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Performance Model 3 Timeline

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ValueAnalyst, Jun 9, 2018.

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When will Tesla deliver the first Performance Model 3?

Poll closed Jun 16, 2018.
  1. Last week of June

    1 vote(s)
    2.9%
  2. First half of July

    11 vote(s)
    31.4%
  3. Second half of July

    12 vote(s)
    34.3%
  4. First half of August

    6 vote(s)
    17.1%
  5. Second half of August

    1 vote(s)
    2.9%
  6. First half of September

    1 vote(s)
    2.9%
  7. Second half of September

    1 vote(s)
    2.9%
  8. Later

    2 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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    The first Performance Model 3 delivery timing and the timeline to volume production have implications for:
    1. 2Q18 ASP and gross margin
    2. 3Q18 ASP and gross margin
    3. Timing and timeline to volume production for subsequent products
    Please feel free to share your thoughts below the poll.

    Thanks!
     
  2. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    I'm guessing the 2nd half of July since they have just started the line. I'm also particularly interested in just how many performance versions Tesla can produce in Q3 and Q4 since the demand will likely be there for as much as they can produce. If they can heavily skew towards performance versions along with the LR AWD configuration for these next 2 quarters, the ASP could approach $66-68k. That would be huge for revenue.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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    #3 ValueAnalyst, Jun 9, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2018
    Agreed on ASP, which is deeply underestimated by all bears and majority of bulls at this time.

    On your pick of second half of July: My understanding was that production takes 8 to 12 days, followed by another one to two weeks for delivery, which would put first delivery to last week of June or first week of July. What am I missing?
     
  4. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    I'm adding a few arbitrary weeks to tame expectations. It's certainly possible they could start deliveries by early July. It would be great if Elon could confirm with the Q2 deliveries announcement in early July that deliveries of performance 3s were starting immediately. I just think that's a little optimistic.
     
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  5. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    Didn't Elon say that they were planning to have Performance Model 3s in Tesla stores for test drives by the end of the month? If so, that would likely mean that customer deliveries will start in early July.

    OK I mis-remembered the tweet from June 2nd a little: "Model 3 Performance order page progressively rolling out to reservation holders over the next week or so. It’s a really great car. Not saying that lightly. Test drive is a mindwarp. Aiming to have these as our first test drive Model 3 cars in stores within 4 to 6 week’s." But 4 weeks would be June 30th... So I am going to stick with first deliveries start in the first half of July.

    I think they are diverting production to Canada and stores for test drives to delay the 200,000th US delivery, which makes perfect sense.
     
    • Like x 1
  6. Firewired

    Firewired Member

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    If I could just put my order in... I keep checking obsessively, but that hasn’t worked yet.
     
    • Informative x 1
  7. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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    Would you mind please updating this thread once you can along with your delivery estimate? Thank you.
     
  8. FlyNavy01

    FlyNavy01 Member

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    I ordered May 23rd and it says 12-16 weeks for delivery. So far it's said that for all P and AWD configurations that I've seen.

    Personally, I'm expecting my car mid/late August.
     
    • Informative x 1
  9. bdy0627

    bdy0627 Active Member

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    This is a helpful data point. Thanks!
     
  10. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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  11. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    It hasn't been delivered yet... It could be a test drive vehicle.
     
  12. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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    I celebrate the W before the game ends, so that even if I lose, I've already celebrated :) Let's see when they deliver this puppy.
     
    • Funny x 1
  13. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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  14. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Well-Known Member

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    • Like x 3

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