Percentage cancelling deposit

[lego]

Why wouldn't it be 35k after all said and done?
Obviously adding options will cost extra, no one in their right mind expected a fully loaded model 3 to be 35k
Installing charger in the garage?
I'm pretty sure people who are putting down a thousand bucks realize the car is electric

A lot of people are oblivious about cars. Driving around in a city and you see most don't pay attention or have no idea what's going on around them, they just want to get where they want to.
Yes, they know the car is electric and I'm sure some will think just plugging it in the garage outlet will charge the car in 30 minutes like with a SC.

 

[Az_Rael]

Why wouldn't it be 35k after all said and done?
Obviously adding options will cost extra, no one in their right mind expected a fully loaded model 3 to be 35k
Installing charger in the garage?
I'm pretty sure people who are putting down a thousand bucks realize the car is electric

I am guessing some people will find out the $35k car doesn't come optioned enough for their needs. Maybe it won't include supercharging, or the battery range won't be enough to meet people's expectations.

This is exactly what happened to me with the Model S. Granted, I didn't put down the $5k to reserve one, but I was going to buy one and followed the release and all the press from Tesla that it would be a $50k car. Well, they met the $50k requirement, but only after the tax credit and with a 40kW battery with ~150 miles range. So I had sticker shock as I would have been stretching to buy a car in the $50s. Turns out I was going to need to spend in the 80-90s and that wasn't feasible for me.

 

[SageBrush]

Well, they met the $50k requirement, but only after the tax credit and with a 40kW battery with ~150 miles range. So I had sticker shock as I would have been stretching to buy a car in the $50s. Turns out I was going to need to spend in the 80-90s and that wasn't feasible for me.

I've noticed that the options are pretty expensive ;-)
I expect the Model ☰ to continue the tradition.

 

[AMPd]

I am guessing some people will find out the $35k car doesn't come optioned enough for their needs. Maybe it won't include supercharging, or the battery range won't be enough to meet people's expectations.

This is exactly what happened to me with the Model S. Granted, I didn't put down the $5k to reserve one, but I was going to buy one and followed the release and all the press from Tesla that it would be a $50k car. Well, they met the $50k requirement, but only after the tax credit and with a 40kW battery with ~150 miles range. So I had sticker shock as I would have been stretching to buy a car in the $50s. Turns out I was going to need to spend in the 80-90s and that wasn't feasible for me.

But this is different, from what we know, or can speculate, the base model 3 will have at least 200 miles of range.
The 35k price tag is also before tax incentives, so it truly is 35k.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

If yesterday's leaks are to be believed, I'm perfectly fine checking boxes that put me in the mid-50's, even higher if I have to. I'm good up to about $75K....but I doubt it will come to that.

 

[JY07]

If the timeline runs long and the price point to get a reasonably optioned car starts creeping up (both probably pretty likely), odds are good I'll end up cancelling, especially if it becomes easy to get this year's volts at a good price point

 

[NoMoGas]

That's dumb. Why bother?

 

[Darryl]

Based on the Model X which had a $5,000 deposit, very few people have canceled their reservation. I estimate between 2-3% during the 3 1/2 year period. Model X owner's were invited to configure and order their cars based on their reservation sequence number. The invites went out starting in early December through Mid-January. Even though all invitation are out, it is estimated there are 30-40 percent of the reservation holders have not ordered. Some have indicating they prefer to wait until more cars go through the production line to ensure they get a car with no problems. I am not sure why others have not ordered.

 

[Lonnie123]

Why wouldn't it be 35k after all said and done?
Obviously adding options will cost extra, no one in their right mind expected a fully loaded model 3 to be 35k
Installing charger in the garage?
I'm pretty sure people who are putting down a thousand bucks realize the car is electric

Well for starters if you get the most base model possible its still going to be $40,000 after tax, title, license, and delivery. No way to escape those so the "real" base price is $40k. Full Rebate will be long gone after the first wave of employees, current owners, and high optioned builds are gone. So the odds of getting the base model with a rebate are very, very slim.

