Please don't do (better place method) battery swap stations, it's a stupid idea

[deonb]

You displayed a disconnect with the financial reality, which is common in the EV community, by posting that battery swaps might be free.
Watching ads while getting a battery swap is going to cover this? And you can likely get an Elon designed unicorn also with your Model X. Keep dreaming.

Does having the service bring in 10'000 new orders? If so, it's paid for, even if it's free.

There are many ways to skin a cat.

I don't think it will be free personally, but it doesn't mean that a capital crime needs to be committed against "financial reality" in order for it to be free.

 

[rabar10]

Here is how I think it will work... Tesla seems to like to us common parts for several applications. For example the supercharger uses 12 or the same charging modules found in the Model S charger. We already know from the last Shareholder meeting that at least 2 Supercharger sites have a Energy Storage system. What if tesla used 6 - 12 85kWh batteries for the Energy Storage System giving the supercharger .5 to 1 MWh of capacity. Those same batteries could be used to swap... Always keep the top battery charged for the next swap.
...
During the week the solar panels will feed the ESS... During peak usage times on the grid Tesla would back feed power to the Utility earning Tesla $$$$. During night Tesla would slowly recharge the batteries to a certain level at very low cost. On the weekend the ESS will supplement Supercharging to significantly reduce demand charges saving Tesla a lot of $$$$. I think ESS/Solar/swap will not be at every supercharge station but on core routes...

Pulling this all the way from page 1 -- thanks Chris for the thoughts! (I corrected the units here from the original post btw)

I appreciate the modular approach, similar to the Supercharger building blocks. The one part that wouldn't work out great is that the use of both Supercharging and swapping will be highly condensed on the weekends (specifically Fridays and Sundays, per Tesla's own admission). For the cars that choose to swap, those batteries could have been charged either from solar or at least from off-peak grid power, so the energy charges for those will be minimized. But "live" grid power would still most likely be needed for cars that are Supercharging -- since at least a few of the "ESS" packs would need to be full so that they are ready for swapping during these high-demand periods.

Still, it makes for a compelling plan. Tesla has a core competency in manufacturing battery packs with high capacity and energy/power density, so use those packs as energy-storage for the Supercharging stations (smaller physical footprint and better power density than Pb-acid for example) AND add the mechanical bits to enable swapping those packs in/out at the same time.

This would also mean that a temporarily-swapped pack would get some additional cycles of use while at that site (i.e. not just 80% recharged and placed on a shelf waiting the owner's return, for example).

 

[Palpatine]

Does having the service bring in 10'000 new orders? If so, it's paid for, even if it's free.

Great, then we all just subsidized the entire swap network in the form of higher prices by $5,000 per car for something that the typical Tesla owner will never use.
It sounds like a tax now.

Tesla (TSLA) is public company. They have to show a profit eventually. They need to figure out how to keep the costs affordable, not lard up the ecosystem with unsustainable or obsolete legacy assets.

 

[bonnie]

You displayed a disconnect with the financial reality, which is common in the EV community, by posting that battery swaps might be free.
Watching ads while getting a battery swap is going to cover this? And you can likely get an Elon designed unicorn also with your Model X. Keep dreaming.

This kind of response is really not necessary. Since most people here own Roadsters and/or Model S, likely most are not disconnected from financial reality. And to then continue by using a sweeping generalization such as '...disconnect with the financial reality, which is common in the EV community', one might be tempted to say you're trolling, hoping to start an argument. Instead of arguing with you, I'll just point out that you're being a bit overly-dramatic.

Disagreements are fine. Making it personal is not.

 

[Dan5]

The swapping idea is actually a good idea, but you have to impel customers to actually use it. It's difficult to have the vast majority of people pay for a service that they barely use.

I think they should handle it has a benefit and chalk it up to marketing. As a consumer, it makes you happy and we all know word of mouth is the best form of advertising.

For example, a TV commercial does nothing for you if you already bought the car, and how many people actually buy a car based on a commercial, BUT if you spend 20-50 million on swap stations, set up the infrastructure and offer it as a free service to your customers, it will bring in more customers and snowball, even though the stations rarely get used.

