TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Please help me understand the Delivery Estimate webpage

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by azred, Aug 18, 2017.

  1. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    684
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    I realize the configurator availability will be the answer to many pricing/ delivery questions, but I wonder if anyone can help me understand the Delivery Estimate webpage. For example, on the delivery estimate page it is a mystery to me when I can buy a $44,000 (base interior) LR version. Will I be able to get the car in the initial three month time block, the second three month time block, the third time block....or other? I'm willing to cough up the $9,000 but $44,000 is the highest my budget will absorb and it seems I should be able to start planning for that purchase by now. If I can get it in my first three month timeframe (Oct-Dec 2017), I need to juggle some finances around pretty soon to ensure the $7500 credit can be used, but at this point I have no idea if the $44,000 version will be built this year.
     
  2. deonb

    deonb Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2013
    Messages:
    3,437
    Location:
    Redmond, WA
    Second three month time block.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    5,320
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Here's a decision tree:

    [​IMG]
     
    • Like x 5
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
  4. Troy

    Troy Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    1,062
    Location:
    Hi. The Model 3 comes in 5 versions:
    • Model 3 80: $44,000 (Confirmed) aka Model 3 Long Range, RWD << The first date range is for this
    • Model 3 55: $35,000 (Confirmed) aka Model 3 Standard Range, RWD << The second date range is for this
    • Model 3 55D: $39,000 (Estimate) aka Model 3 Standard Range, AWD << The third date range is for these three
    • Model 3 80D: $48,000 (Estimate) aka Model 3 Long Range, AWD << The third date range is for these three
    • Model 3 P80D: $74,000 (Estimate) aka Model 3 Performance << The third date range is for these three
    In addition, each of the 5 versions above can have the following optional upgrades:
    • $1,000 Paint color other than black
    • $5,000 Premium upgrades package
    • $1,500 19" wheels
    • $5,000 Enhanced Autopilot
    • $3,000 Fully self-driving (Requires Enhanced Autopilot)
    For federal tax credits, the most likely scenario is the following. More details here.

    Optimistic Scenario (65% likely)
    • $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
    • $3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
    • $1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  5. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    1,428
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    But they are asking about long range without premium package.
     
  6. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    5,320
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    You have to follow the tree. The answer to the first question is no, the answer to the second question is no... therefore, second block.
     
    • Like x 3
  7. EXOTIC1

    EXOTIC1 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2014
    Messages:
    329
    Location:
    MANY PLACES
    90-95K (loaded) for this car with ludicrous mode is well just ludicrous:eek:
    I'd rather have a P85+ for 55k but the car is for the wife so she can decide for herself.
    i love my MS !
     
  8. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    1,428
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    You are most likely correct, but who knows what will really happen.
     
  9. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    684
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    Looks like Jeff believes my $44,000 build is in second block, while Troy thinks it will be in the first block. You probably won't be shocked to hear I just spoke to a sales rep in Colorado -- since our AZ showrooms aren't open yet this morning -- and he said it would be the third block, "as explained to their staff." So can we agree that the Delivery Estimate page is a huge fail:)? Or at least a small fail?
     
    • Like x 1
  10. 206er

    206er Member

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2017
    Messages:
    246
    Location:
    Seattle, WA USA
    I'm sure hoping that it ends up being a good fail and that Elon breaks from tradition by under promising and over delivering. I reeeeeally want my base Model 3 in 2017 to secure the tax credit in early 2018 versus taking delivering sometime in Jan-March 2018 and having to wait until 2019 to receive the credit (and hope that the unlikely tax reform Paul Ryan has teased doesn't somehow kill the tax credit in 2018).
     
  11. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    5,320
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Troy probably just made a typo. All vehicles in the first block have premium upgrades according to Tesla and the delivery estimator.

    From the FAQ:
    To me, this means on the second block you can get any combination of the features previously offered except AWD/P.