On top of that:
-I expect super charging to be an add on,could be upwards of $2K, maybe $1k
-Auto pilot will most certainly be an add on, and up to ~2.5-3k for gen 1, maybe more for gen 2 if its around then
-Charger in garage could be 1.5k for those who need it (i can do trickle charging for most days, with a top off at work if I need to)

Those are the Tesla Essentials, right there. Almost everyone will want them

Beyond that its car color, roof, wheels, battery, performance ... Dozens of thousands of potential add ons that make a Tesla a Tesla that casual fans may not realize they "need" to make it "a Tesla" and arent part of the base car.

 

[Grendal]

I voted 20%. This group will be less tolerant and some might just need the money for other things. Just like for the Model S I expect most will still buy at a later time even if they cancel.

 

[favo]

I'm thinking 25% or so. Two years is a long time. A lot could change for individuals, Model 3 specifics, and the EV market as a whole in that time. There are some people who reserved "just in case." Some of those will probably cancel in the next week, because of something they see or don't see tonight.

 

[Weezer Fan]

I said 20% too. I think people who waited for this car are probably in a different demographic than S and X buyers. Maybe they don't have a second car for back up, or need a car before this one is available.

 

[ElectricTundra]

Percentage of who? Deposits today? Deposits before the first 3 is delivered? Deposits before Tesla completely catches up with the list and no longer takes reservation deposits (when will this be? 2020?)? Why is cancellations important? The important number is how many they will be able to sell.

Some will certainly experience changing finances or other circumstances that cause them to cancel. There will be other competitive BEV's by the time some are invited to configure and some might jump to one of these (though I'd guess very few).

$1500 for a charger? I'm guessing most will be able to get a 50a plug for $300 - $500 or so. My neighbor drives his volt 94% of the time on electric and just charges overnight w/ a standard 15a outlet. Our house in Marco only has a 15a and that works fine for a couple of months each winter. Few people will need a HPWC or similar.

A Model 3 will cost about $1200/yr less in fuel than a comparable ICE. That adds up over 4 or 5 years ownership. That'll cover a charger and a few options.

Build Quality? I think Elon learned his lesson with the X and won't repeat. Part of this is that the first few thousand will be delivered to employees. This is a thank-you to them but also a great way to work out issues before a 'real' customer takes delivery.

 

[Drivin]

This thread was started from a new member who has never posted before. Looks like a person who has made an investment that Tesla's stock market share price will go down, "shorting the stock." He is using our forum to reduce the losses on his investment, rather than to adding to the discussion.

Wow. You can tell all that from his post?
You should work for the SEC or at least report him for stock manipulation based on your analysis.

I did notice that the stock market noticed his post and severally punished the stock based on his post so obviously this idea that a post can move a stock in either direction is 100% totes legit. (no, that is not what actually happened).

While you are at it, you should also report all those people who are excited about the company since they too may own stock and their excitement is a way to help them being "long on the stock".

 

[Darryl]

I figure generally that the options will be about 1/2 what they are on the Model S/X since the Model 3 will be half of the base Model S/X. But that still makes them very very expensive. The bottom of an X ($70k) to the top of and X ($160k) is $90k. Therefore the cost of option on a full loaded X is the base X 1.3. If you apply this to the Model 3 would mean $35k x 1.3 = $45 which is the cost of options on a full loaded car. This would mean if you got a fully loaded Model 3 the options would be $45 + the base of $35k makes the car $80k.

I agree the percent who request their deposit back will be significantly higher than a Model X. The Model X users waited 3-4 years through many delays but very few dropped out. I think if there are any delays which push the initial production past the Spring of 2018 many will drop out.

