able to use that "ludicrous" speed?

 

[esk8mw]

$150/kWh? GM were paying that last October.

Not ignoring reality. Average Model 3 purchase expected to be $42k

$145 was GM's cell cost, not pack cost. Pack costs for GM are far higher.

Tesla recently confirmed current pack costs are under $190. This will come down significantly (perhaps 30%) when the GF is online.

 

[esk8mw]

Why the hell would you want to take the stearing wheel and the pedals out of the car? Do you know how much utility that would take away from your car? Or that you won't be able to use that "ludicrous" speed?

Ideally all the driving stuff (wheel, pedals etc.) would be retractable. Available for manual mode but invisible for full autonomy mode - extra space to relax, sleep, work, watch tv, whatever.

 

[JeffK]

Ideally all the driving stuff (wheel, pedals etc.) would be retractable.

But how long would it take to come back out in case of emergency...?

 

[deonb]

I think people way overestimate the cost savings of reducing battery configurations. The battery is the most expensive component of the car, and doing this would absolutely destroy margins.

It's also the simplest thing to make in multiple configurations (just put in less modules), and the easiest component on the car to install.

The engineering overhead of having 2 or 3 pack configurations over a million vehicles will be pennies on the pack.

The most expensive item is the marketing & web site design overhead of offering different options to customers in a way they can understand. But even that is amortized over millions of vehicles.

 

[malcolm]

What on earth does the average purchase price have to do with battery software unlocks? It just means some people will pick more options than others. It has no bearing on the margins these cars will have. The margins are what allow for a software unlock of hardware.

Which is where i'm left with (even more) guessing. I have no idea what margins Tesla command for any vehicle. Common sense/armchair engineering/traditional manufacturing all say it can't be done. You make your biggest margins on your top models. What's true for BMW (or whoever) is true for Tesla. End of story. And maybe lithium ore price rises already mean that it is.

Or maybe if Elon is already talking about the possibility of a $20k vehicle, a $35k one gives them more of a margin than we expect.

But, yeah, guessing is cheap

 

[JeffK]

Keep in mind the gen 4 comment was an offhand comment with the assumption things will be cheaper in the future.

Margins are above 20% on the Model S and X heading toward 30% in the next year.

 

[esk8mw]

But how long would it take to come back out in case of emergency...?

I think you may be too focused on the current state of Autopilot. When full autonomy is here, the expectation will be that you can tell the car where to go and go take a nap. There will not be any "be prepared to take over in case of emergency" when this is rolled out. I'm pretty confident that any steering wheel/pedal retraction capabilities will not be functional until full autonomy is up and running.

 

[JeffK]

Heck I'm always in "be prepared to take over in case of emergency" mode when I'm not personally behind the wheel. I'm sweating bullets when the girlfriend drives.

 

[malcolm]

"All versions of Model 3 have the SAME battery." -- (c) Malcolm 2016

LOL

Well I guess if you're trying to get 400,000 vehicles out the door, it makes life a whole lot easier if a hardware upgrade involves just a credit card and an OTA download.

But then my inner twelve year-old pipes up with: "What about the trunk badge? How will anyone else know?"

*sigh* I guess I still don't want to be unplugged from the Matrix

 

[Bimbels]

I want a KITT car. With a Siri/Alexa type interaction for commands for all the cars functions, that we can program to the name of our car. That should be easy.

 

[HillCountryFun]

Here are my thoughts:

• The "almost production" version of the driver controls and instrumentation
• Model Y - CUV based on same platform (Hoping on this one)
• Final body panels and trim
• Updated interior trim
• Additional wheel options

They will of course add:

• Next gen autopilot
• More range and or larger battery pack
• Other options

But, the additions directly above will NOT be part of the Part 2 reveal and will simply come after Model 3 is in production.

IMHO