Please don't do (better place method) battery swap stations, it's a stupid idea

[Darko]

Tesla isn't Better Place. Battery swap isn't likely to be a range extending solution, IMO. Battery swap will be the answer to the question "What happens if I am miles away from a charger of any kind and run out of juice".

In other words, I think battery swap is a Tesla enhancement to their ranger service. You run out of batteries on your way to Vegas from LA, call their Ranger service, and in a short while you see a Tesla can arrive which instead of spending a bunch of hours trying to charge your battery, simply swaps it for a new one.

Love it! I've been in the doubter camp of a primary battery swap ever since the idea was floated, but I have to say this is the first conceptualization of it that seems to make any real sense to me beyond mere symbolism - it's the equivalent of AAA for EVs. Show me the techiest Go Go Gadget battery swap roadside assistance truck and I'm all for it.

 

[richkae]

Doesn't it matter more the percentage of miles over 200 miles? A quick hop to the grocery store can count as a trip too.
From the data, 1,658.09 million trips out of 233,849.36 million were more than 100 miles, which works out to 0.7% of trips.
However, 357,366.43 million miles out of 2,245,111.45 million miles were more than 100 miles, so 15.9% of miles.
http://nhts.ornl.gov/det/Extraction3.aspx

Over a typical 12k miles per year, that's 1900 miles per year. That's good for about 10 swaps per year.

No its not. Its maybe 5 swaps per year. If 1900 miles was 10 trips of 190 miles, that would be zero swaps. If its 5 trips of 380 miles then its 5 swaps.

 

[moollar]

I think this thread is superfluous until what is ACTUALLY going to happen is announced. At this point, it's all just speculation. There could be something totally from left field regarding what Tesla has in mind to implement as a battery swap solution (Tesla and Elon are good at that).

All we really know at this point is that the Model S has battery swapping capability and that Thursday will bring a demo of how Tesla will do the swap. The only way we can have a proper discussion is when we know all the facts (including HOW a battery swap SOLUTION would be implemented by Tesla, not just the mechanics of performing a battery swap). Just saying "battery swap is stupid" without knowing these facts is almost like saying "electric cars is stupid" (note - bad grammar used on purpose....).

 

[mitch672]

You know Palpatine, I'm glad you are not responsable for innovation & future planning for Tesla.

You might want to read the thread about Teslas CES business, and how utilities will be required to have grid storage starting in a few years. Tesla needs energy storage at the SuperCharger locations, so having spare battery packs availble, they have a business use for them, and they'll likely get paid handsomely for that grid storage business. The SuperSwapper will likely only be deployed in the CARB states for now (where it qualifies for an additional ZEV credit). Tesla is not just in the business of making cars, they seem to be setting up many "shadow" business's in the process, they are going to disrupt a lot more than just the automotive manufacturers, from the looks of it. The SuperSwapper also decreases the SuperCharger rollout cost in very busy locations, as they need much less Capex for 1 SuperSwapper than several SuperChargers (ignoring the battery pack cost which they need anyway for grid buffering/demand charge avoidance and their shadow energy storage business)

complain all you want, I'm going to wait to see what the man has to say.

 

[richkae]

Precisely. Granted, there needs to be a real solution to include this population, it won't come with swapping batteries at remote locations along major highways. It would only work if people had access to them quickly and within short distance of their origin or destination.

I'm all in for making electric cars accessible to everyone, but there needs to be buy-in from major stakeholders like gas station owners (I HIGHLY DOUBT that BP, XOM, et al... will contribute to this) and businesses that will allow charging, more widespread adoption of PV installation (which is a potential windfall for SCTY and others), and municipal, county, and state-wide support of protecting the charging sites so that it becomes less palatable to use ICE cars.

The real solution to this problem are outlets at curbsides and in parking garages of apartment buildings and condos. Most of these structures have electricity within a few feet. A breaker and an outlet and some conduit are a few dollars. I am sure there are many places where 100+ feet of conduit or tearing up concrete would be required - do those last. When Tesla is making 200,000 EVs per year it will still take 100 years to replace the ICE fleet. People who live where it is difficult to add outlets will have to wait.

- - - Updated - - -

You know Palpatine, I'm glad you are not responsable for innovation & future planning for Tesla.

I hope someone just as tenacious is at Tesla every day playing devils advocate for everything they do. If it can't withstand debate and detailed scrutiny its a bad idea. They have access to better data than we do and can make more informed decisions. If they don't use the data available to make good decisions they won't last.