    Keep in mind, sales staff are still trying to push the S/X
     
    • Like x 2
  12. codex57

    codex57 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2017
    Messages:
    278
    Location:
    NorCal
    I understand it just as JeffK explained it.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  13. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2012
    Messages:
    2,893
    Location:
    Santa Cruz, CA
    Although they indicate that they might be shipping the base interior slightly before the short range battery. Probably won't much difference to anybody except maybe employees, though:

    Fall 2017: standard configuration (non-Premium Upgrades)
    November 2017: Standard Battery, $35,000 car

    If they were going to be at the same time, you would presume they would have combined them in the timeline, but they indicate non-PUP as "Fall" and SR as November.
     
    • Informative x 1
  14. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    5,320
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Luckily November is considered Fall so all the stars are still aligned :) ...at least in the North, where we know Winter is coming...

    I think all the estimated dates are just placeholders and if they can ramp up sooner, they will. Heck, I'm still optimistic about a performance model before the end of June even though the estimator says there's not a snowball's chance.
     
  15. azred

    azred Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2016
    Messages:
    684
    Location:
    Chandler, AZ
    Just talked to someone at the head shed in Fremont and after she consulted with a higher up, she said I should select the first time block on the Delivery Estimator (for my intended LR, standard interior). BUT at this point, she said it is unknown if the configurator -- which I will get early on as a current customer and near-West Coast resident -- will allow me to even order my configuration initially. In other words, I think the answer to my question is no knows the answer today. What I did learn today is that the Delivery Estimator probably isn't providing very accurate estimates for Tesla's production planning, but I suspected that all along.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  16. internalaudit

    internalaudit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    442
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario, Canada
    Surprised no one rated JeffK's post as Funny. I was scrolling up and down just in case something magically was to appear.

    I clicked on AWD since all three configuration were for late 2018. Now I don't have that option to change to the other two configs anymore and I'm stuck with an AWD model. :)
     
  17. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    5,320
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Not everyone is a game of thrones fan and in addition, there are still people that don't realize the southern hemisphere has summer when we have winter.

    A dragon dies this Sunday if you haven't seen it already.
     
    • Disagree x 3
    • Like x 1
  18. internalaudit

    internalaudit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2016
    Messages:
    442
    Location:
    Toronto, Ontario, Canada
    Oh yeah, they're at the tail-end of winter but don't they get their Tesla's in early 2019, at the earliest?

    I have not since an episode and have no intention of doing so. My own life is my fantasy. :)
     
  19. Troy

    Troy Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    1,062
    Location:
    #19 Troy, Aug 18, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2017
    My version is not a typo. I still think it's correct because "non-Premium Upgrades" is listed in Stage 2, before the Standard battery option. This is from the FAQ page. I added the labels in brackets.

    [Stage 1] [LR+PUP]
    [Stage 2] Fall 2017: White interior option, standard configuration (non-Premium Upgrades)
    [Stage 3] November 2017: Standard Battery, $35,000 car
    [Stage 4] Spring 2018: Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive

    Hi, @JeffK. In the FAQ, the section "Additional configurations ..." matches Stage 3. November 2017 is a match and $35,000 is another match. Therefore the two orange boxes below refer to the same thing. However, before Stage 3, there is Stage 2 which includes "(non-Premium Upgrades)".


    [​IMG]
    Screenshot source: FAQ's page


    @gocken2,
    Not sure why you decided to downvote my message but I have added you to my ignore list like I always do. That means, I won't see your messages.
     
    • Like x 1
  20. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    5,320
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    #20 JeffK, Aug 18, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2017
    Yes, November is in the Fall and there are only three stages listed in the delivery estimator. You've created an artificial one based on the FAQ.

    First stage according to both the estimator, the FAQ, and your own post state LR with premium.

    Besides all that, the delivery estimator does not line up with the FAQ at all for some people so it's pretty useless. For example: My first production window doesn't even start until Jan 2018

    [​IMG]

    So technically, if I'm allowed to configure in January, the question is: Can I get the standard battery? If so, the estimator is pointless, if not then the FAQ is pointless.
     

Share This Page