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Poke a hole in my strategy... POLL

Discussion in 'Model S' started by number12, Aug 31, 2016.

  1. number12

    number12 Member

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    Bear with me... mind races when you are waiting for a car.

    Ordered 8/17, confirmed 8/24, scheduled production 9/12, est. delivery 10/15

    Financing not leasing.

    2 concerns. 2.0 hardware and depreciation (because of 2.0 and possibly year end born on vs '17)

    Tesla says there is no change option now, and car is being built regardless of what I do... (seems strange?)

    Thinking is free so classic... what would you do?

    A.) Cancel order and reorder for a Jan '17 delivery... (assuming 2.0 is announced). Lose $2500 deposit.

    B.) Accept car... get $75000 credit (plus not lose $2500 deposit)... trade in for Jan.-Feb '17 delivery. Have not done any research but I am guessing around a $15-20K hair cut... $10K being subsidized by tax credit a deposit retention...no new tax on new car trade in value will be high and only have to pay on tax difference... AND get another fed tax credit on 17 return....

    C.) Accept car and just live... cross whatever bridge when it happens.


    EDIT- Never added thread and accidentally posted. By bad.
     
  2. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    You'll never get the perfect car by waiting. For that matter, no one knows even if 2.0 will be really great, or what. Software v. 8.0, 8.1 is supposed to have a lot of improvements, and AP is already a very useful tool.

    Tesla improves their car many times a week. If you wait for 2.0, will you kick yourself when 2.2 comes out?

    Of course, you're talking to a really old fanboi. First Tesla was VIN 00064, now driving 102847. Both have been awesome.

    But, if you CAN wait, it might save you a few bucks. Or not. Nope, I can't see any reason to wait.
     
    • Like x 2
  3. Boourns

    Boourns Member

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    C, no question. It's going to be the best car you've ever had, even if in 4 months it's not the latest and greatest.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. jzhan

    jzhan Member

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    I would say that despite what a lot of people say about 2.0, it's more of a incremental change.
    The current AP is sufficient for most freeway driving. The new triple cam and the added censor will indeed make the system better but I don't think it will create such a huge difference. I believe 2.0 is mostly aimed at local driving than improving highway/freeway driving. For me, I wouldn't trust AP on local regardless what they claim. It's just way too complicated for cars (at least in LA).
    I would say 2.0 is more of refining the system than revolutionizing the system. The current AP is a high level 2 and AP 2.0 will probably be a low level 3 at best for a long time.
    So... yeah.. I choose C.
     
    • Like x 2
  5. AMPd

    AMPd Active Member

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    C.

    I don't think 2.0 will be as great as some people think.
    Waiting for something that has no firm release date nor exact description of its ability seems pointless to me.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Funny x 1
  6. theslimshadyist

    theslimshadyist NashVegas!

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    If, and that's a big "IF" we knew with 100% certainty that AP 2.0 was coming in 2017 (but we don't) and that feature was high on my list (which it is), I would select option A. If you can wait indefinitely for AP 2.0 to arrive, I would select option A. If I were in the same exact position as you right now I would take option C. HOWEVER, if 2.0 is announced prior to your 10/15 delivery date there's no doubt in my mind that I would take option A as fast as possible! ;)
     
  7. number12

    number12 Member

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    That is why I was so excited about my new option B.

    I figure if people are willing to pay 20K for a 100 vs 90 battery... this strategy isn't bad. and fanboi wise... Tesla gets 2 sales.

    I can do more research to figure out exact hair cut on trade in... but its all about depreciation. Honestly I don't think 2.0 hardware will be that much benefit to me in first several years... again just car about resale value when I want the new new.
     
    • Love x 1
  8. DavidP100DL

    DavidP100DL P100D with P90D underline so it's faster.

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    I feel this pain, because I just lived it when I ordered a P90DL and a few days later a P100DL came out. You have to just go with it. But I am both empathetic and sympathetic. Like all opinions, it's just my own. I wouldn't beat yourself up over something you can't influence or control. I do that as well...

    It's a fantastic car, but it's not pure software. We all have to live on the hardware we have until we can get new hardware.
     
  9. number12

    number12 Member

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    Think 6 years down the road... 1.0 hardware vs 2.0 hardware on resale value... One car can drive itself. One can not.AND on top of that I missed it by 2-3 months...
     
  10. number12

    number12 Member

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    Color me jealous. If i was waiting on a P100DL delivery vs a 60D... I think resale value to me would be relatively less of a factor ;)
     
  11. jzhan

    jzhan Member

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    6 years down the road the resale value of both cars will be low regardless AP 1.0 or 2.0 because there will be a 3.0 or maybe 4.0 by that time.

    Saying that 6 years down the road that 2.0 will be able to drive itself is HIGHLY optimistic. I don't think even the most hyped Tesla fanboy will claim that at the moment. There is a great leap from adding a triple cam and 4 additional sensors to high level 3 autonomous driving. If you don't know, Mercedes S class already has an equivalent if not more robust sensor/cam system than what's proposed for AP 2,0 but they didn't get them anywhere did they? The hardware and software are just not there yet. The auto industry overall thinks that hardware and software will be there around 2020 while Elon being forever optimistic and shooting for the moon predicts 2018, which any sensible person knows is an overly optimistic timeline.
     
