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Again, there is a balance to be found. You might have misunderstood me about the trade-in price. The price of the used pack is at the same current cost per kilowatt minus degradation, or a "used" penalty if you will. The capacity is whatever Tesla says it has, and believe me, they know. You can't value it at the price originally paid because that would have been more than the cost per kw now. So yes, the owner will take a hit. But then Tesla ultimately wins because they not only get cash, they get a battery pack back to either sell or use elsewhere.
For me, I would pay 7k (twice the price to trade in and buy new going by cost per kw) for the extra 10kwh. Currently, none of the new features make it worthwhile for me to upgrade anything else.
SomeJoe7777
Marginally-Known Member
The pack degradation is not the only thing that reduces the pack value. The warranty on the pack must also be considered and the pack price reduced for it. A new pack might be worth $250/kWh, but that's because the pack has an 8 year warranty. A 4-year old 90 kWh pack with 10% degradation has 81 kWh, but those 81 kWh only have 4 years of warranty left.
Also, it's not like you can take that 81 kWh and add it to some other capacity. The fact that the 81 kWh is as much as can be put in one car also reduces its value because there are other batteries out there with higher capacity. (Just like computer RAM: 8GB DIMMs are worth more per GB than 4GB DIMMs, because using 4GB DIMMs reduces the potential capacity of the computer they're used in).
Finally, the technology advances in the newer packs. These 81 kWh in this pack may not charge as fast as newer packs, they may heat up faster and require more cooling, reducing range, they may not have the upper current limits that new packs do, which reduces potential 0-60 times.
These factors combine to reduce those 81 kWh to a price that's a lot less than $250/kWh, simply because these 81 kWh are less desirable on the open market.
Again, all this can be funnled into the equation. Supercharging rates is a good example of something I hadn't thought of, but my understanding was that only the A packs had the 90kw limitation. As for the rest, it's all noise to the owner. They just want to know they can go xxx miles on a charge. Lastly, Find out a fair warranty to slap on and proceed. Either renew the 8, prorate it, or come up with something original.
Great work! This is pretty much was JB said. He reported that it was a challenging rearrangement of 18650 cells to pack more in. I guessed 9 more cells per group for 7104 + 864 = 7968 or something like that. Surprised that they went to 12 and 8256 total. The added 1152 cells add about 2300 ounces to the pack or about 140 pounds. This raises the weight to around 1400 pounds. You must have some heavy duty equipment to manhadle that kind of weight. Very impressive.
- what does Tesla do with the packs no one wants any more? (The degraded 60).
- warranty was mentioned already.
- need for refurbishment first?
- what if something guess wrong and frys the car (however unlikely).
- shipping costs/storage. Inventory management.
- opportunity lost, if they are battery production limited, why sell the latest/greatest when they could make more selling the entire car?
I know you keep mentioning balance. But the balance your suggesting makes you happy but likely doesn't cover Tesla cost.
I'm sure someday, as powertrain warranty expires, there will be a market for used packs.
Each module gets another string of cells in parallel with those already there. Less current through each string (and each individual cell).
If I'm understanding correctly.
The 100 pack has 86 cells in parallel. That reduces the current per cell by 16 percent compared to the 85 and 90 packs, which had 74 cells in parallel. That should make the 100 pack more robust to launches.
GSP
Right, but the max output during a launch went up from 1520 to 1760. That's a 16% increase in the power pulled from the pack...
-what does Tesla do with the packs no one wants any more? (The degraded 60).
Warranty replacements for old 60's, module recycling for Powerwalls/Powerpacks, module replacement for any battery being refurbed/rebuilt (cells are already installed in the module, might save time and effort), on-site storage for Gigafactory (why produce new if you are supply constrained, easy stream for re-purposing coming right back at you). I really like the last one because they are going to need a ton of battery storage for just the factory and those cells would be perfect for that application. Tesla doesn't care about 5% battery degradation, they will just add 5% more capacity at literally a fraction of the cost.
- need for refurbishment first?
Did it need done anyway under the 8 year battery warranty? If not, certify the mileage/capacity and sell as is for a price. I mean, it's essentially double dipping. If they thought it was going to last 8 years anyway, they've already built that cost into the original sale. Then someone comes along and all Tesla has to do is say "Yep, it's still going to last 8 years, but we might have to cover it beyond that for an extra 2-4. Pay us $500-1000".
- what if something guess wrong and frys the car (however unlikely).
8 year battery warranty. Assumed risk that it would have behaved in the new car just like the old one.
- shipping costs/storage. Inventory management.