Besides - this debate is fun and good exercise.

 

[InsanityWolf]

Let's say battery swapping does take off and in 4 years, they have the entire country covered.

But you guys do realize the current super-chargers charge at a rate of 200 miles for a 20 minute charge. This is down from a previous time of around 35 to 40 minutes.

Whats to say in 4 years, that time won't be cut down to 10 to 15 minutes, as battery or supercharger technology gets better? Then possibly cut down to 5 to 10 minutes in another 4 years? Then there won't be a need to swap batteries and you'll have wasted millions of dollars that could have went to make more supercharging stations.

Every person that lives in an apartment can just go to a super charging station, as they would a gas station each time they need a fill up. I have no problems waiting 5 to 10 minutes for free gas. You'll need a lot of these stations to cover demand.

Invest money on the future, not an expensive short-term solution.

 

[Palpatine]

You know Palpatine, I'm glad you are not responsable for innovation & future planning for Tesla.

I think part of the problem at Tesla is that Elon Musk is a bit out of touch. Let's face it, the guy has been a millionaire/billionaire for about 15 years or so. So his understanding of someone else's willingness to pay $100 bucks for a battery swap is probably a bit out of touch with reality. And most of those people he talks too on a regular basis also might be either 1) Yes men afraid to challenge Elon in a silly waste of money or 2) also wealthy and out of touch with reality on daily costs.

- - - Updated - - -

Let's say battery swapping does take off and in 4 years, they have the entire country covered.

But you guys do realize the current super-chargers charge at a rate of 200 miles for a 20 minute charge. This is down from a previous time of around 35 to 40 minutes.

Whats to say in 4 years, that time won't be cut down to 10 to 15 minutes, as battery or supercharger technology gets better? Then possibly cut down to 5 to 10 minutes in another 4 years? Then there won't be a need to swap batteries and you'll have wasted millions of dollars that could have went to make more supercharging stations.

Every person that lives in an apartment can just go to a super charging station, as they would a gas station each time they need a fill up. I have no problems waiting 5 to 10 minutes for free gas. You'll need a lot of these stations to cover demand.

Invest money on the future, not an expensive short-term solution.

That is a good point. When the Model X or Gen III come out, the battery technology will likely be further optimized to the point that a 240 kw (or higher) Supercharger is the standard. The refresh of the Model S in a few years would likely also be updated with that battery technology.

So then who is the market for this white elephant network of battery swap stations? Only the people who bought the Model S during the 2012-2014 time frame? 45,000 users of which only 1 in 1,000 on a daily basis travel over 200 miles? So 45 battery swaps per day for the ENTIRE network of stations?

 

[Citizen-T]

Elon has said now that the system will cost $100M at most to roll out to the entire country. That means about $500,000 per station (assume 200 stations to cover the US). Even if we assume that number is completely additive to a Supercharger that already has solar and grid storage, we come to the conclusion that the cost to roll this out to the 50 busiest Supercharger stations (25% of the network) over the next 3 years is $25M (less than $10M a year). That IS pocket change. Write it off as a marketing cost if you like. It is worth at least that much to alleviate some more range anxiety.

If the $12k battery replacement fee is in fact the cost to use the swap network, that means that only some 2,100 owners need to take this option to offset the capital expense for the stations. Conveniently, that is 1 in 10 owners from 2013 alone. If production looks more like 30k units in 2014 and 2015, that's closer to 1 in 40 takers needed.

I think concerns that this is a capital intensive endeavor that is somehow going to hinder progress on the Supercharger network or Gen III are way overblown. Cash is not the limiting factor in either of these programs, the swap network isn't going to require much cash, and Tesla has plenty of cash anyway.

Swapping gets more interesting with Model X and Gen III. Model X has more limited range due to its heavier weight and less favorable coefficient of drag. Gen III will likely have a smaller battery which may not be able to handle Supercharging at the rates that the Model S and X can take it (remember 40kWh Model S wasn't going to be able to Supercharge). It makes sense to start establishing the network now ahead of those offerings. Wouldn't it have been great if the Supercharger network was rolled out ahead of Model S? There was a chicken and egg problem there, not so much with Model X and Gen III.