  12. brkaus

    brkaus Member

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    IMHO -

    B is silly - why take the risk? The loss is going to be more than A.

    I'd probably go with C at this point.
     
  13. PtG62901

    PtG62901 Member

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    I ordered a week after the OP. When the P100D was announced, with the hint about AP 2.0, I blew my mind for about 12 hours. The issues are spelled out here very well. I'm taking the car when it arrives. Hard to find the perfect moment to buy a rapidly progressing technology. Really excited about the car I ordered.

    Good news is that we are getting an AP announcement today? Better radar, not more sensors? Haven't seen it yet, but very interested.

    I'm at peace with going forward, but we all need to find the right decision for ourselves. It is a lot of money, but the AP 1.0 car is what I was buying, I'm happy with that.
     
  14. Wshowell

    Wshowell Member

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    Probably not too late to change to a 24 month lease and afford yourself some additional options. If it depreciates like a stone then just turn it in as planned and upgrade then to the latest and greatest. If it holds its value better than anticipated then buy it at lease end and sell it or keep it for yourself. If technology is Mind boggling by that time the lease ends then you'll have not such a long wait to experience the new stuff.

    I've never leased but it seems like it might be a decent compromise between the A,B,C choices you were looking into.

    I see this much like a tech gadget. I had an IPad 3 until six months ago but it was the fully loaded retina cellular max GB one at the time. Five years I had that thing and now I have the 12" pro 128 etc etc. I also just gave up my 4 year iPhone 5 for the SE (I prefer a small phone). It didn't bother me much to be using "old tech" for that many years as they were both solid piece of tech and the top of the line at that time. I'll keep these for another 4-5 years and upgrade to the new tech then. I think it's all about what floats your boat when it comes to newest versus newer.
     
  15. number12

    number12 Member

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    Is it impossible to lease a Tesla in Georgia?

    iPad $400 tesla $100k. Decent analogy but buying newest iPad every 6months with "trade in/resale value" is $200/6 months.
     
  16. Wshowell

    Wshowell Member

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    Ah yes. Forgot that about GA. Absolutely true on the IPad/iPhone response. This is why we will buy a CPO. I just can't rationalize buying a new S even with all the great "stuff" when I would be 80% as happy with a fully loaded CPO S60 for 40% of the cost of the max offering. That's my math of course. I do enjoy seeing the P85D people gearing up to dump their "old" ride for the P100DL. The cheapness runs deep in me and we have the means, I just don't have the mindset nor my wife the tolerance. I'm chasing maximum value I suppose is now I can rationalize it. Regardless. Enjoy it and please share pics...
     
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  17. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    I agree with @jzhan.

    I think 2.0 will be SW related and that the true change with more sensors and significantly more autonomy is quite a way's away. Aside from the herculean coding, fail-proofing, etc. effort required, I see the potential legal and regulatory issues to to be monumentally huge. Both those things, and all others related to them, take a lot of time. Often for no discernible reason. But they do. I believe the reason Tesla was able to release AP1.0 so quickly is because it really wasn't on anybody's radar; especially the Feds. It takes governments eons longer than the real world to key into these "newfangled" things. But now that they are, things will slow precipitously.

    I actually prefer the slower route. Just not at gov't speed.

    This tech needs a lot of thinking in so many areas (in no particular order):
    • tech
    • safety
    • driver acceptance
    • consumer acceptance
    • regulation
    • sustainability
    • sabotage by the fossils. All of them.
    • unit cost
    • extensibility
    • control of raw materials. Actual or defacto.
     
  18. RogerHScott

    RogerHScott Active Member

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    The short answer is C: get into the latest actually available Tesla A.S.A.P. and start enjoying it sooner rather than later. Don't get
    caught up in those ooh-it's-really-going-to-be-great-tomorrow-just-gotta-hang-in-there mind games. Tomorrow's always farther
    away than you think.

    The longer answer is: if you know before you even take delivery that you want to sell it, can't you prearrange a sale with someone such that they're effectively getting a brand-new car from you and reduce the size of the haircut?
     
    • Like x 1
  19. Austin Powers

    Austin Powers Member

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    Elon himself has said they are investing in a software solution rather than additional hardware. The split with MobilEye might actually have prompted him to say that, which means hardware option is not coming anytime soon.
     
  20. Blu Zap

    Blu Zap Grinning member

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    You are really gambling on the hardware upgrade. 2.0 means stereo (dual) cameras and more radar. When WILL that happen. It is anyone's guess. Yet the car you are buying now is hot! And you get it now. There will always be the "next". Get it while you can and enjoy what you have. I have a P85+ that I got two weeks before the Ds came out. I love my plus!! No regrets.
     

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