Pencil down vs hire from Volvo

[Red Sage]

Damn RedSage...is there an award for the longest posts?

YOU WIN!!!



Dan

Yeah. I think I won it over at M3OC by learning there was a 10,000 character limit per post. So I had to split that post in half to it.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Model Y
Model P
Model B
Model 1/2

 

[wdolson]

I am very careful to be quite specific when I use the word 'COMBINED'. For instance, the Model S outsold Panamera, A8 L, and 7-Series -- COMBINED -- during 2016. I didn't use that relative to Cadillac's cars, though I may have regarding two of three vehicles from Lincoln.

My misunderstanding.

I noticed you kept using the term 'NA' before... I presume that stands for 'North America'. Please note that includes the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Plus, different sources report different data. I was using U.S. Sales alone. I am rather confident that except for companies like Volkswagen, who are enormously popular outside the U.S. for some reason (or were, prior to DieselGate), that U.S. sales are indicative of worldwide popularity for a brand.

My bad again. I tend to think regionally rather than national borders.

But that, as they say, is another subject. My point was that without traditional 'luxury' accoutrement, the Tesla Model S has outsold a wide variety of individual vehicles. Many of them vehicles with 'luxury' at the forefront of their stated mission. Several of them with an advantage in distribution network and advertising revenue and companies with deeper pockets and decades more experience and... yet, even cars that have a starting price under $40,000 are outsold by one with an average sale price somewhere between $90,000 and $105,000 per various sources. Cars that others have repeatedly claimed Tesla should mimic in order to 'survive' or 'continue selling Model S' after the release of Model ☰. I find that argument to be entirely incorrect.

Which corresponds to why I mentioned 50% of Tesla owners never owned a car worth over $60K before. To a large extent with cars when you get over around $60K, you're starting to get into rarefied air most people aren't interested in, even if they can afford it. The extra money buys performance you're only going to experience if you get on a track or break the law, or the car pampers you with extra luxury, and/or it's a status symbol. Your neighbor got a Maserati, so you have to one up him (and you have the money to do it).

You mentioned car detailing in Berverly Hills, I grew up not far from San Marino, which is probably the richest suburb of Los Angeles, though it's all old money. When I first learned to drive I would escape my crazy mother and drive around San Marino or Pasadena as a sort of meditative exercise. The most common car I saw around San Marino were Cadillac Sedan deVilles (this was the 80s). I never saw an exotic sports car or some other super expensive exotic.

People were into nice cars, but didn't go for the pampering the really expansive cars offered. The few times I went to Beverley Hills, it was a completely different environment. Nearly half the cars were very expensive exotics.

The Model S and X have drawn in people who aren't interested in the bling of most $100K cars, but like the Tesla brand for one reason or another.

I agree with you that Tesla doesn't need to be ultra luxurious. They cross sell to some people who are used to that who also tend to complain about the spartan interior, but to a large degree the interior is fine if you're used to a car costing in the $40K range.

I think most people miss having approximately 3.5 cup holders per passenger in a Model X.

I think the door pockets have already been improved for Model X and will be even more useful for Model ☰. But no, they won't be any easier to clean (or keep clean) by any means.

I managed well enough in my last car, though stuff did accumulate in there and a cleaning needed to be done every few months..

My SO calls all her cars "The Ratmobile". Her last Ratmobile is now on permanent loan to her ex, so we sometimes need to make the distinction "Red Rat" or "Green Rat", but they are all Ratmobiles. She calls them that in part because she is fond of rats, but also because her cars tend to end up looking like rat's nests. She spilled a shake inside the cubby hole compartment of her current car and just left it that way for months until i got fed up and went in there and cleaned it. She had change that was glued fast to the bottom of the cubby. I needed to soak it to get them out.

The rear seat entertainment thing is something I actually applaud Tesla for not having, as it is a complete waste. I believe the designers properly realized that as the children age, they will be using their own handheld devices. I know of children under the age of two that are using tablets already. Once equipped with BlueTooth earbuds, those back of the seat screens will be proven to be an absolute waste of automotive real estate and parental unit funding. The technology built into the car would be surpassed by whatever tablet, watch, phone, or OmniTool the kids are using three years from now anyway.

It's never been a big deal to me, but some parents seem to swear by the tech.

