This is an important number for a late reservation holder like myself (August, 2016), as the reservation numbers certainly skew positively on March 31, 2016, and weened off to a trickle after the first several days of it being live. (For those who do not know what a positive skew is: http://www.numericalexpert.com/tutorials/statistics/images/rskew.gif with count being number of reservations per day). My reservation stands between 373,000 and 455,000, based on the last date reported total count, and the total count reported at July 2017 event. After the July event, the reservation amount per day likely increased significantly from prior. For reservations before mine it seems to be that over 10,000 employees reserved cars (source: Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations). Given that it that end of last year they had exhausted that number for first production vehicles ones, conjectured that 1770 or so took the invite to configure and used it. They rest deferred. This works out to be around 18%. This does include first wave of owners cashing in invites. In my opinion, a current owner of a non-model 3 Tesla generally skews towards being a wealthier person, so more likely to take the First Production Vehicle, or wait for AWD or Performance models. On this site, I have observed a deferral rate of about 1/3, choosing to wait for AWD, Performance, cancelling, or waiting for the 35k version. This is based on unscientific method of myself going through posts and totaling number of posts stating deferment or cancellation. I firmly believe that people on this site are more vested into the Model 3, and are more likely to take the invitation when they receive, than those that are not on this or other Model 3 discussion websites, or defer for the AWD/Performance. In my opinion, the general public are waiting for the 35k version that was promised and fired up the enthusiasm. So those people are likely to defer. Additionally, I know of several reservation holders who will not be able to purchase the car when their number comes up (for various reasons). Personal opinion is deferment percentage is going to be 2/5 or greater for reservation holders overall. Cancellations likely stand at around 1/10 of reservations made. Looking for input on calculated estimates and observations that both support or conflict with my conclusions. Based on my choice to purchased First Production, trying to get a good feel for when number would come up, and where it falls in terms of Tax Credit, etc. I feel that my actual production number may be in the 80-120k vin number, but that may be an aggressive estimate. If you have insight on number of people deferring, would also like to hear that. Note: not including the possibility that AWD or performance start manufacturing prior to my invitation. I sincerely hope that does not occur, only out of personal reasons, since like most people here, I also really want the car.