Please don't do (better place method) battery swap stations, it's a stupid idea

[stopcrazypp]

LBut you guys do realize the current super-chargers charge at a rate of 200 miles for a 20 minute charge. This is down from a previous time of around 35 to 40 minutes.

Whats to say in 4 years, that time won't be cut down to 10 to 15 minutes, as battery or supercharger technology gets better? Then possibly cut down to 5 to 10 minutes in another 4 years?

Too much hand waving of the supercharging numbers. In 20 minutes, 120kW gives 40kWh of charge assuming 100% charge efficiency and no tapering. 40kWh is 160 ideal miles for the 60kWh Model S. The real numbers are that we went from 150 ideal miles in 30 minutes to 200 ideal miles in 30 minutes:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...arging-speed-beyond-the-simple-power-increase

Again, the practical limit of cable based charging is around the 240 kW mark (200 miles ideal range in 15 minutes) and connectors will need an upgrade to reach that point (and superchargers too). Beyond that you will need an automated connector (see battery electric buses) that will cost a lot more.

In contrast, the battery swap tech at this point, assuming the 6 minute time guessed before already has 850kW speed (85kWh in 6 minutes). And this scales with the battery tech (equipment doesn't have to be changed, only batteries).

As I said before, it's unlikely Tesla will be pushing 240kW charging before Gen III (given the roll out schedule).

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Thank you, exactly! And its not just about the cost Citizen-T/ brianman, swap-stations will only work if people are willing to exchange their battery for one that has been in the swap network. I just can't picture paying 75k on a car, taking great care of it, then giving my battery to someone else who uses it on a track in exchange for his worn out one. It promotes moral hazard in regards to caring for the batteries longevity.

This concern would be handled by the rental scheme suggested in the other thread (and also by Elon before).

 

[moollar]

Feel free to stop reading. If we want to debate this, we will debate it. You can move along. Nothing to see here.

Okaaaay. I'll drop back in on Thursday (it'll actually be Friday for me) when we have some more concrete info that can actually be debated. Go on ahead and have a debate without substance if you like, I can't stop you.

(Looks like you've missed my point.....oh well)

 

[Martini]

Please don't start ANOTHER battery swap thread criticizing an idea you haven't even heard yet.

Remember all those people that said Tesla was dead on arrival, that EVs would never sell, that what Tesla was doing was impossible? You remind me of them.

This. Todd sums it up perfectly, but I have to add that even if current EV owners don't want or need more range (really?), there is a larger group of people called "car owners" for whom this is a big issue. Tesla will have to reach those people eventually.

Swapping explains why Tesla was so insistent about a generous battery warranty. No matter what, battery care should not be a concern for the owner.

 

[Palpatine]

This. Todd sums it up perfectly, but I have to add that even if current EV owners don't want or need more range (really?),

really? You don't understand the negatives? English as a second language? this isn't free. It costs a bunch of money. Money that would be a lot more useful if the same amount of money was spent making a wider supercharger network which has long term potential. Just imagine if that $100 million was spent instead on 400 additional supercharger locations above and beyond the current map. That adds real value to customers. Battery swaps are a gimmick.

 

[WarpedOne]

Tesla could use those 100M to lower the price of one year production for $5.000 per car. See how much swapping costs?
Tesla could use those 100M to build additional 500 Superchargers across the world that wont happen because of 200 BS stations in USA. This is a shot in their own foot.
And there still is no Chademo adapter even though it would help Model S owners magnitudes more than BS stations could ever help them.

 

[NigelM]

I'd just like to reiterate that a lot of this thread is arguing ("debating" is not necessarily the right word) about stuff that hasn't been announced yet. If beating others into submission for no good reason is really motivating then I found an interesting forum for you...

 

[djplong]

What if the swapping stations DO solve a problem?

The problem that people in APARTMENTS have. The people that don't own their houses and have to park on the street and have NO place for an overnight recharge while sleeping!

This could be more about expanding the prospective customer base than anything else.

 

[WarpedOne]

People who live in apartments cannot afford to pay the swapping price.

 

[Palpatine]

What if the swapping stations DO solve a problem?

The problem that people in APARTMENTS have. The people that don't own their houses and have to park on the street and have NO place for an overnight recharge while sleeping!

This could be more about expanding the prospective customer base than anything else.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Battery Swaps be a possible solution as the ONLY recharge method for someone. If you don't have a recharge option at home, EVs just don't make sense for you.

For someone to rely upon battery swaps 100% would require that swap stations be as common as gas stations. If you have to drive 20 miles out of your path to get a battery swap, you have already defeated the purpose. It seems obvious from Elon's comments that he is not aiming this at apartment dwellers. In the Reuters interview he described this as something between cities in the same locations as Superchargers.

If you live in an apartment and want an EV, you need to have some common sense about this and get an outlet. Plenty of people have convinced their buildings to install an outlet or charging station.

 

[TD1]

What if the swapping stations DO solve a problem?

The problem that people in APARTMENTS have. The people that don't own their houses and have to park on the street and have NO place for an overnight recharge while sleeping!

This could be more about expanding the prospective customer base than anything else.

Especially in European cities its quite rare to have an own garage, so If Tesla can show a PopUp-Superswapper that could close that marketgap, and be a good solution for the time periode (next 10-15) years where the public charging infrastructure is weak.

Also a Popup Solution (as big as a Ship Container but only as long as a Parkingspace, where a Sidedoor folds and is used as a ramp) would be:
- Cost effective to build
- Easy to install, Unload it, no Construction work
- Easy to deinstall (areas where the the swapping declines due to a very good public charging infrastructure)
- Only occupies 2 parking spaces.

Due to the fact that this solution is so easy portable these stations could be used very strategically and change the location over time.