If also offers differentiation, and that's really what the automobile business is all about

 

[Palpatine]

Bonnie, after reading some of the schemes proposed on TMC to finance battery swaps, the only conclusion possible is that there is a total disconnect from financial reality. Just my opinion, as always, you are welcome to it.

 

[NigelM]

You displayed a disconnect with the financial reality, which is common in the EV community, by posting that battery swaps might be free.
Watching ads while getting a battery swap is going to cover this? And you can likely get an Elon designed unicorn also with your Model X. Keep dreaming.

As far as I can understand the only point that you're trying to make is that I'm stupid. Well maybe I am, but I'm not going to engage.

 

[deonb]

Great, then we all just subsidized the entire swap network in the form of higher prices by $5,000 per car for something that the typical Tesla owner will never use.
It sounds like a tax now.

Tesla (TSLA) is public company. They have to show a profit eventually. They need to figure out how to keep the costs affordable, not lard up the ecosystem with unsustainable or obsolete legacy assets.

So can you unequivocally say with absolute certainty that there are zero people on the planet that are on the fence about EV's, not really sure how they feel about a 20 minute to hour recharge, but can be persuaded to purchase once they have a 2 minute battery swap option available?

 

[bonnie]

Bonnie, after reading some of the schemes proposed on TMC to finance battery swaps, the only conclusion possible is that there is a total disconnect from financial reality. Just my opinion, as always, you are welcome to it.

I just put you on my 'never invite to a brain-storming session' list.

While I recognize your need to correct others, it isn't misinformation, it is supposition as to how it might be accomplished. Had you seen posts before Superchargers were announced to be free, you might have said anyone was nuts to think that the service would be no cost. Tesla has proven over and over that they do things differently ... which is why people tend to look through a different lens than 'how it's always done'.

 

[Palpatine]

Had you seen posts before Superchargers were announced to be free, you might have said anyone was nuts to think that the service would be no cost.

Superchargers are not free. They cost $2,000 per car owner or $2,500 if you activate later. For 85 kwh car owners, it is just buried in the $10,000 upgrade cost for the extra 25 kwh of battery capacity.

So there is definitely going to be a cost associated with battery swaps. It is just a question of whether they make it an option you can buy or if they tax all owners by raising the price for everyone.

 

[TD1]

You displayed a disconnect with the financial reality, which is common in the EV community, by posting that battery swaps might be free.
Watching ads while getting a battery swap is going to cover this? And you can likely get an Elon designed unicorn also with your Model X. Keep dreaming.

Palpatine, I think you are the one here that has a disconnection from reality.
"There is no such thing as a free lunch" (yea google it)
Batteryswaping could be "free" in the same manner as Supercharging is "free"
In the Tesla world "free" means that you paid all the costs upfront and get the service for "free" so you can swap/supercharge as much as you want.
That eliminates complicated billing procedures etc.

 

[TokyoRush]

TANSTAAFL (actual quote is "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch" - from The Moon is a Harsh Mistress) to you too. Not sure why this is a concern one way or another to those of us who are investors or owners (I'm both). At the end of the day, if the incremental costs are too high (not sure why they would be), then it won't come to fruition. If the costs are not high, then it could be a great opportunity to provide a value added service at service centers or SC stations, perhaps.

Palpatine - when you get old, your most loyal servant will turn on you and kill you. In the meantime - why are you speculating that this will be such a disaster (#'s please and with sources)?

Personally, if I'm heading cross country, I don't mind waiting the 30 minutes every 3 hours for a charge at an SC. Can't see much of a use foe swapping. But more options are good if they don't mess with the overall financial model.

 

[Doug_G]

Speaking as section moderator, could we please keep things civil? Some of the posts here are bordering on being banished to the "snippiness" thread. Personal attacks are not tolerated here.

Thanks.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Superchargers are not free. They cost $2,000 per car owner or $2,500 if you activate later. For 85 kwh car owners, it is just buried in the $10,000 upgrade cost for the extra 25 kwh of battery capacity.

So there is definitely going to be a cost associated with battery swaps. It is just a question of whether they make it an option you can buy or if they tax all owners by raising the price for everyone.

