TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Percentage of People Deferring

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by sooner, Apr 19, 2018.

  1. sooner

    sooner Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Ohio
    This is an important number for a late reservation holder like myself (August, 2016), as the reservation numbers certainly skew positively on March 31, 2016, and weened off to a trickle after the first several days of it being live. (For those who do not know what a positive skew is: http://www.numericalexpert.com/tutorials/statistics/images/rskew.gif with count being number of reservations per day). My reservation stands between 373,000 and 455,000, based on the last date reported total count, and the total count reported at July 2017 event. After the July event, the reservation amount per day likely increased significantly from prior.

    For reservations before mine it seems to be that over 10,000 employees reserved cars (source: Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations). Given that it that end of last year they had exhausted that number for first production vehicles ones, conjectured that 1770 or so took the invite to configure and used it. They rest deferred. This works out to be around 18%.

    This does include first wave of owners cashing in invites. In my opinion, a current owner of a non-model 3 Tesla generally skews towards being a wealthier person, so more likely to take the First Production Vehicle, or wait for AWD or Performance models.

    On this site, I have observed a deferral rate of about 1/3, choosing to wait for AWD, Performance, cancelling, or waiting for the 35k version. This is based on unscientific method of myself going through posts and totaling number of posts stating deferment or cancellation. I firmly believe that people on this site are more vested into the Model 3, and are more likely to take the invitation when they receive, than those that are not on this or other Model 3 discussion websites, or defer for the AWD/Performance.

    In my opinion, the general public are waiting for the 35k version that was promised and fired up the enthusiasm. So those people are likely to defer. Additionally, I know of several reservation holders who will not be able to purchase the car when their number comes up (for various reasons). Personal opinion is deferment percentage is going to be 2/5 or greater for reservation holders overall.

    Cancellations likely stand at around 1/10 of reservations made.

    Looking for input on calculated estimates and observations that both support or conflict with my conclusions. Based on my choice to purchased First Production, trying to get a good feel for when number would come up, and where it falls in terms of Tax Credit, etc. I feel that my actual production number may be in the 80-120k vin number, but that may be an aggressive estimate. If you have insight on number of people deferring, would also like to hear that.

    Note: not including the possibility that AWD or performance start manufacturing prior to my invitation. I sincerely hope that does not occur, only out of personal reasons, since like most people here, I also really want the car.
     
  2. ConcordeSST

    ConcordeSST Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2016
    Messages:
    328
    Location:
    Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
  3. Arpe

    Arpe Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2017
    Messages:
    95
    Location:
    Denmark
    Most of 1st day non-owners have gotten their invites. The next groups are quite small. For you the big question will be; when will other configurations open. When they open at 5k Model 3's per week you will sort of get back in the line - i guess. If first production contentious several months further you will probably get your car rather soon.

    From the spreadsheet below,
    Tesla invites.png
     
    • Informative x 1
  4. eSpiritIV

    eSpiritIV Member

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2016
    Messages:
    434
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Next available option will be AWD+LR for sure. My service person confirmed that via email two days ago. Not sure if PUP will be required as an option, with White seats as another option. SR+RWD probably next, then AWD SR in 2019.

    Sadly this leaves people who want full tax credit to buy SR RWD Existing owners, or fully decked out AWD LR all owners. The rest of everyone will not get the full tax credit this year.
     
  5. SoCalGuy

    SoCalGuy Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2012
    Messages:
    1,414
    Location:
    So Cal & New York, NY
    I'm one of the ones who got invite to configure and have decided to wait on info for AWD/P costs and performance specs. I made the choice to wait after driving an M3 for a day (rented a Feb 2018 build).
     
    • Like x 1
  6. SMAlset

    SMAlset Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2017
    Messages:
    8,070
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    I've deferred for AWD. I think before they reach their 200,000 Federal tax credit limit, Tesla will have at least invited everyone who has a reservation to buy a Model 3 at the full Fed. tax credit point in time. Of course not everyone wants that option or can afford the option of car available then but at least the invite went out.

