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Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by paydirt76, Jun 15, 2020.

  1. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    INTRO TO GUIDE
    This is for long-term investors...

    There's a huge opportunity with options that 99% of uber Tesla bulls are simply missing. If the company is grows exponentially as they have--most have reasonable confidence they will--then the investment could be best in an exponential investment vehicle. What if they pair the exponential grower with the exponential investment type? Owning the stock is the linear investment vehicle while stock options offer exponential power.

    It's possible you are using options now but still think they are "too risky" and have most of your Tesla exposure in stock. If so, read on. If you are using only options now but feel you could benefit from a greater understanding, read on. Or maybe you have all stock and are curious and open to transitioning/augmenting your investment.

    But there is a knee jerk reaction. People are programmed to think options are "too risky," and they're right too. The way that people typically use options is too risky. Either they gamble on weeklies, or they always employ a certain tactic (call selling against stock, strangle writing, collars, etc) no matter what, or they get sucked into going "All In" multiple times until they go bust. YOLO anyone?

    Yes, options can be "weapons of mass destruction" as per Warren Buffett. They definitely are ticking time bombs.

    But if stock is at $900, you don't have to tie up all $900 to get your exposure to the moves in the stock. This is the beauty or the benefit of the leverage of options.

    Options are also a way to define your risk. David Lee, investing great on these boards, has eluded to adding to his position in shares by using LEAPS. Options can be a way to grow your wealth and/or seek to profit from specific catalysts and specific timeframes.

    I have to warn you though. You have to make your own decisions. There is no golden answer. There is an option tactic I prefer right now, but that has changed in the past 6 months. I think I've found one I can live with. START with the fundamentals I am going to provide. Read each post. Comment and ask questions.

    And don't do the opposite of what I am about to say... Do. Not. Skip. To. The. Tactic!

    Be curious yet disciplined. You have to have solid fundamentals in mind. A solid foundation. But first...

    BACKGROUND
    All the learnings in this guide and posts have been gained from a friend who was a stock options market maker for 5 years at the CBOE. They are a professional investor and were lucky enough to see through the veil of media and WS lies about Tesla in April 2019. They made a fateful purchase and also invested for themselves. At first they only owned stock, then they added a position in options in a $60k Roth. The options have been changed over multiple times. They tell me that account today is 3.5--not measured in the mere thousands. This growth has been over the course of less than a year. Only 5% of the gains came from one weekly play.

    Luck? Probably... and the implications of that will be covered as well.

    Their goals are not the same as yours. Their situation and risk tolerance is different. Yet maybe there is a different way for you to think about your risk? At least a better understanding should be gained and with that comfort and peace of mind.

    START WITH A GOAL
    Simple thoughts will help guard you against getting caught up in all the minor details and dramas.

    This may sound "woo woo", but it is the crucial beginning. Before anything else, you have to start with a goal. This is your intention for the investment. It can be very simple. For them it was to start with 10% in Tesla exposure and let it play out. (10% means 10% of their investable net worth). In June 2019, the goal was 8% in stock (a certain number of shares), and added 2% more in options in order to double the number of "potential shares." They have a wife and kids and will not YOLO with this investment.

    Is your goal to keep a certain % of your net worth in Tesla?

    Around December 13 2019, after a confluence of positive news that went ignored by the media, the fateful decision was made. By this time, the Roth had 4x'd from $60k to over $240k. Some version of this thought can be powerful for you... "What if all the stock is sold, and only the gains are invested in the options, then if the options go to zero, nothing will have been lost in the lifetime investment in Tesla. Worst case, nothing gained in the investment. Best case, it could be life changing money."

    Is your goal to ride your lifetime gains in options to grow your ability to own more shares? What's possible for you if this became your goal? What are the implications for you if Tesla enters a channel for 2 years and options go to zero value?

    The goal has evolved over time as the position has grown. In mid January 2020 with stock around $500, the account had grown to $800k and the deltas to 5,500. Which means for every dollar move in the stock, the value of the options would fluctuate on average by 5,500. The goal then became "own 5,000 deltas for the next 6,000 points on the stock." What if those deltas could be held for the duration of Elon's compensation plan? That could mean walking away with 5,000 x $6,000. What if those deltas could be held until WS is (nearly) uniformly bullish (which would take many years)?

    Is your goal to make a certain amount of money in your Tesla investment?

    Your goal and the following fundamentals (and your fundamentals) are what needs to be the mantra in your mind to stay long and strong during the ups and downs. The position was not trimmed until 1/30/2020. By this point, the account had grown to over 1.5 and the deltas trimmed down to 7000. By this time the daily swings were becoming more normal.