OK. Please take a look at professional level racing seats. I am not aware of any of them that have removable or adjustable height headrests. All Tesla automotive products will be Performance oriented, and as such, all of them will be built with Safety as a primary concern. So you will get full head, shoulder, and neck support by default. That's just the way it is.

Different people have different length torsos and adjustable headrests allow for more of a custom fit than fixed headrests. I paid Tesla to replace the front seats with next gen a month ago because the cloth seats were absolutely torture on our necks. The headrest leaned forward and was in the absolute worst spot so my upper back got no support and it was killer on my upper back and neck. If I had been rear ended the headrest would have shoved my chin into my chest.

The Buick Roadmaster Estate was one of the best conceived and executed Family people haulers known to mankind. It fell victim to the popularity of SUVs that came with the Ford Explorer. And that was after already suffering a pretty big setback to America's love affair with minivans from Chrysler/Plymouth/Dodge. The relatively horrid fuel economy probably didn't help much either. So when the majority of GM's rear wheel drive vehicles took to pasture, the Roadmaster Estate went along with them, never to be seen again.

I had the sedan, but the gas mileage was actually pretty good compared to modern full sized cars. It got around 18 mpg around town and 24-25 on the road. Even the last road trip we took when the car was 22 it got over 24 mpg up and over the mountains into California and back. When I started looking seriously two years ago I was appalled at how little gas mileage had improved. Cars like the Taurus only got 27/19, which is barely better than the noise with the Buick.

From what I read, what ultimately killed the GM rear wheel drive, full sized cars was not so much the competition, the cars were selling at around the expected levels. GM realized they could make more money putting those engines into trucks. My car had the same engine as the Chevy 3/4 ton pickup.

But I did note multiple times that the design team for Tesla Model X could learn a lot from the Roadmaster Estate. Along with perhaps the Volkswagen Vanagon. Sure, the form factors for the vehicles themselves may not have been en vogue, but the means by which they allowed for neat and easily accessible storage was unique and creative. Sometimes an old dog can teach the new one old tricks.

Tesla has announced they will be building a van based on the Model S/X platform. If sales for the Model S do tank, they could always build those on the production line. The commercial market for those as mini buses as well as cargo vans will be high.

[QUOTE}
Ah, the ever-popular, "Oh, $#!+!!!" bars! They are well placed, and quite convenient in some cars. But aesthetically, they always look bad. And in some cars I've noticed, they aren't as well placed as passengers would like. But they'd always rather have them than reach for them and find them mysteriously absent.

I'll be honest though... Until my younger Brother picked up an older Mercedes-Benz S500, I had never seen (or noticed, and examined) a grab bar at the driver's seat in a sedan. Typically, I'd make note of them at every other entry point to the car. He'll turn 46 in a few weeks, so he isn't exactly geriatric... But he is recovering from a recent ankle replacement surgery and will be happy to make use of that grab handle when he gets in and out of the car for a long while.
[/QUOTE]

I now can't remember if my Roadmaster had one on the driver's side or not. I vaguely remember it. But the car was marketed to older people.

My goal is to NOT need to lay my hand on anything other than the steering wheel while I'm driving. So, I would want to banish everything that doesn't fit in the glove box to the Frunk. My glasses will be in my jacket pocket or on my face. I switch between clear vision and shades as needed at dawn and dusk. Various other items can go in a bag in the trunk. I'll just stop and take them out as needed. When I'm driving, I just want to drive.

Newer cars have controls on the steering wheel my Buick didn't have. I find them convenient, especially the programmable wheels Tesla has.

I learned a long time ago that the best way to clean a room was to take everything out of it. Then, don't put anything back unless it belongs there. What's left over is trash. I expect to not need to store much in my Model ☰. I'll keep the car neat and clean simply by not putting anything in it that doesn't belong at all.

I grew up in a house full of pack rats and I've lived with some people with ADD. That becomes impossible with both.

When I lived alone I hosted a social event at my house at least once a month (connected with a group i belonged to). I got in the habit of not using the living room or dining room much and cleaning those areas for guests was much quicker. We now go much longer intervals between guests and the house gets terribly cluttered.

We also have a cat who is a box chewer now. So there are bits of cardboard everywhere.