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People who live in apartments cannot afford to pay the swapping price.

there is this thing, they call it a "city"

Especially looking at the GenIII

 

[efusco]

Do you think the battery swapping might be targeted more toward fleet vehicles and taxis? Perhaps not initially, but once the Gen III comes forward there may be many municipalities considering this sort of vehicle for fleets and taxis as the look at lifetime cost of ownership, and the availability of rapid recharging/battery swapping for taxis would be ideal.

 

[NigelM]

People who live in apartments cannot afford to pay the swapping price.

That's a little provocative statement and more than a little unrealistic. I know plenty of apartment dwellers who can afford plenty; besides which nobody knows what the swapping price is, if indeed there is any at all.

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If you don't have a recharge option at home, EVs just don't make sense for you.
<snip>
If you live in an apartment and want an EV, you need to have some common sense about this and get an outlet.

Maybe we could lay off the provocation for a while?

 

[DavidM]

I'll reserve final judgement for after the demonstration. But my initial thoughts are:
1. Battery swap is a whole different business model. It could potentially work in situations where you purchase the car and lease the battery. Allowing the owner of a $40K EV to purchase it for $20K and lease the battery forever.
2. It seems horribly labor and capital intensive to build the infrastructure. How much would someone be willing to pay for a swap?
3. I suspect a swapping infrastructure would become obsolete before it's finished.
4. If Model S owners drive less than 200 miles/day 98% of the time, then the entire battery swapping argument only addresses 2% of an EV owner's travels. Pretty big investment for 2%. Particularly when superchargers are an option.

Hmmm . .

 

[Palpatine]

That's a little provocative statement and more than a little unrealistic. I know plenty of apartment dwellers who can afford plenty; besides which nobody knows what the swapping price is, if indeed there is any at all.

I have noticed that POV often among the EV community. It seems very similar to the early days of the internet when everyone thought that it should all be free. No advertising, no money, etc.

There seems to be this utopian attitude that everything related to EVs be free. And at the end of the day, that just won't be possible. We have to recognize that stuff costs money. All of those batteries are not free. The real estate is not free. The buildings are not free. The electricity is not free. The employees are not working for free. One way or another, if we want Tesla Motors to survive and thrive in the future, then the EV community will have to recognize that stuff costs money.

Telsa Motors (TSLA) is a public company. They cannot provide a free unicorn to every owner.

 

[NigelM]

I have noticed that POV often among the EV community. It seems very similar to the early days of the internet when everyone thought that it should all be free. No advertising, no money, etc..

I wasn't advocating or arguing for anything to be free, just pointing out that statements about unaffordability are irrelevant until we know what Tesla aims to charge, or not. Seeing as battery swaps are to be made without the driver exiting the car, perhaps they could put up a big screen and force us to watch ads while the swap takes place and the ad income could subsidize the facility costs.

 

[Electric700]

I'm with others here who would like to first see the Supercharger network expanded across the US, and a Gen III+ car developed. Perhaps the research into the demand/capital investment for battery swapping can be made afterward?

 

[bollar]

I'll reserve final judgement for after the demonstration. But my initial thoughts are:
4. If Model S owners drive less than 200 miles/day 98% of the time, then the entire battery swapping argument only addresses 2% of an EV owner's travels. Pretty big investment for 2%. Particularly when superchargers are an option.

To me, this is the question -- how important is that 2% and is that travel ("the" family vacation, perhaps?) important enough that people will choose an ICE for the family car over a Tesla if they have to wait 20-40 minutes at each stop?

These are questions that most people will have to answer. Those people for whom flying to the destination, or renting an ICE occasionally isn't an option.

 

[Palpatine]

Maybe we could lay off the provocation for a while?

There was no procation in the comments you quoted. That person seems to think that owning an EV is possible without having an outlet.
Seriously? You think me pointing out how that doesn't make sense is "provocation"? Nigel, you are not the thought police, get over yourself.

 

[Norbert]

To me, this is the question -- how important is that 2% and is that travel ("the" family vacation, perhaps?) important enough that people will choose an ICE for the family car over a Tesla if they have to wait 20-40 minutes at each stop?

These are questions that most people will have to answer. Those people for whom flying to the destination, or renting an ICE occasionally isn't an option.

Given that many of those who aren't already convinced of EVs mention the charging time as a show-stopper-like argument (and seem to be honest about it), there is certainly some level of subjective importance, even if some of it can be overcome through actual experience.

It appears that battery swap stations make sense at least for fleets and taxi-like services (perhaps car-sharing in a city with the Gen III). The question is whether they make sense for long trips. If it is possible to cover the costs with a fee (where there is sufficient traffic), then this choice can be left to actual customer demand.

If a swap station could have a max throughput of 1 car/minute, it would have a throughput of maybe 30 Supercharger outlets. So it might be cost-effective at not-so-high rates. An additional advantage is that it can be placed further than walking distance from restaurants. The disadvantage would be that it may be cost-effective only in places with high (Tesla-) traffic. However, a cost-covering fee would allow it to be placed in cities, without fear of abuse by locals, as that would be "good" use then. The time-saving would be an additional attraction, valuable for business areas to attract customers (without the ugliness of a gas station).

 

[Palpatine]

I wasn't advocating or arguing for anything to be free, just pointing out that statements about unaffordability are irrelevant until we know what Tesla aims to charge, or not. Seeing as battery swaps are to be made without the driver exiting the car, perhaps they could put up a big screen and force us to watch ads while the swap takes place and the ad income could subsidize the facility costs.

You displayed a disconnect with the financial reality, which is common in the EV community, by posting that battery swaps might be free.
Watching ads while getting a battery swap is going to cover this? And you can likely get an Elon designed unicorn also with your Model X. Keep dreaming.