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Performance Model 3 Timeline

When will Tesla deliver the first Performance Model 3?

  • Last week of June

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • First half of July

    Votes: 11 31.4%
  • Second half of July

    Votes: 12 34.3%
  • First half of August

    Votes: 6 17.1%
  • Second half of August

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • First half of September

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Second half of September

    Votes: 1 2.9%
  • Later

    Votes: 2 5.7%

  • Total voters
    35
  • Poll closed .

ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
The first Performance Model 3 delivery timing and the timeline to volume production have implications for:
  1. 2Q18 ASP and gross margin
  2. 3Q18 ASP and gross margin
  3. Timing and timeline to volume production for subsequent products
Please feel free to share your thoughts below the poll.

Thanks!
 

bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,087
Appleton, WI
I'm guessing the 2nd half of July since they have just started the line. I'm also particularly interested in just how many performance versions Tesla can produce in Q3 and Q4 since the demand will likely be there for as much as they can produce. If they can heavily skew towards performance versions along with the LR AWD configuration for these next 2 quarters, the ASP could approach $66-68k. That would be huge for revenue.
 
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ValueAnalyst

Closed
Aug 25, 2016
5,371
11,124
World
I'm guessing the 2nd half of July since they have just started the line. I'm also particularly interested in just how many performance versions Tesla can produce in Q3 and Q4 since the demand will likely be there for as much as they can produce. If they can heavily skew towards performance versions along with the LR AWD configuration for these next 2 quarters, the ASP could approach $66-68k. That would be huge for revenue.

Agreed on ASP, which is deeply underestimated by all bears and majority of bulls at this time.

On your pick of second half of July: My understanding was that production takes 8 to 12 days, followed by another one to two weeks for delivery, which would put first delivery to last week of June or first week of July. What am I missing?
 
Last edited:

bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,087
Appleton, WI
Agreed on ASP, which is deeply underestimated by all bears and majority of bulls at this time.

On your pick of second half of July: My understanding was that production takes 8 to 12 days, followed by another one to two weeks for delivery, which would put first delivery to last week of June or first week of July. What am I missing?
I'm adding a few arbitrary weeks to tame expectations. It's certainly possible they could start deliveries by early July. It would be great if Elon could confirm with the Q2 deliveries announcement in early July that deliveries of performance 3s were starting immediately. I just think that's a little optimistic.
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
16,191
36,521
Oregon
Didn't Elon say that they were planning to have Performance Model 3s in Tesla stores for test drives by the end of the month? If so, that would likely mean that customer deliveries will start in early July.

OK I mis-remembered the tweet from June 2nd a little: "Model 3 Performance order page progressively rolling out to reservation holders over the next week or so. It’s a really great car. Not saying that lightly. Test drive is a mindwarp. Aiming to have these as our first test drive Model 3 cars in stores within 4 to 6 week’s." But 4 weeks would be June 30th... So I am going to stick with first deliveries start in the first half of July.

I think they are diverting production to Canada and stores for test drives to delay the 200,000th US delivery, which makes perfect sense.
 
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