You don't know that this wasn't part of the plan from the beginning, and thus already accounted for in the hidden/explicit cost burden (hidden for 85kwh, $2000 for $60kwh) Tesla is using for supercharging.

 

[Palpatine]

You don't know that this wasn't part of the plan from the beginning, and thus already accounted for in the hidden/explicit cost burden (hidden for 85kwh, $2000 for $60kwh) Tesla is using for supercharging.

We will see. Looking at their 10Q SEC filings makes that seem unlikely. Read a few of them.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/sec?s=TSLA+SEC+Filings

 

[jerry33]

So more than $30 per swap and you would stick with a free Supercharger?

Given that I'm going to stop about every 150 to 200 miles for 15 minutes minimum (even with a 600 mile range Prius) the extra 15-20 minutes for a Supercharge isn't even remotely inconvenient. The only reasons to swap batteries is if yours is looking like it's about EOL and chances are good that you'll get a better one during the swap or if there is a ten car lineup at the Supercharger.

 

[Norbert]

Along the high traffic route I-5, at least once Gen III production starts, between SF and LA, a battery swap station might even be more cost effective than the corresponding number of additional SuperCharger stations. I don't think the real question is cost, but how many will prefer (or at least be OK with) battery swapping, such that it will get used sufficiently and reduce the load on the SuperCharger stations.

Especially for the Gen III, I could imagine that many (*optionally*) would prefer to buy the car without battery, and instead pay a monthly fee for battery sharing (without even the financial commitment of a lease). Of course this monthly fee needs to be lower than the average gasoline expense of an ICE. This would lower the initial threshold of ownership substantially, and make it even easier to compare the true cost of an EV.

For those buying a car including a battery, it may depend on whether it is possible to have your "own" battery returned after a trip. If not, many might want to keep their fresh new battery with its maximum range, but perhaps be willing to enter sharing once the battery is more average quality. They would get a credit based on the capacity of the battery. Or, once shared batteries with a higher capacity than 85 kWh become available. The monthly fee might be influenced by the capacity of the battery you receive/choose.

 

[aronth5]

My two cents

 

[VolkerP]

+1

Back to the thread title: IMO TM is not going Better Place. Battery swapping was an essential part of the BP business model. It is not and probably will never be for TM. In the Reuters interview, Elon mentioned to start with a few demonstration swap stations between LA/SF and on the east coast.

I see it as a move along TM's mission to "demolish every obstacle that stands in the way of the electric car" (Consumer Reports), thus opening the idea of personal electric transportation to the broader masses.

My predictions:

• Tesla will monitor closely the demand / usage for battery swapping in the Model S fleet. The big advantage here is, the owners know what an EV already can do without swapping.
• If swapping is a big hit, Tesla will expand the swap station network to full country coverage when Gen III hits the market. "copy us or join us" for the other manufacturers applies here, too.
• If not, Tesla will lobby to remove the "quick swap" request from the ZEV credit and save development costs in future models.

 

[jeff_adams]

I was not a swap advocate, but after Elon's tweet of a 45 second swap, I think I see where he's going with this.

Two analogies.

In California we have some busy freeways with "fast track" lanes that allow drivers to buy a pass to bypass rush hour traffic. There are those that will sit in traffic and those willing to pay to avoid it. For a segment of the population, time is money.

Second one.

When I would need to buy a gallon of milk and a box of cereal, I'd go to the corner market instead of a closer grocery store. Why? It costs more money at the corner market. I did it because I wanted to avoid standing in line behind 3 people with full shopping carts. The groceries figured this out and added "express lanes" for those of us with fewer items. Options. They did one better, they added "self checkout". Now I have 3 options and can chose the one that works best for my situation.

Imagine a few years from now. Tesla has licensed the charger and swap technology. Several different cars are able to use them (plus Xs, MS and Genlll). You pull up to a site and need to charge your pack. All 12 supercharger bays have cars in them. You see 4 more cars parked nearby, obviously waiting their turn. While you are sitting there trying to decide if you should wait around for an open bay or eat first, you notice 3-4 cars roll up on the swapper and get a fully charged up battery. You are contemplating a situation that could easily take over an hour to be charged up with the supercharger. Those cars are headed to the freeway on ramp in minutes. Hmmmm........