Peak Oil Is Dead - Gasoline Prices Flat to Down Long Term

[WhiteKnight]

Harvard Oil Report

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http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/22144/oil.html

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil- The Next Revolution.pdf

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Presentation on Oil- The Next Revolution.pdf

 

[Doug_G]

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-110/issue-4/exploration-development/bakken-s-maximum.html

For a 2 million b/d oil production rate, well saturation occurs in 2034. For a 1.5 million b/d oil production rate, well saturation occurs in 2045. For a 1 million b/d oil production rate, well saturation occurs in 2065. Policymakers will have to decide which is best for the US economy.

Current US oil consumption is 18.7 b/d. Bakken represents a very helpful volume of production, yes, but it isn't going to wean the country off of imported oil.

 

[Doug_G]

Tempering U.S. shale potential | Energy | News | Financial Post

“Something is rotten in the State of Montana and it smells like moldy shale,” Mr. Brackett wrote in a note to clients. “Montana production of oil is down 38% from its 2006 peak of more than 100,000 barrels per day.”

 

[Zzzz...]

http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-110/issue-4/exploration-development/bakken-s-maximum.html
Current US oil consumption is 18.7 b/d. Bakken represents a very helpful volume of production, yes, but it isn't going to wean the country off of imported oil.

But it going to help a LOT! Way more then putting 1 000 000 EV on the roads.. But sure thing, both things help.

 

[dhrivnak]

If we have so much oil I wonder why Brent Oil prices have been over $100/barrel over most of this year? And the prices are predicted to remain at over $100 for rest of this year and next according to EIA?

 

[jerry33]

If we have so much oil I wonder why Brent Oil prices have been over $100/barrel over most of this year? And the prices are predicted to remain at over $100 for rest of this year and next according to EIA?

If the oil was easy and/or cheap to get at, they would have already done it. These kind of articles generally leave out a ton of facts. Kind of like the "new battery will lower the costs of EVs by 80%" articles.

 

[VolkerP]

If we have so much oil I wonder why Brent Oil prices have been over $100/barrel over most of this year? And the prices are predicted to remain at over $100 for rest of this year and next according to EIA?

Oil is traded globally. Even when the U.S. can produce enough for domestic demand, why should oil companies sell petrol for $2.5 the gallon if some region in China pays $8? And yes, U.S. export petrol (due to excess refinery capacities? Dunno).
If the GOP is serious on $2.5 at the pump they must call for oil and oil products export embargo. That would make the headlines!

 

[JRP3]

What is really wacky is we export oil, then import other oil.

 

[Robert.Boston]

The U.S. imports about 270m barrels of crude oil monthly, while exporting less than 2m barrels of crude. I'm not exactly sure of the reason for these exports, but they're most likely some form of swap (crude oil differs markedly in chemistry, so not all barrels are interchangeable).

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

The U.S. imports about 270m barrels of crude oil monthly, while exporting less than 2m barrels of crude. I'm not exactly sure of the reason for these exports, but they're most likely some form of swap (crude oil differs markedly in chemistry, so not all barrels are interchangeable).

There are issues with distribution too (on the refined gasoline side):

U.S. A Net Gas Exporter For First Time In Decades : NPR

Now, here's an important point: The United States is both an exporter and an importer of gasoline at the same time. It's like we're two different countries. A lot of the oil produced in the U.S. gets refined into gasoline in Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi. It then goes into pipelines for distribution to East Coast states and other areas where gas is consumed.

But those pipelines, Rob Smith says there are too few of them and they're not big enough.

SMITH: These pipelines are essentially filled to the brim, so to speak, and yet the East Coast markets still don't have enough gasoline. So they're forced to import.

GJELTEN: The East Coast imports gasoline even though there's more than enough gasoline available down south. So the gasoline down there gets exported, mostly to Latin America. And now the U.S. is officially exporting more gas than its importing.

And, I can't seem to find the content online now but, I did hear another weird tidbit on NPR about this; according to some act of Congress, US-flag-bearing merchant ships leaving US ports (crude-oil-bearing ships leaving ports in the Gulf of Mexico are of interest to us here) cannot apparently dock again at another US port (say the East Coast or the West Coast) and offload cargo!! Am sure this was designed to protect land-based transportation businesses and such.

 

[brianman]

What is really wacky is we export oil, then import other oil.

Kind of like consuming power from the grid, and then selling back your solar power.

 

[strider]

The U.S. imports about 270m barrels of crude oil monthly, while exporting less than 2m barrels of crude. I'm not exactly sure of the reason for these exports, but they're most likely some form of swap (crude oil differs markedly in chemistry, so not all barrels are interchangeable).

As I understand it it's a logistics thing. A decent amount of Alaskan crude goes to Japan.

 

[JRP3]

Kind of like consuming power from the grid, and then selling back your solar power.

Well that's a time of use issue, the oil doesn't have that problem since you can store it. You can't store your solar power for when you need it, at least without a battery bank.

 

[brianman]

@JRP3 - My point was that "the simple logic" often doesn't capture the full story. We have a complicated world.

 

[JRP3]

True enough, and as has been pointed out there are reasons for the US export of oil, so I probably overstated the "wackiness" of it.

 

[dmetcalf]

Huh, this is weird. Just this weekend we had a new all-time high for gasoline prices in Germany. Average was 1.692 €/liter or 6.40€ /gallon. They blame high oil prices.

Article (in German):
Benzinpreis steigt auf Rekordhöhe | tagesschau.de

When we lived in Sweden and US price was only $2.50/US gallon (3.8l) it was over $8/gallon equivalent. My understanding was tax and volume of trade. Seems like Germany is similar.

 

[neroden]

Re:
(a)Needs to be deconstructed. Environmental "damage" is tiny compared to most other energy sources, from hydro (flooded valleys, usually the very best valleys), to normal (much shallower) drilling, to solar and wind (which remove large swathes of real estate from other uses, notably including tourism--see Wales and Scotland for egregious examples). Further, new tech ("GasFrac") uses gelled butane from the well itself instead of water, so no drain of water resources, nor injection underground, nor cleanup of "used" water, is actually necessary.

Beyond false. Fracking causes earthquakes and poisons aquifers just for *starters*, and then there's the misuse of fresh water resources.

Maybe it would be OK if it were being done responsibly -- but it *isn't* because doing it responsibly *isn't actually profitable*. Fracked gas fields have been running out much faster than the fracking companies originally predicted (but in line with USGS predictions). So companies like Cheseapeake are currently running pump-and-dump real estate scams, where they drill a well, announce large first-year production, and sell it off to a major oil company ASAP. This is because the wells aren't actually profitable over their lifetimes. Now, as fly-by-night operators, they have every incentive to cut corners -- so they *do*. Eventually the majors will figure this out and stop buying from them, and they'll all go under. The Forbes/NYT reports suggest that this will happen sooner or later.

 

[jerry33]

Beyond false. Fracking causes earthquakes and poisons aquifers just for *starters*, and then there's the misuse of fresh water resources.

Agreed. We're basically trading air pollution (burning oil) for water pollution (fracking natural gas). Getting off of fossil fuel almost entirely is the only sane goal.