    Your goal must be specific. It cannot be "I will own it the rest of my life no matter what, and want to make as much money as possible." This is a recipe for missed opportunity. The value of an investment always matters. Tesla bulls value the stock different from everyone else and even different from each other. When price gets disconnected from that value, you have an opportunity.

    Having a goal helps you stay disciplined. Options add leverage to an already volatile stock, making discipline difficult.

    It's OK to change your goal over time, but you have to revisit what's the worst that could happen.

    Before you read on to the next section, or the next posts. Write down your goal. Look at your lifetime gains. What if you risked a portion or all of the gains and capped your loss there? Start a journal for your investment, or a Word doc to go with your spreadsheet. Reply in this thread with your goal and/or how your goal has evolved over time. No need to be specific with dollars or share count.

    Coming Up...
    THREE FUNDAMENTALS
    WARNING ON WAITING
    EXPIRATION CHOICES
    STRIKE CHOICES
    WHEN TO MAKE CHANGES
    WHEN TO STOP
     
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  2. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    TSLA options are absurdly over-priced, as they are about half the time. Giving your hard earned money to market makers is utterly moronic.

    Buy low, sell high(in small increments starting 2026).
     
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  3. jeewee3000

    jeewee3000 Member

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    Could you also throw in a set of steak knives if we sign up to your strategy?
     
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  4. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Pretty sure he made it clear that there isn't one strategy, and that the strategy he prefers right now has evolved from what it was in the past. I prefer learning what I can from people with more knowledge and experience than I.

    You can just skip the thread if it's not valuable to you, rather than throwing steak knives.
     
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  5. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    No thanks, don't want your money. Made enough in Tesla.

    There is no offer. Sharing this knowledge for the community since the community has given so much. Best investment community ever. I could never fully repay the Tesla community.
     
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  6. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Great question!

    If Tesla options are absurdly overpriced, how did my friend 60x their Roth by owning "absurdly over-priced" options. @TheTalkingMule , your curiosity got you to this point, keep it going, you don't need to turn it off. I haven't even shared the critical fundamental (my next post) which argues why even if Implied Volatilities are trading higher than normal Historical Volatility for Tesla, the options are still vastly underpriced.

    TSLA options might look overpriced, but the stock is 4x larger than where it has typically been. Necessarily option premiums should be at least 4x than what they used to be all else equal.

    It's true that Implied Volatility is trading at 73% and short-term close-to-close Historical Volatility has averaged under 67% for recent trailing 30-day periods since 5/22/2020, but they were 70 and above for nearly a 4 month period. If someone bought calls when Elon tweeted "stock price to high imo", it didn't matter they bought at higher than average implied vols, because of the 7 week rally in share price. I will talk a little more about this in my next post.
    (source: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) - Historical Volatility (Close-to-Close) (30-Day))
     
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  7. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    On the subject of goals, the above part wasn't made abundantly clear... Let's say you are sitting on $300k of stock with a $225k gain. You may want to do options, but you also realize from time to time they don't work out.

    (1) You could set a goal of converting your stock position to either match your deltas (with stock at $1,000, $300k in stock means 300 deltas), freeing up a fair amount of cash.

    (2) You could convert the position so that you are "free riding" with options. This means that you take your "original basis" out of the position, $75k moves out to cash, and you convert the rest of the stock to options.

    or, (3) You could decide, "I want to have at least made $100k lifetime in Tesla." In this specific case, you would take out your basis ($75k) and also take out $100k to set aside lifetime profit and then invest the rest.

    Then away you go... With option 2, the "free ride" on "house money." This can work well if you share your finances with a spouse or partner. You can say "hey, we've made this much in Tesla, we only put in that much. I still believe in what the company is doing. So I took the amount we put into Tesla out as cash and we're only investing the profits going forward."
     
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  8. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    An idea you called out elsewhere is that the 90 day historical / realized volatility is significantly higher than current volatility, and thus options are currently under priced (bad for option sellers).

    I used that site you provided (as well as bookmarking it - that'll be going into my consideration when picking new positions) and I noticed that the historical IV over the 60 and 30 day window is significantly lower... .68 over last 60 days and .58 over last 30 days. These levels of IV compare quite favorably with the recent IV.


    So a few questions - why the 90 day historical IV vs. other time periods? More importantly, is there a relationship between the days to expiration of the option being considered (buy or sell) and the historical IV to take into account? For instance, I've been selling 1-2 week options. Is the 10 day or 20 day historical IV more meaningful over that time period?