 

[Red Sage]

My point was the Model 3 PxxD probably is incapable of better performance than the Model S PxxxD. Performance is a matter of a number of factors: size of the motors, weight of the car, voltage of the battery pack, and how much instantaneous current can be pumped out of the battery pack.

The Model 3 has a weight advantage, but the Model S has the advantages everywhere else. The larger pack on the Model 3 might be 400V, but it probably won't be and it almost certainly is not going to capable of the same current levels.

We'll see. I expect a great many will be very surprised. I noticed a recent advertisement for the Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio that celebrated its 'best-in-class' acceleration (3.6 seconds 0-60 MPH, per Car and Driver). I'm sure that will fall to Model ☰, because INSANE mode means 3.2 seconds 0-60 MPH, and LUDICROUS will be even quicker.

I expect the Model 3 is going to decimate Camry and Accord sales.

That would be cool. It would definitely be yet another Tesla inspired wake up call to the automotive industry. But, if Tesla intends to keep the same ratio of U.S. to Foreign Sales... It typically floats between about 40% to 55% toward the U.S.... They'll have to build a lot more of the Model ☰ to manage the feat. The Toyota Camry is the perennial leader in U.S. passenger car sales, but sold less than 400,000 units in 2016 for the first time since 2011. Camry was down by 9.5%, while the Accord was off by only 2.9%. In 11 of the past 15 years Camry has sold in excess of 400,000 units.

If the Model ☰ could manage 450,000+ U.S. sales per year, that would certainly crush both Camry and Accord. But that would equate to worldwide sales of between 818,182 to 1,125,000 units per annum, or 900,000 per year nominal. That would broach the territory of worldwide sales for Toyota Corolla, Volkswagen Golf, and Ford Focus. Tesla is going to need a much bigger Gigafactory to make that sort of thing happen.

I think that for now, taking ownership of the market that has been dominated by BMW 3-Series will be enough for now, and that the Accord/Camry/FUSION/MALIBU/Sorrento/Optima/Passat market segment will be brought down too as a side effect, rather than a direct target. The genius thing is that the Model ☰ is just the right size/shape to manage the crossover sales it would need over multiple segments. Now that cars like the Corolla and Civic are larger than ever before, the Model ☰ will be considered a 'normal' sized car for many.

My family bought only GM until about 10 years ago too. My sister and father switched to Ford.

My younger Brothers switched to Ford by the late 90s. Before that they were into Chevrolet or Nissan. I've always liked Chevrolets, but not owned any. I used to really like Honda, but they seem to have given up on their competitive and/or innovative spirit. Again, now that the best Chevrolet cars of all time are on the road, I can get a Tesla instead.

Because the EPA classification is based on the interior volume, I expect the Model 3 will be classified as a large car, though it might come out midsized.

Total volume between 110 ft3 and 119 ft3 is Midsize. 120 ft3 or more is Large. 100 ft3 to 109 ft3 is Compact. Some are estimating the Cabin on Model ☰ is effectively the same size as the Model S, while the Frunk is smaller, and so is the Trunk.

• The AUDI A4 is often used as an exterior size benchmark, and it has a 92 ft3 interior, with 13 ft3 luggage capacity, which comes to 107 ft3, and leaves it at Compact.
• The Infiniti Q50 has a 102 ft3 interior, and 13 ft3 cargo space, for 115 ft3, making it Midsize.
• The Model S is 94 ft3 interior and 26 ft3 cargo, a total of 120 ft3, just barely qualifying as Large.

I figure that even if the Model ☰ has about a 15 ft3 Trunk (like a Honda Civic), and 4 ft3 Frunk (I'm thinking it will be smaller than that), it will probably not be over 118 ft3 in total volume, making it Midsize.

 

[wdolson]

We'll see. I expect a great many will be very surprised. I noticed a recent advertisement for the Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio that celebrated its 'best-in-class' acceleration (3.6 seconds 0-60 MPH, per Car and Driver). I'm sure that will fall to Model ☰, because INSANE mode means 3.2 seconds 0-60 MPH, and LUDICROUS will be even quicker.

It might.