 

[mitch672]

I think part of the problem at Tesla is that Elon Musk is a bit out of touch. Let's face it, the guy has been a millionaire/billionaire for about 15 years or so. So his understanding of someone else's willingness to pay $100 bucks for a battery swap is probably a bit out of touch with reality. And most of those people he talks too on a regular basis also might be either 1) Yes men afraid to challenge Elon in a silly waste of money or 2) also wealthy and out of touch with reality on daily costs.

Could be, or how about the SuperSwaper actually increases the density of a SuperCharger location, by requiring fewer SuperChargers to be deployed at the site? It also lowers the instantaneous energy demand because the packs being swapped in have already have been charged, and they are not "charging at the same time". Tesla needs the energy storage buffer at busy SuperCharger locations, so I'm not even counting the packs as a cost, they are going to be their either way. If Tesla manages to capture another ZEV credit per Model S manufactured because they have the swappers in CA (and possibly some of the other CARB states), they might get quite a bit of the cost paid for.

I think they've probably analyzed this in much more detail than we can speculate about, and Elon saying he hasn't done any focus groups might be true, but they are certainly aware of all of the CARB and utility grid storage mandates. All I'm saying is its quite possible they need to do this, it could benefit the company in the long run.

 

[DaveT]

It makes sense to start establishing the network now ahead of those offerings. Wouldn't it have been great if the Supercharger network was rolled out ahead of Model S? There was a chicken and egg problem there, not so much with Model X and Gen III.

Thats a good point. The focus of Tesla is mass market with Gen III. If battery swap can increase the appeal of Tesla cars then it could help expand Gen III's reach. Before Gen III's release the Supercharger network will be fully deployed which will be a huge boost to sales. And if battery swap is successful it could be also fully deployed before Gen III's release, increasing its appeal even more.

 

[brianman]

So his understanding of someone else's willingness to pay $100 bucks for a battery swap is probably a bit out of touch with reality.

Source? Oh right, we're just making up numbers still.

Tesla has a history of doing things that are unexpected:

All industry experts saw Tesla policy of "Service is not intended to make money" coming.

Everybody knows that supercharging will have a per use fee.

 

[Palpatine]

If the $12k battery replacement fee is in fact the cost to use the swap network, that means that only some 2,100 owners need to take this option to offset the capital expense for the stations. Conveniently, that is 1 in 10 owners from 2013 alone. If production looks more like 30k units in 2014 and 2015, that's closer to 1 in 40 takers needed.

Uh... that $12,000 is the replacement cost of a battery. If you are going to snag that money and spend it instead on real estate, buildings, contractors, or CAPEX, then what do they do when it comes times to actually provide that battery to the car owner?
The financial math you keep using is a fantasy. Batteries do actually cost something over and above the CAPEX of building a battery swap network.

 

[Citizen-T]

Uh... that $12,000 is the replacement cost of a battery. If you are going to snag that money and spend it instead on real estate, buildings, contractors, or CAPEX, then what do they do when it comes times to actually provide that battery to the car owner?
The financial math you keep using is a fantasy. Batteries do actually cost something over and above the CAPEX of building a battery swap network.

I did note that that was just for CAPEX and I was trying to show just how few people you would need to get the initial CAPEX out of the way. Obviously you would need more than that to break even on operating the thing.

And we've been through this before, but you love to gloss over it. $12k is far far far too much for a battery 8 years from now. See the thread on cost of batteries that I keep pointing you to and you keep ignoring.

 

[Palpatine]

Everybody knows that supercharging will have a per use fee.

Supercharging does have a fee. It is $2,000 for the life of the car. Or it is included in the cost of the 85 kwh battery pack.
Either way, Tesla is roughly charging everyone $2,000 for access to the Supercharger network or $2,500 if enabled later.

So knowing that you have already paid for one solution, how many people would pay more for a second solution of access to a battery swap also?
Most of us know that after driving an EV for a few weeks, you quickly realize how rarely you utilize either option. It will be interesting if Tesla really gives owners the option to opt out 100% of battery swap subsidies for the low information consumer.

Let's just go with the 60 kwh car where the Supercharger is a real stand alone option. Hopefully the Battery Swap network is also a stand alone option so customers can make a real choice on preference.
I wonder how many people that purchase a 60 kwh battery pack will choose Supercharger vs Battery Swap, assuming they are each has different prices and that an owner can pick one or both or neither.

 

[brianman]

Everybody knows that supercharging will have a per use fee.

Supercharging does have a fee.

