Poke a hole in my strategy... POLL

[NikeWings]

If 2.0 is absolutely core to your expected satisfaction, then:
A financially the most predictable
B financially the most speculative
C financially the cheapest, but probably the most regrettable

But if it is not, then stay the course and within 45 days, you'll be as happy as the rest of us!

 

[Mike K]

Not only do we not know when AP 2.0 is coming out but we don't know what exactly it will entail. Ask yourself what you are really looking for with respect to autonomy. For me, if someone said for an extra $10,000 I can make your AP Model S fully autonomous I wouldn't bite because it's current capabilities perfectly address my desires (monotonous driving in LA traffic).

I think some people get so caught up in the latest and greatest that they never stop to think what that will be or if they even want it. I'm not saying that's you but I think it's a lot of people here.

That said, if you're willing to potentially take a 5 figure bath on a couple month old car for the sake of getting new technology I have to ask you, why are you buying at all? Why not lease? These cars are going to improve and you sound like the kind of guy that's going to want to buy one when they do. You'll take a bath on a purchase.

 

[number12]

Relatively whichever $ "hit" I take sometimes doesn't look so bad...

Musk's bad day: Explosion + stock drops by Tesla, SolarCity = $390 million loss

 

[fallen888]

C.

We're not getting any younger.

 

[PtG62901]

Relatively whichever $ "hit" I take sometimes doesn't look so bad...

Musk's bad day: Explosion + stock drops by Tesla, SolarCity = $390 million loss

The man is capable of putting it all on the line to start the companies, and you think a 5% loss is something he cares about? Musk is on the long haul game plan, like Amazon was. What will the stock be the day the Morning deal 3 ships? The day the MegaFactor is operational? He is likely happy sitting on his billions.

 

[gavine]

The short answer is C: get into the latest actually available Tesla A.S.A.P. and start enjoying it sooner rather than later. Don't get
caught up in those ooh-it's-really-going-to-be-great-tomorrow-just-gotta-hang-in-there mind games. Tomorrow's always farther
away than you think.

The longer answer is: if you know before you even take delivery that you want to sell it, can't you prearrange a sale with someone such that they're effectively getting a brand-new car from you and reduce the size of the haircut?

Your short answer is longer than your long answer

 

[somnambule]

A.) Cancel order and reorder for a Jan '17 delivery... (assuming 2.0 is announced). Lose $2500 deposit.

B.) Accept car... get $75000 credit (plus not lose $2500 deposit)... trade in for Jan.-Feb '17 delivery. Have not done any research but I am guessing around a $15-20K hair cut... $10K being subsidized by tax credit a deposit retention...no new tax on new car trade in value will be high and only have to pay on tax difference... AND get another fed tax credit on 17 return....

C.) Accept car and just live... cross whatever bridge when it happens.

Isn't B a subset of C? So, for now, you really only have to decide whether to cancel the existing order or not. Whether to trade-in in Jan/Feb or not can be deferred to Jan/Feb when you'll conceivably have a lot more information on what has changed by then and if the haircut is worth it.

As someone who explicitly decided not to wait for 2.0 a couple of months ago, I say go with A. IMO, whatever 2.0 brings, it isn't going to materially change the usefulness of AP. Speaking (typing) just for myself, I'm not going to trust AP to take highway exits for me etc. until it's capable of full autonomy, which isn't happening for a good long while.

I would say that despite what a lot of people say about 2.0, it's more of a incremental change.
The current AP is sufficient for most freeway driving. The new triple cam and the added censor will indeed make the system better but I don't think it will create such a huge difference. I believe 2.0 is mostly aimed at local driving than improving highway/freeway driving. For me, I wouldn't trust AP on local regardless what they claim. It's just way too complicated for cars (at least in LA).

Totally agree with this take. AND if 2.0 adds a censor, I'm not buying another Tesla ever.
Sorry, couldn't help it .

 

[number12]

Isn't B a subset of C? So, for now, you really only have to decide whether to cancel the existing order or not. Whether to trade-in in Jan/Feb or not can be deferred to Jan/Feb when you'll conceivably have a lot more information on what has changed by then and if the haircut is worth it.

As someone who explicitly decided not to wait for 2.0 a couple of months ago, I say go with A. IMO, whatever 2.0 brings, it isn't going to materially change the usefulness of AP. Speaking (typing) just for myself, I'm not going to trust AP to take highway exits for me etc. until it's capable of full autonomy, which isn't happening for a good long while.



Totally agree with this take. AND if 2.0 adds a censor, I'm not buying another Tesla ever.
Sorry, couldn't help it .

You could chose A- cancel?

 

[somnambule]

You could chose A- cancel?

Sorry, meant C.

 

[John Stuckey]

C
Life is short. And the "what ifs" will get you every time.

 

[number12]

C with B still being an option is what I am leaning towards... Surprised there isn't anyone that can chime in with having to "get rid" of their car in 3 months time for whatever reason (upgrade, did not like it, move, etc.) that could let us know what depreciation they faced.