    If I were selling the 30-60 day options (the next monthly, or the monthly after that), would I be more like the 30/60 day historical IV, or would I be looking at more like the 90/120 historical IV?


    I bet this is on your laundry list of things to get to :)

    Thanks
     
  9. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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  10. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Sure! I am going to address this indirectly in the next section. So instead I will address directly now...

    I would not be selling calls almost period... (there are two exceptions, selling deep ITM calls to transform a position without immediate realizing of taxable gains)

    THREE FUNDAMENTALS
    1. With how streaky Tesla is as a stock, as an option seller you're almost forced to hedge after each major move. If you wait a week, that call you sold is libel to have blown up majorly in your face. Calls are vastly underpriced because Tesla has been and is a very streaky stock. It cannot be proven, but it is believed Tesla will not act like a natural random stock while the next two conditions persist. (big items 2 & 3) Because calls are vastly underpriced, the company is growing exponentially, and options are a leveraged "exponential" investment vehicle, buying calls is the best way to take advantage of this opportunity.
      1. Even if you buy IV that is higher than the close-to-close volatility of how the stock is moving now and how it will move in the future... because of this bullish streaky-ness it doesn't matter if you overpay some on volatility.
      2. It is suspected that the weekly or monthly vol of measuring close-to-close on a weekly basis (instead of daily) or on a monthly basis has been very high over the past 6 months. This means if you go long some long term calls (or even 3-month calls), you wouldn't hedge your position every day or even every week to benefit the most.
      3. For example, the calls were rearranged on Dec 30th 2019 with a portfolio value of 300k. No hedge was made nor trimming done until January 30th 2020.
    2. Calls are vastly underpriced because the bias will routinely be to the upside (at a minimum thru S&P inclusion). Tesla should be viewed as a beach ball that is being held underwater. Wall Street currently projects Q2 2020 deliveries of 71k, and full year 2020 deliveries of 419k. This is a joke. Tesla bulls know this will be higher. Wall Street currently projects that Tesla will grow units by 25% per year over the next 5 years. With the capacity Tesla is bringing online, Tesla will have at least 1M capacity at the end of 2020 (tho Y will not yet be ramped in China), but WS is projecting Tesla deliver 1M units in 2021. Until Wall Street projects a minimum of 40% unit growth up to 50%, there will be routine upside catalysts to the stock because of the automaking business alone (without robotaxi, without batteries for energy biz, without solar tile) because Tesla is delivering by executing on their massive growth plans.
      1. This alone provides a simple bullish bias to Tesla shares going forward until the point that either WS is uniformly bullish on Tesla and/or WS projects Tesla to grow units at least 50% per year. The positive surprises continue until then. If you're selling upside calls against your long stock, especially expirations that include P&D report timeframes or earnings calls, expect to make the least you could from your long stock.
      2. Wall Street continues to underestimate improvements to capital efficiency, gross margin.
    3. There is no competition for Tesla. In fact, the competition has arrived and it's name is Tesla. Wall Street underestimates the addressable market for auto division (which is global luxury market plus the "Tesla stretch up market" from Honda/Toyota). They underestimate the dominance of for example, the Tesla Model 3 over the BMW 3 series. They wouldn't allow themselves to believe Tesla will dominate the competition in China despite having superior price, performance, convenience, safety, and total cost to Benz, BMW, and Audi. When Alex Potter of Piper Sandler simply allowed himself to realize Tesla will sell all the cars they can produce from GF3, he upgraded his price target by nearly 50%. The same opportunity is present in Europe. As Tesla bulls know, they will start with the Y to go after Europeans love for "hatchbacks" or trunks with a gate. They will "ragdoll" the existing OEM markets in China and Europe. The OEMs had their chance to get their act together.
    Other catalysts.
    4) S&P 500 Inclusion. 99% qualifying earnings inclusion probability by Jan 2022 at the latest. Each passing day inclusion looks more and more likely as a result of Q2 2020. This could cause a spike to 1,500 by mid September and then a post S&P 500 inclusion "let down" to 1,100 thereafter. If stock hit 1,500 by mid September, positions would be sold/neutralized completely.
    5) FSD feature complete. *IF* this happens and FSD is good to great, then the probability of robotaxi becomes much more likely. Maybe not the year after it, but soonish.
    The above fundamentals are focused on to dull the noise of the current dramas around Tesla (whatever they may be). Focus on the fundamentals.

