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Petroleum Prices Set Records in 2011

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by Robert.Boston, Jan 13, 2012.

  1. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Petroleum Prices Set Records in 2011

    Nice article about a trend that's getting surprisingly little press attention.

     
  2. Mycroft

    Mycroft Life happens

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    Good news for the environment and EVs! Bring on higher gas prices!
     
  3. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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  4. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Nice fit. What're the coefficients on that regression?
     
  5. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    Ooh, and overlay inflation.
     
  6. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    Updated with some new data to take it back to 1980 (I could actually now go back to 1907 but it would take all weekend). Hopefully this answers the questions.


    petrol2.png


    Retail Price Index is one measure of inflation or buying power in the UK.

    As you can see, until 2000 the cost of petrol effectively fell in real terms but has since climbed steeply.
     
  7. Mycroft

    Mycroft Life happens

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    Peak oil, peak oil! :scared: We'll be able to say that we saw it here first. :)

    Seriously though, with China and India rapidly moving from the 3rd world into the 1st world with their billions of population, petrol price has nowhere to go but straight up!

    The EV (and solar power) future's so bright, I've got to wear shades!
     
  8. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    Yeah this started as an excercise to see how much the Ampera might save over its life (assuming things like job location stays the same, etc). These are my circumstances:























































































































































    Current motorway MPG
    32
    Commuting miles per annum
    14136
    Gallons used per annum
    441.75
    kWh to fill EV battery
    11.8
    Miles of EV range
    35
    kWh per mile
    0.337
    Annual electricity inflation
    9%
    Year
    Cost (p/l)
    Cost (£/G)
    Cost p.a.
    EV cost
    2012
    130
    £ 5.91
    £ 2,611
    £ 262
    2013
    130
    £ 5.91
    £ 2,611
    £ 286
    2014
    140
    £ 6.36
    £ 2,811
    £ 311
    2015
    146
    £ 6.64
    £ 2,932
    £ 339
    2016
    155
    £ 7.05
    £ 3,113
    £ 370
    2017
    164
    £ 7.46
    £ 3,293
    £ 403
    2018
    173
    £ 7.86
    £ 3,474
    £ 440
    2019
    182
    £ 8.27
    £ 3,655
    £ 479
    2020
    192
    £ 8.73
    £ 3,856
    £ 522
    2021
    202
    £ 9.18
    £ 4,056
    £ 569
    2022
    213
    £ 9.68
    £ 4,277
    £ 621
    2023
    223
    £ 10.14
    £ 4,478
    £ 676
    2024
    235
    £ 10.68
    £ 4,719
    £ 737
    2025
    248
    £ 11.27
    £ 4,980
    £ 804
    £50,865
    £ 6,820
    Saving
    £44,045




    For comparison I did the same with a Prius MPG:




























































































































































    Current motorway MPG
    60
    Commuting miles per annum
    14136
    Gallons used per annum
    235.6
    kWh to fill EV battery
    11.8
    Miles of EV range
    35
    kWh per mile
    0.337
    Annual electricity inflation
    9%
    Year
    Cost (p/l)
    Cost (£/G)
    Cost p.a.
    EV cost
    2012
    130
    £ 5.91
    £ 1,392
    £ 262
    2013
    130
    £ 5.91
    £ 1,392
    £ 286
    2014
    140
    £ 6.36
    £ 1,499
    £ 311
    2015
    146
    £ 6.64
    £ 1,564
    £ 339
    2016
    155
    £ 7.05
    £ 1,660
    £ 370
    2017
    164
    £ 7.46
    £ 1,756
    £ 403
    2018
    173
    £ 7.86
    £ 1,853
    £ 440
    2019
    182
    £ 8.27
    £ 1,949
    £ 479
    2020
    192
    £ 8.73
    £ 2,056
    £ 522
    2021
    202
    £ 9.18
    £ 2,163
    £ 569
    2022
    213
    £ 9.68
    £ 2,281
    £ 621
    2023
    223
    £ 10.14
    £ 2,388
    £ 676
    2024
    235
    £ 10.68
    £ 2,517
    £ 737
    2025
    248
    £ 11.27
    £ 2,656
    £ 804
    £27,128
    £ 6,820
    Saving
    £20,308

    The 9% for electricity inflation has been pretty constant for a decade.

    So with UK petrol prices, I don't know why Vauxhall (or others) aren't making a bigger deal out of the possible savings. This would be a big selling point for GM across Europe.
     
  9. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    D--suggestion; rebase the two price series to set 1980=100, then plot.
     

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