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Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by paydirt76, Jun 15, 2020.

  1. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Ended up buying some October calls. Got very lucky, due to circumstances, was forced to buy after 3pm. Am invested alongside some folks now so cannot disclose the exact position.
     
  2. juanmedina

    juanmedina Active Member

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    Are you still planning to sell your options before the inclusion day?
     
  3. crimsondr

    crimsondr Member

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    When would we know when inclusion day is? Is there any kind of ETA?
     
  4. hershey101

    hershey101 Member

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    This makes me sad haha!
     
  5. juanmedina

    juanmedina Active Member

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    Helping the community,......not helping the community :eek:
     
  6. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    I'm happy to block you if you haven't been happy with my level of transparency in this whole thread.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  7. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    Tesla has released their 10-Q. The S&P 500 Committee would have been ready for this and have a gameplan. They may negotiate with Tesla mgmt to see if Tesla will sell some stock to the index funds (to make it easier for index funds to accumulate shares). Depending on how the negotiations go could determine whether we find out the date in a few days or a week or if we find out a date in a month or so. This is speculation on top of rumor.

    They could wait hoping that the uncertainty causes the stock price to soften in the interim.

    My opinion is it would behoove the S&P 500 index and the funds to do it as quickly as feasible. The latest I would think is they do it for a "quarter end" rebalancing (after 9/18). But I view this as improbable and worst case. It's even more improbable they would do a "staggered" inclusion (doing only 50% of what it should be this quarter, and then the rest next quarter). Even more improbable than that is they refuse to include Tesla if Tesla refuses to sell extra stock.
     
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  8. juanmedina

    juanmedina Active Member

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    Haha it was a joke ok.
     
  9. JusRelax

    JusRelax Member

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    @paydirt76, the analysis and all of the follow up execution that went along with it that you have provided has been a wealth of knowledge and I believe that many people have found it extremely helpful. Considering that your timing on your calls have been practically impeccable (even if a little luck was involved for some timing calls), anyone following you blindly would have made tons of money making the same moves as you up to this point. Of course, I would never condone that anyone blindly follow someone else's position, but the fact still remains that if someone had done so, they would have made a ton of money.

    Even moreso - you provided all of this freely without any possibility for due compensation if things went well (as they did), and definite risk of lots of complaints if things did not go well. I, for one, wanted to say thanks for taking us along for the ride by showing us your positions for as long as you were able to.
     
    • Like x 3
  10. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    @juanmedina in case you missed it. ^^^ I also mentioned earlier in the thread how I select strikes (though I didn't write the section on that yet). You can piece it together ;)
     
  11. paydirt76

    paydirt76 Member

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    @paydirt76, the analysis and all of the follow up execution that went along with it that you have provided has been a wealth of knowledge and I believe that many people have found it extremely helpful. Considering that your timing on your calls have been practically impeccable (even if a little luck was involved for some timing calls), anyone following you blindly would have made tons of money making the same moves as you up to this point. Of course, I would never condone that anyone blindly follow someone else's position, but the fact still remains that if someone had done so, they would have made a ton of money.

    Even moreso - you provided all of this freely without any possibility for due compensation if things went well (as they did), and definite risk of lots of complaints if things did not go well. I, for one, wanted to say thanks for taking us along for the ride by showing us your positions for as long as you were able to.

    Thank you. This has all been the culmination of my professional life up until now. The trade/investment of a lifetime. Learned from my misses on Apple & Amazon and was open-minded and curious enough to dig into Tesla with the tremendous help of the broader Tesla community (I named names in an earlier post). This despite being a value investor. We still have incredible insight. Wall Street STILL is refusing to acknowledge the truth in front of them as we watch Tesla expand production in China, Europe, Fremont (Tent 2.0), and now Texas. We can literally count production and know that those cars will be sold.

    I am getting bulled up again, and need to rein in my horns... until a couple months after inclusion date.

    I am not perfect, as you all can see I can get annoyed. I thank God every day for all of this. Often the prayer is simply, thank you God. I also like the prayer to the Holy Spirit.

    I posted all this to share freely so others can benefit, to shake things up, to rebuke old ways of thinking and myths, and to provide a rebuttal to other popular tactics that are costing people money (that is helping to line my pockets). I would rather pay more for market makers to sell me calls and I run over them than be sold calls by Tesla bulls erroneously following a misguided tactic.

    The window of opportunity is closing soon, but it may reopen in a few months. For example, if Tesla rolls out FSD to early testers and we see a video and the Tesla is turning good and the stock under reacts, it may be time to get back into 1 year and 2 year calls before the public figures it out, even if stock is up 10% that day.
     
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  12. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    @paydirt76 Regarding choosing strike prices. I think what you indicated, if I understood earlier posts, was that if Tesla is aiming at 50% growth per year than a strike price for a LEAP around 25% OTM would make sense. Am I in the ballpark?

    So, let's say TSLA drops over the next few weeks before battery day to 1200 (because it makes math nice and round), then I'd want to look at a LEAP would year out around the 1500 strike? Maybe laddered some before and after that?
     
  13. azaz

    azaz Active Member

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    Thinking about rolling out September calls, or should I keep holding?

    really comes down to the timeline for inclusion. @paydirt76 what dates did you end up choosing?
     
    • Helpful x 1
  14. graphilwar

    graphilwar Member

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    I had a hard time picking Sep or Oct 2020 or Jan or Mar 2021 strikes for calls. So I decided to punt and buy Sept 2022 $1500 calls. lol. breakeven is $2065.

    there’s so much good news on the horizon for the second half of 2020. then there are some really big product/factory ramps in 2021. plus some non-zero probability of the market waking up to FSD and Energy over the next couple of years.

    for me the Sept 2022 LEAP wasn’t the most aggressive but I felt the most comfortable with that timing in terms of juicing the return on top of my core share position.

    unfortunately that has left me without a ton of cash, so I need to hustle and make more money so I can have dry powder, heh!
     
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