Terribly expensive, I'll pay the $800 to ship my battery to you via UPS ground though. But Tesla charges a "destination" fee to the customer to cover shipping 2 batteries 1-way each.
- opportunity lost, if they are battery production limited, why sell the latest/greatest when they could make more selling the entire car?
It won't be like that forever. How big is that Gigafactory supposed to be again? As production ramps up, I would assume that they would have more resources to devote to a revenue stream like this. Again, from a cost per kwh perspective, they would be making double on these deals (at least on those extra 10kwh) than they would other wise. We could be talking about 15-30% margin on battery upgrades alone.
-I know you keep mentioning balance. But the balance your suggesting makes you happy but likely doesn't cover Tesla cost.
Again, I'm not saying they do it for free and no where previously did I suggest they do. Based on the cost breakdown I mention, they would be making a $500 per kwh (double the cost) on that extra 10kwh, plus the customer is paying for install, certification, shipping, etc. They certainly aren't losing money on the deal.
-I'm sure someday, as powertrain warranty expires, there will be a market for used packs.
Yes, but I'd rather be able do something official through Tesla, wouldn't you?
ok, let me try this again.
Selling a 100kwh pack for 25k new. 25% profit gives a cost of $18,750.
Now if a brand new 100 pack is worth that to Tesla, what is a used 90 degraded to 80 worth? Even at100% value it's worth a 'cost' of 15k. But it's not worth new value because it's used. So 10-12k. Add labor and risk and cost of business... you'd have to charge a guy upgrading 15k+
Any time we get customers asking to trade in used we deal w this. They forget our cost of new is half retail so used has to be worth like 25% of new. People get so mad and we don't want the rep of selling used. We just say we don't take trade ins.
Selling a 100kwh pack for 25k new. 25% profit gives a cost of $18,750.
Now if a brand new 100 pack is worth that to Tesla, what is a used 90 degraded to 80 worth? Even at100% value it's worth a 'cost' of 15k. But it's not worth new value because it's used. So 10-12k. Add labor and risk and cost of business... you'd have to charge a guy upgrading 15k+
Any time we get customers asking to trade in used we deal w this. They forget our cost of new is half retail so used has to be worth like 25% of new. People get so mad and we don't want the rep of selling used. We just say we don't take trade ins.
A couple of issues with this. Tesla has a firm policy that the service centers do not install used parts. When I got my seats swapped for next gen seats there was a guy in there with an early S who said his leather seats were wearing out and was interested in my multipattern seats. The service manager was standing there and told him if he wanted my old seats he'd have to find someone else to put them in because it was corporate policy they will never put a used part in a car.
Another thing is Tesla does not believe that used battery packs are appropriate for re-use and believe the batteries should be recycled and made into new batteries. Apparently Elon has done a bunch of calculations and thinks remaking them into new batteries is the best way to go. You'd have to ask him why though.
BTW great analysis of the 100 pack
Owners get refurb batteries and drive units all the time.....
Jrogville
Member
Going from usable capacities of 81.8kWh to 98.4kWh, a 20% increase, for $3,000. I wouldn't call that just a 'marketing trick'.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Tesla had considered a battery resale program, but they found it would not make sense given the dropping cost of new battery cells. Keep in mind the target is below $100/kWh, Tesla's current pack costs were quoted at below $190/kWh early last year.
Right now it makes sense to reuse packs by refurbishing them (since they have no choice but to take the back pack under warranty), but trying to assign a significant core value to them would be difficult.
Your cell degradation percentage calculation for value is also way too optimistic. Rather there will first be a huge cut because of used part depreciation, then a cut from newer packs being more competitive. Going with some more realistic assumptions, say the pack has been used 50k miles (I'm using this because the following values are available at this mileage): the car will lose 28% in value by this time, pack degrades around 5%. So core value will be at most $190/kWh * 72% = $137/kWh. The pack most likely would be an 85kWh, so valued at 80kWh with 5% loss, for a core value of ~$11k.
In case you think that core value is low, Nissan offers only a $1000 core value for their 24kWh pack. Even at half capacity, that is only $83/kWh.
The marginal retail price of a Tesla pack is $300/kWh ($3000 for the 10kWh upgrade), so 100kWh would be $30000. Add in the other costs around $2000 (the destination, installation, certification, etc) and that works out to $32k. $32-11k = $21k to do the upgrade. That's high enough that it will make people seriously consider putting that $21k toward a new Tesla and selling their old one.
The other driving force is that service centers are already swamped handling regular service issues, plus the battery packs are worth far more money installed in a new car than upgrading an older car (which also discourages the owner from buying a new one).
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