That would be cool. It would definitely be yet another Tesla inspired wake up call to the automotive industry. But, if Tesla intends to keep the same ratio of U.S. to Foreign Sales... It typically floats between about 40% to 55% toward the U.S.... They'll have to build a lot more of the Model ☰ to manage the feat. The Toyota Camry is the perennial leader in U.S. passenger car sales, but sold less than 400,000 units in 2016 for the first time since 2011. Camry was down by 9.5%, while the Accord was off by only 2.9%. In 11 of the past 15 years Camry has sold in excess of 400,000 units.

If the Model ☰ could manage 450,000+ U.S. sales per year, that would certainly crush both Camry and Accord. But that would equate to worldwide sales of between 818,182 to 1,125,000 units per annum, or 900,000 per year nominal. That would broach the territory of worldwide sales for Toyota Corolla, Volkswagen Golf, and Ford Focus. Tesla is going to need a much bigger Gigafactory to make that sort of thing happen.

This lecture from last year was right in line with what I thought could happen, though Julian Cox went into a much deeper analysis than I did:
Charged EVs | How the Tesla Model 3 could trigger the collapse of the traditional auto industry

As he points out, to completely disrupt the car industry the Model 3 doesn't have to sell huge numbers, it just needs to shift enough interest away from ICE that people slow down buying new cars. He expects there will be an increase in leases as people who want a Model 3, but can't get one will lease for a couple of years until they can get one. This will look fine for the ICE industry at first because they still make money leasing cars, but it will be a day of reckoning when all those leases expire, people return the cars, and the car dealers find nobody wants them anymore. Or at least not at a price where the dealer makes any money.

I think that for now, taking ownership of the market that has been dominated by BMW 3-Series will be enough for now, and that the Accord/Camry/FUSION/MALIBU/Sorrento/Optima/Passat market segment will be brought down too as a side effect, rather than a direct target. The genius thing is that the Model ☰ is just the right size/shape to manage the crossover sales it would need over multiple segments. Now that cars like the Corolla and Civic are larger than ever before, the Model ☰ will be considered a 'normal' sized car for many.

I agree. It will be a little on the large side, but not considered huge like the Model S. My SO doesn't like large cars and she finds the Model S too big for her tastes, though she does like almost everything else about it. She's the gearhead in the family. Her father owned a car dealership when she was a kid and she grew up with them.

My younger Brothers switched to Ford by the late 90s. Before that they were into Chevrolet or Nissan. I've always liked Chevrolets, but not owned any. I used to really like Honda, but they seem to have given up on their competitive and/or innovative spirit. Again, now that the best Chevrolet cars of all time are on the road, I can get a Tesla instead.

I was the last Chevy owner in the family. My sister bought a Buick LeSabre and my father an Olds 98 in the 80s. My father replaced the Olds with a Cadillac he said would be his last car, but he had to replace that with a Ford Fusion a couple of years ago. He'll be 97 in a month, though he may not be driving again.

Total volume between 110 ft3 and 119 ft3 is Midsize. 120 ft3 or more is Large. 100 ft3 to 109 ft3 is Compact. Some are estimating the Cabin on Model ☰ is effectively the same size as the Model S, while the Frunk is smaller, and so is the Trunk.

• The AUDI A4 is often used as an exterior size benchmark, and it has a 92 ft3 interior, with 13 ft3 luggage capacity, which comes to 107 ft3, and leaves it at Compact.
• The Infiniti Q50 has a 102 ft3 interior, and 13 ft3 cargo space, for 115 ft3, making it Midsize.
• The Model S is 94 ft3 interior and 26 ft3 cargo, a total of 120 ft3, just barely qualifying as Large.

I figure that even if the Model ☰ has about a 15 ft3 Trunk (like a Honda Civic), and 4 ft3 Frunk (I'm thinking it will be smaller than that), it will probably not be over 118 ft3 in total volume, making it Midsize.

I think there is a good chance the M3 might squeak over the line into a large car. The M3 is a few inches narrower than the Model S, but the dashboard is moved forward a little, like the Model X, and the length of the passenger cabin is about the same as the MS. Tesla also didn't get as aggressive with the roof line as they did with the Model S, so the backseat has better headroom, and I think the front may have a little bit better headroom. The trunk will be smaller than the Model S, but it should be a decent size compared to ICEs out there.

The Model S just squeaks into the full sized largely because of the aggressive roof line. If the roof line was more normal, it would be probably be well into the full sized class.