    It's really unfortunate that this Congress IMO doesn't see the need to encourage EV sales beyond the numbers they have previously alloted. When they first came out with the credit the batteries were pretty pathetic in range (with maybe the only exception being Tesla) and only desirable to a limited number of low-mileage drivers. I have no doubt EVs will soar in usage more so in other nations leaving the US behind, just like a number of other areas we use to lead in.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  7. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    2,160
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    I was online pre-reveal reservation holder. I estimated my number to be 110,000-120,000. I received invite yesterday. Take that data for whatever it is worth.
     
  8. sooner

    sooner Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Ohio
    It seems likely that if I do fall into the 90k range for VIN, that 2/3 of reservation holders are deferring.
     
  9. adaptabl

    adaptabl Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2018
    Messages:
    776
    Location:
    Canada
    From those charts it looks like they are about 2/3 thru the reservations. The majority of all are first or second day reservations.
     
  10. F_T_K

    F_T_K Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    52
    Location:
    Minnesota, USA
    I got my invite to configure on March 22nd, but I'm waiting for all-wheel-drive and air suspension. My current estimate is just "Late 2018".
     
  11. calvinvle

    calvinvle Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2018
    Messages:
    62
    Location:
    San Leandro
    You're not concerned about losing half of the Federal tax credit?
     
  12. sreams

    sreams Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2017
    Messages:
    732
    Location:
    Sacramento, CA
    Gotta subtract non-US reservation holders from that number.
     
  13. F_T_K

    F_T_K Member

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2016
    Messages:
    52
    Location:
    Minnesota, USA
    Nope. I would rather wait for the car I want, rather than settle for something less than what I want.

    I can totally understand why people might order earlier, that $7500 is a nice chunk of change.
     
  14. gbrgbr

    gbrgbr Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    112
    Location:
    texas
    add to reasons for deferring: broken leg, unable to drive for 12 weeks
     
  15. alseTrick

    alseTrick Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    1,645
    Location:
    Florida, USA
    You think every U.S. reservation holder will receive their configuration invite by the time Tesla hits that 200k tax credit threshold?
     
  16. sooner

    sooner Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Ohio
    Been there, broke my fibula in early February. Also tore part of deltoid ligament on other side, and had to get a plate with nine screws. While I did not receive an invite during that time, I would have deferred temporarily. Wish you a speedy recovery and some comfortable chairs with a good place to prop your leg up.

    I actually do think that all reservation holders up to at least July 2018 ('production' start) will get an invite. I do not think that they will all take delivery of their car in the frame needed to get the full tax credit, even if they order immediately.
     
  17. alseTrick

    alseTrick Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    1,645
    Location:
    Florida, USA
    So if Tesla holds off on 200k until Day 1 of Q3 (they've got to be close, right?), let's say, you both believe that ~300k American reservation holders will all be invited by the end of June?
     
  18. juanmedina

    juanmedina Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    1,523
    Location:
    Greenville, SC
    I agree 100%. $3500 is a lot of money but if I am not going to get exactly what I want is not worth it.
     
    • Like x 1
  19. sooner

    sooner Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Ohio
    Not before the 200k delivery, but before the tax credit runs out. I did not read it as every single person will get an invite before 200k, because that does not end the credit. That number only starts the count down to end the full credit, so getting an invitation before that point is the same as getting one at the start of the next quarter after hitting 200k deliveries in terms of how much can be received from it.

    Hitting 200k does not end the tax credit, which has been discussed on this and many other forums endlessly. But TL;DR - When they deliver their 200,000 vehicle, the rest of the quarter full credit and the next quarter full credit. Following two quarters, half credit. Following two quarters, quarter credit. So yes, I think every single domestic person who reserved before July 2018 will receive an inivite to configure before the full credit timeline is done. That is at least 5 months from now (May 2q2018, June 2q2018, July 3q2018, August 3q2018, September 3q2018), likely 8 months if it is not reached until start of 3q 2018.
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC