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Plea for Moderation in Investing and Posting

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FluxCap, Oct 17, 2013.

  1. FluxCap

    FluxCap Active Member

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    Hi folks,

    Now that the debt crisis seems to be behind us for at least the near future, I'd like to take a moment of pause to reflect on a trend I've seen lately in which newer (sometimes younger), less experienced and more "emotional" investors are commenting more frequently on the movement of this stock definitively. It is apparent that many here have no formal education in corporate finance, statistics, accounting, microeconomics, macroeconomics, or any of the other disciplines normally associated with professional investment management. It also seems like many have no more than a year's experience investing in anything other than Tesla Motors. I see this as dangerous ground to be on.

    When I said I few days ago that I was "all in," I now worry that I have misled a few of our younger, less experienced forum members. First, I am only "all in" on my disposable investment dollars which are not needed to support my lifestyle/budget at all. I believe it is irresponsible to risk one's life savings gambling on any one investment, unless one is prepared to lose everything and survive. Personal finance management is something outside the scope of this forum to teach, but it is critical to any investment strategy.

    Second, I have over 20 years investment experience, a graduate degree in business, and an intimate knowledge of modern financial management of disruptive technologies and the market forces that work around that. I know these are public forums, but when I see that less experienced investors are reading my discussions with others here that are as experienced as I am or more, and then risking their savings accounts based on some unrealistic expectation that they "can't lose," I will hesitate to share further information. And I suspect other experienced investors will, as well.

    So please comment and invest carefully friends. I'd like to keep the conversations here based soundly in facts, not opinions or guesses, and I'd also like younger members to benefit not just from this source of learning about how to invest wisely.

    Happy investing everyone, and please -- be careful, thoughtful and considerate. And if you are new, please do yourself the kindness of studying further before risking everything you have.

    A decent and free place to start might be Khan Academy's excellent primers. Beyond that though, you will need books and courses. This could be of interest to some of you. You don't need a top-20 MBA to invest, but you do yourself a disservice if you don't at least read a few books or take a few courses while you're young and relatively unencumbered.

    That's all I wanted to say -- now go TSLA!

    Cheers,
    Flux
     
  2. Jeepinjake

    Jeepinjake Member

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    Flux, that's great insight. I believe it was me that started the recent talk about young investors and "going all in". I've been lurking mostly and just jumped in to say hi and take a quick gauge on on the types of investors here. For a long time I've been searching for a group of truly knowledgeable investors online who discuss the topic of Tesla rationally (for the longest time I was stuck listening to the crud on the yahoo forums!).

    As I said in my first post, I'm here to listen and learn. I'll avoid any more posts that come across as, "Hey I'm young and I gambled a bunch of money on Tesla now I feel rich!"

    With that said, I have the capacity to think for myself and make rational investments, despite what any members say on this board. I asked what other members meant by "all in" because I was genuinely curious.

    Thanks again for the quality insight.
     
  3. arashlzy

    arashlzy Member

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    Nice Post Jake,

    I think what it boils down to is matter of speech. Flux said " all in " and if you knew him and where having a conversation with him in person, maybe you could have guessed that he hasn't sold everything he owns and bet it on TSLA. But this is the internet and anonimity is abound, so maybe Flux was being foolish. It could have gone either way.

    I would encourage Flux not to limit his posts and insights because of this. Of the millions of shares of TSLA that change hands every week, and the billions of $$ that amounts to, the # of members here and their abilities are a drop in the bucket. If someone has opened a brokerage account and willing to place every dime they have on a stock based on a TMC post they don't need a financial manager, they need a psyc eval. Then maybe a financial manager.

    Best of luck to all of us, and Im glad the users and posts here and informative and friendly. I've looked through YAHOO message boards, nothing but people with nonsense comments, it does make for some funny reading though.
     
  4. sub

    sub Member

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    Everyone has to take responsibility for their own actions. I read all the information from the more experienced and knowledgeable investors, but I have yet to follow anything they have recommended or executed. I test drove the car, decided buying stock was a good investment, and went all in with all my disposable income, meaning if it disappears tomorrow I would be bummed of course but it wouldn't affect my life in the short or long term. Since I was already "all in" before I got here, I can't hold anyone else accountable! Not young unless 40 is still considered young. I have bought and read multiple books on options since joining TMC, before joining I was only interested in owning shares. However, I was not willing to follow other's advice here without knowing exactly what I was doing for myself. Happy to see we have an earnings date, trying to figure out how best to play the volatility.
     
  5. Wenche

    Wenche Member

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    I really hope you will keep on sharing further information. I really appreciate your views :smile:
    I agree in your thoughts and worries about the less experienced members of the TMC, and I expect they will listen to your advises.
    I even think that some of them may have misunderstood this tread, as in my opinion this is not the place to post every trade you did on TSLA or options, because there are other treads like newbie options and even advanced options tread to cover these trades.
    I am following this tread closely, and I find you and your fellow experienced traders views, as an excellent source of information.
    Lately I have found this tread disturbed by a lot of noise (emotional, guesses) from newer members.
    I think it is important to keep up the good quality level that this tread has had for a long time.
    For the less experienced; think twice, before you post in this tread.
    It is not my intension to offend someone, but only to give my support to keep this tread on a high quality level.
    Good luck with your trades to all of you :smile:
     
  6. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    I agree with this. Posts like "come on lets finish the day at $185" are not useful and only clutter up the thread. This thread has lost a lot of great contributors, because of all the nonsense posts.

    If you don't have anything of value to add then please do not post, because it does a lot of harm. I stopped posting in this thread, because I don't feel like typing for 10 minutes only to see my post fall 3 pages back just 15 minutes later.

    A lot of useless posts in this thread. I agree with Wenche, if you don't have anything of value to add then please don't post.

    More useless posts lead to less useful posts.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I agree with this too. The easy money has already been made on TSLA. It is not going to be that easy anymore. A lot of people made a lot of money, because TSLA went up 500%, and options were also significantly cheaper due to low IV.

    TSLA will not go up 500% again next year and options are super expensive because of high IV. There is no chance that you are going to make it big buying call options. You might make a small gain, but they will not make you rich. The risk/reward is not there anymore.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Sorry to single you out, but I just wanted to use this as an example to point out what I am talking about:

    This is a low quality post that is misleading and quite frankly wrong. Yes, SCTY did announce the day of its earnings announcement today, but that is not the reason the stock went up.

    SCTY got upgraded at Morgan Stanley with a very high price target of $68 and that is the only reason why it was going up and not because of the announcement.

    This is what I think Wenche was referring to when she talked about low quality posts.

    The other day someone pulled up an SEC document showing that JB added 75 shares of TSLA. A lot of people commented on him buying the stock, but that is not what happened. If you don't know how to read and SEC document then don't comment on it (unless you want to ask a question to help you understand).

    If this continues then all of the quality posters will stop posting here and it will be a bunch of useless information.

    Eventually TSLA is going to correct hard and nobody is going to see it coming, because there won't be any quality members left posting here.

    A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money.
     
  7. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    I agree with this somewhat. On that same note, it was probably natural because of the influx of visitors this site has gotten since "the run." Unfortunately it can't be stopped. I think "easy money" is kind of subjective and think there is quite a bit of room to run, but that probably belongs in the long term thread.

    I hope the great contributors don't stop posting, because that would be a darn shame. You know who you are Kevin, CapOp, curt, sleepy, citizen T, etc. I do think there still needs to be a little jibber jabber to keep the mood light and sometimes bring us back to our sanity. Often times it's the "meaningless" posts that confirmed my actions.

    On that note, to bring us back to topic. I think what we've been seeing is a flight to opportunities that got cheap and booked some profits. It's the natural swing of things. It's really unrealistic to expect all green all day. I'm comfortable with this price action as it brings us to a more realistic price Pre-q3. I am going to stick my $220 EOY target only because well have greater accuracy of 2014 guidance and visibility into to margins. Next year I'm going to call a run to $500 as that is pretty much Elon's metric in his options agreement to get to a sub $50B market cap size. May or may not book some profits... Depends on tax and other opps.
     
  8. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    In June it took us 5 weeks to fill up 100 pages of posts
    In July 4 weeks
    In August 3 weeks
    In September 2 weeks
    In October 1 week.

    And the quality is going down because of this.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I am more worried about the factually incorrect posts such as:

    SCTY went up yesterday because they announced earnings date so maybe TSLA will go up tomorrow because they announced earnings date (once again: SCTY went up because of Morgan Stanley upgrade to $68)

    These kinds of posts are dangerous, because some people will think this is true and make bad investment decisions.

    I know that growth on TMC is inevitable, but I would like to encourage new members to read and learn. Every investor is a genius in a bull market, and it is easy to get over confident and think you know what you are talking about.

    Heck, I am still not sure if I know what I am talking about. I am not yet sure if I am just being lucky or if I am really on to something here. That is why I encourage everyone to do their own research.
     
  9. slavi

    slavi Member

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    I hope you don't believe the quality in this forum is the only reason the stock price is at the current level.
     
  10. Jonathan Hewitt

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    That's not at all what he's saying. He's saying a lot of people have been able to benefit during TSLA's rise thanks to people in this forum. He's 100% right on that.
     
  11. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    I am saying that the quality in this forum prior to Q1 earnings report (I was unfortunately not a part of this forum back then) allowed people to make informed investment decisions to make a lot of money on options. The research was top notch and I know at least one person who started with $4k and now has $400k just 6 months later.

    When the quality of posts goes down, all of the quality posters will disappear. I don't see Curt posting here anymore, nor do I see DaveT posting here.

    TSLA will probably continue going up for a while and everybody will continue buying calls. At first it is going to work, but eventually TSLA will go through an extended period of funk and a lot of people will never see this coming. Because all of the quality posters will be gone and there won't be anyone left to warn those who will be left holding the bag.

    This truly is an amazing community, but the quality is slowly going down and I fear that it will only get worse (as it always happens with all forums).

    - - - Updated - - -

    I can see why you read it that way. What I meant to say is that TSLA will correct hard and there won't be any quality posters left to warn the unsuspecting before this happens. A lot of people will lose a lot of money and some will get wiped out.
     
  12. FluxCap

    FluxCap Active Member

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    I'm glad folks have digested what I said above, but let's not get too carried away -- I think we've all been rattled by the events of the past couple weeks, and it may take a little time (at least for me) to recover from that whirlwind.

    The good news?

    Tesla Motors remains a fundamentally strong force of a company whose time has come. That is why most of us came here in the first place -- more to participate in something historic rather than exploit it for sheer profit. I still believe this company will continue to change the world for the better, and it's only getting started. If you're long for these reasons, try to keep your eyes firmly focused on the bright future.

    Meanwhile, in this thread, I'd encourage newcomers to do their research on the events that shape movements in TSLA's price carefully, and learn before contributing -- it will make contributions that much more valuable, that much more appreciated, and will preserve the integrity of this forum. As sleepy said, two separate people posted about the quarterly earnings call time, which has been on the calendar for months. No one posted about the AT&T data partnership announcement. The former is not news that affects the price today, the latter might be. This is kind of what I'm talking about.

    Let's keep it classy, informed and keep our eyes on the prize.

    Happy investing everyone.
     
  13. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    I'll agree with sleepy. A while back Curt suggested dialing back some of the noise in this thread, it was a good suggestion, though some disagreed.
     
  14. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    True, at the end of the day though, thats up the individual to filter out the noise. I think Curt stopped posting because this thread semi turned into the newbie options thread ( he mentioned it a few posts back ). I know exactly what you are talking about though. I had friends recently follow my trade moves and they have done handsomely and the euphoria kicks in and they try to attribute every piece of news to a movement. It just doesn't work like that, but it's human nature to try and rationalize. Man I wish I turned 4k into 400k, but my risk tolerance at the time wasn't high and I wasn't into options back then. I think we all got a taste of what a potential correction would be like back when we hit the 170 level back in the fire time and definitely brought back the feeling of risk like Flux mentioned.

    To the post about the earnings date. It was an estimate prior to the announcement today.
     
  15. SwedishAdvocate

    SwedishAdvocate Active Member

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    Can’t you just split this thread into two from now on. One thread where things can be more social with posts like "come on lets finish the day at $185", and another where everything that isn’t pure quality gets moved to some ‘random chit-chat’ kind of thread.

    Just a suggestion.
     
  16. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    A lot of chaff cause many are treating the short term thread like a chat room.
     
  17. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    #17 Chickenlittle, Oct 17, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2013
    I have been investing in tsla since 2012 and heavily into options all of 2013. I believe I mirror a lot of people here in that we didn't listen to others because if we did listen to the majority we would not have had the success we have had. Hitching your ride to others success was not what drew us here and probably doesn't influence this set of investors. Still have leaps but not replacing them as they approach strike dates. I agree premiums too high.

    Still try to read teas leaves and am a bit spooked by absence of tweets. I am sure others are taking money off the table as I am but not for tweets, analysts recommendation or posts. I have taken 60% of funds out which still means I have 16 times the original capital of my original investment in tesla . more than half of that in stock and not options. Win or lose with upcoming reportwill continue moving in that direction. Following the crowd was not how we acted. Months ago I posted a warning about investors without obvious experience following advise on which options to buy emulating a frequent posters strategy. Particularly struck with one post asking which strike price to buy. If you have to ask you shouldn't be buying options. Funny but this frequent poster was the first to agree with my post while he was urging others to follow him. I changed my posting to my new name which has reflected my more timid strategy.

    I am am not concerned about the volume of posters and posts I read here. The volume of these is in itself informative. Have always had to filter out an incredible volume of nonsense when reading about tesla. I do place more weight on some posters but will only accept on faith the "posting,announcements and information" of one and that is musk himself.

    my goal is to only have my original investment amount at risk when the correction does occur
     
  18. Ocelot

    Ocelot Member

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    I really miss Curt's posts. Always seemed so rational and reasonable. Curt come on back!
     
  19. Larken

    Larken Member

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    I do feel a little guilty of posting comments that are not of the highest quality and sometimes things that are unnecessary, like random chit chatter. FluxCap, Wenche and Sleepy, point well taken and I have already gone back and deleted some rubbish and I will use more judgment before posting next time. Thanks for raising this subject though. I think we all want to keep this forum high qualitative.
     
  20. Gtoffo

    Gtoffo Member

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    While I understand why some people write these kind of posts, I get really annoyed by the derailments that "investing is risky business, do it only if you know what you are getting into" kind of posts cause in various threads. Those kind of posts have appeared in various of threads and usually push the entire discussion in an unwanted direction.
    However, some kind of "safeguard" for new users who may read about someone becoming a "teslanaire" overnight and risk everything they have because of us is needed.

    So how about this solution: lets write together a sort of "disclaimer" that we could pin at the top of the forum for new/inexperienced investors/forum members. That way we won't need to reiterate the warnings constantly but can just point out the big yellow warning sign at the top of the page (might also be a healthy reminder for more experienced traders ;-) ).

    Does anybody think this is a good idea? Is it doable?


    p.s. I usually try to add some value when I post something in this forum in an effort to "give back" all the value I've received from it....but I might have gotten carried away in the past and posted some "GO TSLA" posts in the main short-term thread. Sorry about that and I'll stick to the social chat thread for those kind of posts in the future (excellent idea BTW). I'd like to point out though that sometimes it's good to remind ourselves not to take this investing thing TOO seriously. We aren't betting the farm in TSLA (or any other stock for that matter) since we know how risky this is....and I think sometimes it's important to relax a bit, smell the flowers, and not let ourselves get carried away by greed too much.
     

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