 

[Red Sage]

This lecture from last year was right in line with what I thought could happen, though Julian Cox went into a much deeper analysis than I did:
Charged EVs | How the Tesla Model 3 could trigger the collapse of the traditional auto industry

As he points out, to completely disrupt the car industry the Model 3 doesn't have to sell huge numbers, it just needs to shift enough interest away from ICE that people slow down buying new cars. He expects there will be an increase in leases as people who want a Model 3, but can't get one will lease for a couple of years until they can get one. This will look fine for the ICE industry at first because they still make money leasing cars, but it will be a day of reckoning when all those leases expire, people return the cars, and the car dealers find nobody wants them anymore. Or at least not at a price where the dealer makes any money.

Yes. I had seen the same analysis. I agree with it too, along with Tony Seba's. They won't publicly admit it, but members of NADA believe it too.

They know full well that there will be a lot of buyers remorse for their own ICE product offerings as people become more aware of Tesla. What some of them thought was just a short lived fad in early 2013 has turned into a four calendar year straight solid drumming of flagship vehicle sales by Model S. Hopefully they've braced themselves for the oncoming decade long onslaught from the Model ☰.

They also know very well by now that once someone gets a Tesla, it is very likely they are NEVER coming back, no matter what they are offered as incentives. That's why they continue with the rhetoric about protecting the 'dealer franchise system' from attack... When that isn't the case at all. No one actually required that automobile manufacturers not sell direct. They only required that upon choosing to sell using franchises, that they treat them fairly. Recent changes to franchise laws to remove the element of choice are being presented as a 'clarification' of the law, and that is outright [BOLSHEVIK].

The concentration on leasing is a trap that traditional automobile manufacturers don't see as a problem. Because they have a short term focus, they consider leasing to be a boon. But it will backfire on them just as did the strategy of going with 'loss leader' cars did for GM and Ford. There's more to business than quarterly statements.

 

[Ulmo]

Interesting choice.

Volvo offers five passenger cars. The S60 is their biggest seller, and was under 15,000 units in 2016, 13.0% lower than 2015. And it was only one of three that sold over 5,000 units. Total U.S. sales for Volvo were 29,746 units among passenger cars in 2016. HybridCars estimates that the Model S alone sold 29,156 units in the U.S. during 2016.

Still... I do remember one of the biggest surprises I ever got at the Greater Los Angeles Auto Show, a couple of decades ago, at least. I noticed by Buddy, Yaboo, was over at the Volvo booth. He was sitting in what was, at the time, a new offering called the C70. I asked what he was doing, as he seemed rather engrossed as I approached. He said the ergonomics were perfect, and invited me to take the driver's seat. He was right. Everything fell perfectly to the touch, all items were exactly where they should be, and the seating position left nothing to be desired. It was as if the car had been built around me.

I expect that Tesla has chosen this guy, not to 'upgrade the quality' of interiors, as so many have stated... So much as to upgrade the experience of operating the vehicle. It will be interesting to see what happens as a result.

Today I only saw one Volvo, and had fond memories of the 3 Volvos I owned. The one I did see was in its natural environment: in the rain going up Old San Jose Road in Soquel.

I saw dozens of Tesla's, even was in a caravan of 3 of us for a dozen miles coming down 85 until De Anza, and still I want a more ergonomic comfortable luxurious interior in Tesla.

That Bentley looks nice. Mercedes would do well to copy them. My E class was ok, nothing to write home about. Wish I had an S instead at the time (like now I wish for an X).

I don't get minimalism. Expensive cars shouldn't be minimal. That's what cheap is for.

 

[Red Sage]

I don't get minimalism. Expensive cars shouldn't be minimal. That's what cheap is for.

Think of it like the view of the landscape in your avatar photo. Whether you are looking at it from the veranda of a five star hotel, or a dusty porch of an old log cabin, it is priceless. There are expensive things, and there are luxurious things. They aren't always the same.

A Buddy of mine once said to me, "Do you have any idea how much guys spend to look like they 'just threw something on'...?" This was after we had gone to an electronics store, and he noticed some chick who worked there really liked me. I didn't even notice her advances, until he noted it as we were leaving. I was like, why? I'm not even dressed well, I just threw something on when we left...

