We are going to have a major electric shortage!!!!
To replace both Pilgrim and Brayton with Solar will need:
Giga solar
Giga battery
Just Giga....
By the way, I do own a 12.2 kWh SunPower solar system on my house.
My conclusion is that the closure will not result in any electricity shortages but instead cause yet more natural gas generation to be built, worsening New England's carbon footprint.
Firstly, there's absolutely no requirement for MA to have enough generation to meet its electricity needs. MA is part of the control area operated by ISO New England, which has the job of operating the entire New England grid. The New England grid is also strongly interconnected to Québec and New York, plus a line over to New Brunswick; these interconnections allow New England to tap thousands of MW of capacity located outside the six-state region.
ISO-NE has many roles, two of which are most relevant in this discussion:
* Transmission planning
* Operation of capacity markets
As the transmission planner, ISO-NE works with the utilities and state regulators to ensure that the high-voltage transmission system can move available power where it's expected to be needed on the grid. In its 2014 system plan, ISO stated that it was "tracking an EPA rulemaking updating radiation standards for commercial nuclear power plants ... and assess its potential impact on the remaining nuclear generators in New England." So undoubtedly planners had already played through a Pilgrim shut-down scenario and will move to get upgrades in place to respond to Pilgrim's announced closure before the plant goes off-line.
ISO-NE's capacity market operates three years forward to secure commitments to meet future needs for generation capacity in the region. Even with the Brayton retirement, the
auction for the 2018–2019 capacity year started with 1,907 MW of excess supply offers, and there's more in the interconnection queue for 2019 (when Pilgrim is expected to go off-line), so it appears that there is more than enough capacity waiting in the wings to fill Pilgrim's shoes.
Of the 37,533 MW that took on capacity obligations for 2018–19, 2,092 MW are from planned generation—nearly all of which uses natural gas (2,075 MW) vs. solar (16 MW). (Note that the 16 MW of solar is its
capacity value, which is something like 1/4 of the
nameplate. A critical feature of the auction that I developed was the ability of solar farms, which generate more in the summer than winter, to partner with fossil-fueled plants, which have higher capacity in the winter owing to lower ambient temperatures, to offer in a composite bid to cover the full year. Otherwise solar's capacity value would be limited by its worst month.) Looking carefully at the
interconnection queue in New England, what's slated to come on line in the second half of 2018 onward?
* 12,232 MW total in queue
* 3,537 MW dual-fuel (NG with oil backup)
* 2,418 MW NatGas
* 4,090 MW of increased interties (mostly to Canada)
* 2,150 MW of wind (excluding Cape Wind)
* 37 MW of waste disposal
So there's a lot of wind that
could come on line, but that all depends on federal policy replacing or renewing the ITC. Otherwise, or unless natural gas gets pricy, we'll just see more gas burned to replace Pilgrim.
