Pencils down in 6 weeks - Model 3 design work nearly finished

[houdini]

Tesla Model 3's design will be finished in six weeks, Elon Musk says

"Almost all of the Model 3 design is done, and we're aiming for pencils down basically in six weeks, complete pencils down. And we're tabling — you know, if there are ideas for future cool things, we'll have it in version 2, version 3," Elon Musk said today.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Tesla Model 3's design will be finished in six weeks, Elon Musk says

"Almost all of the Model 3 design is done, and we're aiming for pencils down basically in six weeks, complete pencils down. And we're tabling — you know, if there are ideas for future cool things, we'll have it in version 2, version 3," Elon Musk said today.

Great news! As I had hoped, it appears that there was a lot more done with this car at the time of the first reveal than they let on.

Dan

 

[T3SLA3]

I hope 'in six weeks ... the design is done' is not strictly correct.
I suspect what is meant the mechanical design will be locked to allow manufacturing tooling to start. This would be the big ticket critical path to mass production.

Design will continue on the electronics (sensors, displays etc) and of course software.
I am hoping the next generation autopilot will be a big deliverable.

 

[Dynastar]

I hope 'in six weeks ... the design is done' is not strictly correct.
I suspect what is meant the mechanical design will be locked to allow manufacturing tooling to start. This would be the big ticket critical path to mass production.

Design will continue on the electronics (sensors, displays etc) and of course software.
I am hoping the next generation autopilot will be a big deliverable.

I'm sure the autopilot hardware is locked in by now, most likely the triple camera setup we've seen in the 2016 model S schematics. Since Elon also said that part 2 of the reveal will be this year it would make sense that introducing autopilot V2 will be part of the reveal. "Here's what the model 3 will have, or buy it now on the S and X!"

 

[geoffreak]

Did anyone else notice the other tidbit linked from this article? Elon Musk promises 'big' event for Model 3 later this year

 

[techmaven]

I assume that pencils down really applies to anything that is critical path or near critical path to making the Model 3. They are still making changes to the Model S and so there are still iterations of all sorts of other things that aren't critical path or is subject to revision anyways.

 

[deonb]

Design will continue on the electronics (sensors, displays etc) and of course software.

Technically Elon's statement only covered the parts of the design that is done by using a pencil.

I didn't even know that they still sell those...

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'm more excited about Reveal Part 2, which he alluded to having later this year....

 

[tomas]

I hope 'in six weeks ... the design is done' is not strictly correct.
I suspect what is meant the mechanical design will be locked to allow manufacturing tooling to start. This would be the big ticket critical path to mass production.

Design will continue on the electronics (sensors, displays etc) and of course software.
I am hoping the next generation autopilot will be a big deliverable.

I hope not. Design should be locked down now in order to gear up plant and supply chain. That means everything. Of course there will be further changes due to unforeseen issues or technology opportunities. But each should be carefully weighed against schedule and production implications. The important thing for V1 3 is to meet price target and delivery schedule, not incorporate every whiz bang technology advance - especially AP. The S and X should be proving grounds for AP upgrades.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I hope not. Design should be locked down now in order to gear up plant and supply chain. That means everything. Of course there will be further changes due to unforeseen issues or technology opportunities. But each should be carefully weighed against schedule and production implications. The important thing for V1 3 is to meet price target and delivery schedule, not incorporate every whiz bang technology advance - especially AP. The S and X should be proving grounds for AP upgrades.

6 weeks from now is mid-July.

His "ready-to-go" date for suppliers and internally is July 1, 2017.


You can't tell me that 11 1/2 months isn't enough time.

Final design: July 2016.

Reveal 2: Q4 (probably early Dec) (basing this on his "later this year" statement at Code Conference yesterday)

Configurator for current owners, Employees, and Day 1 reservations: staggered, starting in early Q2.

Why the configurator so early? It will give Tesla and suppliers a good idea of WHAT they need for supplies. For example...in the 1st wave, what if 5% choose grey vegan interior option? That has to be sourced. And since he's stated multiple times that "highly-optioned" orders will be built 1st....they need to be able to define what "highly-optioned" is.

 

[Boourns]

I thought he said several weeks ago that the design would be done six weeks from then?

 

[plankeye]

So it appears they have already slipped 2-4 weeks, since he said 6-8 weeks in the 1Q conf. call on 5/4.

"From an engineering standpoint, we're almost complete with the design of Model 3. And in fact the prototype that was driving at the [motor] event end of March was actually using the production drivetrain.

So I think we feel pretty good about engineering completion of the last items, probably within six to eight weeks, thereabouts. So we're completing final release for [tooling] no later than the end of June."
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q1 2016 Conference Call Transcript

 

[plankeye]

I thought he said several weeks ago that the design would be done six weeks from then?

Missed it by that much.

 

[Boourns]

Missed it by that much.

So you're on Elon time, too?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

So it appears they have already slipped 2-4 weeks, since he said 6-8 weeks in the 1Q conf. call on 5/4.

"From an engineering standpoint, we're almost complete with the design of Model 3. And in fact the prototype that was driving at the [motor] event end of March was actually using the production drivetrain.

So I think we feel pretty good about engineering completion of the last items, probably within six to eight weeks, thereabouts. So we're completing final release for [tooling] no later than the end of June."
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q1 2016 Conference Call Transcript

*shrug* he misspeaks a lot. He didn't really make the Supercharging statement very clear (see also: various threads on the board....)

I made my wife watch some of the Shareholders' meeting. She asked me if #AwkwardElon was trending on Twitter. Surprisingly, it was not.

 

[Max*]

Reveal 2: Q4 (probably early Dec) (basing this on his "later this year" statement at Code Conference yesterday)

Knowing EM/Tesla, it'll be December 31st at 11:59pm.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Knowing EM/Tesla, it'll be December 31st at 11:59pm.

Hopefully they saw the abysmal ratings college football garnered attempting to hold a game on NYE, and rethink that strategy.

Do it New Year's Day, when we're all home and hungo......resting up.

 

[melindav]

*shrug* he misspeaks a lot. He didn't really make the Supercharging statement very clear (see also: various threads on the board....)

I made my wife watch some of the Shareholders' meeting. She asked me if #AwkwardElon was trending on Twitter. Surprisingly, it was not.

I'd rather listen to Elon who comes off sincere, if awkward, than a smooth talking BSer.

 

[MiamiNole]

Tabling cool ideas into version 2 or 3? This is simply UNACCEPTABLE! Gimme my money back...

 

[MiamiNole]

I'd rather listen to Elon who comes off sincere, if awkward, than a smooth talking BSer.

Being an engineer myself, I can totally relate. I'm already not the best speaker, let alone if I knew people were actively dissecting every word I said. I probably wouldn't even make any public appearances. Everything I had to say would have to be via press release...