I spent my childhood watching Summertime sunsets from the front lawn of my Grandparent's farm in Mississippi. As an adult I have spent time on the sixteenth floor of a skyscraper in Century City watching sunsets in California. I enjoyed every one of them.

To each his own and stuff. But I know where I'd rather be. Yup.

 

[Jayc]

Sorry for jumping in but just to say I have never understood the appeal of having wooden trims and other traditional styling cues in a modern car. The glossy wooden veneers in dashboards found in Mercs and Beemers IMO look totally out of place against modern instrument clusters and screens, I just don't see the point.

Obviously, I'd want Model 3's dashboard to be made of quality material that resist scratching or rattling but beyond that, I have no requirement for it to look like other cars. In fact, I'd be perfectly happy with the demo Model 3 dash with screen integrated for production and with minimal instrumentation.

As long as the dashboard functions better than other cars and goes with the modern exterior, I am happy.

 

[Red Sage]

 

[Ulmo]

Think of it like the view of the landscape in your avatar photo. Whether you are looking at it from the veranda of a five star hotel, or a dusty porch of an old log cabin, it is priceless. There are expensive things, and there are luxurious things. They aren't always the same.

A Buddy of mine once said to me, "Do you have any idea how much guys spend to look like they 'just threw something on'...?" This was after we had gone to an electronics store, and he noticed some chick who worked there really liked me. I didn't even notice her advances, until he noted it as we were leaving. I was like, why? I'm not even dressed well, I just threw something on when we left...

I spent my childhood watching Summertime sunsets from the front lawn of my Grandparent's farm in Mississippi. As an adult I have spent time on the sixteenth floor of a skyscraper in Century City watching sunsets in California. I enjoyed every one of them.

To each his own and stuff. But I know where I'd rather be. Yup.

Well written.

I'll probably answer after work when I have time.

 

[busaman]

i dont think its so much the looks as much as the funcionality bottom line is there is nowhere to put stuff in the cabin the centre piece is good for maybe a large womans hand bag but you wouldnt want coins or anything that could moove in there.. the armrest is ok if you are 7feet tall and the cup holderes are simply in the wrong place a four year old could tell you that just simply BAD design.... NO door pockets??..

 

[Candleflame]

The difference is that the Model ☰ will likely have a Midsize classification from the EPA, where the 3-Series is a Compact. So Tesla won't have to offer a 'tweener' car like the 5-Series or E-Class. People will buy what they like, what they need, what they can afford. The Acura RLX ($54,450) has about a 142% premium over the Honda Accord ($22,455). The Lexus ES ($38,900) has practically a 69% premium over the Toyota Camry ($23,070), but only a 4% premium over the Toyota Avalon XLE ($37,250). Things cost money and stuff.


Production perhaps, ergonomics most certainly, aesthetics -- not at all. Tesla's designers have been adamant that the design language of their cars is NOT going to change. If you dund like it, there's always guys like TSportline, West Coast Customs, or your friendly neighborhood automotive upholstery shop. If you want a Buick LaCrosse style interior, convince Buick to make a fully electric ELECTRA with a 225 kWh battery pack!

lol is the 3 series really classed as a compact in the USA? As far as I can see from prototype comparisons the Model 3 will probs be slightly larger than a BMW 5 series. That's by no means midsize haha.

 

[Ulmo]

Well written.

I'll probably answer after work when I have time.

I didn't have time. I get tired of setting up Google Maps every day. Bad mistake. Hwy 17 mudslide. Los Gatos parked on freeway 1 hour. Instead of 101-129 like I should have, I detoured Hwy 9, Mt Eden, Hwy 9, waited 45 minutes for Caltrans block (blocking nothing, cars waiting both directions), Skyline Blvd hwy 35, another block at Bear Creek for real clearing mudslide 20 minutes (Caltrans here actually nice road crew doing real work ... do they trade off being nice good work and bs?), finally 17 to home. Arrived Santa Cruz Chademo 2% state of charge -- my bad for starting charge at 11:40pm instalead of 11:05pm; not making that mistake again. 11:05pm PG&E EV-A rate which is 11-7 from now on.

Got home at 8:30, started commute at 2:30.

Ok, work again. Have a great day! Roads clear today for first time in a week.