    If you are a bull and think that WS is vastly underestimating Tesla deliveries and/or you believe S&P inclusion happens sooner rather than later, don't be writing upside calls. You're only costing yourself money.
     
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  11. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    I have no subscription nor login and am able to access historical volatilities. What info are you trying to get that isn't for free?
     
  12. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Took me about 5 minutes of clicking around and it stopped showing me the historical volatilities - said I needed a subscription for that. I'll go back and have another look - maybe it was something transitory.
     
  13. juanmedina

    juanmedina Active Member

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    Thanks for the thread OP. I have held Tesla stock for 5 years and I had some appreciation but nothing compared to what some people have made with options. I ventured into options during the virus dip by buying LEAPs but I sold them too soon do to inexperience and bought back stock. I bought each LEAP by selling stock (20 shares) and sold them for 28 shares; now they are worth 44 shares. I been waiting for the stock to retrace to rebuy the options around the SP that I sold them, $700-650 but I don't see this happening any time soon. Tesla is not the stock that it used to be, it doesn't seem to get taken down easily by some silly news.

    I am looking forward to read the next chapters. I want to hear more about how the options are still underpriced and what will happen with the options when Tesla joins the S&P 500 which I assume it will cause a big drop in IV.
     
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  14. JusRelax

    JusRelax Member

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    IMO, this wasn't a mistake, and is a great learning opportunity for the future.

    What you did is actually an extremely simple form of what the OP will most likely expound on in future posts: leverage down when stock price goes up, and leverage up when stock price goes down. @KarenRei was a master of this, to the point where, rather than getting free shares, she was getting free 'upgrades' to her call options with this strategy. In a volatile stock like TSLA, especially with an extremely volatile market, I believe that this is one of the best methods of making this volatility work to your advantage. Since we are so confident that the overall trajectory of the stock price is higher, and volatility is so high, we can solely play the volatility.
     
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  15. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Hey Juan,
    Probably will not be able to prove how calls are currently underpriced despite IV being higher than typical Historical Volatility (and how it is currently moving). The case was given in the THREE FUNDAMENTALS section. If spare time materializes, historical volatility may be calculated by hand to see if week-to-week closing volatility is higher or has been higher during these run ups. Not sure how to prove Tesla is more streaky than the average stock. Possibly that could be looked at vs the S&P 500. That could be figured out actually.
     
  16. EV forever

    EV forever Supporting Member

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    Many of us are feeling that the LEAP prices are too high - paging @FrankSG for comment too.
    You mentioned that while premiums are high, so is the stock price - which is true. So I calculated the premiums as % of stock price for a variety of options. Last year, thanks to reading these forums, I bought several call options in Oct-Nov timeframe. The options were cheap and I made very good returns on those. I used those as reference to compare to the prices of options currently.

    • The first table below is all the options from last year from my brokerage statement. The premiums and strike prices are calculated as percentage of the stock price on the day I purchased them.
    • The second table is prices of options if I wanted to buy these today. I have tried to keep days to expiration and strike prices as % of today's closing price similar to those back in Oct-Dec last year. The premium listed is mid-point of bid/ask for that particular option.

    Even as percentage of SP, the premiums appear to be quite high for options today. The main difference is likely volatility - I don't know how to evaluate this.

    On a different note, I did calculate my TSLA portfolio in terms of deltas - it is surprisingly high! I am happy with the number of shares for long term hold - those will not be risked or sold. But, I could possibly see myself using options to increase this further over next couple of years.

    upload_2020-6-16_18-8-32.png


    a goal of reaching 5000 deltas over the next couple of years.
     
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  17. FrankSG

    FrankSG Supporting Member

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    TSLA option premiums since February have been much, much higher than they were before. There is no question about this, and @EV forever 's table illustrates this beautifully.

    The most extreme example of this that I encountered myself were the Jun'21 900s I bought mid-January when SP was ~$500. In mid-March at the bottom of the COVID-19 dip at a SP of ~350, you'd expect these options to be down severely, perhaps as much as 70%. However, these options never went into the red, and even at bottom I was still up slightly on them, which is just absurd.

