Chopr147
Active Member
Leave it to this forum to tear apart every word and let the rest of us know what EM really meant when he said....................
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Being an engineer myself, I can totally relate. I'm already not the best speaker, let alone if I knew people were actively dissecting every word I said. I probably wouldn't even make any public appearances. Everything I had to say would have to be via press release...
Watch the interview with Elon at the Code conference Watch Elon Musk's full interview at Code 2016 where he comments about the timeframes he announces. He said that he never intends to deceive anyone, when he gives a timeframe that is the timeframe he wants to achieve and he thinks it is achievable. He admits that those timeframes are not necessarily met, but they are the timeframes he is targeting.*shrug* he misspeaks a lot. He didn't really make the Supercharging statement very clear (see also: various threads on the board....)
You can't tell me that 11 1/2 months isn't enough time.
I think people misunderstand how much time it takes to mass produce parts. I work in Automotive for radios and we are being considered right now for 2018-2020 cars. It takes a lot of effort to get parts to mass production and to make sure they will be high enough quality before the vendor orders millions of parts.
I imagine the following needs to take place after the car design is finalized...
1. Negotiations with multiple vendors (cost, etc...)
2. Selection of primary and secondary vendors
3. Vendors create initial molds for production
4. Vendors provide prototype
5. Tesla vets prototype part
6. Tweaks are made to prototype
7. Vendor provides another prototype
8. Repeat steps 4-7 until part is correct
9. Once finalized parts have to be made small production numbers
10. Initial mass produced parts are shipped for inclusion in initial complete prototype run.
11. Any bugs in initial prototype run need to be fixed before mass production
12. Mass production starts and parts are shipped.
This all has to be done @July 2017. I don't think people consider how long this will take. I am guessing that any part that has to go on the car will have to be finalized when he said by his pencil down date. This isn't a Model S or X. They can't just throw new parts into the car every couple months. They have to finalize the design and have parts flowing and then schedule changes to the design at model refreshes.
I am guessing Tesla will be more quick than say Honda that tends to refresh every 3 years unless there is a flaw they need to correct then that happens every model year. I am guessing Tesla might throw new design in every year but I think it is unreasonable to expect more than that or they won't get economies of scale here. You have to turn on the mass production switch and leave it on as long as you can to get the cost of the car down.
Now this doesn't include software since they have a download model. But there is still some software that is burned into flash that would have to be finalized soon if that goes into a mass produced part.
Watch the interview with Elon at the Code conference Watch Elon Musk's full interview at Code 2016 where he comments about the timeframes he announces. He said that he never intends to deceive anyone, when he gives a timeframe that is the timeframe he wants to achieve and he thinks it is achievable. He admits that those timeframes are not necessarily met, but they are the timeframes he is targeting.
If you want to call that "misspeaks" you are welcome to, but when I read that word I interpret it as "says by mistake" or "says knowing it is wrong". The definition of that word is a bit vague, in my opinion.
Nowadays parts 4-7 can be done in parallel between multiple vendors.I think people misunderstand how much time it takes to mass produce parts. I work in Automotive for radios and we are being considered right now for 2018-2020 cars. It takes a lot of effort to get parts to mass production and to make sure they will be high enough quality before the vendor orders millions of parts.
I imagine the following needs to take place after the car design is finalized...
1. Negotiations with multiple vendors (cost, etc...)
2. Selection of primary and secondary vendors
3. Vendors create initial molds for production
4. Vendors provide prototype
5. Tesla vets prototype part
6. Tweaks are made to prototype
7. Vendor provides another prototype
8. Repeat steps 4-7 until part is correct
9. Once finalized parts have to be made small production numbers
10. Initial mass produced parts are shipped for inclusion in initial complete prototype run.
11. Any bugs in initial prototype run need to be fixed before mass production
12. Mass production starts and parts are shipped.
This all has to be done @July 2017. I don't think people consider how long this will take. I am guessing that any part that has to go on the car will have to be finalized when he said by his pencil down date. This isn't a Model S or X. They can't just throw new parts into the car every couple months. They have to finalize the design and have parts flowing and then schedule changes to the design at model refreshes.
I am guessing Tesla will be more quick than say Honda that tends to refresh every 3 years unless there is a flaw they need to correct then that happens every model year. I am guessing Tesla might throw new design in every year but I think it is unreasonable to expect more than that or they won't get economies of scale here. You have to turn on the mass production switch and leave it on as long as you can to get the cost of the car down.
Now this doesn't include software since they have a download model. But there is still some software that is burned into flash that would have to be finalized soon if that goes into a mass produced part.
They don't have press releases for everything they do. While I appreciate that a lot has to happen behind the scenes....since it IS behind the scenes, who among us it to say these talks aren't already happening, and protected by NDA's?
Nowadays parts 4-7 can be done in parallel between multiple vendors.
I wonder who will be supplying the air-bags. Who was that that just had ANOTHER recall? Can they be a reliable supplier? What parts are beyond Tesla to make in house?Tires/glass/airbags/...I agree that this is already happening. The problem is you can't start the final process until the design is done. I don't think they can meet mass production in a year after "pencils down" if they keep tweaking designs that effect parts and suppliers after the pencil down state. That is all I am saying.
Agreed and some vendors will be faster to get the part ready than others. It isn't that hard to source screws because you pick something that is already available. That rear window on the other hand... Plus yes the seat supplier can go through vetting at the same time as the window manufacturer. I guess they could tweak things as long as they know that the parts involved won't have as much of a lead time.
I'd rather listen to Elon who comes off sincere, if awkward, than a smooth talking BSer.
Takata, and they are still shipping bad air bags out on brand new vehicles that will, sometime soon, have to be recalled for replacement.I wonder who will be supplying the air-bags. Who was that that just had ANOTHER recall? Can they be a reliable supplier? What parts are beyond Tesla to make in house?Tires/glass/airbags/...
Takata, and they are still shipping bad air bags out on brand new vehicles that will, sometime soon, have to be recalled for replacement.
Bad stuff, and a lawsuit waiting to happen. Or not waiting.
Robin
I was trying to NOT name names. But the point was - Tesla cannot make all their supplies in-house. They have said they WANT to, but I contend there are some that just don't make sense. Tires/glass/airbags just to name a few.Takata, and they are still shipping bad air bags out on brand new vehicles that will, sometime soon, have to be recalled for replacement.
Bad stuff, and a lawsuit waiting to happen. Or not waiting.
Robin
Don't rain on our parade. The good news just got here and.....geessshhh.Let's call it end of July for the final final pencils down and see what he says in the Q2 earnings report. If TM can truly put their pencils down on design and just focus on minor ECO's they have a chance of getting crash testing complete and ride dynamics stabilized around August 2017. It would be truly amazing if they did, but it is a super long shot.
If TM can truly put their pencils down on design and just focus on minor ECO's they have a chance of getting crash testing complete and ride dynamics stabilized around August 2017. It would be truly amazing if they did, but it is a super long shot.