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Percentage cancelling deposit

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by lego, Mar 31, 2016.

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Percentage on people getting refund on deposit

  1. +80%

    2 vote(s)
    1.4%
  2. 60-79%

    2 vote(s)
    1.4%
  3. 40-59%

    14 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. 20-39%

    53 vote(s)
    37.9%
  5. <19%

    69 vote(s)
    49.3%
  1. lego

    lego Member

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    Any guess on the percentage people cancelling? I'm guessing a high number because when people realize it's not going to be $35,000 after all said and done.
    • Upgrading battery
    • No more tax credits after certain number of cars sold
    • Installing charger in garage
    • OPTIONS; autopilot, AWD, etc
    I'm hoping a lot since I'm too lazy to go to the store and line up to put a deposit, will wait until tonight to put a deposit online.
     
  2. vjason

    vjason Member

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    I think that these two are the biggies:

    • Expired tax credit
    • Cost of charger in garage (not to mention how people in apartments and/or who don't have a garage will charge)

    I would think that there is enough pent up demand that will sell through at least the first 6-12 months of production without much difficulty. Beyond that it will come down to how it compares to other electrics out there.

    Option costs are a concern, but I'll bet there are a lot out there that don't really need AWD, a larger battery, and autopilot. I believe those options are negotiable if it means the difference between getting a car or not.

    Right now the Volt looks decent enough (disclaimer: I have no interest in one), but how will it look when the 3 is revealed tonight? and again when the specs and options are finalized? Which car is better (aka performance, looks, included options) at a 35/45/50/55 price point?

    Time will tell.....
     
  3. cheekeman

    cheekeman Member

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    The Volt will still be the choice for many people. I own a 2015 Volt and many people I talk to still want a gas "backup".. still not 100% ready to switch to EV. I already pre-ordered a Model 3 though so I will get rid of my Volt soon :D
     
  4. Brad_NC

    Brad_NC Member

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    I think a lot of people will fail to plan their finances properly over the next few years and request their reservation money back to dig them out of the hole they end up in.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. Lex

    Lex Member

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    There will be new buyers stepping-up constantly anyway, unless Tesla closes pre-orders at some point ? I had been assuming pre-orders would stay open until normal orders are accepted, but if they slam it shut it would create exclusivity for the initial waiting list, which should drive down any cancellations.
     
  6. musicious

    musicious Member

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    I think alot of people will put multiple deposits down to artificially inflate the stock price based on assumption of high demand so they can sell their options and then refund their deposits
     
    • Funny x 1
  7. freeewilly

    freeewilly Member

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    What is the deposit refund policy on Model 3?
     
  8. reach

    reach Member

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    This thread was started from a new member who has never posted before. Looks like a person who has made an investment that Tesla's stock market share price will go down, "shorting the stock." He is using our forum to reduce the losses on his investment, rather than to adding to the discussion.
     
    • Like x 2
  9. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    I don't believe people putting money down, knowing the vehicle is going to be at least $30k, are going to be dissuaded by those points. At least not more than 10%. Now, people will cancel for a number of reasons over the time period leading up to the release, and numerous people will also put down reservations. They're going after the Premium market...and even with the expiration of the tax credit it will still be priced competitively.
     
  10. AdamSM

    AdamSM Member

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    It's possible that it's someone trying to make good on a short, but I prefer to give people the benefit of the doubt. Plus, nothing wrong with shorting a stock if you think it will go down, although I certainly wouldn't short Tesla myself.

    If the $35K version (pre-tax credit, so $27.5K with the tax credit) meets expectations (200+ miles range, really and released in late 2017 with wide availability in 2018), I bet that the number of cancellations will be low. If they can't hit that price point, and either it ends up being $35K after tax incentives (which is contrary to prior statements) or that there are must-add options that cost a lot, or if it's late 2018 and everyone's still waiting, then there will be lots of cancellations.
     
    • Like x 1
  11. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Active Member

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    It might be a significant number. People might get sticker shock once options actually come out.
    Also, the details on the car will change between now and actual ordering time, and folks might find those changes no longer meet their needs. (Maybe the rear seats won't actually fold to use an example from the past)

    The thing with the tax credit expiring, is unless Tesla hits that 200K trigger well before people have configured with just Model X and S sales, the credit burn down period is probably going to be happening as deliveries are being made. By that point you have committed the $1000 to non-refundable status, so you would lose your deposit if you cancel. People may still cancel if the $7500 was a deal breaker for them, but others may be less willing to walk away from $1K to get out of the deal.
     
  12. AlanSqB

    AlanSqB Member

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    The $7.5k credit will not be a factor for many reasons already mentioned in other threads.

    I also don't think there will be a huge cancellation rate. What I think we will see are a significant number of deferrals. The deferrals are going to hit because:
    • People worried about build quality of initial units
    • People waiting for specific options
    • People lining up financing
    Many of those deferrals will then probably turn into cancellations.
     
  13. lego

    lego Member

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    Definitely not shorting the stock, I'm just pointing out my observation.
     
  14. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    I'm the kind of person putting down $1000 that the Tesla bulls may not appreciate ...

    I'll guess that the odds of my buying the car in 1-2 years are about 50:50. The $50 or so in opportunity cost to reserve a (higher) place in the queue is an easy choice.
     
    • Like x 2
  15. lego

    lego Member

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    This is exactly what I'm talking about, 2 years is a long time away. Also, it's FULLY REFUNDABLE.

    My current car lease is up June 2018. I'm not seeing a good chance I'll get my Model 3 in time and I'm actually going to the store later today to make a deposit.
     
  16. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    I also think there will be a large number of cancellations. It's easy to put down $1000, actually pulling the trigger in a couple years is another thing. (This doesn't apply to people who went out and stood in line today, but they will be a very small percentage of overall reservations over the next couple years.)

    Note that this doesn't have anything to do with shorting the stock. I believe Tesla will easily be able to sell as many as they can possibly manufacture, it just looks like we might have 3 or more years of production reserved. I certainly know for the Model S I had a reservation sequence of 12K but a VIN of 5K, and that was a $5000 reservation.
     
    • Informative x 2
  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    #17 SageBrush, Mar 31, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2016
    Matching the timing to your lease expiration sounds possible, if only because I gather that Tesla will work with you on delaying your order if your number comes up.

    Certainly there are many reasons to back out, and the cost to do so is minor. This is why I asked in another thread how much of this reservation process is PR hype and how much an actual demand estimation tool.

    WAG: Since Tesla cornered about a fourth of the luxury, 75k USD market in the US, I give them a fair to good chance of doing the same with the 40k USD domestic sedan market.
     
  18. RAW84

    RAW84 Member

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    I think the bulk of the cancellations will come shortly after the reveal from those who don't like the car aesthetically.

    I don't think most people feel comfortable just parking $1,000 in Tesla's coffers if they aren't serious about buying.
     
  19. AMPd

    AMPd Active Member

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    Why wouldn't it be 35k after all said and done?
    Obviously adding options will cost extra, no one in their right mind expected a fully loaded model 3 to be 35k
    Installing charger in the garage?
    I'm pretty sure people who are putting down a thousand bucks realize the car is electric
     
    • Like x 1
  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    OK, numbers to calculate by:

    Most: Over 50%
    Serious: More likely than not, so 50%

    Now we have at least a 25% conversion rate.
     

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