Please read more carefully. You are arguing against something different than what I said in my faux quote, because apparently you missed two very important words.

A similar example:

There's no per-use fee for my TiVo lifetime subscription.

You paid an upfront fee for that lifetime subscription.

Both quotes are true.

 

[moollar]

It looks to me like this thread has degenerated into arguments over stuff WE DON'T HAVE ANSWERS TO until after Thursday. I vote that it dies until we have some more answers from Tesla.

 

[Palpatine]

It looks to me like this thread has degenerated into arguments over stuff WE DON'T HAVE ANSWERS TO until after Thursday. I vote that it dies until we have some more answers from Tesla.

Feel free to stop reading. If we want to debate this, we will debate it. You can move along. Nothing to see here.

 

[InsanityWolf]

That is a good point. When the Model X or Gen III come out, the battery technology will likely be further optimized to the point that a 240 kw (or higher) Supercharger is the standard. The refresh of the Model S in a few years would likely also be updated with that battery technology.

So then who is the market for this white elephant network of battery swap stations? Only the people who bought the Model S during the 2012-2014 time frame? 45,000 users of which only 1 in 1,000 on a daily basis travel over 200 miles? So 45 battery swaps per day for the ENTIRE network of stations?

Thank you, exactly! And its not just about the cost Citizen-T/ brianman, swap-stations will only work if people are willing to exchange their battery for one that has been in the swap network. I just can't picture paying 75k on a car, taking great care of it, then giving my battery to someone else who uses it on a track in exchange for his worn out one. It promotes moral hazard in regards to caring for the batteries longevity.

 

[brianman]

Thank you, exactly! And its not just about the cost Citizen-T/ brianman, swap-stations will only work if people are willing to exchange their battery for one that has been in the swap network. I just can't picture paying 75k on a car, taking great care of it, then giving my battery to someone else who uses it on a track in exchange for his worn out one. It promotes moral hazard in regards to caring for the batteries longevity.

Not sure where you got the impression I gave an formed opinion about super-swapping, or how cost came into the equation.

The point in my recent faux quotes was that "per use" is a deterrent for some of us for a great many things. Often it makes no financial sense...

• Would you prefer to pay $10/month or $4800 once?
• $4800.
• But that's like 40 years worth.
• So?

 

[Citizen-T]

Thank you, exactly! And its not just about the cost Citizen-T/ brianman, swap-stations will only work if people are willing to exchange their battery for one that has been in the swap network. I just can't picture paying 75k on a car, taking great care of it, then giving my battery to someone else who uses it on a track in exchange for his worn out one. It promotes moral hazard in regards to caring for the batteries longevity.

I think it is exactly the opposite.

Assume that Tesla pulls packs from circulation after they have degraded to a certain point. This is just obvious to me, they'll need to maintain some minimum level of quality in the network's packs, otherwise they won't know for sure that you can make it to the next station. If you run with that assumption you realize that those that participate in the battery swap program put a floor under how bad their battery can get. No matter how much you baby your battery, you cannot put a floor under how bad it gets. Age will eat away at it no matter what you do.

Look at two individuals. One does not swap and babies their battery in every way they can, trying to squeeze as much performance out of it for as long as possible (probably a TMC member). The other participates in swapping and doesn't know anything at all about batteries and doesn't care (like almost everyone not on TMC). During the first year of ownership, the guy babying his battery is probably doing better. The swapper probably traded his pack for one that was a bit older and maybe even used a bit harder.

As we follow these two through the years we'll find that eventually the tables turn. See, worst case, our swapper has a pack that is as bad as the worst pack in the swapping network. Remember, Tesla is keeping that inventory relatively fresh, so that's not all that bad for a 5, 8, or 10 year old car. But, what about the guy that still has his original battery? Well, he's got a 5, 8, or 10 year old battery.

The point is that at some point. Maybe it is 2 years, maybe it is at 85% capacity, the guy that is taking painstaking care of his pack can assume that any other Joe driving around with a swapped pack, no matter how badly he abuses it, has a better battery than he has. Oh, and he doesn't need to take as long to recharge on long trips either.

Now, the real question is how much does it cost to not have to worry about your battery and to get the super-fast recharge? And, does the value proposition justify that cost? It won't for everyone. Probably not for a lot of people here on these forums. But, for the 99.9% of future customers that don't want to have to worry about how to properly care for their battery? It might be worth it to them.