I sold my August 21 1500c for 430.... I might replace it with another longer term call
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I sold my August 21 1500c for 430.... I might replace it with another longer term call
Despite appearances, do not own a crystal ball. Right now it is marching back up after going nearly unchanged on the day. CRAZY. 1,330 on the stock sounds like a nice number but even if it doesn't go that low, may add back to some short-term calls after earnings.
@paydirt76 Any specific calls you like as a play for S&P and Battery day? I'm looking October 2020 but seems like IV is too high even with the drop we had today. Looking for a high risk high reward play for 50K. Thanks.
Lucky. Sold the inclusion play in the morning at $360 per Aug 1500C. Even though stock was down today, account was up 1.1.
Plan to sit on cash until either (1) Stock hits $1,300-$1,400, will rebuy Aug $1,500 with 5-10% of portfolio or (2) Look to make a play after earnings. Risk management
Plan to sit on cash until either (1) Stock hits $1,300-$1,400, will rebuy Aug $1,500 with 5-10% of portfolio or (2) Look to make a play after earnings. Risk management
I agree... $1300 would be an excellent spot to add running into earnings.... Keep an eye out for that to act as support for the rest of the week... 161.8% retracement, 13/21-day EMAs and a decent amount of volume traded hands in that area last week... If we breach $1300 on the downside, I don't see a lot of support till $1k which would be a retracement and back-test of previous ATHs. I don't think this comes into play pre-earnings unless the macro env. absolutely pukes $SPY <$307, and $QQQ <$248 on close.
Keeping an eye here to add, with tight stops in place in case macro env changes direction.
with you all the way until you said “tight stops” and “macro environment.”
Tight stops are for speculators and gamblers, not investors. Stops serve to stop you from making more money. Stop limits limit your gains. Never say “tight stops” again. You as someone who admittedly has made less than the stock has done... decide to never say/do/think of stops again. They hurt you.
Macro environment is just a distraction. The drama of the crisis of the day, geopolitics, etc has only served to part the panicky of their money. Instead, ignore the macro and take advantage of the dramas and crises with discipline of rebalancing when the market tanks. Forget about macro.
Paying attention to macro or drama caused people to sell near the March 23rd 2020 low.
With love,
I may agree with you with a pure-stock play... But with delta working against you on options, you can be right potentially and get chopped up on years of choppy trading... But yeah, macro is more noise as far as the long-term 5-10+ years success of Tesla is concerned.
Choppy trading is great for long option plays. You need to go back and read the Guide. Set a "home" for deltas or percent of net worth in options and then trim when it hits the top end of a range, add when it hits the bottom end.
Macro is noise period. It's a great separator of wealth when macro is heeded.
Hmm I think I understand what you are saying....
I'm looking for a total 1000-delta position on TSLA long term, I'm happy to build it out slowly over the coming years. Given the current stock price, I can probably get 250-delta or so position buying stock outright (~350k investment at $1400). I can, probably get 350-delta if I go to Jun '22 and get ATM calls.. I feel like this isn't worth the risk-reward of my investment running to $0 for an extra 100-delta.
How would you recommend building up this position? Given that we are, in my opinion, closer to the top of the forseeable trading range than bottom, I could try to employee a wheel-strategy as discussed in the other form to generate additional income. Or, I can buy 50% of my position today, and buy the other 50% via a combination of: writing long-term puts, and using that cash to finance LEAP calls. If we go down, I have cash to secure those puts. If we go up, the puts go down in value, and the calls give me additional delta exposure.
Thoughts on any of these strategies? Would you suggest an alternative?
@paydirt76
LIkely a silly question. when trying to manage deltas, is there a suggested ration of stock to options (LEAPS)?
LIkely a silly question. when trying to manage deltas, is there a suggested ration of stock to options (LEAPS)?
You do you. You’ve literally watched a triple of an account and you are clinging to old modes of thinking.
Why do you think it is being shared exactly what is being done? So you can go do the wheel? Go do the wheel! adiggs is getting slaughtered!
It is being done so you can just copy what is being done. A surfer literally copied and turned 150k into 5M. Just copy!
If you wanna keep to excuses not to do it, keep doing that but you know it’s not working and your stinking thinkin’ has caused you to not even get the stock’s return this year.
if you want more deltas and want to figure out a way, reach out privately. Warning tho: This account was not built with 100% safe expirations and strikes.
@paydirt76 has it gotten low enough to play the short term gain game again?
i say not so fast, but wondering what you guys think...good thread btw - thanks for the participation
i say not so fast, but wondering what you guys think...good thread btw - thanks for the participation
Do you know how cheap Tesla LEAPS were 6 months or a year ago? The gains are 10-20,000% right now from 9 mo ago. Options aren't for everyone, but in some ways it's absurd not to use them. Not saying whether it's a good idea or not right now, just they are very powerful tools.
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8 million of gains were in the past 3 weeks...
4 million from leaps, 4 millions from calls 1-2 months out, during a time when the knee jerk response was “volatility is very high”
Gains have not been as high as you say unless you’re talking about someone who bought Jan’2022 calls when the highest strike was 1280C and stock was at $350. But a less risky, more “respectable” strategy still yielded a 192x in 13 months. No idea what % return that is. Breaking calculators here LOL Hmmm maybe we’re agreeing.
4 million from leaps, 4 millions from calls 1-2 months out, during a time when the knee jerk response was “volatility is very high”
Gains have not been as high as you say unless you’re talking about someone who bought Jan’2022 calls when the highest strike was 1280C and stock was at $350. But a less risky, more “respectable” strategy still yielded a 192x in 13 months. No idea what % return that is. Breaking calculators here LOL Hmmm maybe we’re agreeing.
Cc: @juanmedina
Not going to provide daily updates but will update as position or thinking changes... but...
When the goal was set in January to be long 5,000 deltas for the next 6,000 points on the stock. It was never imagined that at one time the account could straight up buy 5,000 shares. That day arrived sometime last week.
Your goals are likely to be different. Don’t follow exactly. Don’t copy to the letter. You have to live with your position through the ups and downs thru the glories of game set match to the pits of despair. And don’t _____ing use margin ever.
Also tracking that goal, was long on average 10,000 deltas for the first 1,250 points of this journey so could literally sit out over 1,000 points and still be meeting the goal.
The Leaps have been sold. Out of Tesla options completely (for the moment LOL). Today will soon buy stock—5,000 sweet, sweet shares. Plus the is leftover cash to do a short term play. Premiums are starting to get out of hand (was thumbing through Aug and Sept last night), but if you can get the timing and option selection right, there may be another 3x to 4x play. Still waiting for about 1,330, if don’t get that then may buy right before earnings or right after.
Actually, what the heck...
There they are... 5,000 shares.
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