 

[pedriscoll]

Go with C. Tesla is continuing to improve the car weekly. If you wait for the perfect car, you will never pull the trigger. I have had my 85D for 15 months and just missed the 90. However I have had the absolute joy of driving this car for 15 months. Also 2.0 will likely be an incremental improvement. No way will it be full autonomous driving. Even the insanely optimistic Elon has said that is 3-5 years away (in Elon years- real world 10 years) I say go for it. The car you have on order is the best car on the road today.

 

[number12]

Go with C. Tesla is continuing to improve the car weekly. If you wait for the perfect car, you will never pull the trigger. I have had my 85D for 15 months and just missed the 90. However I have had the absolute joy of driving this car for 15 months. Also 2.0 will likely be an incremental improvement. No way will it be full autonomous driving. Even the insanely optimistic Elon has said that is 3-5 years away (in Elon years- real world 10 years) I say go for it. The car you have on order is the best car on the road today.

Not doubting I won't enjoy car.

Unpredictable depreciation curve is only concern.

Again just like missing AP all together like some early adopter S owners.

 

[Shock-On-T]

How about this?
Leave your current order active, and if 2.0 comes out before delivery date then cancel and re-order.

 

[number12]

How childish is this?

Let's say Sept 5 rumor is correct... My build was 9/4-9/7ish. I could have missed 2.0 by 12 hours.

Childish part... Do I go ahead an place another order... Wait for news to be confirmed. If yes plan on canceling original order in leu of second. If no cancel in order week. No harm no foul?

Thus saving 2-3 week wait time on replacement order, and can cancel original order sooner so Tesla can do whatever they need to do with car.

 

[DiamondDave]

I say C, if the car is on its way, enjoy.

Hedging a 2nd order seems like a reasonable way to cut a few days off of the delivery time of a new car if you decide to cancel the original order and lose the $2,500.

In your original analysis, you mentioned taking the $7,500 credit twice. However, that credit will be part of the depreciation of the first car because the second owner won't be able to take it. If I was buying it brand new from you on your delivery day I wouldn't pay more than $7,500 less than the purchase price.

For an idea of depreciation in the first few months, you might take a look at inventory cars with a little mileage on them. This would be your competition, right?

 

[Canuck]

I would only wait for new features if I was already driving a Tesla. Life's far too short not to be driving one today, if you can afford one. I also wouldn't be concerned about depreciation. It's a car, not an investment. It's going to depreciate significantly, whether it be AP1.0 or AP2.0.

Not only do we not know when AP 2.0 is coming out but we don't know what exactly it will entail.

Maybe not exactly, but I thinks it's a pretty safe bet that the new suite will keep the current front-facing radar and add more around the car, likely one in each corner. Additionally, the system will feature a new front-facing triple camera system.

I would say that despite what a lot of people say about 2.0, it's more of a incremental change. The current AP is sufficient for most freeway driving. The new triple cam and the added censor will indeed make the system better but I don't think it will create such a huge difference. I believe 2.0 is mostly aimed at local driving than improving highway/freeway driving. For me, I wouldn't trust AP on local regardless what they claim. I would say 2.0 is more of refining the system than revolutionizing the system. The current AP is a high level 2 and AP 2.0 will probably be a low level 3 at best for a long time.

The current AP, with no camera/radar at eye level, can drive you under a semi-trailer during a momentary lapse of attention. I can't trust a system that only "sees" a few feet off the ground. I know I'm not suppose to trust it, and to pay attention at all times, but the peace of mind that is lost with the lack of another camera/radar at eye level is significant to me. For this reason, AP2.0 for me is not an incremental change but a huge change. I had an AP loaner for a week and I did a lot of highway driving with it, but I just couldn't get my mind past the fact that there's nothing looking out for me at eye level or higher. So I couldn't relax and let myself enjoy it. It really depends on the individual as to whether 2.0 is incremental or significant, and one's ability to put trust in the current capabilities of the hardware. The accident involving the fatality spoke volumes to me. The new hardware will not allow for that type of accident, regardless of the driver's inattentiveness.

I know this is summons and not AP, but it does go to show the limitations of the current hardware:

 

[Kay Kay]

I ordered my MX on July 5 the but waiting for it until Feb 14 ht because of the ver 8 and auto pilot 2.0 and also I want to receive my car on our 27 the marriage anniversary and get 2017.

 

[theslimshadyist]

I ordered my MX on July 5 the but waiting for it until Feb 14 ht because of the ver 8 and auto pilot 2.0 and also I want to receive my car on our 27 the marriage anniversary and get 2017.

I know that 8.0 is around the corner but where did you see that AP 2.0 will be released by your delivery date?

 

[Apricot]

I'm in a the extreme version of OP's situation. Musk is announcing the next AP tomorrow at 11am and likely commenting on AP2 and retrofit. I'm picking up 9am Monday! So if Musk tells us that my car won't be upgradable to AP2 which is coming this year, I will likely cancel my order. I assume this means I will lose on my $2,500 deposit?