    Last weekend, as part of my MBA interviews I was interviewed by an alumni, who used to work as VP of derivatives for 7 years at a bank that is an issuer and market maker of options. We talked about options and options pricing for a bit, and he confirmed that part of the equation is expected future volatile, which he said is mostly based on past volatility. Two other factors that help them determine option prices are:
    1. In Hong Kong specifically, apparently there is volatility index that is taken into consideration. It sounded a bit like the VIX.
    2. Simple supply and demand, and how much the market is willing to pay for options.
    With regards to number 2, I know that the TSLA options market is enormous as of April this year, when I looked into how big the TSLA option market really is. However, I'm now wondering how big the TSLA options market was pre-February, and whether a large increase in TSLA options activity since then might've also influenced recent TSLA options premiums. Although I reckon that the dramatic increase in past volatility, which started in early February when the trading range was broken wide open, has been the biggest catalyst, and has made market makers adjust their calculations for expected future volatility.

    With all that being said, TSLA options premiums are high, but whether they are too high or not depends entirely on how bullish you are. I reckon the SP could double over the next 6-12 months off of H2'20 financials, so a few weeks ago when SP was $800, I thought the Jun'21 options still looked decent, and I decided to pick up some Jun'21 $1,300s.

    At the time, I thought the Jun'22s were too expensive for my liking, but I was already highly leveraged. Had I not owned any options, I would've still preferred owning some Jun'22s over being 100% invested in stock, but I would've bought less than I did in mid-January and early-April at better prices.
     
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  18. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Thank you for this EV forever, you are keeping us honest. Yes. Implied Volatilities are higher now. Leap IVs used to be about 50 at the end of 2019. This was on the high end of the old close-to-close historical volatility. Now, lowest leap IV is June 2022 at roughly 60. But the ability of Tesla to (1) go on monster streaks, and (2) very bullish tailwinds make calls an exceptional value moving forward (for now).

    If you believe in these catalysts over the next two years at minimum, then 2-year leaps may be a good transition for your stock portfolio for now (and you can switch back later). Realizing that long-term bulls in Tesla have been stung by ranges in the past, but we're not there just yet (in a range. We're about to breakout again). (that sounds crazy with stock 4x in the past year). The opportunity with a switch to leaps (say the June 2022 1200C) is to take cash off the board, have the lowest premium per day of any month, and an attainable strike). There is no need to tie up all the dollars from $0 to $700 on each share that you own.
     
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  19. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Yes volatilities are much higher than they were. Now at 70 for front months and 72 with earnings and 60 on the 2 year leaps... Beyond bullish tailwinds... Yes volatilities are supply & demand. Inclusion punters have driven up IV. YOLO traders have driven up vols. MM only care about matching supply and demand of volatilities.

    :oops:Myth that Tesla Implied Volatilities are High:oops:
    It also depends on how often you hedge. Below calculated manually in a spreadsheet. Suspicions about realized weekly volatility being higher than daily was right. Monthly close to close vol was also higher than daily.

    REALIZED VOLATILITY
    YTD Daily (close to close) Vol: 102%
    YTD Weekly (Wednesday to Wednesday) Vol: 132%
    YTD Monthly (Month End to Month End) Vol: 114%
    YTD Monthly (Mid Month to Mid Month) Vol: 149%

    This bodes VERY well for long-term option owners.
    At least until S&P inclusion blow off top is over

    In other threads people seem to be patting themselves on the back for selling IV at 111% at the bottom of the market. Or selling 70% IV recently. Don't take this as an insult. Take this as a wake up call. Look at what realized volatilities have been this year. Good God! People selling options with a week to go are selling cheap insurance. Don't take this as an insult. Take this as a wake up call. Yes, these anomalies probably disappear over time, but again there is not "one options tactic to rule them all." instead some are better than others in different environments.

    It all matters when you hedge. If you are long leaps and hedge when deltas hit a the edge of your "band". This year, that's meant a minimum of monthly adjustments. If you sold vol because of the wheel or it sounds good on paper and you didn't hedge nearly daily, you've made the least of your position.

    It is also suspected that Tesla is currently more streaky than the average, normal, fair (binomial, etc) stock.

    Work will be done to confirm, but if true, then being long options is the move and hedging weekly or less often. Good night now.

    @FrankSG @EV forever @adiggs @Lycanthrope
     
  20. FrankSG

    FrankSG Supporting Member

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    Just keep in mind that the Jun'22 $1,200s are currently trading at almost $300, so although you would double your money if the stock goes to $1,800 by then, simply holding the stock would also nearly double your money while taking on far less risk than holding Jun'22 $1,200s.

    Therefore, in order for those options to make sense at current prices, you have to be of the opinion that it's likely that the SP will go much higher than $1,800 by Jun'22, which I think is not an unreasonable opinion to have. However, if your price target for Jun'22 is more like $1,700-$2,000, I don't think those Jun'22 $1,200s are worth the extra risk you're taking on, and the stock would be a better investment.
     
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