Part 2 of Unveil - Uber-type ability to rent out your car

[Omer]

It's clear to me the economics moving forward point towards the elimination of personal cars in favor of on-demand uber type driverless cars. The cost to own a vehicle will be prohibitively high relative to just ordering a self driving car whenever people travel due to the far greater utilization percentage for shared cars.

I think everyone sees this and are therefore competing to end up with a self driving uber type fleet. The massive advantage Tesla will have is the ability to transition without massive balance sheet absorption of millions of cars. Uber, Apple, Google will all need to build, buy or lease mass quantities of self driving cars. Tesla on the other hand is purposefully making autodriving hardware standard in all their cars. That's because the entire fleet can be flipped to act as Tesla's mobility fleet on demand and gradually through different cities/states as the specific laws allow for full autonomy.

I believe Part 2 of the Model 3 unveil will be Elon Musk letting everyone know that all Tesla's will be able to be rented out as soon as full autonomy is legal in the owner's geographic vicinity. So anyone ordering a Model 3 will actually be able to earn a fee for renting out their car by the hour/mile. The car will be able to drive away when not in use by owner and pick up other drivers and pay the owner a fee. This all won't be ready by the end of next year but Elon will let everyone know the hardware is in place. I believe by 2018 they will switch all Tesla's from the current autopilot hardware to the newer full suite hardware that will eventually be capable of full autonomy when the software/legal structure is ready.

 

[boyelectric]

While I think many of us can agree that this (and many similar aspects of the future of transportation) is on the horizon, I doubt it would be included with Part 2. Autonomous driving, yes.. as part 2.

That being said, for quite a while now I have been pointing out the exact same things that you posted above, to everybody I know. The writing is on the wall.

One thing that is certain to capture legislators interest, IMHO, is that autonomous driving will allow for an easy doubling of the carrying capacity of the existing infrastructure. I know some politicians, and have been telling them this, every chance I get.

 

[yesup]

Even if your vision turns out to be true in the future, Tesla certainly won't push this idea.
Because the car market, as we know it, would collapse. Who would buy a new car any more?

 

[Jason Bourne]

You can pry my personal car, that I don't loan, share or rent to anyone, out of my cold dead hand.

Maybe some segments of society will evolve to this model, but I have a hard time seeing other auto enthusiasts being willing to agree to this. Speaking for myself but projecting to other auto enthusiasts, I love my car. It's not solely a method of transportation. It's an extension of my personality and a source of joy and excitement. This is evident in all the people who customize their cars, show their cars and participate in social groups with owners of similar cars.

Maybe it becomes an option package, or a special build configuration (like Ford does for police cars). But company or organization that would try to force me in to the model that you describe will not be able to count me as a customer/member.

 

[cdub]

Why would I want to do that?

 

[erthquake]

Why would I want to do that?

It might change with the young generation. Why would parents go through the expense and worry of their teenagers learning to drive when they can call a car to pick their kids up and take them to the movies? A group of high schoolers can go out for the night and the parents don't have to worry about anyone driving recklessly, intoxicated, or while texting.

That will be the paradigm in which the kids grow up, and they will continue that into and beyond adulthood.

Just a thought.

 

[pinski]

You can pry my personal car, that I don't loan, share or rent to anyone, out of my cold dead hand.

Maybe some segments of society will evolve to this model, but I have a hard time seeing other auto enthusiasts being willing to agree to this. Speaking for myself but projecting to other auto enthusiasts, I love my car. It's not solely a method of transportation. It's an extension of my personality and a source of joy and excitement. This is evident in all the people who customize their cars, show their cars and participate in social groups with owners of similar cars.

Maybe it becomes an option package, or a special build configuration (like Ford does for police cars). But company or organization that would try to force me in to the model that you describe will not be able to count me as a customer/member.

Well said. I agree wholeheartedly.

 

[yesup]

It might change with the young generation. Why would parents go through the expense and worry of their teenagers learning to drive when they can call a car to pick their kids up and take them to the movies?

But why would Tesla want this to happen?
They would be selling A LOT less cars than they can today.

 

[erthquake]

But why would Tesla want this to happen?
They would be selling A LOT less cars than they can today.

It's going to happen eventually, whether it's from Tesla or from someone else. Tesla might have the best AI/hardware which they can then license to other manufacturers as well as bussing and trucking companies. Plus, who's in the best position to make and sell the batteries? Tesla.

Remember too that Musk is trying to change the world. If it was all about money, would he be open sourcing all of their EV-related technology?

 

[ecarfan]

I believe Part 2 of the Model 3 unveil will be Elon Musk letting everyone know that all Tesla's will be able to be rented out as soon as full autonomy is legal in the owner's geographic vicinity. So anyone ordering a Model 3 will actually be able to earn a fee for renting out their car by the hour/mile. The car will be able to drive away when not in use by owner and pick up other drivers and pay the owner a fee.

Even Elon admits, on the record many times, that Tesla is several years away from being able to offer full autonomous driving capability, and even then the laws will have to be changed to allow such cars on the road.

I do not believe that Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal will include an announcement such as you describe. If that happens it is much farther out in the future.

 

[EVnut]

Why would I want to do that?

Money. Less damage to the environment.

Otherwise... I guess you wouldn't.

 

[tfna]

Even Elon admits, on the record many times, that Tesla is several years away from being able to offer full autonomous driving capability, and even then the laws will have to be changed to allow such cars on the road.

I do not believe that Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal will include an announcement such as you describe. If that happens it is much farther out in the future.

Pretty sure Musk's most-optimistic timeline is now 3 years - down from 5.. not including regulation. Still, very probable that the redundant hardware that he believes is essential to full autonomy will be in the model 3. The rest is arguably software.

 

[jerry33]

Why would I want some stranger (and perhaps their chocolate eating kids) sitting in my car? You're life would revolve around cleaning the car after every rental.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Personally I think this would be huge, your car could become an asset if required. I suspect many people would by for this reason alone, I would like to have the option to set my car loose to make me $$ while I'm on vacation.

In general higher asset utilization rates make for a more efficient society.

 

[nebster]

When I first read this thread when it was posted, I was in absolute shock that there weren't more comments. The idea seemed so far fetched, yet the more I thought about it the more I felt this would happen.

And it did. You correctly predicted what Elon would do, albeit in the form of the Tesla 2.0 reveal instead of the Model Part 2 reveal.

 

[Mad Hungarian]

When I first read this thread when it was posted, I was in absolute shock that there weren't more comments. The idea seemed so far fetched, yet the more I thought about it the more I felt this would happen.

And it did. You correctly predicted what Elon would do, albeit in the form of the Tesla 2.0 reveal instead of the Model Part 2 reveal.

Yes, props to the OP for calling this one. I'm really curious to see who'd be willing to let their car go out un-escorted though, I think this calls for a poll...

 

[S'toon]

Yes, props to the OP for calling this one. I'm really curious to see who'd be willing to let their car go out un-escorted though, I think this calls for a poll...

There's one around somewhere on the board.

 

[callmesam]

Even Elon admits, on the record many times, that Tesla is several years away from being able to offer full autonomous driving capability, and even then the laws will have to be changed to allow such cars on the road.

I do not believe that Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal will include an announcement such as you describe. If that happens it is much farther out in the future.

Elon said in December 2015 that full autonomy hardware would be available in "2 years" so that coincides with production of the Model 3

 

[Mad Hungarian]

There's one around somewhere on the board.

Damn, and I just started another in the Autonomous section...

 

[S'toon]

Damn, and I just started another in the Autonomous section...

I remember because someone mentioned not wanting puke in the back of their car, which made sense to me.