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Performance Sigma Yield?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by ybbor, Jul 23, 2018.

  1. ybbor

    ybbor Member

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    San Diego
    Sigma % yield Fraction that are preforamce
    1σ 31.7310508% 1/3.1514872
    1.281552σ 20% 1/5
    1.644854σ 10% 1/10
    1.959964σ 5% 1/20
    2σ 4.5500264% 1/21.977895
    2.575829σ 1% 1/100
    3σ 0.2699796% 1/370.398
    3.290527σ 0.1% 1/1,000
    3.890592σ 0.01% 1/10,000
    4σ 0.006334% 1/15,787

    I'm wondering what we might think the yield of the performance motors will be given their increased Sigma.

    If they are 2 sigma better then a standard AWD for instance, then only 1 our of every 21.9 motors produced would qualify for performance... thus they could would have to build 22 normal AWD cars for ever Performance AWD model. If this is even close to the case, I foresee them starting to deliver a lot of non-performance AWD models soon.

    Makes me wonder why they are not delivering a bunch of AWD first, while searching high sigma motors for P, then release batches of P's as high sigma motors are found.

    Sorry if the forum eats my table above.
    Standard deviation - Wikipedia
     
  2. ybbor

    ybbor Member

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    Sigma________% yield_________Fraction that are performance
    1σ___________31.7310508%____1 / 3.1514872
    1.281552σ____20%____________1 / 5
    1.644854σ____10%____________1 / 10
    1.959964σ____5%_____________1 / 20
    2σ__________4.5500264%______1 / 21.977895
    2.575829σ___1%______________1 / 100
    3σ__________0.2699796%______1 / 370.398
    3.290527σ___0.1%_____________1 / 1,000
    3.890592σ___0.01%____________1 / 10,000
    4σ__________0.006334%________1 / 15,787
     
  3. ulrichw

    ulrichw Member

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    The way you use the term "Sigma" is confusing, but given the EPA site's (here - click on the "Specs" tab) evidence that the rear motor in the P has the same output as the rear motor in the RWD, I would say that the number of motors that qualify as P motors is somewhere between 0 and 0.5 sigma of the total (i.e., close to all of the motors will qualify - they'll simply take as many as they need: so demand will be the limit, not the motors).

    Basically, I feel the "bin sorting" is more of a marketing story than an actual process - it was something they could easily fit into existing procedures to create a little more perceived value for the P.
     
  4. P85_DA

    P85_DA Supporting Member

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    I would give this post a rating of —> :confused: ...Tesla needs cash so Ps first
     
  5. Daniel in SD

    Daniel in SD Member

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    Could have the same power but more torque! But yeah, the bin sorting is probably BS. The sigma will correspond exactly to the percentage of performance models they sell. The sum of the motor powers are more than enough to accelerate 0-60 in 3.5s so they're probably limited by the battery or artificially.
     
  6. P85_DA

    P85_DA Supporting Member

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    ....this
     
  7. jdmasters

    jdmasters Member

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    why you assuming its the front motor? or more likely the front inverter? It seems like we just went through ~50k rear motor/inverters
     
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  8. clostridium

    clostridium Supporting Member

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    Exactly - plenty of motors to pick the best from. They could have been doing it all along. Doesn’t mean they have been of course.
     
  9. TurnFast

    TurnFast Member

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    Redmond
    I mean bin sorting or no. It doesn't really matter how they do it. At the end of the day as long as the car is as fast as they advertise you've gotten what you wanted and paid for, regardless of if it's through purely software or there are hardware differences as well.
     
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