Many will drop out if they don't have a chance at the $7,500 federal tax rebate. With current owners having the ability to order two cars each and get preferential treatment and with not only Tesla but Space X employees going to the at the top of the reservation list makes it almost certain very few if any of the average base model purchaser will get the Federal Tax rebate. The more cars which are reserved also means there are more buying loaded cars which moves them up the list which again takes away from those who are ordering base cars getting rebates.

I am afraid that people's expectations are being set so high that they will be disappointed when they see what they are getting for $35k. I think many who think they are going to get a high end luxury car, like the S for $35k when the reality is they are going to get a $35k car for $35k. Yes it is going to be a luxury mid-size all electric car with a range over 200 miles which is 20% smaller than the Model S but I think there are many who think they are going to get all of the features of a Model S. Therefore there are many who expect more and will be disappointed and will drop out.

I personally think Elon Musk is one of the smartest people of our era but he is not a miracle worker.

 

[Ulmo]

This thread was started from a new member who has never posted before. Looks like a person who has made an investment that Tesla's stock market share price will go down, "shorting the stock." He is using our forum to reduce the losses on his investment, rather than to adding to the discussion.

Yes, but we already know the rough % of Model X's that cancelled. It's not new news. If we hide the information, then every time they see us hiding it, they'll say "aha!!!!". I consider it something we can say out loud and then they won't be able to use it against us.

 

[AMPd]

A lot of people are oblivious about cars. Driving around in a city and you see most don't pay attention or have no idea what's going on around them, they just want to get where they want to.
Yes, they know the car is electric and I'm sure some will think just plugging it in the garage outlet will charge the car in 30 minutes like with a SC.

You're telling me, there are actually people who will place a deposit on a vehicle without actually knowing how this vehicle works?

Well for starters if you get the most base model possible its still going to be $40,000 after tax, title, license, and delivery. No way to escape those so the "real" base price is $40k. Full Rebate will be long gone after the first wave of employees, current owners, and high optioned builds are gone. So the odds of getting the base model with a rebate are very, very slim.

On top of that:
-I expect super charging to be an add on,could be upwards of $2K, maybe $1k
-Auto pilot will most certainly be an add on, and up to ~2.5-3k for gen 1, maybe more for gen 2 if its around then
-Charger in garage could be 1.5k for those who need it (i can do trickle charging for most days, with a top off at work if I need to)

Those are the Tesla Essentials, right there. Almost everyone will want them

Beyond that its car color, roof, wheels, battery, performance ... Dozens of thousands of potential add ons that make a Tesla a Tesla that casual fans may not realize they "need" to make it "a Tesla" and arent part of the base car.

What you "want" and what you can get for 35k are two different things, a base model 3 is something you can get for 35k
I understand not being able to escape taxes and fees, except in states you can...

 

[neroden]

WAG: Since Tesla cornered about a fourth of the luxury, 75k USD market in the US, I give them a fair to good chance of doing the same with the 40k USD domestic sedan market.

I like your WAG, but I don't think Tesla is done cornering the luxury 75k+USB market in the US. I think the lack of an SUV model was preventing them from doing so, and I also think that there are still people who *haven't heard of Tesla*, believe it or not...

 

[neroden]

I agree the percent who request their deposit back will be significantly higher than a Model X.

Yeah, but less than 3% of Model X reservers dropped out. I guess the percent will be much much higher -- like 18%, maybe. ;-)

Which is really insignificant for purposes of figuring out how many factories they need to build!

 

[EinSV]

I think the number of cancelled reservations will be low. When the Model 3 comes out there will not be a car in the same price range that will be able to remotely match its capabilities, with or without the tax credit.

As with the S/X some will cancel if they decide they need to replace a car before the Model 3 is available, their financial circumstances change, etc. There also could be a few short-term cancellations if people don't like the styling they see tonight.

But I see no reason that the rate of cancellations will be higher than with the S or X. If anything the folks who were enthusiastic enough about Tesla to wait in the long lines we saw today are less likely to cancel than with the S or X.