OK, so the modules, not counting the piping for the coolant loop or the small edges they rest on the sides, are 26 1/2" long and 11 1/4" wide. With the support edges they're about 12" wide. The coolant loop connectors add another ~2".
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It is just not possible.
I like to think of it in terms of hard disk technology where the device works around known acceptable failure rates.
I've often wondered how many points of failure exist in the battery pack using so many (thousands) of cells... I know Tesla touts having fewer moving parts, etc and therefore should be more reliable.... but....
I do realize many of those points of failures wouldn't mean an outright failure, just a diminished capacity.... but...
Since owners don't get to see the actual diagnostics on the pack to identify failed cells/connections, etc... 1.35% loss by failure of a cell here or there could easily be written of as "normal" degradation, and not a failure inside the pack.... and since the owners have no way to verify or refute- they'll just have to live with whatever Tesla decides.
Am I missing anything here?
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Thinking out loud some more.... I wonder if Tesla's pack degradation prediction graphs, etc assume individual cell failures at certain points, or just assume all cells continue to operate normally, but just degrade?
...I'm no statistician, but (all else being equal) isn't the chance of losing 2 cells in the same pack (1/96) ^2 = 0.00011% ?
No. It's .011% (all else being equal). But all else is not equal. Once you lose one cell in a brick then the other cells in that brick are stressed that much harder. The degradation from use becomes exponentially faster in that brick. With time, those other cells and fuses are more likely to fail. They will get hotter, discharged lower, and always have more current flowing through them.
No. It's .011% (all else being equal). But all else is not equal. Once you lose one cell in a brick then the other cells in that brick are stressed that much harder. The degradation from use becomes exponentially faster in that brick. With time, those other cells and fuses are more likely to fail. They will get hotter, discharged lower, and always have more current flowing through them.
The .011% number is hard for me to wrap my mind around. Does that mean over the total life of the pack? 8yrs? per year?I'm no statistician, but (all else being equal) isn't the chance of losing 2 cells in the same pack (1/96) ^2 = 0.011% ? (thanks to hcsharp for catching my error)
The .011% number is hard for me to wrap my mind around. Does that mean over the total life of the pack? 8yrs? per year?
This is the chance of losing two cells and having them both be in the same module of one of the 96 individual modules in the pack.
So, although a single cell loss immediately brings the entire pack capacity down by 1.35%... you could lose a cell in all the remaining 95 modules without losing any more capacity. It would take another cell loss in the same module that had already lost one previously to bring down the pack another 1.35%...
So from that standpoint, it would be at any point over the lifetime of the pack.
Ah, right you are.. my numerical answer was correct, I forgot to then recognize that percentage account's for two of those decimal points.
But I suspect those fuses are sized for to prevent thermal runaway of a battery in case of a short, massive module failure, etc... not the failure of a cell (or two or three), is such that they are going to be affected by that small of a failure.
What could be much worse than a cell short is a bad cell that has excessive internal resistance and won't hold a charge/drains down quickly. This would bring down it's sister cells wired in parallel along with it. Not sure if the BMS would be able to compensate for this. This could possibly lead to complete pack failure if it drained down a whole group of 74 cells in parallel.
... A slower failure. From a pack perspective it would appear that the whole pack is not taking much of a charge anymore and the pack rapidly decays. I guess what I am trying to describe is a cascade failure. I wonder if the pack is susceptible to this?
Isn't it obvious that it is? This has been discussed previously in the Roadster threads. I think it's the Achilles heel of a Tesla battery pack. Most of our batteries will die that way - with most of the cells still in good shape and a few bricks in bad condition. For 2 years I've been trying to think of a good engineering solution to this but haven't come up with anything affordable or cheap enough.
... As for a prototype I built a custom roadster brick that had each cell had it's own battery monitor IC on it, everything was find and dandy.